SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 24
Download to read offline
Pathways of the
energy transition in
Germany
– an energy system
PD Dr.-Ing. Markus Blesl
74RD SEMI-Annual ETSAP Meeting
Agenda
1. Current situation
2. Setting of frameworks
3. Modelling approach
4. Scenario analysis
5. Conclusion
17.11.2018University of Stuttgart 2
Agenda
1. Current situation
2. Setting of frameworks
3. Modelling approach
4. Scenario analysis
5. Conclusion
17.11.2018University of Stuttgart 3
Year 2020 2030 2040 2050
Red.
comp.
1990
40% 55%
(61%*)
70% 80% bis
95%
German targets
*Conversion-Sector (Electricity; district heat, refineries etc.)
0
100
200
300
400
1990 20102011201220132014201520162017
Kohlen Erdgas Sonstige 2030 target
Current situation: Climate targets & structure commission
• Measurements to achieve
the 2030 targets of the
energy sector including
• a plan to reduce the
electricity generation by
coal with a time schedule
and additional
institutional options
Structure commission (since
7/2018)
CO2 Emission electricity generation [Mt]
coal gas others
Pledge to build no new plants from 2020 on by producers in all
member states except Poland & Greece (Eurelectric)
Coal phase-out plans in EU member states
Own illustration based on
information from Politico &
Eurostat
*share of coal in
electricity production
Agenda
1. Current situation
2. Setting of frameworks
3. Modelling approach
4. Scenario analysis
5. Conclusion
17.11.2018University of Stuttgart 6
Setting the framework
What are the discussion levels?
Alternative burden
sharing options
Additional institutional
options
Assumed as fixed:
climate targets GER
Coalition of the Willing (CoW)
United Europe (Utd-EU)
Influence of European ambition
Climate
action GER
Sectoral
targets (CAP)
Slow coal
phase out (CS)
Cross-sector
targets (CST)
Fast coal
phase out (CP)
Status Quo Europe (limited European ambitions)
Level of EU cooperation influences mitigation cost and achievable
climate targets considerably
Scenario framework
+ further studies, e.g.
German projection
report according to
EUR-Lex - 32013R0525
Projections e.g. on
population, industrial
structure, transport
activity etc.
Certificate
elimiation
Support EE
Scenarios: Germany in EU context
Scenario #1: Germany all alone Scenario #2: Coalition of the
willing
Scenario #3: Europe united
• Implementation of a
national measure (e.g.
regulated phase-out like for
nuclear)
• Other EU member states
according to national plans
• EU level stagnating(?)
• Club of progressive member
states takes joint measures
around EU ETS
• Other EU member states
according to national plans
• EU level stagnating(?)
• EU member states give up
national plans
• Targets on EU level backed
by strong and credible
policy (EU ETS fixed)
• Waterbed effect: Under a joint cap, emission reduction in
one state(s) leads to increase in other state(s)
• Important to consider counter measures like active
managed MSR, minimum price or cancellation of EUAs
• Scenario discussion based on work for the
Agenda
1. Current situation
2. Setting of frameworks
3. Modelling approach
4. Scenario analysis
5. Conclusion
17.11.2018University of Stuttgart 9
10
The Times PanEU Model
Characterization TIMES PanEU
 European energy system model
EU28, Norway, Switzerland, Baden-Württemberg
 Technology-oriented, bottom-up optimization model
with perfect foresight
 Country-specific detailing of the energy generation and
the demand sector, as well as detailed mapping of the
boundary coupling line capacities according to ETSO
 Intertemporal optimization in the
period 2010 – 2050
 12 (up to 280) sub-annual time segments
(four seasonal and three daily segments; five typical
weeks)
 Emissions: Greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O)
 Sector-based: public and industrial energy supply,
industry, households, Commercial and tertiary sector,
transport, agriculture and refineries
 Objective function: minimization of the total costs
(optimization model)
Agenda
1. Current situation
2. Setting of frameworks
3. Modelling approach
4. Scenario analysis
5. Conclusion
17.11.2018University of Stuttgart 11
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2030 2050
MtCO2
EU-28 GHG emissions
D-CAP D-CAP-CP CoW Utd-EU
Options for transformation paths
GHG emissions
• CoW allows to reduce emissions according to the 40% target in the short
term (2030)
• In the long run (2050) a stronger engagement or an EU-wide measure is
necessary, otherwise the 80% target cannot be achieved!
National actions in form of
a „Coalition of the Willing“
(CoW) as a possibility to
bridge the gaps for fulfilling
the EU climate targets
D-CAP D-CAP-CP CoW Utd-EU D-CAPD-CAP-CP CoW Utd-EU
In case waterbed effect can
completely eliminated, GHG
emissions could be lower in
some scenarios
Options for transformation paths
Effects on the German electricity sector
• Electricity prices increase with stronger climate ambitions
• The reduced electricity generation in Germany in most scenarios is partially
replaced by imports basing mainly on non-renewables
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
D-CAP-CP CoW Utd-EU
Average electricity price 2015 –
2050 in %-difference to D-CAP
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2030 2050
Electricity imports in TWh
D-CAP D-CAP-CP CoW Utd-EU
Options for transformation paths
Mitigation costs for Germany
• In the short run (2030) Germany profits from higher overall EU ambitions and joined
activity (Utd-EU)
• In the long run (2050), for achieving the European 80% target, Germany (and the EU)
has to expect a considerable increase in CO2 abatement cost
Compensation costs
not covered
Compensation costs
not covered
0 100 200 300 400 500
D-CAP
D-CAP-CP
CoW
Utd-EU
CO2 prices in €/t in 2050
ETS Sectoral target CoW markup EU target
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
D-CAP
D-CAP-CP
CoW
Utd-EU
CO2 prices in €/t in 2030
ETS Sectoral target CoW markup EU target
Marginal CO2 abatement cost/CO2 prices
in EUR/tCO2 in 2030
Marginal CO2 abatement cost/CO2 prices in
EUR/tCO2 in 2050
Scenario comparison of the GHG emissions of Germany between
sectoral and cross targets in 2030
• Abatement costs in the other sectors are higher as in the conversion sector
• A fast phase out of coal in the power sector will be cost efficiency measure; can
reduce the burden in the other sector and might be therefore reasonable
• The sectoral targets of the conversion sector should be higher
0
40
80
120
160
200
Energiewirtschaft
/ Sonstige
Verkehr Industrie Haushalte /
Gewerbe /
Landwirtschaft
GHGemissions2030
Sektorziele 2030 Kostenoptimale ZieleCost optimal target
IndustryConversion Transport Residential /
Commercial /
Agriculture
Sector targets 2030
Analyzed (regulatory instruments) - Pathway of a coal phase out
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Installedelectricalplantcapacityofcoal
plants[GW]
Decommissioning Slow phase out of coal (D-CAP 2030) Fast phase out of coal
Scenario results – coal replacement options electricity generation
capacity
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400 2010
2015
D-CAP
D-CAP-CS
D-CAP-CS+EE
D-CAP-CP
D-CAP-CP-CF
CST
D-CAP
D-CAP-CS
D-CAP-CS+EE
D-CAP-CP
D-CAP-CP-CF
CST
D-CAP
D-CAP-CS
D-CAP-CS+EE
D-CAP-CP
D-CAP-CP-CF
CST
D-CAP
D2E5W1-KAL
D-CAP-CS+EE
D-CAP-CP
D-CAP-CP-CF
CST
2020 2030 2040 2050
Netelectricitycapacity[GW]
Electricity storage
(excl. pump storage)
Others / non-renew.
waste
Other renew.
energies
Biomass / renew.
waste
Solar Photovoltaik
Wind
Hydro (incl. pump
storage)
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Lignite
Scenario results – coal replacement options electricity generation
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2010
2015
D-CAP
D-CAP-CS
D-CAP-CS+EE
D-CAP-CP
D-CAP-CP-CF
CST
D-CAP
D-CAP-CS
D-CAP-CS+EE
D-CAP-CP
D-CAP-CP-CF
CST
D-CAP
D-CAP-CS
D-CAP-CS+EE
D-CAP-CP
D-CAP-CP-CF
CST
D-CAP
D-CAP-CS
D-CAP-CS+EE
D-CAP-CP
D-CAP-CP-CF
CST
2020 2030 2040 2050
Netelectricity[TWh]
Electricity storage
(excl. pump storage)
Net Imports
Others / Waste non-
ren.
Other Renewables
Biomass / Waste ren.
Solar
Wind offshore
Wind onshore
Hydro incl. pump
storage
Nuclear
Gas CCS
Gas w/o CCS
Oil
Lignite CCS
Lignite w/o CCS
Coal CCS
Coal w/o CCS
0
50
100
150
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Electricitygeneration
coalpowerplant
[TWh/a]
CO2-Preis Ordnungsrecht (langsam)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CO2emissions
[MtCO2]
Rebound of coal and Gas residual amount in the case of a institutional
phase out of coal in comparison with a price driven pathway
Residual amount of emission from gas
Rebound
CO2 price institutional slow phase out
• A fast phase out of coal will increase the electricity generation cost round
about 3%
• The undiscounted cumulative additional cost of the fast phase out
of coal for the energy system of Germany are 41 – 106 Bio. €
(without possible compensation costs)
• This corresponds to an extra payment of 34 – 90 € per household in
Germany
0
2
4
6
8
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Electricitygeneration
cost[ct/kWh]
ohne Kohleausstieg
ordnungsrechtlicher
Kohleausstieg (schnell)
KSP90 mittels CO2-Preis
Without coal
phase out
Electricity generation costs change only a little bit in case of a
phase out of coal
Institutional fast coal
phase out
Sectoral target with CO2
price
• Replacement options: Beside the installation of gas power plants an increase of electricity imports can substitute
coal power plants
• Reinforced installation of renewable electricity generation options in Germany (open competitive bidding for
generation quantities or capacities) can restrict the electricity import
Additional institutional options: Additional Renewable electricity generation
• Beside this effects the independency with the electricity generation by gas combined heat and power
(CHP) and the district heating generation in Germany
300
400
500
600
700
800
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Districtheatinggeneration[PJ/a]
D-CAP-CS D-CAP-CP D-CAP-CS+EE D-CAP-CS+CF
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Netelectricityexpoortin[TWh]
D-CAP-CS D-CAP-CP D-CAP-CS+EE D-CAP-CP-CF
Agenda
1. Current situation
2. Setting of frameworks
3. Modelling approach
4. Scenario analysis
5. Conclusion
17.11.2018University of Stuttgart 22
Conclusions
1. United action on European Union level (Utd EU) is
• preferable for Germany and the EU in the short term AND
• necessary in the long term
2. A Coalition of the Willing (CoW) implementing a minimum price for CO2
OR
a accelerated coal phase out in Germany
• can achieve similar GHG mitigation targets as a united EU approach
only in the short run BUT
• only at higher costs AND
• increases most probably acceptance problems in German coal regions
Different policies and ambitions can achieve the same short term
targets, but cost and acceptance differ significantly!
In the long term stronger ambition is needed!
• Further analysis will be done in the
E-Mail
Telefon +49 (0) 711 685-
Universität Stuttgart
Energiewirtschaft und Systemtechnische Analyse (SAM)
PD Dr.-Ing. Markus Blesl
87 865
Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung (IER)
Markus.Blesl@ier.uni-stuttgart.de
Thank you for your attention !

More Related Content

What's hot

Techno-Economic Modelling of Cogeneration Options for the South African Sugar...
Techno-Economic Modelling of Cogeneration Options for the South African Sugar...Techno-Economic Modelling of Cogeneration Options for the South African Sugar...
Techno-Economic Modelling of Cogeneration Options for the South African Sugar...IEA-ETSAP
 
Scenario analysis of data centres in the Irish energy system
Scenario analysis of data centres in the Irish energy systemScenario analysis of data centres in the Irish energy system
Scenario analysis of data centres in the Irish energy systemIEA-ETSAP
 
Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model
Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES modelGrid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model
Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES modelIEA-ETSAP
 
Modelling alternative fuel production technologies for the Danish energy and ...
Modelling alternative fuel production technologies for the Danish energy and ...Modelling alternative fuel production technologies for the Danish energy and ...
Modelling alternative fuel production technologies for the Danish energy and ...IEA-ETSAP
 
Modelling the cement industry - Energy flows connected to material flows and ...
Modelling the cement industry - Energy flows connected to material flows and ...Modelling the cement industry - Energy flows connected to material flows and ...
Modelling the cement industry - Energy flows connected to material flows and ...IEA-ETSAP
 
Planning a reliable power system with a high share of renewables in France by...
Planning a reliable power system with a high share of renewables in France by...Planning a reliable power system with a high share of renewables in France by...
Planning a reliable power system with a high share of renewables in France by...IEA-ETSAP
 
Impact of technology availability on the transition to a net-zero industry
Impact of technology availability on the transition to a net-zero industryImpact of technology availability on the transition to a net-zero industry
Impact of technology availability on the transition to a net-zero industryIEA-ETSAP
 
How do changes to future technology and fuel developments affect the optimal ...
How do changes to future technology and fuel developments affect the optimal ...How do changes to future technology and fuel developments affect the optimal ...
How do changes to future technology and fuel developments affect the optimal ...IEA-ETSAP
 
Impacts of Czech brown coal mines enlargement: assessment by energy model TIM...
Impacts of Czech brown coal mines enlargement: assessment by energy model TIM...Impacts of Czech brown coal mines enlargement: assessment by energy model TIM...
Impacts of Czech brown coal mines enlargement: assessment by energy model TIM...IEA-ETSAP
 
Hydrogen modelling in TIMES – a summary of the inputs, outputs, and best prac...
Hydrogen modelling in TIMES – a summary of the inputs, outputs, and best prac...Hydrogen modelling in TIMES – a summary of the inputs, outputs, and best prac...
Hydrogen modelling in TIMES – a summary of the inputs, outputs, and best prac...IEA-ETSAP
 
District heating potential in the Italian NECP: assessment through a new resi...
District heating potential in the Italian NECP: assessment through a new resi...District heating potential in the Italian NECP: assessment through a new resi...
District heating potential in the Italian NECP: assessment through a new resi...IEA-ETSAP
 
Assessment of the long-term potential of 'power to hydrogen' in the energy sy...
Assessment of the long-term potential of 'power to hydrogen' in the energy sy...Assessment of the long-term potential of 'power to hydrogen' in the energy sy...
Assessment of the long-term potential of 'power to hydrogen' in the energy sy...IEA-ETSAP
 
Mitigation strategies for transitioning towards ‘net-zero’ energy systems in ...
Mitigation strategies for transitioning towards ‘net-zero’ energy systems in ...Mitigation strategies for transitioning towards ‘net-zero’ energy systems in ...
Mitigation strategies for transitioning towards ‘net-zero’ energy systems in ...IEA-ETSAP
 
Energy Technology Perspectives 2016 - Towards Sustainable Urban Energy System
Energy Technology Perspectives 2016 - Towards Sustainable Urban Energy SystemEnergy Technology Perspectives 2016 - Towards Sustainable Urban Energy System
Energy Technology Perspectives 2016 - Towards Sustainable Urban Energy SystemIEA-ETSAP
 
Energy and climate policies in major European Countries: insights from the PO...
Energy and climate policies in major European Countries: insights from the PO...Energy and climate policies in major European Countries: insights from the PO...
Energy and climate policies in major European Countries: insights from the PO...IEA-ETSAP
 
Working with TIMES and Monte Carlo in a Policy Setting
Working with TIMES and Monte Carlo in a Policy SettingWorking with TIMES and Monte Carlo in a Policy Setting
Working with TIMES and Monte Carlo in a Policy SettingIEA-ETSAP
 
Integration of Renewables in the Swiss Energy System
Integration of Renewables in the Swiss Energy SystemIntegration of Renewables in the Swiss Energy System
Integration of Renewables in the Swiss Energy SystemIEA-ETSAP
 
Energy and environmental impacts of biomass use in the residential Sector: a ...
Energy and environmental impacts of biomass use in the residential Sector: a ...Energy and environmental impacts of biomass use in the residential Sector: a ...
Energy and environmental impacts of biomass use in the residential Sector: a ...IEA-ETSAP
 
Analysis of distribution grid tariffs in the Norwegian energy system
Analysis of distribution grid tariffs in the Norwegian energy systemAnalysis of distribution grid tariffs in the Norwegian energy system
Analysis of distribution grid tariffs in the Norwegian energy systemIEA-ETSAP
 

What's hot (20)

Techno-Economic Modelling of Cogeneration Options for the South African Sugar...
Techno-Economic Modelling of Cogeneration Options for the South African Sugar...Techno-Economic Modelling of Cogeneration Options for the South African Sugar...
Techno-Economic Modelling of Cogeneration Options for the South African Sugar...
 
Scenario analysis of data centres in the Irish energy system
Scenario analysis of data centres in the Irish energy systemScenario analysis of data centres in the Irish energy system
Scenario analysis of data centres in the Irish energy system
 
Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model
Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES modelGrid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model
Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model
 
Modelling alternative fuel production technologies for the Danish energy and ...
Modelling alternative fuel production technologies for the Danish energy and ...Modelling alternative fuel production technologies for the Danish energy and ...
Modelling alternative fuel production technologies for the Danish energy and ...
 
Modelling the cement industry - Energy flows connected to material flows and ...
Modelling the cement industry - Energy flows connected to material flows and ...Modelling the cement industry - Energy flows connected to material flows and ...
Modelling the cement industry - Energy flows connected to material flows and ...
 
Planning a reliable power system with a high share of renewables in France by...
Planning a reliable power system with a high share of renewables in France by...Planning a reliable power system with a high share of renewables in France by...
Planning a reliable power system with a high share of renewables in France by...
 
Impact of technology availability on the transition to a net-zero industry
Impact of technology availability on the transition to a net-zero industryImpact of technology availability on the transition to a net-zero industry
Impact of technology availability on the transition to a net-zero industry
 
How do changes to future technology and fuel developments affect the optimal ...
How do changes to future technology and fuel developments affect the optimal ...How do changes to future technology and fuel developments affect the optimal ...
How do changes to future technology and fuel developments affect the optimal ...
 
Impacts of Czech brown coal mines enlargement: assessment by energy model TIM...
Impacts of Czech brown coal mines enlargement: assessment by energy model TIM...Impacts of Czech brown coal mines enlargement: assessment by energy model TIM...
Impacts of Czech brown coal mines enlargement: assessment by energy model TIM...
 
Smart Energy Systems and Electrolysers in Renewable Energy Systems
Smart Energy Systems and Electrolysers in Renewable Energy SystemsSmart Energy Systems and Electrolysers in Renewable Energy Systems
Smart Energy Systems and Electrolysers in Renewable Energy Systems
 
Hydrogen modelling in TIMES – a summary of the inputs, outputs, and best prac...
Hydrogen modelling in TIMES – a summary of the inputs, outputs, and best prac...Hydrogen modelling in TIMES – a summary of the inputs, outputs, and best prac...
Hydrogen modelling in TIMES – a summary of the inputs, outputs, and best prac...
 
District heating potential in the Italian NECP: assessment through a new resi...
District heating potential in the Italian NECP: assessment through a new resi...District heating potential in the Italian NECP: assessment through a new resi...
District heating potential in the Italian NECP: assessment through a new resi...
 
Assessment of the long-term potential of 'power to hydrogen' in the energy sy...
Assessment of the long-term potential of 'power to hydrogen' in the energy sy...Assessment of the long-term potential of 'power to hydrogen' in the energy sy...
Assessment of the long-term potential of 'power to hydrogen' in the energy sy...
 
Mitigation strategies for transitioning towards ‘net-zero’ energy systems in ...
Mitigation strategies for transitioning towards ‘net-zero’ energy systems in ...Mitigation strategies for transitioning towards ‘net-zero’ energy systems in ...
Mitigation strategies for transitioning towards ‘net-zero’ energy systems in ...
 
Energy Technology Perspectives 2016 - Towards Sustainable Urban Energy System
Energy Technology Perspectives 2016 - Towards Sustainable Urban Energy SystemEnergy Technology Perspectives 2016 - Towards Sustainable Urban Energy System
Energy Technology Perspectives 2016 - Towards Sustainable Urban Energy System
 
Energy and climate policies in major European Countries: insights from the PO...
Energy and climate policies in major European Countries: insights from the PO...Energy and climate policies in major European Countries: insights from the PO...
Energy and climate policies in major European Countries: insights from the PO...
 
Working with TIMES and Monte Carlo in a Policy Setting
Working with TIMES and Monte Carlo in a Policy SettingWorking with TIMES and Monte Carlo in a Policy Setting
Working with TIMES and Monte Carlo in a Policy Setting
 
Integration of Renewables in the Swiss Energy System
Integration of Renewables in the Swiss Energy SystemIntegration of Renewables in the Swiss Energy System
Integration of Renewables in the Swiss Energy System
 
Energy and environmental impacts of biomass use in the residential Sector: a ...
Energy and environmental impacts of biomass use in the residential Sector: a ...Energy and environmental impacts of biomass use in the residential Sector: a ...
Energy and environmental impacts of biomass use in the residential Sector: a ...
 
Analysis of distribution grid tariffs in the Norwegian energy system
Analysis of distribution grid tariffs in the Norwegian energy systemAnalysis of distribution grid tariffs in the Norwegian energy system
Analysis of distribution grid tariffs in the Norwegian energy system
 

Similar to Energy Research at the IER

Optimal allocation of the EU carbon budget
Optimal allocation of the EU carbon budgetOptimal allocation of the EU carbon budget
Optimal allocation of the EU carbon budgetIEA-ETSAP
 
The EU ETS and global level playing field: the carbon leakage list
The EU ETS and global level playing field: the carbon leakage listThe EU ETS and global level playing field: the carbon leakage list
The EU ETS and global level playing field: the carbon leakage listLeonardo ENERGY
 
How can Poland achieve increased GHG emission-reduction targets by 2030?
How can Poland achieve increased GHG emission-reduction targets by 2030?How can Poland achieve increased GHG emission-reduction targets by 2030?
How can Poland achieve increased GHG emission-reduction targets by 2030?Forum Energii
 
Role of power to heat in the energy system of Europe – A first analysis
Role of power to heat in the energy system of Europe – A first analysisRole of power to heat in the energy system of Europe – A first analysis
Role of power to heat in the energy system of Europe – A first analysisIEA-ETSAP
 
Germany, leading the charge on renewables
Germany, leading the charge on renewablesGermany, leading the charge on renewables
Germany, leading the charge on renewablesLeonardo ENERGY
 
Germany, leading the charge on renewables
Germany, leading the charge on renewablesGermany, leading the charge on renewables
Germany, leading the charge on renewablesLeonardo ENERGY
 
GHG emission reduction due to energy efficiency measures under climate policy
GHG emission reduction due to energy efficiency measures under climate policyGHG emission reduction due to energy efficiency measures under climate policy
GHG emission reduction due to energy efficiency measures under climate policyIEA-ETSAP
 
The EU‘s post 2012 Climate Change strategy
The EU‘s post 2012 Climate Change strategyThe EU‘s post 2012 Climate Change strategy
The EU‘s post 2012 Climate Change strategyMondiaal nieuws
 
The EU‘s post 2012 Climate Change strategy
The EU‘s post 2012 Climate Change strategyThe EU‘s post 2012 Climate Change strategy
The EU‘s post 2012 Climate Change strategyguest93922b8
 
Impacts of scenario definitions on CO2 mitigation cost in energy system models
Impacts of scenario definitions on CO2 mitigation cost in energy system modelsImpacts of scenario definitions on CO2 mitigation cost in energy system models
Impacts of scenario definitions on CO2 mitigation cost in energy system modelsIEA-ETSAP
 
Effects of the Paris Agreement on the energy system of Germany - When do we a...
Effects of the Paris Agreement on the energy system of Germany - When do we a...Effects of the Paris Agreement on the energy system of Germany - When do we a...
Effects of the Paris Agreement on the energy system of Germany - When do we a...IEA-ETSAP
 
Introduction to the EU Emission Trading System
Introduction to the EU Emission Trading SystemIntroduction to the EU Emission Trading System
Introduction to the EU Emission Trading SystemLeonardo ENERGY
 
Carsten Rolle, Executive Director WEC Germany
Carsten Rolle, Executive Director WEC Germany Carsten Rolle, Executive Director WEC Germany
Carsten Rolle, Executive Director WEC Germany WEC Italia
 
A TIMES model for Wallonia: description of the modelling approach and analysi...
A TIMES model for Wallonia: description of the modelling approach and analysi...A TIMES model for Wallonia: description of the modelling approach and analysi...
A TIMES model for Wallonia: description of the modelling approach and analysi...IEA-ETSAP
 
Transition to a secure and low-carbon Swiss energy system
Transition to a secure and low-carbon Swiss energy systemTransition to a secure and low-carbon Swiss energy system
Transition to a secure and low-carbon Swiss energy systemIEA-ETSAP
 

Similar to Energy Research at the IER (20)

Optimal allocation of the EU carbon budget
Optimal allocation of the EU carbon budgetOptimal allocation of the EU carbon budget
Optimal allocation of the EU carbon budget
 
The EU ETS and global level playing field: the carbon leakage list
The EU ETS and global level playing field: the carbon leakage listThe EU ETS and global level playing field: the carbon leakage list
The EU ETS and global level playing field: the carbon leakage list
 
How can Poland achieve increased GHG emission-reduction targets by 2030?
How can Poland achieve increased GHG emission-reduction targets by 2030?How can Poland achieve increased GHG emission-reduction targets by 2030?
How can Poland achieve increased GHG emission-reduction targets by 2030?
 
Role of power to heat in the energy system of Europe – A first analysis
Role of power to heat in the energy system of Europe – A first analysisRole of power to heat in the energy system of Europe – A first analysis
Role of power to heat in the energy system of Europe – A first analysis
 
Germany, leading the charge on renewables
Germany, leading the charge on renewablesGermany, leading the charge on renewables
Germany, leading the charge on renewables
 
Germany, leading the charge on renewables
Germany, leading the charge on renewablesGermany, leading the charge on renewables
Germany, leading the charge on renewables
 
Jos Delbeke - EU Climate Change Policy
Jos Delbeke - EU Climate Change PolicyJos Delbeke - EU Climate Change Policy
Jos Delbeke - EU Climate Change Policy
 
GHG emission reduction due to energy efficiency measures under climate policy
GHG emission reduction due to energy efficiency measures under climate policyGHG emission reduction due to energy efficiency measures under climate policy
GHG emission reduction due to energy efficiency measures under climate policy
 
The EU‘s post 2012 Climate Change strategy
The EU‘s post 2012 Climate Change strategyThe EU‘s post 2012 Climate Change strategy
The EU‘s post 2012 Climate Change strategy
 
The EU‘s post 2012 Climate Change strategy
The EU‘s post 2012 Climate Change strategyThe EU‘s post 2012 Climate Change strategy
The EU‘s post 2012 Climate Change strategy
 
EU Energy Policy Strategy: Towards a Low-Carbon Economy
EU Energy Policy Strategy: Towards a Low-Carbon EconomyEU Energy Policy Strategy: Towards a Low-Carbon Economy
EU Energy Policy Strategy: Towards a Low-Carbon Economy
 
Impacts of scenario definitions on CO2 mitigation cost in energy system models
Impacts of scenario definitions on CO2 mitigation cost in energy system modelsImpacts of scenario definitions on CO2 mitigation cost in energy system models
Impacts of scenario definitions on CO2 mitigation cost in energy system models
 
Sgcp13mackenzie
Sgcp13mackenzieSgcp13mackenzie
Sgcp13mackenzie
 
Effects of the Paris Agreement on the energy system of Germany - When do we a...
Effects of the Paris Agreement on the energy system of Germany - When do we a...Effects of the Paris Agreement on the energy system of Germany - When do we a...
Effects of the Paris Agreement on the energy system of Germany - When do we a...
 
Efficiency losses from overlapping regulation of eu carbon emissions
Efficiency losses from overlapping regulation of eu carbon emissionsEfficiency losses from overlapping regulation of eu carbon emissions
Efficiency losses from overlapping regulation of eu carbon emissions
 
Introduction to the EU Emission Trading System
Introduction to the EU Emission Trading SystemIntroduction to the EU Emission Trading System
Introduction to the EU Emission Trading System
 
Carsten Rolle, Executive Director WEC Germany
Carsten Rolle, Executive Director WEC Germany Carsten Rolle, Executive Director WEC Germany
Carsten Rolle, Executive Director WEC Germany
 
A TIMES model for Wallonia: description of the modelling approach and analysi...
A TIMES model for Wallonia: description of the modelling approach and analysi...A TIMES model for Wallonia: description of the modelling approach and analysi...
A TIMES model for Wallonia: description of the modelling approach and analysi...
 
Roadmap for achieving the 70% 2030 greenhouse gas emission reduction target i...
Roadmap for achieving the 70% 2030 greenhouse gas emission reduction target i...Roadmap for achieving the 70% 2030 greenhouse gas emission reduction target i...
Roadmap for achieving the 70% 2030 greenhouse gas emission reduction target i...
 
Transition to a secure and low-carbon Swiss energy system
Transition to a secure and low-carbon Swiss energy systemTransition to a secure and low-carbon Swiss energy system
Transition to a secure and low-carbon Swiss energy system
 

More from IEA-ETSAP

Variable Renewable Energy in China's Transition
Variable Renewable Energy in China's TransitionVariable Renewable Energy in China's Transition
Variable Renewable Energy in China's TransitionIEA-ETSAP
 
The Nordics as a hub for green electricity and fuels
The Nordics as a hub for green electricity and fuelsThe Nordics as a hub for green electricity and fuels
The Nordics as a hub for green electricity and fuelsIEA-ETSAP
 
The role of Norwegian offshore wind in the energy system transition
The role of Norwegian offshore wind in the energy system transitionThe role of Norwegian offshore wind in the energy system transition
The role of Norwegian offshore wind in the energy system transitionIEA-ETSAP
 
Detail representation of molecule flows and chemical sector in TIMES-BE: prog...
Detail representation of molecule flows and chemical sector in TIMES-BE: prog...Detail representation of molecule flows and chemical sector in TIMES-BE: prog...
Detail representation of molecule flows and chemical sector in TIMES-BE: prog...IEA-ETSAP
 
Green hydrogen trade from North Africa to Europe: optional long-term scenario...
Green hydrogen trade from North Africa to Europe: optional long-term scenario...Green hydrogen trade from North Africa to Europe: optional long-term scenario...
Green hydrogen trade from North Africa to Europe: optional long-term scenario...IEA-ETSAP
 
Optimal development of the Canadian forest sector for both climate change mit...
Optimal development of the Canadian forest sector for both climate change mit...Optimal development of the Canadian forest sector for both climate change mit...
Optimal development of the Canadian forest sector for both climate change mit...IEA-ETSAP
 
Presentation on IEA Net Zero Pathways/Roadmap
Presentation on IEA Net Zero Pathways/RoadmapPresentation on IEA Net Zero Pathways/Roadmap
Presentation on IEA Net Zero Pathways/RoadmapIEA-ETSAP
 
Flexibility with renewable(low-carbon) hydrogen
Flexibility with renewable(low-carbon) hydrogenFlexibility with renewable(low-carbon) hydrogen
Flexibility with renewable(low-carbon) hydrogenIEA-ETSAP
 
Bioenergy in energy system models with flexibility
Bioenergy in energy system models with flexibilityBioenergy in energy system models with flexibility
Bioenergy in energy system models with flexibilityIEA-ETSAP
 
Reframing flexibility beyond power - IEA Bioenergy TCP
Reframing flexibility beyond power - IEA Bioenergy TCPReframing flexibility beyond power - IEA Bioenergy TCP
Reframing flexibility beyond power - IEA Bioenergy TCPIEA-ETSAP
 
Decarbonization of heating in the buildings sector: efficiency first vs low-c...
Decarbonization of heating in the buildings sector: efficiency first vs low-c...Decarbonization of heating in the buildings sector: efficiency first vs low-c...
Decarbonization of heating in the buildings sector: efficiency first vs low-c...IEA-ETSAP
 
The Regionalization Tool: spatial representation of TIMES-BE output data in i...
The Regionalization Tool: spatial representation of TIMES-BE output data in i...The Regionalization Tool: spatial representation of TIMES-BE output data in i...
The Regionalization Tool: spatial representation of TIMES-BE output data in i...IEA-ETSAP
 
Synthetic methane production prospective modelling up to 2050 in the European...
Synthetic methane production prospective modelling up to 2050 in the European...Synthetic methane production prospective modelling up to 2050 in the European...
Synthetic methane production prospective modelling up to 2050 in the European...IEA-ETSAP
 
Energy Transition in global Aviation - ETSAP Workshop Turin
Energy Transition in global Aviation - ETSAP Workshop TurinEnergy Transition in global Aviation - ETSAP Workshop Turin
Energy Transition in global Aviation - ETSAP Workshop TurinIEA-ETSAP
 
Integrated Energy and Climate plans: approaches, practices and experiences
Integrated Energy and Climate plans: approaches, practices and experiencesIntegrated Energy and Climate plans: approaches, practices and experiences
Integrated Energy and Climate plans: approaches, practices and experiencesIEA-ETSAP
 
Updates on Veda provided by Amit Kanudia from KanORS-EMR
Updates on Veda provided by Amit Kanudia from KanORS-EMRUpdates on Veda provided by Amit Kanudia from KanORS-EMR
Updates on Veda provided by Amit Kanudia from KanORS-EMRIEA-ETSAP
 
Energy system modeling activities in the MAHTEP Group
Energy system modeling activities in the MAHTEP GroupEnergy system modeling activities in the MAHTEP Group
Energy system modeling activities in the MAHTEP GroupIEA-ETSAP
 
Applying science fiction to approach the future
Applying science fiction to approach the futureApplying science fiction to approach the future
Applying science fiction to approach the futureIEA-ETSAP
 
Will it leak?: Discussions of leakage risk from subsurface storage of carbon ...
Will it leak?: Discussions of leakage risk from subsurface storage of carbon ...Will it leak?: Discussions of leakage risk from subsurface storage of carbon ...
Will it leak?: Discussions of leakage risk from subsurface storage of carbon ...IEA-ETSAP
 
Long-Term Decarbonization Pathways In Emerging Economies: Insights From 12 Mo...
Long-Term Decarbonization Pathways In Emerging Economies: Insights From 12 Mo...Long-Term Decarbonization Pathways In Emerging Economies: Insights From 12 Mo...
Long-Term Decarbonization Pathways In Emerging Economies: Insights From 12 Mo...IEA-ETSAP
 

More from IEA-ETSAP (20)

Variable Renewable Energy in China's Transition
Variable Renewable Energy in China's TransitionVariable Renewable Energy in China's Transition
Variable Renewable Energy in China's Transition
 
The Nordics as a hub for green electricity and fuels
The Nordics as a hub for green electricity and fuelsThe Nordics as a hub for green electricity and fuels
The Nordics as a hub for green electricity and fuels
 
The role of Norwegian offshore wind in the energy system transition
The role of Norwegian offshore wind in the energy system transitionThe role of Norwegian offshore wind in the energy system transition
The role of Norwegian offshore wind in the energy system transition
 
Detail representation of molecule flows and chemical sector in TIMES-BE: prog...
Detail representation of molecule flows and chemical sector in TIMES-BE: prog...Detail representation of molecule flows and chemical sector in TIMES-BE: prog...
Detail representation of molecule flows and chemical sector in TIMES-BE: prog...
 
Green hydrogen trade from North Africa to Europe: optional long-term scenario...
Green hydrogen trade from North Africa to Europe: optional long-term scenario...Green hydrogen trade from North Africa to Europe: optional long-term scenario...
Green hydrogen trade from North Africa to Europe: optional long-term scenario...
 
Optimal development of the Canadian forest sector for both climate change mit...
Optimal development of the Canadian forest sector for both climate change mit...Optimal development of the Canadian forest sector for both climate change mit...
Optimal development of the Canadian forest sector for both climate change mit...
 
Presentation on IEA Net Zero Pathways/Roadmap
Presentation on IEA Net Zero Pathways/RoadmapPresentation on IEA Net Zero Pathways/Roadmap
Presentation on IEA Net Zero Pathways/Roadmap
 
Flexibility with renewable(low-carbon) hydrogen
Flexibility with renewable(low-carbon) hydrogenFlexibility with renewable(low-carbon) hydrogen
Flexibility with renewable(low-carbon) hydrogen
 
Bioenergy in energy system models with flexibility
Bioenergy in energy system models with flexibilityBioenergy in energy system models with flexibility
Bioenergy in energy system models with flexibility
 
Reframing flexibility beyond power - IEA Bioenergy TCP
Reframing flexibility beyond power - IEA Bioenergy TCPReframing flexibility beyond power - IEA Bioenergy TCP
Reframing flexibility beyond power - IEA Bioenergy TCP
 
Decarbonization of heating in the buildings sector: efficiency first vs low-c...
Decarbonization of heating in the buildings sector: efficiency first vs low-c...Decarbonization of heating in the buildings sector: efficiency first vs low-c...
Decarbonization of heating in the buildings sector: efficiency first vs low-c...
 
The Regionalization Tool: spatial representation of TIMES-BE output data in i...
The Regionalization Tool: spatial representation of TIMES-BE output data in i...The Regionalization Tool: spatial representation of TIMES-BE output data in i...
The Regionalization Tool: spatial representation of TIMES-BE output data in i...
 
Synthetic methane production prospective modelling up to 2050 in the European...
Synthetic methane production prospective modelling up to 2050 in the European...Synthetic methane production prospective modelling up to 2050 in the European...
Synthetic methane production prospective modelling up to 2050 in the European...
 
Energy Transition in global Aviation - ETSAP Workshop Turin
Energy Transition in global Aviation - ETSAP Workshop TurinEnergy Transition in global Aviation - ETSAP Workshop Turin
Energy Transition in global Aviation - ETSAP Workshop Turin
 
Integrated Energy and Climate plans: approaches, practices and experiences
Integrated Energy and Climate plans: approaches, practices and experiencesIntegrated Energy and Climate plans: approaches, practices and experiences
Integrated Energy and Climate plans: approaches, practices and experiences
 
Updates on Veda provided by Amit Kanudia from KanORS-EMR
Updates on Veda provided by Amit Kanudia from KanORS-EMRUpdates on Veda provided by Amit Kanudia from KanORS-EMR
Updates on Veda provided by Amit Kanudia from KanORS-EMR
 
Energy system modeling activities in the MAHTEP Group
Energy system modeling activities in the MAHTEP GroupEnergy system modeling activities in the MAHTEP Group
Energy system modeling activities in the MAHTEP Group
 
Applying science fiction to approach the future
Applying science fiction to approach the futureApplying science fiction to approach the future
Applying science fiction to approach the future
 
Will it leak?: Discussions of leakage risk from subsurface storage of carbon ...
Will it leak?: Discussions of leakage risk from subsurface storage of carbon ...Will it leak?: Discussions of leakage risk from subsurface storage of carbon ...
Will it leak?: Discussions of leakage risk from subsurface storage of carbon ...
 
Long-Term Decarbonization Pathways In Emerging Economies: Insights From 12 Mo...
Long-Term Decarbonization Pathways In Emerging Economies: Insights From 12 Mo...Long-Term Decarbonization Pathways In Emerging Economies: Insights From 12 Mo...
Long-Term Decarbonization Pathways In Emerging Economies: Insights From 12 Mo...
 

Recently uploaded

CO-OP4CBD and its role in increasing Science – Policy Interface. Jorge Luis V...
CO-OP4CBD and its role in increasing Science – Policy Interface. Jorge Luis V...CO-OP4CBD and its role in increasing Science – Policy Interface. Jorge Luis V...
CO-OP4CBD and its role in increasing Science – Policy Interface. Jorge Luis V...pensoftservices
 
Biodiversity in CEE countries CBD challenges and opportunities for implement...
Biodiversity in CEE countries CBD challenges and opportunities for implement...Biodiversity in CEE countries CBD challenges and opportunities for implement...
Biodiversity in CEE countries CBD challenges and opportunities for implement...pensoftservices
 
CCXG global forum, April 2024, Thomas Spencer
CCXG global forum, April 2024,  Thomas SpencerCCXG global forum, April 2024,  Thomas Spencer
CCXG global forum, April 2024, Thomas SpencerOECD Environment
 
CCXG global forum, April 2024, Jo Tyndall
CCXG global forum, April 2024,  Jo TyndallCCXG global forum, April 2024,  Jo Tyndall
CCXG global forum, April 2024, Jo TyndallOECD Environment
 
CCXG global forum, April 2024, Manjeet Dhakal
CCXG global forum, April 2024,  Manjeet DhakalCCXG global forum, April 2024,  Manjeet Dhakal
CCXG global forum, April 2024, Manjeet DhakalOECD Environment
 
Little Green Ranger ESG Sustainability Report
Little Green Ranger ESG Sustainability ReportLittle Green Ranger ESG Sustainability Report
Little Green Ranger ESG Sustainability ReportKennethOng48
 
CCXG global forum, April 2024, Luca Lo Re
CCXG global forum, April 2024,  Luca Lo ReCCXG global forum, April 2024,  Luca Lo Re
CCXG global forum, April 2024, Luca Lo ReOECD Environment
 
Poly-_and_perfluoroalkyl_substances_-sources_pathways_and_environmental_data_...
Poly-_and_perfluoroalkyl_substances_-sources_pathways_and_environmental_data_...Poly-_and_perfluoroalkyl_substances_-sources_pathways_and_environmental_data_...
Poly-_and_perfluoroalkyl_substances_-sources_pathways_and_environmental_data_...Eric Liu
 
CCXG global forum, April 2024, Sirini Jeudy-Hugo
CCXG global forum, April 2024,  Sirini Jeudy-HugoCCXG global forum, April 2024,  Sirini Jeudy-Hugo
CCXG global forum, April 2024, Sirini Jeudy-HugoOECD Environment
 
Identifying ecologically or biologically significant marine areas: a national...
Identifying ecologically or biologically significant marine areas: a national...Identifying ecologically or biologically significant marine areas: a national...
Identifying ecologically or biologically significant marine areas: a national...pensoftservices
 
LCCXG global forum, April 2024, Lydie-Line Paroz
LCCXG global forum, April 2024,  Lydie-Line ParozLCCXG global forum, April 2024,  Lydie-Line Paroz
LCCXG global forum, April 2024, Lydie-Line ParozOECD Environment
 
CCXG global forum, April 2024, Watcharin Boonyarit
CCXG global forum, April 2024,  Watcharin BoonyaritCCXG global forum, April 2024,  Watcharin Boonyarit
CCXG global forum, April 2024, Watcharin BoonyaritOECD Environment
 
Title-Role of forestry in restoration of degraded lands.pptx
Title-Role of forestry in restoration of degraded lands.pptxTitle-Role of forestry in restoration of degraded lands.pptx
Title-Role of forestry in restoration of degraded lands.pptxSagar Chaudhary
 
CCXG global forum, April 2024, Chiara Falduto
CCXG global forum, April 2024, Chiara FaldutoCCXG global forum, April 2024, Chiara Falduto
CCXG global forum, April 2024, Chiara FaldutoOECD Environment
 
CCXG global forum, April 2024, Julio Cordano
CCXG global forum, April 2024,  Julio CordanoCCXG global forum, April 2024,  Julio Cordano
CCXG global forum, April 2024, Julio CordanoOECD Environment
 
Issues regarding the provision of the Convention. Introduction to the Text an...
Issues regarding the provision of the Convention. Introduction to the Text an...Issues regarding the provision of the Convention. Introduction to the Text an...
Issues regarding the provision of the Convention. Introduction to the Text an...pensoftservices
 
Get inspired by SYMBA Project: promoting Industrial Symbiosis
Get inspired by SYMBA Project: promoting Industrial SymbiosisGet inspired by SYMBA Project: promoting Industrial Symbiosis
Get inspired by SYMBA Project: promoting Industrial Symbiosissymbaprojecteu
 
Objectives and main international biodiversity events during the upcoming Hun...
Objectives and main international biodiversity events during the upcoming Hun...Objectives and main international biodiversity events during the upcoming Hun...
Objectives and main international biodiversity events during the upcoming Hun...pensoftservices
 
The KM-GBF monitoring framework –status & key messages. Joachim Töpper and Ha...
The KM-GBF monitoring framework –status & key messages. Joachim Töpper and Ha...The KM-GBF monitoring framework –status & key messages. Joachim Töpper and Ha...
The KM-GBF monitoring framework –status & key messages. Joachim Töpper and Ha...pensoftservices
 
CCXG global forum, April 2024, David Mutisya
CCXG global forum, April 2024,  David MutisyaCCXG global forum, April 2024,  David Mutisya
CCXG global forum, April 2024, David MutisyaOECD Environment
 

Recently uploaded (20)

CO-OP4CBD and its role in increasing Science – Policy Interface. Jorge Luis V...
CO-OP4CBD and its role in increasing Science – Policy Interface. Jorge Luis V...CO-OP4CBD and its role in increasing Science – Policy Interface. Jorge Luis V...
CO-OP4CBD and its role in increasing Science – Policy Interface. Jorge Luis V...
 
Biodiversity in CEE countries CBD challenges and opportunities for implement...
Biodiversity in CEE countries CBD challenges and opportunities for implement...Biodiversity in CEE countries CBD challenges and opportunities for implement...
Biodiversity in CEE countries CBD challenges and opportunities for implement...
 
CCXG global forum, April 2024, Thomas Spencer
CCXG global forum, April 2024,  Thomas SpencerCCXG global forum, April 2024,  Thomas Spencer
CCXG global forum, April 2024, Thomas Spencer
 
CCXG global forum, April 2024, Jo Tyndall
CCXG global forum, April 2024,  Jo TyndallCCXG global forum, April 2024,  Jo Tyndall
CCXG global forum, April 2024, Jo Tyndall
 
CCXG global forum, April 2024, Manjeet Dhakal
CCXG global forum, April 2024,  Manjeet DhakalCCXG global forum, April 2024,  Manjeet Dhakal
CCXG global forum, April 2024, Manjeet Dhakal
 
Little Green Ranger ESG Sustainability Report
Little Green Ranger ESG Sustainability ReportLittle Green Ranger ESG Sustainability Report
Little Green Ranger ESG Sustainability Report
 
CCXG global forum, April 2024, Luca Lo Re
CCXG global forum, April 2024,  Luca Lo ReCCXG global forum, April 2024,  Luca Lo Re
CCXG global forum, April 2024, Luca Lo Re
 
Poly-_and_perfluoroalkyl_substances_-sources_pathways_and_environmental_data_...
Poly-_and_perfluoroalkyl_substances_-sources_pathways_and_environmental_data_...Poly-_and_perfluoroalkyl_substances_-sources_pathways_and_environmental_data_...
Poly-_and_perfluoroalkyl_substances_-sources_pathways_and_environmental_data_...
 
CCXG global forum, April 2024, Sirini Jeudy-Hugo
CCXG global forum, April 2024,  Sirini Jeudy-HugoCCXG global forum, April 2024,  Sirini Jeudy-Hugo
CCXG global forum, April 2024, Sirini Jeudy-Hugo
 
Identifying ecologically or biologically significant marine areas: a national...
Identifying ecologically or biologically significant marine areas: a national...Identifying ecologically or biologically significant marine areas: a national...
Identifying ecologically or biologically significant marine areas: a national...
 
LCCXG global forum, April 2024, Lydie-Line Paroz
LCCXG global forum, April 2024,  Lydie-Line ParozLCCXG global forum, April 2024,  Lydie-Line Paroz
LCCXG global forum, April 2024, Lydie-Line Paroz
 
CCXG global forum, April 2024, Watcharin Boonyarit
CCXG global forum, April 2024,  Watcharin BoonyaritCCXG global forum, April 2024,  Watcharin Boonyarit
CCXG global forum, April 2024, Watcharin Boonyarit
 
Title-Role of forestry in restoration of degraded lands.pptx
Title-Role of forestry in restoration of degraded lands.pptxTitle-Role of forestry in restoration of degraded lands.pptx
Title-Role of forestry in restoration of degraded lands.pptx
 
CCXG global forum, April 2024, Chiara Falduto
CCXG global forum, April 2024, Chiara FaldutoCCXG global forum, April 2024, Chiara Falduto
CCXG global forum, April 2024, Chiara Falduto
 
CCXG global forum, April 2024, Julio Cordano
CCXG global forum, April 2024,  Julio CordanoCCXG global forum, April 2024,  Julio Cordano
CCXG global forum, April 2024, Julio Cordano
 
Issues regarding the provision of the Convention. Introduction to the Text an...
Issues regarding the provision of the Convention. Introduction to the Text an...Issues regarding the provision of the Convention. Introduction to the Text an...
Issues regarding the provision of the Convention. Introduction to the Text an...
 
Get inspired by SYMBA Project: promoting Industrial Symbiosis
Get inspired by SYMBA Project: promoting Industrial SymbiosisGet inspired by SYMBA Project: promoting Industrial Symbiosis
Get inspired by SYMBA Project: promoting Industrial Symbiosis
 
Objectives and main international biodiversity events during the upcoming Hun...
Objectives and main international biodiversity events during the upcoming Hun...Objectives and main international biodiversity events during the upcoming Hun...
Objectives and main international biodiversity events during the upcoming Hun...
 
The KM-GBF monitoring framework –status & key messages. Joachim Töpper and Ha...
The KM-GBF monitoring framework –status & key messages. Joachim Töpper and Ha...The KM-GBF monitoring framework –status & key messages. Joachim Töpper and Ha...
The KM-GBF monitoring framework –status & key messages. Joachim Töpper and Ha...
 
CCXG global forum, April 2024, David Mutisya
CCXG global forum, April 2024,  David MutisyaCCXG global forum, April 2024,  David Mutisya
CCXG global forum, April 2024, David Mutisya
 

Energy Research at the IER

  • 1. Pathways of the energy transition in Germany – an energy system PD Dr.-Ing. Markus Blesl 74RD SEMI-Annual ETSAP Meeting
  • 2. Agenda 1. Current situation 2. Setting of frameworks 3. Modelling approach 4. Scenario analysis 5. Conclusion 17.11.2018University of Stuttgart 2
  • 3. Agenda 1. Current situation 2. Setting of frameworks 3. Modelling approach 4. Scenario analysis 5. Conclusion 17.11.2018University of Stuttgart 3
  • 4. Year 2020 2030 2040 2050 Red. comp. 1990 40% 55% (61%*) 70% 80% bis 95% German targets *Conversion-Sector (Electricity; district heat, refineries etc.) 0 100 200 300 400 1990 20102011201220132014201520162017 Kohlen Erdgas Sonstige 2030 target Current situation: Climate targets & structure commission • Measurements to achieve the 2030 targets of the energy sector including • a plan to reduce the electricity generation by coal with a time schedule and additional institutional options Structure commission (since 7/2018) CO2 Emission electricity generation [Mt] coal gas others
  • 5. Pledge to build no new plants from 2020 on by producers in all member states except Poland & Greece (Eurelectric) Coal phase-out plans in EU member states Own illustration based on information from Politico & Eurostat *share of coal in electricity production
  • 6. Agenda 1. Current situation 2. Setting of frameworks 3. Modelling approach 4. Scenario analysis 5. Conclusion 17.11.2018University of Stuttgart 6
  • 7. Setting the framework What are the discussion levels? Alternative burden sharing options Additional institutional options Assumed as fixed: climate targets GER Coalition of the Willing (CoW) United Europe (Utd-EU) Influence of European ambition Climate action GER Sectoral targets (CAP) Slow coal phase out (CS) Cross-sector targets (CST) Fast coal phase out (CP) Status Quo Europe (limited European ambitions) Level of EU cooperation influences mitigation cost and achievable climate targets considerably Scenario framework + further studies, e.g. German projection report according to EUR-Lex - 32013R0525 Projections e.g. on population, industrial structure, transport activity etc. Certificate elimiation Support EE
  • 8. Scenarios: Germany in EU context Scenario #1: Germany all alone Scenario #2: Coalition of the willing Scenario #3: Europe united • Implementation of a national measure (e.g. regulated phase-out like for nuclear) • Other EU member states according to national plans • EU level stagnating(?) • Club of progressive member states takes joint measures around EU ETS • Other EU member states according to national plans • EU level stagnating(?) • EU member states give up national plans • Targets on EU level backed by strong and credible policy (EU ETS fixed) • Waterbed effect: Under a joint cap, emission reduction in one state(s) leads to increase in other state(s) • Important to consider counter measures like active managed MSR, minimum price or cancellation of EUAs • Scenario discussion based on work for the
  • 9. Agenda 1. Current situation 2. Setting of frameworks 3. Modelling approach 4. Scenario analysis 5. Conclusion 17.11.2018University of Stuttgart 9
  • 10. 10 The Times PanEU Model Characterization TIMES PanEU  European energy system model EU28, Norway, Switzerland, Baden-Württemberg  Technology-oriented, bottom-up optimization model with perfect foresight  Country-specific detailing of the energy generation and the demand sector, as well as detailed mapping of the boundary coupling line capacities according to ETSO  Intertemporal optimization in the period 2010 – 2050  12 (up to 280) sub-annual time segments (four seasonal and three daily segments; five typical weeks)  Emissions: Greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O)  Sector-based: public and industrial energy supply, industry, households, Commercial and tertiary sector, transport, agriculture and refineries  Objective function: minimization of the total costs (optimization model)
  • 11. Agenda 1. Current situation 2. Setting of frameworks 3. Modelling approach 4. Scenario analysis 5. Conclusion 17.11.2018University of Stuttgart 11
  • 12. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2030 2050 MtCO2 EU-28 GHG emissions D-CAP D-CAP-CP CoW Utd-EU Options for transformation paths GHG emissions • CoW allows to reduce emissions according to the 40% target in the short term (2030) • In the long run (2050) a stronger engagement or an EU-wide measure is necessary, otherwise the 80% target cannot be achieved! National actions in form of a „Coalition of the Willing“ (CoW) as a possibility to bridge the gaps for fulfilling the EU climate targets D-CAP D-CAP-CP CoW Utd-EU D-CAPD-CAP-CP CoW Utd-EU In case waterbed effect can completely eliminated, GHG emissions could be lower in some scenarios
  • 13. Options for transformation paths Effects on the German electricity sector • Electricity prices increase with stronger climate ambitions • The reduced electricity generation in Germany in most scenarios is partially replaced by imports basing mainly on non-renewables 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% D-CAP-CP CoW Utd-EU Average electricity price 2015 – 2050 in %-difference to D-CAP 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2030 2050 Electricity imports in TWh D-CAP D-CAP-CP CoW Utd-EU
  • 14. Options for transformation paths Mitigation costs for Germany • In the short run (2030) Germany profits from higher overall EU ambitions and joined activity (Utd-EU) • In the long run (2050), for achieving the European 80% target, Germany (and the EU) has to expect a considerable increase in CO2 abatement cost Compensation costs not covered Compensation costs not covered 0 100 200 300 400 500 D-CAP D-CAP-CP CoW Utd-EU CO2 prices in €/t in 2050 ETS Sectoral target CoW markup EU target 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 D-CAP D-CAP-CP CoW Utd-EU CO2 prices in €/t in 2030 ETS Sectoral target CoW markup EU target Marginal CO2 abatement cost/CO2 prices in EUR/tCO2 in 2030 Marginal CO2 abatement cost/CO2 prices in EUR/tCO2 in 2050
  • 15. Scenario comparison of the GHG emissions of Germany between sectoral and cross targets in 2030 • Abatement costs in the other sectors are higher as in the conversion sector • A fast phase out of coal in the power sector will be cost efficiency measure; can reduce the burden in the other sector and might be therefore reasonable • The sectoral targets of the conversion sector should be higher 0 40 80 120 160 200 Energiewirtschaft / Sonstige Verkehr Industrie Haushalte / Gewerbe / Landwirtschaft GHGemissions2030 Sektorziele 2030 Kostenoptimale ZieleCost optimal target IndustryConversion Transport Residential / Commercial / Agriculture Sector targets 2030
  • 16. Analyzed (regulatory instruments) - Pathway of a coal phase out 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Installedelectricalplantcapacityofcoal plants[GW] Decommissioning Slow phase out of coal (D-CAP 2030) Fast phase out of coal
  • 17. Scenario results – coal replacement options electricity generation capacity 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2010 2015 D-CAP D-CAP-CS D-CAP-CS+EE D-CAP-CP D-CAP-CP-CF CST D-CAP D-CAP-CS D-CAP-CS+EE D-CAP-CP D-CAP-CP-CF CST D-CAP D-CAP-CS D-CAP-CS+EE D-CAP-CP D-CAP-CP-CF CST D-CAP D2E5W1-KAL D-CAP-CS+EE D-CAP-CP D-CAP-CP-CF CST 2020 2030 2040 2050 Netelectricitycapacity[GW] Electricity storage (excl. pump storage) Others / non-renew. waste Other renew. energies Biomass / renew. waste Solar Photovoltaik Wind Hydro (incl. pump storage) Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Lignite
  • 18. Scenario results – coal replacement options electricity generation -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2010 2015 D-CAP D-CAP-CS D-CAP-CS+EE D-CAP-CP D-CAP-CP-CF CST D-CAP D-CAP-CS D-CAP-CS+EE D-CAP-CP D-CAP-CP-CF CST D-CAP D-CAP-CS D-CAP-CS+EE D-CAP-CP D-CAP-CP-CF CST D-CAP D-CAP-CS D-CAP-CS+EE D-CAP-CP D-CAP-CP-CF CST 2020 2030 2040 2050 Netelectricity[TWh] Electricity storage (excl. pump storage) Net Imports Others / Waste non- ren. Other Renewables Biomass / Waste ren. Solar Wind offshore Wind onshore Hydro incl. pump storage Nuclear Gas CCS Gas w/o CCS Oil Lignite CCS Lignite w/o CCS Coal CCS Coal w/o CCS
  • 19. 0 50 100 150 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Electricitygeneration coalpowerplant [TWh/a] CO2-Preis Ordnungsrecht (langsam) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 CO2emissions [MtCO2] Rebound of coal and Gas residual amount in the case of a institutional phase out of coal in comparison with a price driven pathway Residual amount of emission from gas Rebound CO2 price institutional slow phase out
  • 20. • A fast phase out of coal will increase the electricity generation cost round about 3% • The undiscounted cumulative additional cost of the fast phase out of coal for the energy system of Germany are 41 – 106 Bio. € (without possible compensation costs) • This corresponds to an extra payment of 34 – 90 € per household in Germany 0 2 4 6 8 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Electricitygeneration cost[ct/kWh] ohne Kohleausstieg ordnungsrechtlicher Kohleausstieg (schnell) KSP90 mittels CO2-Preis Without coal phase out Electricity generation costs change only a little bit in case of a phase out of coal Institutional fast coal phase out Sectoral target with CO2 price
  • 21. • Replacement options: Beside the installation of gas power plants an increase of electricity imports can substitute coal power plants • Reinforced installation of renewable electricity generation options in Germany (open competitive bidding for generation quantities or capacities) can restrict the electricity import Additional institutional options: Additional Renewable electricity generation • Beside this effects the independency with the electricity generation by gas combined heat and power (CHP) and the district heating generation in Germany 300 400 500 600 700 800 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Districtheatinggeneration[PJ/a] D-CAP-CS D-CAP-CP D-CAP-CS+EE D-CAP-CS+CF -140 -120 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Netelectricityexpoortin[TWh] D-CAP-CS D-CAP-CP D-CAP-CS+EE D-CAP-CP-CF
  • 22. Agenda 1. Current situation 2. Setting of frameworks 3. Modelling approach 4. Scenario analysis 5. Conclusion 17.11.2018University of Stuttgart 22
  • 23. Conclusions 1. United action on European Union level (Utd EU) is • preferable for Germany and the EU in the short term AND • necessary in the long term 2. A Coalition of the Willing (CoW) implementing a minimum price for CO2 OR a accelerated coal phase out in Germany • can achieve similar GHG mitigation targets as a united EU approach only in the short run BUT • only at higher costs AND • increases most probably acceptance problems in German coal regions Different policies and ambitions can achieve the same short term targets, but cost and acceptance differ significantly! In the long term stronger ambition is needed! • Further analysis will be done in the
  • 24. E-Mail Telefon +49 (0) 711 685- Universität Stuttgart Energiewirtschaft und Systemtechnische Analyse (SAM) PD Dr.-Ing. Markus Blesl 87 865 Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung (IER) Markus.Blesl@ier.uni-stuttgart.de Thank you for your attention !