Policy development using Scottish TIMES


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Policy development using Scottish TIMES

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Policy development using Scottish TIMES

  1. 1. Policy development using the Scottish TIMES model Andrew Mortimer Statistician Office of the Chief Economic Adviser
  2. 2. • Some brief background – GHG emissions in Scotland – The Scottish TIMES model • Scotland’s 3rd report on Climate Change (RPP3). • Engagement with policy officials and analysts • The role of the ‘Senior Suppliers Group’ • Next steps
  3. 3. Electricity Generation in Scotland 2014 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 Nuclear Coal Gas Oil Hydro pumped storage Hydro natural flow Other renewables ElectricityGenerationin2014(GWh)
  4. 4. Scotland showing considerable progress against emissions reduction targets. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 PERCENTAGE REDUCTION TARGETS (from the Baseline, using the 1990-2013 inventory) Using the 1990-2013 inventory, - Baseline was 80.786 MtCO2e. - 2013 was 49.725 MtCO2e This represents a 38.4% reduction from the Baseline Period to 2013. 42% reduction by 2020 (46.856 MtCO2e) 80% reduction by 2050 (16.157 MtCO2e)
  5. 5. Electricity Dispatch Model EDM Housing Model NHM Heat Model Transport Model TMfS Scottish Heat Map Whole-systems Energy Model TIMES Existing Models
  6. 6. Scottish TIMES Development • Development began in May 2015 • International consortium of developers • Largely consistent with UK TIMES • First version of the model delivered Jan. 2016 • Numerous updates since initial delivery.
  7. 7. Internal Engagement • Analysts and policy officials in each directorate involved from the start • Existing models considered for inclusion in Scottish TIMES • All data used in Scottish TIMES verified by sectoral analysts • Since initial model delivery, further rounds of verification and data-improvement.
  8. 8. Policy development cycle TIMES central scenario Policy teams challenge results/outline proposals Generate additional scenarios Senior Suppliers Group Decisions on inter- sectoral trade-offs (Develop new central scenario)
  9. 9. Senior suppliers group • All Directors on the group are part of the same organisation (Scottish Government); or a related organisation • Committed to finding an optimal pathway to achieve Scotland’s challenging climate change targets. • Initial feedback from the first two meetings suggest: – Very impressed by the functionality and insight provided by the TIMES framework; – VEDAViz visuals are proving to be a very effective tool in conveying the complex messages emerging from TIMES
  10. 10. Next steps • Further rounds of the modelling/policy engagement cycle over the summer. • Firm up policies in order to meet the required amount of GHG abatement. • Public engagement on proposals and the outputs of TIMES (late Summer) • Publish the 3rd report of proposals and policies in relation to climate change by end-2016
  11. 11. Very happy to discuss further! Andrew Mortimer andrew.mortimer@gov.scot