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Mr. Paul VAN DEN OOSERTKAMP - Global trends and developments in the renewable energy domain (Netherlands)
- 1. www.ecn.nl Global trends and developments in the renewable energy domain Paul van den Oosterkamp ECN Policy Studies Morocco – ECN-IRESEN Workshop Rabat, 16 November 2015
- 2. Content • Global investment trends • The link with the climate debate • Key technology trends • Key issues in strategy , implementation and planning – Economics, generation of jobs – Integration in the infrastructure – Sustainability • Concluding remarks 2
- 3. Content • Global investment trends • The link with the climate debate • Key technology trends • Key issues in strategy , implementation and planning – Economics, generation of jobs – Integration in the infrastructure – Sustainability • Concluding remarks 3
- 4. Investments trends (1): • Are again picking up after some dips in 2012, 2013 Source: UNEP-BNEF, 2015 4
- 5. Investment trends (2) • With increasing investment in developing countries Source: UNEP-BNEF, 2015 5
- 6. Investment trends (3) • And largest growth in new investment for solar and wind: Source: UNEP-BNEF, 2015 6
- 7. Installed RES capacity in the world Source : REN21, 2015 7
- 8. Investment trends (4) • And different investment patterns by region : 8
- 9. Content • Global investment trends • The link with the climate debate • Key technology trends • Key issues in strategy , implementation and planning – Economics, generation of jobs – Integration in the infrastructure – Sustainability • Concluding remarks 9
- 10. The link with the climate debate (1) • The growth in investment in RES is a boost for investor confidence, despite 50% drop in oil price • Renewables play an increasing important role in developing a low carbon economy and will be first choice for electricity in the long term (2050) • But: renewables excl. large scale hydro are currently still only 9% of global electricity generation • So mobilization of financial markets will be crucial to support further expanding growth of role for renewables • And a price on carbon will help to establish a level playing field • Shared vision : stay within 2 degrees C 10
- 11. The link with the Climate debate (2) • In Paris (COP 21), over 200 countries will endeavour to sign a binding agreement on limiting carbon emisions • IEA World Energy Outlook 2015 is moderately positive on Paris meeting : Source : IEA 11
- 12. Content • Global investment trends • The link with the climate debate • Key technology trends • Key issues in strategy , implementation and planning – Economics, generation of jobs – Integration in the infrastructure – Sustainability • Concluding remarks 12
- 13. Key technology trends : solar PV • Spectacular cost reduction for solar : Source : Fraunhofer 13
- 14. The PV value chain Source : ECN 14
- 15. Recently announced contract prices for renewable power Source : IEA Mid Renewables Medium Term Market Report (2015) 15
- 16. Keys technology trends : Biomass : the carbon game Source : ECN 16
- 17. Deciduous trees (beech, poplar, oak,..) 41-49% cellulose 24-34% hemicellulose 20-26% lignin Coniferous trees (spruce, pine, taxus,…) 41-51% cellulose 12-24% hemicellulose 27-33% lignin Biomass contains valuable C-based molecular capital Example: lignocellulosic biomass Herbaceous plants (straw, grass, hay, corn stover,..) 27-39% cellulose 20-34% hemicellulose 13-19% lignin 1717
- 18. Applications for lignin bio-plastics bio-char for soil improvement base & specialty chemicals bio-bitumen for green asphalt bio-resins for wood-adhesives bio-fuel for CHP O O OH fuel-additives O O OH O OH O OO OO OH OH OO OHOH O OH O OH OH OH OH OH OH Oguaiacols syringols alkylphenols catechols high volume - low value market 100 €/t low volume - high value market 10.000 €/t activated carbon, carbon-fibres and carbon-black monomeric phenols from the pyrolysis of lignin oligomeric fragments from the pyrolysis of lignin additives for flooring material 18
- 19. Biomass and waste gasification • Efficient power generation with gas engine or turbine • Production of BioMethane • (Co-)production of chemicals • Gas cleaning (incl. tar removal) 19
- 20. Key technology trends : wind energy Source : IRENA Learning curve for onshore wind turbines : 20
- 21. Key technology trends (4) So far; limited data to calculate learning effect Source : ECN 21
- 22. Fully Integrated wind farm design, Example ‘Roadmap for the Future’ 22
- 23. Cost of offshore wind Source : IEA Renewable energy Mid Term Market Report (2015) Offshore wind investment costs are expected to decrease with the deployment of larger power plants, increasing competition among turbine manufacturers and providers of other supply chain elements, the standardization of some foundation structures, and more efficient O&M. 23
- 24. Content • Global investment trends • The link with the climate debate • Key technology trends • Key issues in strategy , implementation and planning – Economics, generation of jobs – Integration in the infrastructure – Sustainability • Concluding remarks 24
- 25. Economics and renewables • Balance of payment, saving on importing oil and fossil fuels • Generation of jobs – For different parts of the value chain : R&D, manufacturing, installation, service and maintenance • Tailoring to the local situation – Adapting of equipment – Certification to account for local climate circumstances 25
- 26. Integrating the infrastructure : Renewable energy and the grid • “ Having a solar panel that isn’t connected to the grid is like having a computer that’s not connected to the internet” • With a higher % of renewables, the grid and support technologies as electricity storage become critical, and smart solutions become necessary • DOE accounts costs of 2-3 $ct/kWh due to cope with intermittency 26
- 27. Options for the grid variability • Quick response sources : a fast ramp up of gas-fired power plants, pumped hydro storage • Demand response, making use of smart meters • Market coupling 27
- 28. Sustainability • Looking at the complete life cycle and value chain • Considering (replacement of) scarce materials (solar cells, drive train wind turbines) or materials with an environmental concern (e.g. Cd) • Improving air quality in cities 28
- 29. Content • Global investment trends • The link with the climate debate • Key technology trends • Key issues in strategy , implementation and planning – Economics, generation of jobs – Integration in the infrastructure – Sustainability • Concluding remarks 29
- 30. Concluding remarks • Renewable energy has become main stream technology • Further costs decline and technology learning will make renewables a competitive option for power supply • Arranging finance for the further deployment of renewables is critical • A smart system integration of renewables will become more critical, but is affordable in terms of cost • Renewable energy can give a boost to local economic activity • Technology needs tailoring to local circumstances • A solid cooperation between Morocco and Netherlands can address most of these issues 30
- 31. City of the Sun, Municipality of Heerhugowaard, NL (photo courtesy Kuiper Compagnon 31
- 32. reserve 32
- 33. reserve 33
Editor's Notes
- In this presentation, I will try to sketch the overall playing field of renewable energy, showing renewable energy has become main stream energy resource, with strong growth potential, driven by cost reduction and by environmental concerns (climate change, air quality).
- This slide shows the outline of my presentation, I will try to sketch the larger context of this workshop
- This slide shows the global new investment in renewable energy, in bio$, by sources of asset finance (financing for which assets are converted into working cash in exchange for a security interest in those assets). For example pension funds, traditional funds, crowd funding. The dips in investment were related to oversupply in PV market and to general economic malaise. Read more: http://www.investorwords.com/284/asset_financing.html#ixzz3rApxuqBI
- This figure shows that renewable energy technologies have spread from the early adopter countries in Europe and US to more and more parts of the world, also driven by lower manufacturing costs in some parts of the world. So in 2014, the split of investment was almost equal.
- This slide shows that wind and solar are the technologies with the strongest growth, the other technologies do fall behind
- Excluding hydropower (1,055 GW)
- China and SE Asia show a much stronger growth than US, Europe and Middle East
- A low oil price will also lower cost of natural gas, which is, in many countries, a source for generating electricity, and as such, in competition with solar and wind. However, gas will also remain an asset to manage the variability solar and wind.
- WEO 2015 was released on November 10, 2015. COP is due in November- December, climate finance gap estimated at 5 trillion $
- Solar PV has dramatically reduced in cost over the last years, partly a result of oversupply but more importantly, the learning effect of about 20 %, so for each doubling of installed capacity, we see a 20 % reduction in cost. Still, in long term, a further rise in efficiency expected (e.g. tandem cells : Si based with second layer of e.g. perovskites)
- This picture shows the value chain for solar PV and also is a helpful tool to determine for a country or company in which segment of the value chain the added value is the most. Value chain can be designed for standard Si based solar cells, but also for thin film solar cells
- Blue is wind power, orange is utility solar PV, PPA (Purchase Power Agreement). In 2014, PV passed the 1% of total electricity supply
- There are many sources for biomass (first and second generation) and many products (electricity, heat, chemicals). Biomass is building block for biobased economy and interwoven with already existing (petro)chemical industry.
- Biomass contains valuable building blocks for further conversion to chemicals, lignin is one of those buiding blocks. Lignin is an aromatic compound that gives wood its strength.
- This slide shows the different uses for lignin, from energy to special chemicals
- Subject of investigation in the field of gasification
- This is the learning curve for onshore wind, about 8 % learning rate, so for each doubling in installed capacity, a 8 % drop in price.
- Learning effect of off shore wind limited, due to limited data set
- A more integrated design approach with dedicated services in all elements of the value chain, will lead to cost reduction, to be monitored closely
- Also, prediction of wind energy output a few days ahead is now far better than it was five years ago
- Generation of jobs can be coupled with scenario modelling These last topic will be addressed in the afternoon with the example of solar PV
- Until 10-15 % of RES supply the electricity grid can cope with the variability
- Demand response : users are paid to switch off equipment when there is excess electricity demand Market coupling : price signals across markets line up with the actual supply and demand conditions
- Using LCA tools
- I hope I have given you the framework of the global playing field for renewables. There are huge opportunities present to take part in this strong growing business. In the afternoon , we will explore several concrete cases for cooperation which fit in this overall picture.
- Asset financing scheme and value chain
- LCOE, for off shore wind only recently some drop in LCOE cost