The history of mobile digital wireless has seen a tapestry of minuscule change, marketing hype, and under delivery with periodic step changes in capability. The biggest leaps were 1 to 2G (Analogue to Digital) with 2.5G representing a slightly souped up version of 2G. Next came 3G (Multi-Media Support) with 4G providing a little more bandwidth and a few extra features. But 5G is the first system to have an IP base designed to be fully internet compatible. Perhaps equally significant is the realisation that horse trading between 3 & 4G bands cannot deliver 5G and new spectrum has to be made available. So 5G looks set to deliver more change into the mobile space than anything that has gone before. Whilst the future of mobility is hazy (to say the least) we can see Clouds and The Internet of Things developing fast, whilst user devices have somewhat stagnated with laptops, tablets, and a plethora of near identical mobile phones. The few attempts at wearable technology have failed to date whilst medical devices for the home, office, gym and hospital are racing ahead. So the industry faces an uncertain future with WiFi dominating mobile working, wire line running a close second and 3/4G only supporting some 5% of the traffic carried. So, can 5G expand to displace WiFi? Not without micro-cells at the end of every broadband line! It would take a ten fold increase (at least) in the number of cell towers for 5G to make a dent in this market - and that isn’t going to happen! When it comes to many aspects of mobility futures there is no doubt that the marketeers and managers will be proclaiming: “there is no proven market’, but they said that about the lightbulb, radio, TV, telephone and every other technology advance and change! What is clear; there is a latent demand for more bandwidth and a proven case for greater utility and ubiquity, and 5G looks set to provide such a facility, but it cannot do so without new spectrum and more cell sites. Raiding existing 3 and 4G spectrum allocations, or allocating new ‘narrow bands’ (20 - 50 MHz) in the UHF band will not work, we need GHz and not MHz! Where will we find so much available spectrum? Above 30GHz! However, there is far more we can do to exploit the full potential of spread spectrum in regions of high transmission loss due to the resonances of Oxygen and Water molecules (eg 60 and 90 GHz). It is clear that 5G marks a new era in the evolution of wireless, but only if we dare to think and do different to the past.

1. 5Gthe BIG Game
Change r ?
Peter Cochrane
cochrane.org.uk
ca-global.biz

2. what we know for sure ?
In this arena of rapidly changing mobile tech
WiFi dominates data traffic carried ~ 50%
Wired comes a close second ~ 45%
3G / 4G are bit players ~ 5%
Ver y few new mobile tower sites available
Mobile networks are congested
Data traffic off load is vital
Network infill demands customer micro-cells
Copper DSL bandwidth is a limiter
FTTH programmes are scarce
FTTH installs are rare
The Future is
dominated by
SYMMETRIC
S E RV I C E S

3. more of the same but better ?
Where did the innovation go, what has stopped the industry thinking
Constrained market size
Physical limits to network growth
Artificial bandwidth limitations and high costs
The illusion of bandwidth scarcity and limitations

4. unclear what / Who will win !
Looking geek factor
Lack of real utility and RoI
May be part of an evolving PAN ecology
Most likely a meld of health, sensors, computing & comms
An unknown quantity and predicated more by fashion that tech

5. and what else ?
Mobile working is growing fast
BYOD becoming commonplace
Multi-mobile device now the norm
Device interworking now a necessity
Cloud working / storage growing fast
IoT making early entry
Growing
expectation
Device to device networking apps available
Device interworking now a necessity
Shorter
dwell times
Transient
employment
DIY IT + Security
Avid Cloud User

6. aN IoT/CoT Future + Unknowns
• material sourcing
• manufacturing history
• distribution and supply chain
• purchase and ownership details
• application, usage, maintenance, repair
• repurposing, reuse, recycling sequence
• +++
This vision does not scale by
energy demands, functionally,
or economically, but networks
without infrastructure do!
Everything tagged, tracked, on-line (???) and communicating ++

7. 2G << 2.5G << 3G << 4G << 5G
Incremental or leap ?
High on Promise
Low on Delivery
High on Promise
Low on Delivery
The Great
White
Hope
More of the same but slightly better or new thinking
A few tech tweaks
no big changes
Voice + Data
Add Ons
Major new design
voice and data
Integrated
Operation
Data dominated
design IP Based
New Spectrum
Squeezing
more into
the same
Spectrum slicing and
dicing to support 4G
This cannot be fudged
it needs radical thinking
and solutions

8. spectrum
demands
Shrinking cells & demand
for more bandwidth and far
more isolation and reuse
20km
1mm
10mm
100mm
1m
10m
100m
1km
kb/s
Mb/s
Gb/s
Tb/s
UHF
SHF
EHF
AnalogueVoice
Digital Services
IoT
Clouds
IiT
Mns
50 - 250Bn
Device
Numbers
Operating
Frequency
and
Bandwidth
new
Modes
Old thinking will not cut the mustard !
On Chip
On Card
On Shelf

9. A radical view ??
We have no digital radios - only analogue bent to our digital will!
Thinking and doing nothing new will deliver no real value
If the mobile industry is to prosper - there is no option!

10. copper modems for
wireless systems
We took what we new and understood
from a world of narrow band copper &
adapted it to the limitations of wireless

11. bands & channels ARE
an Analogue legacy
The antithesis of digital thinking and
needs born out of the age of the valve,
Morse Code, Telex, and Broadcast

12. a ‘fork lift’ history / legacy
Big masts, big transmitters, big receivers, high power, no mobility
Broadcast dominated, one way communication, long distances,
interference, government controls, regulation, licensing +++

13. ‘fork lift’ today !
Old band, channel, modulation thinking
Operating frequencies are much higher, but
the same old modes persist with interference,
government controls, regulation, licensing +++

14. what might we do
If we assumed a clean sheet of paper
If we went truly digital
If we abandoned bands
If we abandoned channels
If we adapted digital thinking
No licences
No controls
No regulation
No government
Might it lead to a world of

15. AND new demandsBeyond, voice, TXT, browsing and data+
Cloud working
Multi-Cloud working
Things on line/IoT/CoT
Security auto-immunity systems
Networks without infrastructure
All of the above are symmetric, autonomous,
exhibit highly variable bandwidth needs,
dynamic location dependency, mobility
and spontaneous in their demands..

16. Actually it is mostly unused!
City of Chicago study <17%
of commercial spectrum used
the is no spectrum fAmine !

17. spectrum futures
Short range cell and point to point give higher reuse ratios
and BW advantage >> 1,000,000 microwave to Radio
and Infrared to Microwave
Infrared and Microwave enjoy very similar
propagation performance over short distances
Bandwidth and Frequency are the determinant features

18. Water
Oxygen
Water Water
Oxygen
spectrum PAST AND future
The Old World
Analogue Root
Long Distances
Low Bandwidth
Complex Coding
Bands & Channels
Global Constraints
Country Regulated
Spectrum Planning
Licensed Control
Policed Operation
Digital Root
Short Distances
High Bandwidth
Simple Coding
No Bands
No Channels
Licence Codes
No Spectrum Plan
The New World

19. band / channel wastage
The signal space is mostly unoccupied - efficiency of use << 10%
960
Operator 1 Operator 2 Operator 3
MHz
W/m2
µ
950940
0.01
0.001
0.1
100
10
1
960

20. s p e c t r u m f u t u r e s
dBm
-40
-60
-80
-100
-120
-30
-50
-70
-90
-110
Bands and channels kill spread efficiencies
We can tr y to
continue on
this path
Or we can adopt ‘massive spreads and
operate below the thermal noise level

21. S/N dB
BW Hz
Duration
T seconds Information transmitted over a channel expressed as a volumetric
function of S/N, BW and Time - aka Claude Shannon 1945/46
I = B.T log2(1 + k.S/N)
I ~ B.T.K.S/NdB
vv
Back to basics!
Spread Spectrum allows
us to fill this volume !
The theoretical limit for
a channel can also be
applied to a band !
What is theoretically possible ? By the application of a
little engineer ing
licence !!

22. S/N dB
BW Hz
Duration
T seconds
For real time communication we can
in general only trade BW and S/N, but
for non-real time we can also include
T as a third variable….
An often forgotten trade off!
The same information transmitted in different modes of S/N, BW and T

23. actuality - city location
Sub-optimal (grossly inefficient) signal space occupancy
BandWidth
S/N
t
Signal space visibly available in
every dimension of channel and
band - to be used/exploited by
Spread Spectrum across as wide
a frequency range as possible…

24. E VE N M o r e R a d i c a l
Why apply the artificial limits of banding when there is no need?
Water
Oxygen
Water Water
Oxygen
60GHz Band = 7 GHz
57 - 64 = 7GHz
50 - 300 = 250GHz
50 - 300 GHz could be
used with occupancy
dynamically determined by
application and distance -
coding shaped spectrum to
occupy the signal space to
maximise usage…

25. G r e a t e r t o l e r a n c e t o p h a s e n o i s e
Simpler synch/training sequences
Greater interference immunity
Simpler modulation/coding
Better spread efficiency
Greater adaptability
Less overall power
Faster acquisition
Higher bit rates
Higher utility
Better S/N
Advantage sans bands, channels and controls
m a s s i v e s p r e a d s
Lower energy demands = smaller batteries / longer up times

26. existenCe theorem
Commercial 60GHz products offering > 99.999% up time
60GHz Band = 57 - 64 GHz

27. 60GHz Electronics
Many of the base components necessary are now
available in an experimental/pre-production form
and we can concentrate on the design and
system engineering detail…
Not SciFi and technology - just engineering

28. c h a l l e n g e s t o c o m e !
BlueTooth
Short Range
Device to Device
Device to Cloud
WiFi/WiMax
Medium Range
WLAN/Cloud
3, 4, 5, 6 G
Long Range
Device to Net
Device to Cloud
SatCom
Broadcast
Conflicted technologies,
integrated and intelligent
security systems embedded
into all products and all components
Mix of narrow / wideband, short / long reach, modulation, coding

29. antenna futures
Fractal designs have been the great white hope
for unified antennas spanning BlueTooth, WiFi,
3G, 4G - but they have not lived up to their
early promise - as yet !
A war for mobile device real estate

30. what is our actual mission here ?
“The maximal exploitation of the EM Spectrum to the
advantage of Man and Machine for the purposes of
communication, sensing, manipulation, and processing”
“And to exploit the ‘spectrum space’ to best advantage
in every dimension including performance,
sustainability and longevity”

31. spectrum futures
Thank You
COCHRANE
a s s o c i a t e s
cochrane.org.uk