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5HG Hype, Hope and Realities - Censis Glasgow 7 Nov 19


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The mobile industry has always been prone to hype and hyperbole, but they have more than excelled themselves with the promise of imminent 5G roll out. Apparently 5G will dominate the IoT, Smart Cities, Robotic Plants, Autonomous Vehicles, Global Logistics, Remote Surgery, AR, VR and everything else…. Of course there are elements of the ‘likely outcomes’ here, but there is plenty of reason to consider 5G to be the ultimate Swiss Army Knife - capable of doing almost anything, but only doing a few tasks really well!

Reality is that the highest bandwidths forecast are only likely to be achieved at relatively short distances, with high power consumption and relatively short battery life between charges - ie much shorter than 3 or 4G. At the same time the nee for 10 - 100x the number of 4G masts and towers renders the old mobile deployment models impractical. An obvious solution is the deployment of nodes for home and office at FTTP terminal points to provide comprehensive network coverage/geographic infill.

Perhaps the prime quality of 5G, over and above 3 and 4G, that is seldom featured is that of very low latency which is an essential for remote robotics, surgery, medicine, AR and VR applications.

So in this presentation we consider all of theses aspects (and more) in the context of Industry 4.0 (I4.0) and the move toward sustainable societies in order to present a degree of clarification as to which technologies will most likely applied where. This sees the Not as the nervous system of the planet with more thing connecting at close range off - net, with some consolidation and analysis at node before upload into the IoT.

In short; there is not enough energy available for all things to be connected by 5G technology, and nor is it necessary, the available alternatives for very short range - low energy connectivity are not only viable they are more attractive by size, form factor, cost, and operational modes, We therefor predict a dynamic mixed technology future…

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5HG Hype, Hope and Realities - Censis Glasgow 7 Nov 19

  1. 1. Hype Hope And The Realitie s Prof Peter Cochrane OBE
  2. 2. Glasgow 7 Nov 19
  3. 3. Mobile Industry HYPE Did they actually deliver the 2,3,4G promise This A LL seem s So V ER Y fa r fr o m R Ea lity
  4. 4. 5 G T H E P ro m is e Biggest game changer in telecom ever ? IoT Dominant Tele-Robotics Tele-Medicine Tele-Education Virtual Reality Computer Games Augmented Reality Trunk/Local BackHaul Optical Fibre Replacement ++++ ++++ Improves your sex life ! Smart Cities Smart Transport Sensor Networks Autonomous Vehicles ++++ There are elements of truth in most of these statements but they need qualification case-by-case ! Reduced Costs Lower Latency Gbit Data Rates Higher Reliability Greater Resilience Ultimate Flexibility ++++ REality May Be very different
  5. 5. 5 G T H E H Y P E A ll things to all peoples everywhere Far MORE EXciting Low Latency
  6. 6. VR & AR: In 1990 P r o o f o f p r i n c i p l e t e s t s • H o t • H e a v y • N o v e l • G e e k y • E y e S t r a i n • H e a d a c h e s • L a t e n c y • P o o r A u d i o • Te c h n o p h o b i a • L o w B a n d w i d t h • L o w R e s o l u t i o n • U s e r Te c h n o p h o b i a • R e s i s t a n c e t o C h a n g e em
  7. 7. And Today Deployed Already 5G BW AND LOW Latency A W INNER
  8. 8. 500 100 300 400 200 0 600 0 30 60 100 130 DATA Rate w ith Path Length You can’t beat the Laws of Physics - Verizon Testing Average Download Speed Mb/s Distance From Node m 5G 4G
  9. 9. DATA Rate w ith Path Length Real Environment Testing - AT&T Dallas Average Download Speed Mb/s Distance From Node m 5G 4G/LTE 1000 600 200 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 1400 0 5G/WiFI
  10. 10. 5 G I n f i l l 5G Wireless + PON 5G Tow ers & Masts Num bers required are a challenge! Public objections Planning constraints 5G >> 10 x 4G sites Technical boundaries Economically unviable Wireless QoS challenges Energy demand limitations More FTTNode necessary China has >80,000 5G nodes in one city!
  11. 11. 5G Home & Office C u s t o m e r s i n s t a l l a t t h e i r e x p e n s e W i r e l e s s t o n o d e F i b re To T h e N o d e S h a r e d B W h i g h e n e r g y d e m a n d D e d i c a t e d B W l o w e n e r g y d e m a n d A world of mini & micro - cells is the only route to full coverage 5G with o p t i c a l f i b r e a t the core in dense urban locations MORE W ireless means Far more Dark Fibre Energy demand Battery life are primary concerns
  12. 12. Getting 5G To Fly G o f o r D I Y P l u g a n d p l a y n o e x p e r t i s e re q u i re d ! WiFi ~ 55% Copper/FTTP ~ 45% 3 + 4G ~5% Internet Traffic
  13. 13. BIO-TECH nano-TECH AIRoboticsMulti-Disciplinary hot spot for the 21C New materials New industries New processes New capabilitiess Lower energy Lower waste Less friction I 4 . 0 + I o T P e r s p e c t i v e I n c o n t e x t : S e t t i n g t h e S c e n e & E x p e c t a t i o n p o lis h in g a ll o u r o ld in d u s t r ies is n o t en o u g h w e n eed m u c h m o r e
  14. 14. IoT 3G 4G 5G Blue Tooth WiFi GSM EGSM LTE Mesh-Nets ZigBee UNBLoRa RPMA BLE UNB UWB W-P Manufacture R&D BIO- nano AIRobotics BIGger Picture C r e a t i n g s u s t a i n a b l e f u t u r e s I o T i s t h e f u t u r e n e r v o u s s y s t e m o f a n E c o s p h e r e f o r h u m a n i t y a n d t h e p l a n e t IoT set to become dominant comms connect data and intelligence domain
  15. 15. Clustered by applications & users; convenience; and/or nearest resource, and connect point+++ A C l ust e rD/ M es h N ET F UT U R E ~250Bn IoT things connecting & employing aggregation Most of the IoT w ill never connect direct to the internet
  16. 16. Ship to shore Container to Ship H I D D E N V A L U E In every container operation globally BIG DATA = Container, schedule/location ? Small DATA = Status of container contents ?
  17. 17. Direct content of boxes, or direct box to 3/4/5G fundamentally impossible Randomised content-to-content-to-box and on to pallet-to-pallet-to-container networks can do the job! IoT Challenge A Faraday Cage of shielding A battery life >1 year required Enables container sharing on a vast scale
  18. 18. 3,4,5G nets cannot support the demands of future traffic and logistic networks… but vehicle to vehicle systems can…by providing the most efficient and relevant linking of users reporting their status and sharing local/pertinent information Intelligent Logistics ? Networks, Clouds, AI without infrastructure
  19. 19. D U M B to S M A RT Wired and wireless vehicle IoT D o z e n s o f s e n s o r s , r e c o r d e r s , c o n t r o l u n i t s , a g g r e g a t e d b y o n - b o a rd a n a l y s i s w i t h I o T / I n t e r n e t c o n n e c t v i a m u l t i p l e c h a n n e l s WiFi,3, 4, 5G Direct to Service Centre Communication Direct Car-to-Car Avoiding 3, 4, 5G Congestion
  20. 20. W H E E L - T Y R E R E VO L U T I O N
  21. 21. W h e e l F u t u r es P a ss i v e- A c t i v e A ss e m b l e d ?? P r i n t e d ??
  22. 22. D U M B to S M A RT - Materials inventory & suppliers - Production process detail - Vehicle compatibilities - Full logistics record - Storage histories - Handling details - History of use - Temperature - Humidity - Stress - Failures - Repairs - Disposal - Recycle - Reuse - +++ - Dynamic element of a vehicle - Performance optimisation - Parameter adjustment - Pressure adaptation - Suspension trim - +++ - Reuse - Repair - Recycle - Recover - Replace - Repurose
  23. 23. I n t e r n e t o f p e o p l e P e r s o n a l l y , l o c a l l y , g l o b a l l y c o n n e c t e d Tagged Food Prepared/Consumed Food What we Do Are We Well ? AnalysysInformed Diagnosis The Out
  24. 24. N E W D I R E C T I O N Intelligent, connected, conversational Gateway to: AIs GPS Mobiles Voice I/O Computers Health Apps Health Sensors Secure Profiling Wider Awareness +++ Hearing Aids & Ear Buds Real Time: Data Comms Support Analysis Statistics Navigation Electronic ID Decision Support ++++
  25. 25. R o b ots At w o r k Ta k e o v e r o r b u d d y - b u d d y ? “Networked surgical/medical robots learn in parallel not serial like humans” Low Latency is vital in All REmote Robotics
  26. 26. R o b ots At w o r k C o n t r o l l e d I n s i d e t h e b o d y No Place or spacefor 5G technology
  27. 27. new possiBiliTies 5G + Other Wireless Solutions
  28. 28. Broadcasting Malware Responding with updated protection Wider Network Updated Latest Solution Update Dynamic isolation of infected devices and components leading to repair Auto-immunity A mix of clean and infected For more goto UCISA Conference Birmingham May 2018
  29. 29. In this arena of rapidly changing mobile tech T h e S p ect r u m Density of connected things Numberofconnectedthings Distance/Dispersion Many see a picture of mixed Tech like this
  30. 30. G e t t i n g C l o s e r Smart homes, offices, environments
  31. 31. 5G Demands this level of deployment investment
  32. 32. Thank You “From connected body to connected planet”