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TRUTH, SITUATION, & CONTEXT AWARENESS

We are engaged in an exponentially growing cyber war that we are visibly losing. Within the next 3 years it has been estimated that the global cost will equal, or overtake, the UK GDP, and it is clear that our defences are inadequate and often ineffective. Malware and ransomer-ware continue to extort more money, and cause damage and inconvenience to individuals, organisations and society, whilst hacker groups, criminals and rogue states continue to innovate and maintain their advantage. At the same time, our defences are subverted and rendered ineffective as we operate in a reactive and prescriptive, after the fact, mode with no foresight or anticipation. In any war it is essential to know and understand as much about the enemy as possible, it is also necessary to establish the truth and validity of any situation or development. Doing this in the cyber domain is orders of magnitude more difficult than the real world, but some of the relevant tools are now available or at an advanced stage of development. For example; fully automated fact checkers and truth engines have been demonstrated, whilst situational awareness technologies are commercially available. However, what is missing is some level of context assessment on a continual basis. Without this we will continue to be ‘blind-sided’ by the actions and developments of the attackers as they maintain their element of surprise along every line of innovation. What do we need? In short ; a Context Engine that continually monitors networks, servers, routers, machines, devices and people for anomalous behaviours that flag pending attacks as behavioural deviations that are generally easy to detect. In the case of attacker groups we have observed precursor events and trends in network activity days ahead of some big offensive. However, this requires a shift in the defenders thinking and operations away for the reactive and short term, to the long term continual monitoring, data collection and analysis in order to establish threat assessments on a real time. The behavioural analysis of people, networks and ITC, is at the core of our ‘Context Engine’ solution which completes the triangle of: Truth; Situation; Context Awareness to provide defenders with a fuller and transformative picture. Most of the known precursor elements of this undertaken have been studied in some depth, with some behavioural elements identified on real networks and some physical situations. The unknown can only add more accuracy!

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T r u t h


Situation


Context


Awareness
P r o f P e t e r C o c h r a n e O B E
w w w. p e t e r c o c h r a n e . c o m
Russian submarine Captain, Marko Ramius, is planning
to defect with all his officers, and to gift The Red October
to the US in order to prevent a nuclear war
SUB-PLOT: He lost his wife due to the medical negligence of a doctor who
was excused and the communist party simply because he was the son of
an important soviet political officer 

Ever since, Marko blamed the government and spent 

his time at sea while scheming about defecting
T r u t h
S i t u a t i o n
C o n t e x t
R E A L I T Y D R A M A T I S E D
H u n t f o r t h e R e d O c t o b e r ( 1 9 9 0 )
Tom Clancy Novel - Thought to be
Based on the “Mutiny on the
Storozhevoy”
D e at h & D i s a s t e r


W h e r e d o t h e y c o m e f r o m ?
- From a direction you are not looking
- By a mechanism you didn’t anticipate
- At a time that is really damn inconvenient!
B U T :
I f w e k n e w t h e t r u t h
I f w e u n d e r s t o o d t h e s i t u a t i o n
I f w e c o u l d s e e t h e f u l l c o n t e x t
M i g h t w e a v o i d a p e n d i n g c a t a c l y s m ?
“Sometimes your greatest strength can emerge as a weakness 

if the context changes” 

Harsha Bhogle
“I do not fear truth. I welcome it. 

But I wish all of my facts to be in their proper context” 

Gordon B. Hinckley
TRUTH, SITUATION, CONTEX


A l l n e c e s s a r y f o r a s u r e d e c i s i o n
When uncertainty prevails


W e t h e n r e l y o n i n s t i n c t & e x p e r i e n c e
“Information is the resolution of uncertainty” 

Claude Shannon (Founder of information theory 1946)
“What we observe is not nature
itself, but nature exposed to our
method of questioning” 

Werner Heisenberg
Captain, Marko Ramius and his o
ffi
cers are planning to
defect and gift The Red October to the US to prevent a
nuclear war.
As they leave port and submerge 

only Ramius knows the exact
the precise
the full

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TRUTH, SITUATION, & CONTEXT AWARENESS

  • 1. T r u t h Situation Context Awareness P r o f P e t e r C o c h r a n e O B E w w w. p e t e r c o c h r a n e . c o m
  • 2. Russian submarine Captain, Marko Ramius, is planning to defect with all his officers, and to gift The Red October to the US in order to prevent a nuclear war SUB-PLOT: He lost his wife due to the medical negligence of a doctor who was excused and the communist party simply because he was the son of an important soviet political officer Ever since, Marko blamed the government and spent his time at sea while scheming about defecting T r u t h S i t u a t i o n C o n t e x t R E A L I T Y D R A M A T I S E D H u n t f o r t h e R e d O c t o b e r ( 1 9 9 0 ) Tom Clancy Novel - Thought to be Based on the “Mutiny on the Storozhevoy”
  • 3. D e at h & D i s a s t e r W h e r e d o t h e y c o m e f r o m ? - From a direction you are not looking - By a mechanism you didn’t anticipate - At a time that is really damn inconvenient! B U T : I f w e k n e w t h e t r u t h I f w e u n d e r s t o o d t h e s i t u a t i o n I f w e c o u l d s e e t h e f u l l c o n t e x t M i g h t w e a v o i d a p e n d i n g c a t a c l y s m ?
  • 4. “Sometimes your greatest strength can emerge as a weakness if the context changes” Harsha Bhogle “I do not fear truth. I welcome it. But I wish all of my facts to be in their proper context” Gordon B. Hinckley TRUTH, SITUATION, CONTEX A l l n e c e s s a r y f o r a s u r e d e c i s i o n
  • 5. When uncertainty prevails W e t h e n r e l y o n i n s t i n c t & e x p e r i e n c e “Information is the resolution of uncertainty” Claude Shannon (Founder of information theory 1946) “What we observe is not nature itself, but nature exposed to our method of questioning” Werner Heisenberg
  • 6. Captain, Marko Ramius and his o ffi cers are planning to defect and gift The Red October to the US to prevent a nuclear war. As they leave port and submerge only Ramius knows the exact the precise the full
  • 7. T r u t h S i t u a t i o n C o n t e x t P e n t a g o n B r i e f i n g D a n g e r o u s l a c k o f u n d e r s t a n d i n g J a c k R y a n ( A n a l y s t ) b r i e f s T h e J o i n t C h i e f s t h a t T h e R e d O c t o b e r h a d s a i l e d o u t o f h a r b o u r a n d s h o r t l y a f t e r > 5 0 R u s s i a n s u b m a r i n e s l e f t p o r t a t s p e e d h e a d i n g o u t i n t o t h e N o r t h A t l a n t i c . I n a d d i t i o n s o m e 2 8 s u r f a c e s h i p s h a d b e e n o b s e r v e d t o b e f i r i n g u p t h e i r e n g i n e s i n p r e p a r a t i o n t o s a i l . N o c o n c l u s i o n s c o u l d b e d r a w n , b u t t h e t r u t h a n d s i t u a t i o n a r e a c c u r a t e l y d e t e r m i n e d , w h i l s t t h e r e i s n o c o n t e x t d a t a !
  • 8. P e n ta g o n B r i e f i n g J a c k R y a n h a s a n e p i p h a n y T r u t h S i t u a t i o n C o n t e x t L a t e r d u r i n g t h e s a m e g a t h e r i n g J a c k c o m e s u p w i t h a n a l t e r n a t i v e t o a n a l l o u t a t t a c k o r s o m e f o r m o f m i l i t a r y a g g r e s s i o n . H e p o s i t s t h a t R a m i u s m i g h t j u s t b e t r y i n g t o d e f e c t . T h i s i s c o n s i d e r e d a b s u r d b y o n e o f t h e g e n e r a l s a n d t r e a t e d w i t h d e r i s i o n . H o w e v e r , J a c k h a s m e t R a m i u s a n d s t u d i e d h i m i n d e p t h - a n d h e h a s p l a n t e d a m e m e t h a t h a p p e n s t o b e c o r r e c t a n d t h e b a s i s f o r a d i f f e r e n t s t r a t e g y & c o u r s e o f a c t i o n .
  • 9. R U S S I A N S U B T e r F U G E T r y i n g t o d e s t r o y R e d O c t o b e r T r u t h S i t u a t i o n C o n t e x t T r u t h S i t u a t i o n C o n t e x t T h e R u s s i a n a m b a s s a d o r a p p r o a c h e s h i s U S c o u n t e r p a r t t o s u g g e s t t h a t R a m i u s h a s g o n e r o g u e a n d t h e y n e e d U S h e l p t o h u n t a n d d e s t r o y T h e R e d O c t o b e r. T h i s i s n o t t r u e a n d t h e R u s s i a n d o n o t k n o w w h a t t h e s i t u a t i o n i s , b u t t h e y d o h a v e a h e a d s u p o n t h e c o n t e x t a s R a m i u s n o t i f i e d t h e m a n d d e c l a r e d h i s i n t e n t ! T h e U S a m b a s s a d o r k n o w s t h i s i s a l l a l i e a n d s t a r t s t o t h i n k t h a t J a c k m a y b e r i g h t , a n d h e p l a y s a l o n g t o t r y a n d g a i n m o r e i n s i g h t s . S o h e h a s a g o o d i d e a w h a t t h e t r u t h m i g h t b e , a n d t h e s i t u a t i o n i s v e r y c l e a r, b u t t h e c o n t e x t i s i n c o m p l e t e …
  • 10. T r u t h S i t u a t i o n C o n t e x t M e a n w h i l e A T S E A A d a n g e r o u s c o n f l i c t u n f o l d s H e h a s t h e R e d O c t o b e r - a p e r c e i v e d t h r e a t - i n h i s s i g h t s a n d d e t e r m i n e s t o a t t a c k w i t h o u t a f u l l p i c t u r e a n d u n d e r s t a n d i n g … . b u t J a c k R y a n i s n o w o n b o a r d … T h i s U S h u n t e r - k i l l e r s u b m a r i n e c o m m a n d e r h a s a c l e a r m i s s i o n & m a n d a t e : 1 ) To p r o t e c t h i s v e s s e l & c r e w 2 ) To p r o t e c t t h e U S A 3 ) To a c t w i t h a u t o n o m y i n p u r s u i t o f 1 & 2
  • 11. T H E B I G G E R P I C T U R E P u b l i s h e d e v i d e n c e o f > 1 5 n e a r m i s s e s “ I n c o m p l e t e o r w r o n g i n f o r m a t i o n , c o m m u n i c a t i o n & p r o t o c o l f a i l s , h u m a n a n d m a c h i n e e r r o r s , a c c i d e n t s a n d f r e a k c o n d i t i o n s h a v e s e e n n e a r m i s s e s f o r t u n a t e l y a v e r t e d b y t h e a c t i o n s o f o n e o r t w o t h i n k i n g h u m a n s ”
  • 12. T H E B I G G E R P I C T U R E P u b l i s h e d e v i d e n c e o f > 1 5 n e a r m i s s e s “ I n c o m p l e t e o r w r o n g i n f o r m a t i o n , c o m m u n i c a t i o n & p r o t o c o l f a i l s , h u m a n a n d m a c h i n e e r r o r s , a c c i d e n t s a n d f r e a k c o n d i t i o n s h a v e s e e n n e a r m i s s e s f o r t u n a t e l y a v e r t e d b y t h e a c t i o n s o f o n e o r t w o t h i n k i n g h u m a n s ” W e a r e h e r e t o d a y n o t b y d e s i g n b u t b y a n e x t r a o r d i n a r y r u n o f g o o d l u c k T H E L I K E L I H O O D O F A C A T A S T R O P h E A C C E L E R A T E S a s c o m p l e x i t y g r o w s S O O N E R O R L A T E R A h U M A N / M A C H I N E M I S T A K E O R a M A D M A N W I L L l i k e l y s e e G L O B A L c a r n a g e
  • 13. Cyber-Info War Nuclear-Warfare Bio-Chemical Warfare W a r f a r e The wider perspective Scale of Potential Devastation Potential Depth of Penetration Geographical Metaphysical Technological Psychological Ecological Biological Physical Virtual Real Total Extinction Trigger Event Catalyst Land Sea Air Space Cyber Information
  • 14. Cyber-Info War Nuclear-Warfare Bio-Chemical Warfare W a r f a r e The wider perspective Scale of Potential Devastation Potential Depth of Penetration Geographical Metaphysical Technological Psychological Ecological Biological Physical Virtual Real Total Extinction Trigger Event Catalyst Land Sea Air Space Cyber Information THERE IS ONLY WAR AND EVERY DOMAIN IS INTERCONNECTED GOVERNMENTS CAN NO LONGER DEFEND THEIR POPULATIONS
  • 15. C O M P L E X I T Y G r o w i n g C h a l l e n g e
  • 16. C O M P L E X I T Y G r o w i n g C h a l l e n g e COMPLEXITY AND SPEED OF CHANGE NOW WAY BEYOND HUMAN CAPABILITIES TEAMS OF NETWORKED PEOPLE CANNOT SOLVE THE PROBLEMS IN THE 
 TIME AVAILABLE DISTRIBUTED DATA 
 AND COGNITIVE BIAS 
 OF INDIVIDUALS IS 
 DISABLING
  • 17. T r u t h S i t u a t i o n C o n t e x t T r u t h S i t u a t i o C o n t e T r u t h S i t u a t i o n C o n t e x T r u t h S i t u a t i o n C o n t e x t T r u t h S i t u a t i o n C o n t e x t T r u t h S i t u a t i o n C o n t e x t T r u t h S i t u a t i o n C o n t e x t T r i u m v i r at e o f r i s k T h e t e c h n o l o g i e s a r e t o h a n d TRUTH S I T U A T I O N A W A R E N E S S C O N T E X T A W A R E N E S S T r u t h S i t u a t i o n C o n t e x t T r u t h S i t u a t i o n C o n t e x t T r u t h S i t u a t i o n C o n t e x t T r u t h S i t u a t i o n C o n t e x t T r u t h S i t u a t i o n C o n t e x t T r u t h S i t u a t i o n C o n t e x t T r u t h S i t u a t i o n C o n t e x t
  • 18. A T R U T H E N G I N E D e m o n s t r a t e d e l e m e n t s “We have a complete design and encouraging demonstrations with rapidly engineered AI combined with manual computations”
  • 19. S I T U A T I O N A W A R E N E SS A t w h a t e f f i c a c y ? C o m m e r c i a l l y a v a i l a b l e f o r d e f e n c e , g o v s e r v i c e s , i n d u s t r y
  • 20. C O N T E X T A W A R E N E SS M o s t l y l a c k i n g “ B U T w e h a v e a v i s i o n / d e s i g n w i t h m u c h o f t h e t e c h t o h a n d t o e n g i n e e r a n a u t o m a t e d s o l u t i o n ”
  • 21. B E H A V I O U R A L A N A L Y S I S P o w e r f u l / i m m a t u r e N o r m a l d a i l y o p e r a t i o n A b n o r m a l r e q u i r e s i n v e s t i g a t i o n S n o w d e n a t w o r k S t r a n g e w i r e l e s s a c t i v i t y
  • 22. B E H A V I O U R A L A N A L Y S I S P o w e r f u l / i m m a t u r e N o r m a l d a i l y o p e r a t i o n A b n o r m a l r e q u i r e s i n v e s t i g a t i o n S n o w d e n a t w o r k S t r a n g e w i r e l e s s a c t i v i t y PEOPLE, MACHINES, DEVICES, THINGS, NETS ARE HABITUAL DEVIATIONS FURNISH INDICATORS & CLUES 
 AHEAD OF ACTIONS
  • 23. S O L U T I O N S P A C E T r u t h , S i t u a t i o n & C o n t e x t Deep observation & analysis gives a fuller picture of what has/is happen(ed/ing) Adding the wider context to models reveals potential unknowns & contingencies Constantly computing the likely outcomes and adjusting with actuality…
  • 24. S O L U T I O N S P A C E T r u t h , S i t u a t i o n & C o n t e x t Deep observation & analysis gives a fuller picture of what has/is happen(ed/ing) Adding the wider context to models reveals potential unknowns & contingencies Constantly computing the likely outcomes and adjusting with actuality… NORROW SITUATIONAL 
 MODELLING IS NOT 
 ENOUGH THERE ARE NO SIMPLE /SINGULAR SOLUTIONS TO COMLEX PROBLEMS INTEGRATING DATA INFO, EXPERIENCE [{AIS} NOW ESSENTIAL HUMAN & MACHINE COGNATIVE BIAS MUST BE MINIMISED
  • 25. M O R E M E C H A N I S M S N a t u r a l , M a n - M a d e , S p u r i o u s ARTIFICIAL (Mankind) Global Warming Pollution Weather Eco-Fail War NATURAL Astronomical Geological
 Ecological Biological Climatic “None of this is linear or isolated - it all an unpredictable & combinatorial threat landscape of irreversible hits that in fl ict a dent in the well being and survivability of future generations” “No biological entity can survive in it’s own waste material” “Reversing global warming will not see the climate go back to a 1950s state. it will go to some new stability point”
  • 26. S I M P L E M I S T A K E S A R E A N O T H E R M A T T E R