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A p p l i e d S c i e n c e
E n g i n e e r i n g S o l u t i o n s N o M a t t e r W h a t !
S Y S T E M S
P r o f P e t e r C o c h r a n e O B E D S c
w w w. p e t e r c o c h r a n e . c o m
"Simple can be harder than complex. You have to work
hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple"
Steve Jobs
"Global terrorism is extreme both in its lack of realistic
goals and in its cynical exploitation of the vulnerability
of complex systems"
Jurgen Habermas
"Today the network of relationships linking our species
to the biosphere is so complex that all aspects a
ff
ect all
others to an extraordinary degree. We should be
studying the whole system, because no gluing together
of partial studies of a complex nonlinear system can
give a good idea of the behaviour of the whole"
Murray Gell-Mann
COMPLEXITY
O u r b i g g e s t c h a l l e n g e
C l o s e 2 N D
M u l t i d i s c i p l i n a r y
P r o b l e m s S t o c h a s t i c /
"Simple can be harder than complex. You have to work
hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple"
Steve Jobs
"Global terrorism is extreme both in its lack of realistic
goals and in its cynical exploitation of the vulnerability
of complex systems"
Jurgen Habermas
"Today the network of relationships linking our species
to the biosphere is so complex that all aspects a
ff
ect all
others to an extraordinary degree. We should be
studying the whole system, because no gluing together
of partial studies of a complex nonlinear system can
give a good idea of the behaviour of the whole"
Murray Gell-Mann
COMPLEXITY
O u r b i g g e s t c h a l l e n g e
C l o s e 2 N D
M u l t i d i s c i p l i n a r y
P r o b l e m s S t o c h a s t i c /
‘System’ Definition
Can we describe exactly what we mean ?
“This singularly simple question directs us to an
ongoing (endless) philosophical debate that is
less than helpful for engineers and scientists”
We need something both meaningful and
concise that affords us sufficient licence
to assist our understanding in designing
and building machines and networks
that invoke positive advantage and
progress at minimal risk employing
progressively less energy & material
“A group of interacting, interrelated, or interdependent
elements forming a complex whole”
The most concise de
fi
nition I can
fi
nd but not entirely satisfactory
for any engineering purposes…
literature
Thousands of publications
* The whole may be simple, complicated or complex, and there
may or may not be any interdependence !
Functionally related groups of elements, especially:
- Human body regarded as a functional physiological unit
- Organisms as a whole, especially with regard to vital processes/functions
- Groups of physiologically or anatomically complementary organs or parts
- Interacting mechanical or electrical components dispersed or local
- Networks and channels, for communication, travel, or distribution
- Interrelated computer software, hardware, and data transmission devices
Correct(ish) but inconcise, incomplete, and also unsuitable:
literature
Thousands of discourses
An organised set of interrelated ideas or principles
- Social, economic, or political organisational forms
- Naturally occurring groups of objects or phenomena: the solar system.
- Objects or phenomena grouped together for classi
fi
cation or analysis
- Condition of harmonious, orderly interaction
- Organised and coordinated method; ie procedures
literature
Thousands of discourses
Correct(ish) but inconcise, incomplete, and also unsuitable:
‘Systems take energy, matter, information, and transforms their
nature’
* Ergo: All Systems are Entropic
Not Published
My tight/sufficient (?) definition
A W I D E R L E N S
Only art, science, and engineering
Divisions: Mathematics, Physics Chemistry, Biology, Art are all artificial silos,
and so are Electrical, Mechanical, Software, Chemical, Civil Engineering et al
introduced sometime after the reformation; and whilst they accelerated our
progress & understanding they now sees widespread limited thinking and a
lack of mutual understanding that is often disadvantageous
Galileo
Galilei
Michael
Angelo
Leonardo
da Vinci
S O L U T I O N
Select specialist teams
Taking an interest in every system known to mankind pays dividends in
providing us with insights and challenging concepts and occasionally , really
useful results...
…we no longer design, deploy and operate our systems in isolation...we live
in a world of the natural and unnatural, the evolved, designed, and
designoid …that in general are connected to interact
...the way they connect coexist and interact is important especially when life
dependency and mission critical issues are at stake !
An essential PRACTICE
For completeness of enquiry we need a better radar
Systems are never stronger than their weakest element
Systems are never simpler than their most complex element
Systems are always more complex than their most complex elements
G E N E R A L A X I O M S
For individual & connected/networked systems
• Complex systems never get easier to characterise
• Complex systems always make the simple more complex
• Complex systems are never rendered simpler - without incurring costs !
• Simple systems tend toward being rendered more complex !
• Simple systems tend to get more di
ffi
cult to characterise
• Simple systems don’t make the complex simpler
• There are no simple solutions to complex problems
• There is a huge di
ff
erence between complicated and complex systems
G E N E R A L A X I O M S
For individual & connected/networked systems
• Simple systems tend to migrate toward complication
• Complicated systems tend to migrate toward complexity
• Complex systems can comprise simple and/or complicated elements
• Entropy always follows the direction (1, 2, 3) and never the reverse
• The converse of the construct (1, 2, 3) seldom occurs - if ever !
• Cluster of simple/complicated systems can become complex a whole
Our lack of understanding never deterred us from exploiting anything, but
we have often witnessed some pretty big mistakes/fails in the process!
G E N E R A L A X I O M S
For individual & connected/networked systems
Mother Natures propensity for Simple Systems resulting in Complex Outcomes
WHAT WE generally observe
A natural & designed world complexity - simplicity inversion
Humans propensity for Complex Systems resulting in Simple Outcomes
WHAT WE generally observe
A natural & designed world complexity - simplicity inversion
Dominant
System
Trend
WHAT WE KNOW FOR SURE
We cannot manage 21C societies with 17C thinking/systems
V I S I B L E T R E N D S
Irreversible progression to complexity
DESIGNED EVOLVED
Well behaved Out of control
Well Understood Knowledge Gap
TOOLS MODELS
Physical Laws Emulation
Low Combinatorics
Certainty the Norm
High Predictability
High Combinatorics
Uncertainty the Norm
Emergent Behaviour
Mathematics Simulations
Plasma
Biology
Physics
Weather
Universe
Genetics
Ecologies
Chemistry
Proteomics
Combustion
Earthquakes
Global Warming
Immune Systems
Quantum Mechanics
National Security
Search Engines
Globalisation
Management
Mobile Nets
Leadership
Intelligence
Economics
Nano-Tech
Bio-Tech
Con
fl
ict
M&A
COMPLEX
Telephone
Car Engine
Jet Turbine
MRI Scanner
Rocket Motor
Air Conditioner
Server Farm
Computer
Lap-top
Tablet
Radio
TV
COMPLICATED
Long Bow
Catapult
Pulley
Canal
Mill
SIMPLE
Drill
Lathe
Bicycle
Ratchet
g e n e r a l i t i e s
Sureties, actualities, challenges
Digital
Analogue
Hybrid Analogue//Digital
Our knowledge base
Our understanding
Made by mankind
Made by machine
Our species survival
Our planets survival
Machine intelligence
Symbiosis necessary
Challenges to be addressed
dominant
remains a vital core
ubiquitous & growing
advancing and accelerating
limited by our technologies
insu
ffi
cient for our populous survival
vital to our survival and prosperity
depends upon good systems *****
depends upon good stewardship/tech
overtaking us in many areas
man-machine partnership underway *****
formidable but interesting and vital *****
BEWARE
Not so obvious exceptions
Quantum Computing is essentially analogue
AI is migrating toward a mix of analogue and digital
Modern radio systems are a mix of analogue and digital
Optical
fi
bre systems are a mix of analogue and digital
Robots are a mix of analogue and digital
Sensors are a mix of analogue and digital
VR and AR a mix of analogue and digital
Generalities
All systems share similar models
mathematical/analysis frameworks
Electrical, Electronic, Mechanical, Civil Engineering & Physics share the same
or very similar equations sets…’know one and you know the other’
Differences: Chemistry, Biology, Sociology,
Information/Computing Networks Systems
tend to be observed through a different
lens but still share many similarities
Generalities
All systems share similar models
mathematical/analysis frameworks
‘SIMPLEst’ SYSTEMS
Lie within the grasp of one human mind & hands Designed top down
Always predictable
Easy to specify
Easy to design
Easy to model
Easy to realise
Easy to control
Easy to operate
Do not evolve
Do not adapt
Unchanging
Stable/well behaved
Essentially Linear
Laws of physics apply
Mathematics works
Linear behaviour
Predictable
Conceived, designed and produced by one human
S I M P L E S Y S T E M S
Within the span of ‘a’ human mind or team Designed top down
Always predictable
Easy to specify
Easy to design
Easy to model
Easy to realise
Easy to control
Easy to operate
Do not evolve
Do not adapt
Unchanging
Stable/well behaved
Essentially Linear
Laws of physics apply
Mathematics works
Linear behaviour
Predictable
Di
ffi
cult to understand
Designed top down
Di
ffi
cult to specify
Di
ffi
cult to design
Hard to model
Hard to realise
Hard to control
Hard to operate
Seldom non-linear
Generally predictable
Do not evolve - stable
Stable/well behaved
Essentially Linear
Laws of physics apply
Maths ‘mostly’ works(ish)
Unnatural materials required
Computer modelling a necessity
Complicated SYSTEMS
A deep understanding beyond the grasp of ‘a’ human
Complicated
Sea skimming missile detection
Time of flight ~ 10 - 20s
Complicated
Sea skimming missile detection
Time of flight ~ 10 - 20s
C O M P L E x
The concatenation of large numbers
of simple and/or complicated sub-
systems can lead to unpredicted
non-linearities and thus surprises -
unexpected emergent behaviours
due to the whole becoming complex
Complex SYSTEMS
Global Air Traffic - highly unpredictable
exhibits continual adaptation aka life!
Complex SYSTEMS
Global Shipping - highly unpredictable
exhibits continual adaptation aka life!
Complex SYSTEMS
Global Internet Traffic - beyond prediction
exhibits continual adaptation aka life!
Initial/intuitive top down design
Evolution rapidly dominates
Modelling a major challenge
Accurate speci
fi
cation hard
Fundamentally stochastic
Design; a tough challenge
Realisation is easy/hard
Operation is easy/hard
Control is easy/hard
Non-linear/chaotic
Complex SYSTEMS
Beyond human wisdoms & mental abilities
Dominated by many non-linear elements
“Established wisdoms do not apply
Mathematics non-contributor
Emergent behaviours/rule
No general laws”
“NOTE: These are ‘generalised comments
and there are always opportunities for
exceptions”
Machine DESIGNED
We have entered a realm where we have no clue!
AI + AL derived AL evolution
Impossible (?) to understand
Seeded from the bottom up
Accurate spec impossible
Outcome unpredictable
Beyond (?) modelling
Very easy to realise
No human control
Autonomous code
‘Always’ non-linear
Only modest compute power
Good network connectivity
Maths nears irrelevancy
Now ‘breeding’ malware
Stability
Two extremes/bounds
Conditionally Stable
Conditionally Unstable
Only becomes unstable when
there is some system failure
Under any and all conditions
Output
Input
Linear : NON-LINEAR
Confusing and often confused
These are all non-linear
responses as they give
wildly di
ff
erent outputs
for the same input every
time
These are all linear
responses in that an
input gives the same
output every time
Established wisdoms do not apply
Mathematics non-contributor
Emergent behaviours rule
No general laws
THESE DAYS HAVE Long GONE
We a r e n o w m o s t d e f i n i t e l y i n a m a c h i n e a g e
a n d e r a d i c a t i n g p e o p l e f r o m t h e c o n t r o l l o o p
i s a n u r g e n t n e c e s s i t y
In a simple
disconnected
world... ...we can
address
problems
in isolation
...and simple
solutions
mostly work
In a complex
connected
world...
...we have
to consider
the whole
...simple
solutions
never work
AI
...modelling,
simulation,
decision
support
...BIG
DATA
...everything
online, and
networked
...a living
organism...
R E A L I T Y
Simple is now a rarity
AL
…evolved
designoid
solutions
BIGGEST WORRY
The majority do not comprehend
Simple linear and
a well behaved arena:
intuition, experience, &
wisdoms mostly worked
well and were adequate
across the most societies
A universe characterised by a
limited range of relationships,
concepts and equations that
were readily understood
Non-linear, complex and
highly unpredictable arena:
intuition, experience, wisdoms
are mostly unreliable at best &
highly dangerous at worse
A universe characterised by
a wide range of immature and
developing concepts/computer
models not readily understood
by lay people, politicians, +++
PAST TO DAY
FUTURE
“Economics & market forces are failing
Ignorance and bigotry on the rise
Politics & democracy is in peril“
LEMMING LIKE
Doing what they thing is right
Compounding
Fourier + Laplace - time and frequency
g(t)
f(t)❋g(t)
f(t)
F(ω)
G(ω)
F(ω).G(ω)
Simple Multiplication
Complicated Convolution
Laplace forces integrals to converge - best used on transients signals
Fourier can see integrals to diverge - best used on repetitive signals
BASIC SYSTEM
Nomenclature - Methodology
Frequency
Domain
Descriptor
Time
Domain
Descriptor
This is the original analogue version we
have now rendered discrete and digital -
Digital Fourier/Laplace Transform
Time
Domain
Frequency
Domain
Real
Mathematical Abstraction
Reality CHECK
Temporal
Function
Frequency
Function
Frequency
Function
Temporal
Function
TRANSFORMATIONS
Difficult problems rendered easy(ier)
Fourier: time frequency domain
=
Laplace: time frequency
domain transient signals
Temporal
Function
Frequency
Function
Frequency
Function
Temporal
Function
Applicable to time and
s p a c e , h e a t
fl
o w ,
mechanical systems,
probability theory +++
TRANSFORMATIONS
Difficult problems rendered easy(ier)
Fourier: time frequency domain
=
Laplace: time frequency
domain transient signals
TRANSFORMATIONS
Analogue and Digital/Discrete) formulations
ENVIRONMENT?
s(t) h(t) o(t)
Other systems of the same or differing type may be sharing the same
space or some part of it, and therefore there can be many obvious and
hidden opportunities for aliasing....
Air
Water
Earth
Machines
Lifeforms
Fluids
Solids
Chemicals
Radiation
Information
Chemical
Physical
Information/Data Processing
Mathematical
Natural
Unnatural
Biological
Electrical
Electronic
Mechanical
Computational
Optical
Acoustic
Organic
Inorganic
Life forms
+++
What’s in THE BOX ?
What are the limits to what we describe and de
fi
ne
s(t) h(t) o(t)
What can we describe and de
fi
ne
Optical
Acoustic
+++
+++
Life forms
o(t) = h[s(t)] = h(s) for ease of notation
o = a + bt + ct2 + dt3 et4 + ft5 is the largest polynomial we
can solve for very limited and
narrow range of cases
In the absence of a closed form solution we often reduced to using polynomial or some
other form of approximate descriptor
AND the output ?
s(t) h(t) o(t)
In the general case it impacts/changes the
environment and the input and is often a
grossly non-linear series of loops
e(t)
f(t)
FEEDBACK & FEEDBACK ?
s(t) h(t) o(t)
FB o(t)
FF s(t)
Noise reduction loop
-ve FeedBack induces stability
+ve FeedBack induces instability
Mathematical tractability reduced by the # loops
Stability and response
shaping loop
General SYSTEM traits
s(t) h(t) o(t)
s1(t)
s2(t)
s3(t)
si(t)
o1(t)
ok(t)
o3(t)
o2(t)
hi(t)
General SYSTEM traits
s(t) h(t) o(t)
s1(t)
s2(t)
s3(t)
si(t)
o1(t)
ok(t)
o3(t)
o2(t)
hi(t)
Simple
Singular
Linear
Complicated
/Complex
Multi - I/O
Linear
Non-Linear
In general can be
fully tested and
characterised
In general cannot
be fully tested
and characterised
All known, understood, well described and
characterised, bounded, and well behaved
with causality preserved
Contained/bounded in/by some
known, or well de
fi
ned,
environment/conditions
Simple System - Key Features 1
s(t) h(t) o(t)
s(t) = Stimulus
h(t) = Operator
o(t) = Output }
s(t) and o(t) originate
and terminate within the
environment
Response matches need
Symbiotic with the environment
Predictable, reliable, with a fast recovery time
Upgrades and changes not traumatic or risky
Shocks are not terminal or unduly debilitating
Reproducible, easy to deploy and maintain/repair/replace
Simple System - Key Features II
s(t) h(t) o(t)
Response matches need
Symbiotic with the environment
Predictable, reliable, with a fast recovery time
Upgrades and changes not traumatic or risky
Shocks are not terminal or unduly debilitating
Reproducible, easy to deploy and maintain/repair/replace
Simple System - Key Features II
s(t) h(t) o(t)
Sometimes we cannot satisfy this wish list 100%
All known, understood, well described and
characterised, bounded, and well behaved
with causality preserved
Contained/bounded in/by some
known, or well de
fi
ned,
environment/conditions
Complicated/Complex - Features I
s(t) = Stimulus
h(t) = Operator
o(t) = Output }
s(t) and o(t) originate
and terminate within the
environment
s1(t)
s2(t)
s3(t)
si(t)
o1(t)
ok(t)
o3(t)
o2(t)
hi(t)
All known, understood, well described and
characterised, bounded, and well behaved
with causality preserved
Contained/bounded in/by some
known, or well de
fi
ned,
environment/conditions
Complicated/Complex - Features I
s(t) = Stimulus
h(t) = Operator
o(t) = Output }
s(t) and o(t) originate
and terminate within the
environment
s1(t)
s2(t)
s3(t)
si(t)
o1(t)
ok(t)
o3(t)
o2(t)
hi(t)
X
All known, understood, well described and
characterised, bounded, and well behaved
with causality preserved
Contained/bounded in/by some
known, or well de
fi
ned,
environment/conditions
Complicated/Complex - Features I
s(t) = Stimulus
h(t) = Operator
o(t) = Output }
s(t) and o(t) originate
and terminate within the
environment
s1(t)
s2(t)
s3(t)
si(t)
o1(t)
ok(t)
o3(t)
o2(t)
hi(t)
X X
All known, understood, well described and
characterised, bounded, and well behaved
with causality preserved
Contained/bounded in/by some
known, or well de
fi
ned,
environment/conditions
Complicated/Complex - Features I
s(t) = Stimulus
h(t) = Operator
o(t) = Output }
s(t) and o(t) originate
and terminate within the
environment
s1(t)
s2(t)
s3(t)
si(t)
o1(t)
ok(t)
o3(t)
o2(t)
hi(t)
X
Any one or more
or all of these
conditions may no
longer true
X X
s1(t)
s2(t)
s3(t)
si(t)
o1(t)
ok(t)
o3(t)
o2(t)
hi(t)
One or more of these
conditions no longer holds
true
Response matches need
Symbiotic with the environment
Predictable, reliable, with a fast recovery time
Upgrades and changes not traumatic or risky
Shocks are not terminal or unduly debilitating
Reproducible, easy to deploy and maintain/repair/replace
Complicated/Complex - Features II
s1(t)
s2(t)
s3(t)
si(t)
o1(t)
ok(t)
o3(t)
o2(t)
hi(t)
One or more of these
conditions no longer holds
true
Response matches need
Symbiotic with the environment
Predictable, reliable, with a fast recovery time
Upgrades and changes not traumatic or risky
Shocks are not terminal or unduly debilitating
Reproducible, easy to deploy and maintain/repair/replace
Almost by de
fi
nition we cannot satisfy this wish list 100%
Complicated/Complex - Features II
s1(t)
s2(t)
s3(t)
si(t)
o1(t)
ok(t)
o3(t)
o2(t)
hi(t)
One or more of these
conditions no longer holds
true
Response matches need
Symbiotic with the environment
Predictable, reliable, with a fast recovery time
Upgrades and changes not traumatic or risky
Shocks are not terminal or unduly debilitating
Reproducible, easy to deploy and maintain/repair/replace
Almost by de
fi
nition we cannot satisfy this wish list 100%
X
Complicated/Complex - Features II
Man and Mother Nature…
Design, understanding, desire, intent v evolution and chance
Only we design
Only we optimise
Only we do centralised control
Only we comprehend and assume responsibility
Design v evolution
Top down v bottom up
Optimisation v good enough
Mother Nature…proviso
Only evolves systems
Only builds bottom up and never top down
Only goes for ‘good enough’ and optimises nothing
Extremely
complex cells
and reasonably
simple constructs
with distributed control
She conceals her underlying
complexity at every level
of her constructs
and activity...
Hundreds of diverse inputs and outputs: cannot be
fully
fl
ood, or combinatorially tested…
Hundreds/thousands of feedback & feedforward
loops along with memory and adaptation…
REALITY BYTES !
Complexity in all things becoming the norm
“Perfection is the enemy of Good Enough”
De
fi
ning ‘good enough’ is not always trivial
and is generally the biggest challenge !
~80% of the need satis
fi
ed by ~20% of the
effort….and then often destroyed/devalued
by speci
fi
cation creep….
APEING Nature
We are building evolved systems
AI, AL, IoT, Internet, Security are now evolutionary
“Perfection is the enemy of Good Enough”
De
fi
ning ‘good enough’ is not always trivial
and is generally the biggest challenge !
~80% of the need satis
fi
ed by ~20% of the
effort….and then often destroyed/devalued
by speci
fi
cation creep….
APEING Nature
We are building evolved systems
AI, AL, IoT, Internet, Security are now evolutionary
This future will be full of surprises -
‘emergent behaviours’ - and we are
having to abandon the idea of 100%
testability and characterisation - and
we will surely lose control too!
New mind sets and new system
thinking is going to be essential
U N R E A L
Not realistic/impossible
T R A D E O F F S
You can’t have it all - not forever anyway
Size
Scale
Complexity
Connectivity
Sophistication
Connectivity
MTBF
Speed
Agility
Reliability
Testability
Predicability
Responsivity
Common/General system traits
Size
Scale
Complexity
Connectivity
Sophistication
Connectivity
MTBF
Speed
Agility
Reliability
Testability
Predicability
Responsivity
Common/General system traits
Size
Scale
Complexity
Connectivity
Sophistication
Connectivity
MTBF
Speed
Agility
Reliability
Testability
Predicability
Responsivity
Often difficult
to define
with
any great
precision
Common/General system traits
Size
Scale
Complexity
Connectivity
Sophistication
Connectivity
MTBF
Speed
Agility
Reliability
Testability
Predicability
Responsivity
Cost MTTR Latency
Power Heat Resources
Often difficult
to define
with
any great
precision
Common/General system traits
A long storage life and very
short operational activity
HUH ??
Short storage life and very
long operational activity
HUH ?
?
Brittleness ALWAYS rules
Reliability/resilience and optimisation are mutually exclusive
Highly optimised components result
in mission critical failures
Ρ
€ € €
Ef
fi
ciency
𝓷
Efficiency is ‘easy’
People overlook the cost of failure!
Ρ
Failure free
operating cost
with ef
fi
ciency f1(
𝓷
)
Failure cost with
ef
fi
ciency f2(
𝓷
)
€ € €
Ef
fi
ciency
𝓷
Efficiency is ‘easy’
People overlook the cost of failure!
Ρ
𝓷
Failure free
operating cost
with ef
fi
ciency f1(
𝓷
)
Failure cost with
ef
fi
ciency f2(
𝓷
)
€ € €
Ef
fi
ciency
𝓷
f1’(
𝓷
) + f2’(
𝓷
) = 0
For the speci
fi
c exponential
case:
C = Aexp(-a.
𝓷
) + Bexp(b.
𝓷
)
𝓷
o =
b - a
__
1 loge Aa
Bb
_
The optimum operating
ef
fi
ciency is found to be:
Efficiency is ‘easy’
People overlook the cost of failure!
Bathtub Reliability Curve
Failure Rate
End of life
wear out
failures
Normal/useful life
low level failures
Time
Infant mortality
- early failures
Failure
Rate
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
MTBF - hours
Mean Time Between Failures
MTTR - seconds
Mean Time To Repair
99.999%
99.99%
99.9%
99%
90%
0.1
1 year 10 years
1 month
1 week
1 day
1 minute
1 hour
1 day
Availability
Offsetting inevitable failures
1 second
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
MTBF - hours
Mean Time Between Failures
MTTR - seconds
Mean Time To Repair
99.999%
99.99%
99.9%
99%
90%
0.1
1 year 10 years
1 month
1 week
1 day
1 minute
1 hour
1 day
Availability
Offsetting inevitable failures
MTBF = 11.4 years
1 second
System 1
System 2
System N
?
Not co-located
Not the same power feed
Not the same software
Not the same network connections
No centralised control
Switch
Or Sum
Voting
A =1- (1 - Av)N
Av
Av
Av
A = Availability
Hot standby
Offsetting inevitable failures
MTBF = Mean Time Between Failures
MTTR = Mean Time To Repair
Mean = Average - and Averages don’t tell us much!
Distribution is key !
Availability = Av = MTBF/(MTBF + MTTR)
Unavailability = Uv = 1 - Av = 1 - MTBF/(MTBF + MTTR)
= MTTR/(MTBF + MTTR)
Relationships
At the most basic ‘average’ level
Resilience = The capacity to recover
Failure modes: Graceful/Phased
Predominant in the world of analogue system - precursors evident
Resilience = The capacity to recover
Failure modes: catastrophic/instant
Predominant in the world of digital systems - precursors often hidden
Some still ‘to do’s’
Specifically for the digital domain
Failure precursor detection
Integrates graceful fail mode
Pre-emptive failure switchover
Golden ‘brick’ reference models
Comprehensive test methodologies
Brittleness threshold/onset detection
Abnormal system operation identification
No-GO realm/region/mode recognition
Autonomous failure recover modes
Penetration/illegal act detection
Full outcomes characterisations
Decision ‘post mortem’ facility
Species comparators ++++
Real
System
Design
Example
Sniper Locating
M u l t i p l e a c o u s t i c s e n s o r s
Sniper Locating
with acoustic sensors
Acoustic Cone of
U n c e r t a i n t y
3 - 5o
Sensor
Unit
War Zone
Ambient
Noise
Dynamic
R a n g e
Limited
Today’s Performance
~200m
Acoustic Cone
of
U n c e r t a i n t
y
3 - 5o
Sensor
Unit Dynamic
R a n g e
Limited
~200m
In Combat Multi-Mic Array
MODERN SYSTEM
Filtering
Post Microphone analogue/digital filtering/
processing
~
~
~
DSP
~
~
~
Noise Filtering
Directivity - Focus
Voice Characteristics
Anticipated Subject
Matter
Correlated sniper
shot signal - a
matched filter by
any other name
Dynamic range limiting
background noise
T i m e
waveform
and spectrum
o f s i n g l e
sniper shot
Primary dynamic range limiter - the
diaphragm
Diaphragm driven to
mechanical saturation by
noise and thereby limiting
dynamic range for the
wanted/weak signal
T i m e
waveform
and spectrum
o f s i n g l e
sniper shot
Pre-Filter
Noise Filtering
Directivity - Focus
Voice Characteristics
Multiple analogue resonant cavity
filtering
Pre-Diaphragm acoustic filter
reduces noise input to improves
dynamic range and directivity
T i m e
waveform
and spectrum
o f s i n g l e
sniper shot
Filter Config
Filter Characteristic
A wide range of selectivity configurations is
possible
Naked Microphone Insert
Filter 1
Filter 2
Experimental
Multi-Array
E a c h f i lt e r/m i c
a s s e m b l y i s
m e c h a n i c a l l y
isolated by foam -
n o a c o u s t i c
linkage assembly to
assembly
Detail
Machine gun background
Machine gun background
Sniper rifle
Sniper rifle
Ambient Battle
fi
eld Noise
Sniper Ri
fl
e Spectrum
Containment > 95% of Sniper Spectral Energy
Filter Rejection Zone
This region is not generally critical to
detection but can contain energy vital
to identification
Peak
to
Peak
highly
distance
dependent
2 10 100 1k 5kHz
Ambient Battle
fi
eld Noise
Sniper Ri
fl
e Spectrum
Containment > 95% of Sniper Spectral Energy
Filter Rejection Zone
Peak
to
Peak
highly
distance
dependent
2 10 100 1k 5kHz
Relative and non specific energy levels
for the purpose of illustration - all
location and situation defined
Prototype Filter Response
Sniper rifle buried in
machine gun signal
Sniper rifle buried in
machine gun signal
Sniper Ri
fl
e
+
Machine Gun
Autocorrelation
Sniper Detected
Pre mic acoustic
fi
ltered signal
Processing Delay
w w w. p e t e r c o c h r a n e . c o m
T h a n k Y o u
“The march of science and technology does not
imply growing intellectual complexity in the lives
of most people. It often means the opposite”
Thomas Sowell

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Applied Science - Engineering Systems

  • 1. A p p l i e d S c i e n c e E n g i n e e r i n g S o l u t i o n s N o M a t t e r W h a t ! S Y S T E M S P r o f P e t e r C o c h r a n e O B E D S c w w w. p e t e r c o c h r a n e . c o m
  • 2. "Simple can be harder than complex. You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple" Steve Jobs "Global terrorism is extreme both in its lack of realistic goals and in its cynical exploitation of the vulnerability of complex systems" Jurgen Habermas "Today the network of relationships linking our species to the biosphere is so complex that all aspects a ff ect all others to an extraordinary degree. We should be studying the whole system, because no gluing together of partial studies of a complex nonlinear system can give a good idea of the behaviour of the whole" Murray Gell-Mann COMPLEXITY O u r b i g g e s t c h a l l e n g e C l o s e 2 N D M u l t i d i s c i p l i n a r y P r o b l e m s S t o c h a s t i c /
  • 3. "Simple can be harder than complex. You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple" Steve Jobs "Global terrorism is extreme both in its lack of realistic goals and in its cynical exploitation of the vulnerability of complex systems" Jurgen Habermas "Today the network of relationships linking our species to the biosphere is so complex that all aspects a ff ect all others to an extraordinary degree. We should be studying the whole system, because no gluing together of partial studies of a complex nonlinear system can give a good idea of the behaviour of the whole" Murray Gell-Mann COMPLEXITY O u r b i g g e s t c h a l l e n g e C l o s e 2 N D M u l t i d i s c i p l i n a r y P r o b l e m s S t o c h a s t i c /
  • 4. ‘System’ Definition Can we describe exactly what we mean ? “This singularly simple question directs us to an ongoing (endless) philosophical debate that is less than helpful for engineers and scientists” We need something both meaningful and concise that affords us sufficient licence to assist our understanding in designing and building machines and networks that invoke positive advantage and progress at minimal risk employing progressively less energy & material
  • 5. “A group of interacting, interrelated, or interdependent elements forming a complex whole” The most concise de fi nition I can fi nd but not entirely satisfactory for any engineering purposes… literature Thousands of publications * The whole may be simple, complicated or complex, and there may or may not be any interdependence !
  • 6. Functionally related groups of elements, especially: - Human body regarded as a functional physiological unit - Organisms as a whole, especially with regard to vital processes/functions - Groups of physiologically or anatomically complementary organs or parts - Interacting mechanical or electrical components dispersed or local - Networks and channels, for communication, travel, or distribution - Interrelated computer software, hardware, and data transmission devices Correct(ish) but inconcise, incomplete, and also unsuitable: literature Thousands of discourses
  • 7. An organised set of interrelated ideas or principles - Social, economic, or political organisational forms - Naturally occurring groups of objects or phenomena: the solar system. - Objects or phenomena grouped together for classi fi cation or analysis - Condition of harmonious, orderly interaction - Organised and coordinated method; ie procedures literature Thousands of discourses Correct(ish) but inconcise, incomplete, and also unsuitable:
  • 8. ‘Systems take energy, matter, information, and transforms their nature’ * Ergo: All Systems are Entropic Not Published My tight/sufficient (?) definition
  • 9. A W I D E R L E N S Only art, science, and engineering Divisions: Mathematics, Physics Chemistry, Biology, Art are all artificial silos, and so are Electrical, Mechanical, Software, Chemical, Civil Engineering et al introduced sometime after the reformation; and whilst they accelerated our progress & understanding they now sees widespread limited thinking and a lack of mutual understanding that is often disadvantageous Galileo Galilei Michael Angelo Leonardo da Vinci
  • 10. S O L U T I O N Select specialist teams
  • 11. Taking an interest in every system known to mankind pays dividends in providing us with insights and challenging concepts and occasionally , really useful results... …we no longer design, deploy and operate our systems in isolation...we live in a world of the natural and unnatural, the evolved, designed, and designoid …that in general are connected to interact ...the way they connect coexist and interact is important especially when life dependency and mission critical issues are at stake ! An essential PRACTICE For completeness of enquiry we need a better radar
  • 12. Systems are never stronger than their weakest element Systems are never simpler than their most complex element Systems are always more complex than their most complex elements G E N E R A L A X I O M S For individual & connected/networked systems
  • 13. • Complex systems never get easier to characterise • Complex systems always make the simple more complex • Complex systems are never rendered simpler - without incurring costs ! • Simple systems tend toward being rendered more complex ! • Simple systems tend to get more di ffi cult to characterise • Simple systems don’t make the complex simpler • There are no simple solutions to complex problems • There is a huge di ff erence between complicated and complex systems G E N E R A L A X I O M S For individual & connected/networked systems
  • 14. • Simple systems tend to migrate toward complication • Complicated systems tend to migrate toward complexity • Complex systems can comprise simple and/or complicated elements • Entropy always follows the direction (1, 2, 3) and never the reverse • The converse of the construct (1, 2, 3) seldom occurs - if ever ! • Cluster of simple/complicated systems can become complex a whole Our lack of understanding never deterred us from exploiting anything, but we have often witnessed some pretty big mistakes/fails in the process! G E N E R A L A X I O M S For individual & connected/networked systems
  • 15. Mother Natures propensity for Simple Systems resulting in Complex Outcomes WHAT WE generally observe A natural & designed world complexity - simplicity inversion
  • 16. Humans propensity for Complex Systems resulting in Simple Outcomes WHAT WE generally observe A natural & designed world complexity - simplicity inversion
  • 17. Dominant System Trend WHAT WE KNOW FOR SURE We cannot manage 21C societies with 17C thinking/systems
  • 18. V I S I B L E T R E N D S Irreversible progression to complexity DESIGNED EVOLVED Well behaved Out of control Well Understood Knowledge Gap TOOLS MODELS Physical Laws Emulation Low Combinatorics Certainty the Norm High Predictability High Combinatorics Uncertainty the Norm Emergent Behaviour Mathematics Simulations Plasma Biology Physics Weather Universe Genetics Ecologies Chemistry Proteomics Combustion Earthquakes Global Warming Immune Systems Quantum Mechanics National Security Search Engines Globalisation Management Mobile Nets Leadership Intelligence Economics Nano-Tech Bio-Tech Con fl ict M&A COMPLEX Telephone Car Engine Jet Turbine MRI Scanner Rocket Motor Air Conditioner Server Farm Computer Lap-top Tablet Radio TV COMPLICATED Long Bow Catapult Pulley Canal Mill SIMPLE Drill Lathe Bicycle Ratchet
  • 19. g e n e r a l i t i e s Sureties, actualities, challenges Digital Analogue Hybrid Analogue//Digital Our knowledge base Our understanding Made by mankind Made by machine Our species survival Our planets survival Machine intelligence Symbiosis necessary Challenges to be addressed dominant remains a vital core ubiquitous & growing advancing and accelerating limited by our technologies insu ffi cient for our populous survival vital to our survival and prosperity depends upon good systems ***** depends upon good stewardship/tech overtaking us in many areas man-machine partnership underway ***** formidable but interesting and vital *****
  • 20. BEWARE Not so obvious exceptions Quantum Computing is essentially analogue AI is migrating toward a mix of analogue and digital Modern radio systems are a mix of analogue and digital Optical fi bre systems are a mix of analogue and digital Robots are a mix of analogue and digital Sensors are a mix of analogue and digital VR and AR a mix of analogue and digital
  • 21. Generalities All systems share similar models mathematical/analysis frameworks Electrical, Electronic, Mechanical, Civil Engineering & Physics share the same or very similar equations sets…’know one and you know the other’
  • 22. Differences: Chemistry, Biology, Sociology, Information/Computing Networks Systems tend to be observed through a different lens but still share many similarities Generalities All systems share similar models mathematical/analysis frameworks
  • 23. ‘SIMPLEst’ SYSTEMS Lie within the grasp of one human mind & hands Designed top down Always predictable Easy to specify Easy to design Easy to model Easy to realise Easy to control Easy to operate Do not evolve Do not adapt Unchanging Stable/well behaved Essentially Linear Laws of physics apply Mathematics works Linear behaviour Predictable Conceived, designed and produced by one human
  • 24. S I M P L E S Y S T E M S Within the span of ‘a’ human mind or team Designed top down Always predictable Easy to specify Easy to design Easy to model Easy to realise Easy to control Easy to operate Do not evolve Do not adapt Unchanging Stable/well behaved Essentially Linear Laws of physics apply Mathematics works Linear behaviour Predictable
  • 25. Di ffi cult to understand Designed top down Di ffi cult to specify Di ffi cult to design Hard to model Hard to realise Hard to control Hard to operate Seldom non-linear Generally predictable Do not evolve - stable Stable/well behaved Essentially Linear Laws of physics apply Maths ‘mostly’ works(ish) Unnatural materials required Computer modelling a necessity Complicated SYSTEMS A deep understanding beyond the grasp of ‘a’ human
  • 26. Complicated Sea skimming missile detection Time of flight ~ 10 - 20s
  • 27. Complicated Sea skimming missile detection Time of flight ~ 10 - 20s
  • 28. C O M P L E x The concatenation of large numbers of simple and/or complicated sub- systems can lead to unpredicted non-linearities and thus surprises - unexpected emergent behaviours due to the whole becoming complex
  • 29. Complex SYSTEMS Global Air Traffic - highly unpredictable exhibits continual adaptation aka life!
  • 30. Complex SYSTEMS Global Shipping - highly unpredictable exhibits continual adaptation aka life!
  • 31. Complex SYSTEMS Global Internet Traffic - beyond prediction exhibits continual adaptation aka life!
  • 32. Initial/intuitive top down design Evolution rapidly dominates Modelling a major challenge Accurate speci fi cation hard Fundamentally stochastic Design; a tough challenge Realisation is easy/hard Operation is easy/hard Control is easy/hard Non-linear/chaotic Complex SYSTEMS Beyond human wisdoms & mental abilities Dominated by many non-linear elements “Established wisdoms do not apply Mathematics non-contributor Emergent behaviours/rule No general laws” “NOTE: These are ‘generalised comments and there are always opportunities for exceptions”
  • 33. Machine DESIGNED We have entered a realm where we have no clue! AI + AL derived AL evolution Impossible (?) to understand Seeded from the bottom up Accurate spec impossible Outcome unpredictable Beyond (?) modelling Very easy to realise No human control Autonomous code ‘Always’ non-linear Only modest compute power Good network connectivity Maths nears irrelevancy Now ‘breeding’ malware
  • 34. Stability Two extremes/bounds Conditionally Stable Conditionally Unstable Only becomes unstable when there is some system failure Under any and all conditions
  • 35. Output Input Linear : NON-LINEAR Confusing and often confused These are all non-linear responses as they give wildly di ff erent outputs for the same input every time These are all linear responses in that an input gives the same output every time Established wisdoms do not apply Mathematics non-contributor Emergent behaviours rule No general laws
  • 36. THESE DAYS HAVE Long GONE We a r e n o w m o s t d e f i n i t e l y i n a m a c h i n e a g e a n d e r a d i c a t i n g p e o p l e f r o m t h e c o n t r o l l o o p i s a n u r g e n t n e c e s s i t y
  • 37. In a simple disconnected world... ...we can address problems in isolation ...and simple solutions mostly work In a complex connected world... ...we have to consider the whole ...simple solutions never work AI ...modelling, simulation, decision support ...BIG DATA ...everything online, and networked ...a living organism... R E A L I T Y Simple is now a rarity AL …evolved designoid solutions
  • 38. BIGGEST WORRY The majority do not comprehend Simple linear and a well behaved arena: intuition, experience, & wisdoms mostly worked well and were adequate across the most societies A universe characterised by a limited range of relationships, concepts and equations that were readily understood Non-linear, complex and highly unpredictable arena: intuition, experience, wisdoms are mostly unreliable at best & highly dangerous at worse A universe characterised by a wide range of immature and developing concepts/computer models not readily understood by lay people, politicians, +++ PAST TO DAY FUTURE “Economics & market forces are failing Ignorance and bigotry on the rise Politics & democracy is in peril“
  • 39. LEMMING LIKE Doing what they thing is right
  • 41. Fourier + Laplace - time and frequency g(t) f(t)❋g(t) f(t) F(ω) G(ω) F(ω).G(ω) Simple Multiplication Complicated Convolution Laplace forces integrals to converge - best used on transients signals Fourier can see integrals to diverge - best used on repetitive signals BASIC SYSTEM Nomenclature - Methodology Frequency Domain Descriptor Time Domain Descriptor This is the original analogue version we have now rendered discrete and digital - Digital Fourier/Laplace Transform
  • 43. Temporal Function Frequency Function Frequency Function Temporal Function TRANSFORMATIONS Difficult problems rendered easy(ier) Fourier: time frequency domain = Laplace: time frequency domain transient signals
  • 44. Temporal Function Frequency Function Frequency Function Temporal Function Applicable to time and s p a c e , h e a t fl o w , mechanical systems, probability theory +++ TRANSFORMATIONS Difficult problems rendered easy(ier) Fourier: time frequency domain = Laplace: time frequency domain transient signals
  • 46. ENVIRONMENT? s(t) h(t) o(t) Other systems of the same or differing type may be sharing the same space or some part of it, and therefore there can be many obvious and hidden opportunities for aliasing.... Air Water Earth Machines Lifeforms Fluids Solids Chemicals Radiation Information Chemical Physical Information/Data Processing Mathematical Natural Unnatural Biological Electrical Electronic Mechanical Computational Optical Acoustic Organic Inorganic Life forms +++
  • 47. What’s in THE BOX ? What are the limits to what we describe and de fi ne s(t) h(t) o(t) What can we describe and de fi ne Optical Acoustic +++ +++ Life forms o(t) = h[s(t)] = h(s) for ease of notation o = a + bt + ct2 + dt3 et4 + ft5 is the largest polynomial we can solve for very limited and narrow range of cases In the absence of a closed form solution we often reduced to using polynomial or some other form of approximate descriptor
  • 48. AND the output ? s(t) h(t) o(t) In the general case it impacts/changes the environment and the input and is often a grossly non-linear series of loops e(t) f(t)
  • 49. FEEDBACK & FEEDBACK ? s(t) h(t) o(t) FB o(t) FF s(t) Noise reduction loop -ve FeedBack induces stability +ve FeedBack induces instability Mathematical tractability reduced by the # loops Stability and response shaping loop
  • 50. General SYSTEM traits s(t) h(t) o(t) s1(t) s2(t) s3(t) si(t) o1(t) ok(t) o3(t) o2(t) hi(t)
  • 51. General SYSTEM traits s(t) h(t) o(t) s1(t) s2(t) s3(t) si(t) o1(t) ok(t) o3(t) o2(t) hi(t) Simple Singular Linear Complicated /Complex Multi - I/O Linear Non-Linear In general can be fully tested and characterised In general cannot be fully tested and characterised
  • 52. All known, understood, well described and characterised, bounded, and well behaved with causality preserved Contained/bounded in/by some known, or well de fi ned, environment/conditions Simple System - Key Features 1 s(t) h(t) o(t) s(t) = Stimulus h(t) = Operator o(t) = Output } s(t) and o(t) originate and terminate within the environment
  • 53. Response matches need Symbiotic with the environment Predictable, reliable, with a fast recovery time Upgrades and changes not traumatic or risky Shocks are not terminal or unduly debilitating Reproducible, easy to deploy and maintain/repair/replace Simple System - Key Features II s(t) h(t) o(t)
  • 54. Response matches need Symbiotic with the environment Predictable, reliable, with a fast recovery time Upgrades and changes not traumatic or risky Shocks are not terminal or unduly debilitating Reproducible, easy to deploy and maintain/repair/replace Simple System - Key Features II s(t) h(t) o(t) Sometimes we cannot satisfy this wish list 100%
  • 55. All known, understood, well described and characterised, bounded, and well behaved with causality preserved Contained/bounded in/by some known, or well de fi ned, environment/conditions Complicated/Complex - Features I s(t) = Stimulus h(t) = Operator o(t) = Output } s(t) and o(t) originate and terminate within the environment s1(t) s2(t) s3(t) si(t) o1(t) ok(t) o3(t) o2(t) hi(t)
  • 56. All known, understood, well described and characterised, bounded, and well behaved with causality preserved Contained/bounded in/by some known, or well de fi ned, environment/conditions Complicated/Complex - Features I s(t) = Stimulus h(t) = Operator o(t) = Output } s(t) and o(t) originate and terminate within the environment s1(t) s2(t) s3(t) si(t) o1(t) ok(t) o3(t) o2(t) hi(t) X
  • 57. All known, understood, well described and characterised, bounded, and well behaved with causality preserved Contained/bounded in/by some known, or well de fi ned, environment/conditions Complicated/Complex - Features I s(t) = Stimulus h(t) = Operator o(t) = Output } s(t) and o(t) originate and terminate within the environment s1(t) s2(t) s3(t) si(t) o1(t) ok(t) o3(t) o2(t) hi(t) X X
  • 58. All known, understood, well described and characterised, bounded, and well behaved with causality preserved Contained/bounded in/by some known, or well de fi ned, environment/conditions Complicated/Complex - Features I s(t) = Stimulus h(t) = Operator o(t) = Output } s(t) and o(t) originate and terminate within the environment s1(t) s2(t) s3(t) si(t) o1(t) ok(t) o3(t) o2(t) hi(t) X Any one or more or all of these conditions may no longer true X X
  • 59. s1(t) s2(t) s3(t) si(t) o1(t) ok(t) o3(t) o2(t) hi(t) One or more of these conditions no longer holds true Response matches need Symbiotic with the environment Predictable, reliable, with a fast recovery time Upgrades and changes not traumatic or risky Shocks are not terminal or unduly debilitating Reproducible, easy to deploy and maintain/repair/replace Complicated/Complex - Features II
  • 60. s1(t) s2(t) s3(t) si(t) o1(t) ok(t) o3(t) o2(t) hi(t) One or more of these conditions no longer holds true Response matches need Symbiotic with the environment Predictable, reliable, with a fast recovery time Upgrades and changes not traumatic or risky Shocks are not terminal or unduly debilitating Reproducible, easy to deploy and maintain/repair/replace Almost by de fi nition we cannot satisfy this wish list 100% Complicated/Complex - Features II
  • 61. s1(t) s2(t) s3(t) si(t) o1(t) ok(t) o3(t) o2(t) hi(t) One or more of these conditions no longer holds true Response matches need Symbiotic with the environment Predictable, reliable, with a fast recovery time Upgrades and changes not traumatic or risky Shocks are not terminal or unduly debilitating Reproducible, easy to deploy and maintain/repair/replace Almost by de fi nition we cannot satisfy this wish list 100% X Complicated/Complex - Features II
  • 62. Man and Mother Nature… Design, understanding, desire, intent v evolution and chance Only we design Only we optimise Only we do centralised control Only we comprehend and assume responsibility Design v evolution Top down v bottom up Optimisation v good enough
  • 63. Mother Nature…proviso Only evolves systems Only builds bottom up and never top down Only goes for ‘good enough’ and optimises nothing Extremely complex cells and reasonably simple constructs with distributed control She conceals her underlying complexity at every level of her constructs and activity...
  • 64. Hundreds of diverse inputs and outputs: cannot be fully fl ood, or combinatorially tested… Hundreds/thousands of feedback & feedforward loops along with memory and adaptation… REALITY BYTES ! Complexity in all things becoming the norm
  • 65. “Perfection is the enemy of Good Enough” De fi ning ‘good enough’ is not always trivial and is generally the biggest challenge ! ~80% of the need satis fi ed by ~20% of the effort….and then often destroyed/devalued by speci fi cation creep…. APEING Nature We are building evolved systems AI, AL, IoT, Internet, Security are now evolutionary
  • 66. “Perfection is the enemy of Good Enough” De fi ning ‘good enough’ is not always trivial and is generally the biggest challenge ! ~80% of the need satis fi ed by ~20% of the effort….and then often destroyed/devalued by speci fi cation creep…. APEING Nature We are building evolved systems AI, AL, IoT, Internet, Security are now evolutionary This future will be full of surprises - ‘emergent behaviours’ - and we are having to abandon the idea of 100% testability and characterisation - and we will surely lose control too! New mind sets and new system thinking is going to be essential
  • 67. U N R E A L Not realistic/impossible
  • 68. T R A D E O F F S You can’t have it all - not forever anyway
  • 73. A long storage life and very short operational activity HUH ??
  • 74. Short storage life and very long operational activity HUH ? ?
  • 75. Brittleness ALWAYS rules Reliability/resilience and optimisation are mutually exclusive Highly optimised components result in mission critical failures
  • 76. Ρ € € € Ef fi ciency 𝓷 Efficiency is ‘easy’ People overlook the cost of failure!
  • 77. Ρ Failure free operating cost with ef fi ciency f1( 𝓷 ) Failure cost with ef fi ciency f2( 𝓷 ) € € € Ef fi ciency 𝓷 Efficiency is ‘easy’ People overlook the cost of failure!
  • 78. Ρ 𝓷 Failure free operating cost with ef fi ciency f1( 𝓷 ) Failure cost with ef fi ciency f2( 𝓷 ) € € € Ef fi ciency 𝓷 f1’( 𝓷 ) + f2’( 𝓷 ) = 0 For the speci fi c exponential case: C = Aexp(-a. 𝓷 ) + Bexp(b. 𝓷 ) 𝓷 o = b - a __ 1 loge Aa Bb _ The optimum operating ef fi ciency is found to be: Efficiency is ‘easy’ People overlook the cost of failure!
  • 79. Bathtub Reliability Curve Failure Rate End of life wear out failures Normal/useful life low level failures Time Infant mortality - early failures Failure Rate
  • 80. 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 MTBF - hours Mean Time Between Failures MTTR - seconds Mean Time To Repair 99.999% 99.99% 99.9% 99% 90% 0.1 1 year 10 years 1 month 1 week 1 day 1 minute 1 hour 1 day Availability Offsetting inevitable failures 1 second
  • 81. 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 MTBF - hours Mean Time Between Failures MTTR - seconds Mean Time To Repair 99.999% 99.99% 99.9% 99% 90% 0.1 1 year 10 years 1 month 1 week 1 day 1 minute 1 hour 1 day Availability Offsetting inevitable failures MTBF = 11.4 years 1 second
  • 82. System 1 System 2 System N ? Not co-located Not the same power feed Not the same software Not the same network connections No centralised control Switch Or Sum Voting A =1- (1 - Av)N Av Av Av A = Availability Hot standby Offsetting inevitable failures
  • 83. MTBF = Mean Time Between Failures MTTR = Mean Time To Repair Mean = Average - and Averages don’t tell us much! Distribution is key ! Availability = Av = MTBF/(MTBF + MTTR) Unavailability = Uv = 1 - Av = 1 - MTBF/(MTBF + MTTR) = MTTR/(MTBF + MTTR) Relationships At the most basic ‘average’ level
  • 84. Resilience = The capacity to recover Failure modes: Graceful/Phased Predominant in the world of analogue system - precursors evident
  • 85. Resilience = The capacity to recover Failure modes: catastrophic/instant Predominant in the world of digital systems - precursors often hidden
  • 86. Some still ‘to do’s’ Specifically for the digital domain Failure precursor detection Integrates graceful fail mode Pre-emptive failure switchover Golden ‘brick’ reference models Comprehensive test methodologies Brittleness threshold/onset detection Abnormal system operation identification No-GO realm/region/mode recognition Autonomous failure recover modes Penetration/illegal act detection Full outcomes characterisations Decision ‘post mortem’ facility Species comparators ++++
  • 88. Sniper Locating M u l t i p l e a c o u s t i c s e n s o r s
  • 89. Sniper Locating with acoustic sensors Acoustic Cone of U n c e r t a i n t y 3 - 5o Sensor Unit War Zone Ambient Noise Dynamic R a n g e Limited Today’s Performance ~200m
  • 90. Acoustic Cone of U n c e r t a i n t y 3 - 5o Sensor Unit Dynamic R a n g e Limited ~200m In Combat Multi-Mic Array MODERN SYSTEM
  • 91. Filtering Post Microphone analogue/digital filtering/ processing ~ ~ ~ DSP ~ ~ ~ Noise Filtering Directivity - Focus Voice Characteristics Anticipated Subject Matter Correlated sniper shot signal - a matched filter by any other name Dynamic range limiting background noise T i m e waveform and spectrum o f s i n g l e sniper shot
  • 92. Primary dynamic range limiter - the diaphragm Diaphragm driven to mechanical saturation by noise and thereby limiting dynamic range for the wanted/weak signal T i m e waveform and spectrum o f s i n g l e sniper shot Pre-Filter
  • 93. Noise Filtering Directivity - Focus Voice Characteristics Multiple analogue resonant cavity filtering Pre-Diaphragm acoustic filter reduces noise input to improves dynamic range and directivity T i m e waveform and spectrum o f s i n g l e sniper shot Filter Config
  • 94. Filter Characteristic A wide range of selectivity configurations is possible Naked Microphone Insert Filter 1 Filter 2
  • 96. E a c h f i lt e r/m i c a s s e m b l y i s m e c h a n i c a l l y isolated by foam - n o a c o u s t i c linkage assembly to assembly Detail
  • 101. Ambient Battle fi eld Noise Sniper Ri fl e Spectrum Containment > 95% of Sniper Spectral Energy Filter Rejection Zone This region is not generally critical to detection but can contain energy vital to identification Peak to Peak highly distance dependent 2 10 100 1k 5kHz
  • 102. Ambient Battle fi eld Noise Sniper Ri fl e Spectrum Containment > 95% of Sniper Spectral Energy Filter Rejection Zone Peak to Peak highly distance dependent 2 10 100 1k 5kHz Relative and non specific energy levels for the purpose of illustration - all location and situation defined Prototype Filter Response
  • 103. Sniper rifle buried in machine gun signal
  • 104. Sniper rifle buried in machine gun signal
  • 105. Sniper Ri fl e + Machine Gun Autocorrelation Sniper Detected Pre mic acoustic fi ltered signal Processing Delay
  • 106. w w w. p e t e r c o c h r a n e . c o m T h a n k Y o u “The march of science and technology does not imply growing intellectual complexity in the lives of most people. It often means the opposite” Thomas Sowell