Development of the pathways to achieve SE4ALL 2030 objectives

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Development of the pathways to achieve SE4ALL 2030 objectives

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Development of the pathways to achieve SE4ALL 2030 objectives

  1. 1. DEVELOPMENT OF PATHWAYS TO ACHIEVE THE SE4ALL ENERGY EFFICIENCY OBJECTIVE: Global and regional potential for energy efficiency improvements J. Gregg, O. Solér, O. Balyk, C. Cabrera Pérez, S. La Greca 68th Semi-Annual ETSAP Meeting Sophia Antipolis, France
  2. 2. UN SE4ALL objectives The 2030 objectives of the SE4ALL: 1) universal access to modern energy services 2) a doubling of the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency 3) a doubling of the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix
  3. 3. Guiding Question/ Objective To determine what additional policy measures and technological developments are necessary in order to achieve the 2030 SE4ALL objectives for • energy efficiency, • renewable energy, and • universal access to modern energy services. Related questions: • Regional and sectoral EE potential • Effect on emissions and climate targets • Co-Compatibility/ Synergy of targets
  4. 4. Method Changes in: energy savings, costs, tech profile, energy intensity, tech penetration, GHG concentration, etc. Alternative Pathway Reference Scenario 2030: -universal access -renewable energy targets -energy intensity targets Current: -carbon price -energy efficiency policies -traditional biomass use -technology profiles Alternative Scenario ETSAP-TIAM Reference Pathway Assessment of Pathway ETSAP-TIAM
  5. 5. Scenarios / Pathways • Extensive scenario analysis conducted by IEA and IIASA in the literature, considering hundreds of scenarios and determining whether or not they meet the SE4ALL objectives. • Current policies for EE, RE, and carbon are used to create the reference pathway. These inputs are included in all model runs. • Alternative pathways are fixed exogenous inputs • RE pathway from IRENA • EE pathway a linear approach to 2.6% EIIR (Energy Intensity Improvement Rate) by 2030. • Energy Access
  6. 6. Model Runs • Reference - incl. current carbon policy, energy efficiency policy, energy efficiency barriers, and renewable energy share. • Energy Efficiency (EE) - Achieve 2.6% EIIR by 2030 (this target approached linearly in the pathway) • Renewable Energy (RE) - renewable energy targets such that the share of global renewable energy is doubled by 2030. Region-specific targets follow those outlined by International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) global renewable roadmap (REMap2030). • EE and RE - combines the constraints from both the energy efficiency and renewable energy scenarios. • EE, RE and Energy Access (EA) – increased electricity demand and phasing out of traditional biomass in addition to EE and RE constraints
  7. 7. ETSAP-TIAM Regions ETSAP-TIAM Regions AFR Africa AUS Australia & NZ CAN Canada CHI China CSA Central and South America EEU Eastern Europe FSU Former Soviet Union IND India JPN Japan MEA Middle East MEX Mexico ODA Other Developing Asia SKO South Korea USA United States WEU Western Europe
  8. 8. ETSAP-TIAM Structure Climate Module Atm. Conc. ΔForcing ΔTemp Used for reporting & setting targets Biomass Potential Renewable Potential Nuclear Fossil Fuel Reserves (oil, coal, gas) Extraction Upstream Fuels Trade Secondary Transformation OPEC/ NON-OPEC regrouping Electricity Fuels Electricity Cogeneration Heat Hydrogen production and distribution End Use Fuels Industrial Service Composition Auto Production Cogeneration Carbon capture CH4 options Carbon sequestration Terrestrial sequestration Landfills Manure Bio burning, rice, enteric ferm Wastewater CH4 options N2O options CH4 options OI**** GA**** CO**** Trade ELC*** WIN SOL GEO TDL BIO*** NUC HYD BIO*** HETHET ELC ELC SYNH2 BIO*** CO2 ELC GAS*** COA*** Industrial Tech. Commercial Tech. Transport Tech. Residential Tech. Agriculture Tech. I*** I** (6) T** (16)R** (11)C** (8)A** (1) INDELC INDELC IS** Demands IND*** COM***AGR*** TRA***RES*** Non-energy sectors (CH4) OIL***
  9. 9. Time frame • ETSAP-TIAM is calibrated to IEA 2005 data and this is the model base year • Demand driver data were updated to 2010 data (IEA, World Bank, OECD) • Modelling done on 5-year time steps until 2030.
  10. 10. 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 AFR AUS CAN CHI CSA EEU FSU IND JPN MEA MEX ODA SKO USA WEU Global Population Indices 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 AFR AUS CAN CHI CSA EEU FSU IND JPN MEA MEX ODA SKO USA WEU Global GDP PPP Indices 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 AFR AUS CAN CHI CSA EEU FSU IND JPN MEA MEX ODA SKO USA WEU Global Per Capita GDP Indices 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 AFR AUS CAN CHI CSA EEU FSU IND JPN MEA MEX ODA SKO USA WEU Global Size of Households
  11. 11. Details on Sectors • Buildings (Residential and Commercial) • Building envelope efficiency added as an option for investment • Traditional biomass use in developed regions separated and phased out for residential cooking, heating, and hot water • Transport • Updated, new efficiency measures included for gasoline and diesel ICE (from Tom Kober, ECN) • Includes Hybrids, EV and Hydrogen • Industry • Updated to allow for investments in energy efficiency (from Tom Kober, ECN) – Non-metalic minerals – Chemicals – Non-ferrous metals – Pulp and paper – Other industries
  12. 12. Energy Efficiency in Buildings RESBEI COMBEI 𝑅𝐸𝑆𝐻𝑆 𝑅𝐸𝑆𝐶𝑆 Heat pumps Chillers Others tech Residential space heating demand Residential space cooling demand Heat pumps Wood stoves Others tech heating savings cooling savings
  13. 13. Traditional Biomass • Traditional Biomass is not represented explicitly in ETSAP-TIAM, but should not be counted as a modern renewable energy source • Very little in the literature about this topic • Estimates taken from GCAM 3.2 reference run 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 AnnualConsumption(PJ) MEX CSA ODA IND CHI AFR 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 AnnualConsumption(PJ) MEX CSA ODA IND CHI AFR Reference Alternative: Meeting SE4ALL universal access objective
  14. 14. Carbon Price
  15. 15. Carbon Price Region Industry Power Heat Buildings Transport (excluding Aviation) Agriculture Oil Coal AFR AUS CAN 4.68 6.39 1.00 CHI 0.88 0.88 0.88 CSA EEU 5.51 5.51 5.51 FSU 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.63 0.63 IND JPN 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 MEA MEX 0.62 1.00 ODA SKO 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.93 USA 0.06 0.14 WEU 7.02 11.35 7.02 5.43 Calculated by scaling proportion of emissions from sector/fuel/area within each region. In 2005 USD per tonne CO2.
  16. 16. Energy Efficiency Targets • Considered on a case by case basis. Scaled by country/sector on energy consumption data from Enerdata. • GDP exogenous, so a target on energy intensity can be set in ETSAP-TIAM exogenously Barriers to Energy Efficiency • Calculated from historical improvement rates in energy intensity (averaged over 5 years to remove noise in data). • Back calculated from exogenous GDP input in ETSAP-TIAM
  17. 17. Energy Intensity Region Historic Max Energy Intensity Decrease (%/year) Africa -2.16% Australia/ New Zealand -2.52% Canada -3.05% China -3.95% Central and South America -1.60% Eastern Europe -5.42% Former Soviet Union -5.49% India -3.56% Japan -2.24% Middle East -0.74% Mexico -3.08% Other Developing Asia -1.82% South Korea -2.28% (-2.75%) USA -2.62% Western Europe -2.19% Combined Europe -2.36%
  18. 18. Renewable Energy Share Based on IRENA REMap 2030. Alternative scenario is based on “Realistic Potential”.
  19. 19. RESULTS
  20. 20. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 EJ/year Reference 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 EJ/year Renewable 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 EJ/year Energy Efficiency 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 EJ/year EE & RE 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 EJ/year EE, RE & Energy Access Renewable except hydro and biomass Hydro Biomass Traditional Biomass Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Total Primary Energy Consumption
  21. 21. 5.6 4.9 4.5 4.3 4.2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Reference 5.6 4.9 4.5 4.3 4.1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Renewable 5.6 4.9 4.5 4.1 3.6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Energy Efficiency 5.6 4.9 4.5 4.1 3.6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 EE & RE 5.6 4.9 4.5 4.1 3.6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 EE, RE & Energy Access Title AFR AUS CAN CHI CSA EEU FSU IND JPN MEA MEX ODA SKO USA WEU Global Primary Energy Intensity of GDP (MJ/USD 2005)
  22. 22. Final Energy Consumption Reference 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 EJ/Year Industry Transport Residential Commercial Agriculture Energy Efficiency 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 EJ/Year Industry Transport Residential Commercial Agriculture
  23. 23. Savings in FEC (2015-2030): EE vs. REF By sector By region Agriculture 0% Commercial 5% Industry 48% Residential 14% Transport 33% AFR 1% CHI 22% CSA 9% EEU 1% FSU 7% IND 12% MEA 3% SKO 2% USA 25% WEU 18% Total savings: 16 EJ
  24. 24. CO2 Emissions in 2030 (Gt CO2/year) 31.4 44.4 36.5 42.6 34.8 36.5 RCP 2.6 Reference Energy Efficiency (EE) Renewable Energy (RE) EE&RE EE&RE&EA
  25. 25. Conclusions • Largest amount of energy saving occurs in industry and transportation sector. • The regions were most of energy savings in FEC takes place are: USA, CHI, and WEU • Even achieving the RE and EE targets, additional climate policies will be necessary to achieve a path to a 2-degree target • Even more so when the Energy Access target is considered
  26. 26. Questions? Thank you for attention!

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