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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
 
Particulars (` cr) 2QFY2011 2QFY2010 % chg (yoy) 1QFY2011 % chg (qoq)
Net sales 10,603 9,944 6.6 9,029 17.4
EBITDA 1,695 2,388 (29.0) 1,843 (8.0)
EBITDA margin (%) 16.0 24.0 (803bp) 20.4 (443bp)
Net profit 1,090 1,663 (34.5) 1,177 (7.4)
Source: Company, Angel Research
For 2QFY2011, SAIL’s net revenue came in at `10,603cr, above our estimate of
Rs9,110cr. Net profit at `1,090cr was also above our estimate of `994cr. The
deviation in top-line was mainly due to higher sales volumes of 3mn tonnes as
compared to our estimate of 2.64mn tonnes.
Costs headwind continues: For 2QFY2011, net revenue increased by 6.6% yoy
and 17.4% qoq to `10,603cr. While sales volume grew 2.7% yoy and 26.3% qoq
to 3mn tonnes, realisations increased 3.8% yoy to `34,993/tonne, though down
7.0% qoq. Despite top-line growing, EBITDA declined 29% yoy and 8% qoq to
`1,695cr as EBITDA margins contracted by 803bp yoy and 443bp qoq to 16% on
account of: a) higher coking coal cost during the quarter, and b) an additional
provision of `70.1cr towards employee-related benefits. Net interest income
declined 49.3% yoy and 8.6% qoq to `223cr, whereas depreciation expense
increased 11% yoy and 5.2% qoq to `369cr. Thus, higher costs resulted in net
income decreasing by 34.5% yoy and 7.4% qoq to `1,090cr.
Outlook and Valuation: At the CMP, the stock is trading at 9.0x FY2011E and
7.4x FY2012E EV/EBITDA, respectively. Going ahead, we believe that SAIL will
benefit from the strong domestic demand. Nonetheless, as benefits of capacity
expansion are expected only post FY2012 we maintain our Neutral view on the
stock. Further, news flow related to follow-on public offer in the near future could
direct the stock price movement from current levels.
Key Financials
Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Net sales 43,719 40,551 46,594 52,932
% chg 9.3 (7.2) 14.9 13.6
Net profit 6,175 6,754 5,996 7,079
% chg (18.1) 9.4 (11.2) 18.1
EPS (`) 14.9 16.4 14.5 17.1
EBITDA margin (%) 19.5 24.1 19.7 22.5
P/E (x) 13.0 11.9 13.4 11.4
P/BV (x) 2.9 2.4 2.1 1.8
RoE (%) 24.2 22.0 16.8 17.3
RoCE (%) 22.5 19.1 15.3 18.8
EV/Sales (x) 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.2 7.6 9.0 7.4
Source: Company, Angel Research
NEUTRAL
CMP `195
Target Price -
Investment Period -
Stock Info
Sector
Bloomberg Code SAIL@IN
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters 85.8
MF / Banks / Indian Fls 7.5
FII / NRIs / OCBs 4.4
Indian Public / Others 2.3
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
Sensex 11.3 24.8 0.3
SAIL (4.8) 16.0 (29.5)
10
20,032
6,018
SAIL.BO
80,522
1.4
259/155
881059
Steel
Avg. Daily Volume
Market Cap (Rs cr)
Beta
52 Week High / Low
Face Value (Rs)
BSE Sensex
Nifty
Reuters Code
Paresh Jain
Tel: 022-40403800 Ext: 348
pareshn.jain@angelbroking.com
Pooja Jain
Tel: 022-40403800 Ext: 311
pooja.j@angelbroking.com
Steel Authority of India
Performance Highlights
2QFY2011 Result Update | Steel
October 29, 2010
SAIL | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 29, 2010 2
Exhibit 1: 2QFY2011 performance
(` cr) 2QFY11 2QFY10 yoy (%) 1HFY11 1HFY10 yoy (%)
Net sales 10,603 9,944 6.6 19,632 18,895 3.9
Raw material 5,167 4,276 20.8 8,192 8,396 (2.4)
% of net sales 48.7 43.0 41.7 44.4
Power & fuel 877 877 (0.0) 1,755 1,692 3.7
% of net sales 8.3 8.8 8.9 9.0
Staff cost 1,700 1,128 50.8 3,712 2,199 68.8
% of net sales 16.0 11.3 18.9 11.6
Other expenditure 914 807 13.4 1,907 1,539 23.9
% of net sales 8.6 8.1 9.7 8.1
Total expenditure 9,111 7,651 19.1 16,402 14,928 9.9
Operating profit 1,491 2,293 (35.0) 3,230 3,967 (18.6)
OPM% 14.1 23.1 16.5 21.0
Other operating income 203 95 113.7 307 297 3.4
EBITDA 1,695 2,388 (29.0) 3,538 4,264 (17.0)
% of net sales 16.0 24.0 18.0 22.6
Interest income/(expenses) 223 441 (49.3) 468 891 (47.5)
Depreciation 369 332 11.0 719 659 9.1
Other income 43 22 93.5 55 29 91.1
Exceptional items - - - -
Profit before tax 1,592 2,519 (36.8) 3,341 4,525 (26.2)
% of net sales 15.0 25.3 17.0 23.9
Current tax 502 855 (41.3) 1,075 1,535 (30.0)
% Tax rate 31.5 34.0 32.2 33.9
Profit after tax 1,090 1,663 (34.5) 2,267 2,990 (24.2)
% of net sales 10.3 16.7 11.5 15.8
EPS (`) 2.6 4.0 (34.5) 5.5 7.2 (24.2)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2QFY2011 - Actual v/s Angel estimates
(` cr) Actual Estimate Variation (%)
Net Sales 10,603 9,110 16.4
EBITDA 1,695 1,605 5.6
EBITDA margins (%) 16.0 17.6 (164bp)
PBT 1,592 1,483 7.4
PAT 1,090 994 9.7
Source: Company, Angel Research
SAIL | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 29, 2010 3
Conference call - Key takeaways
In August 2010, there was a breakdown of the blast furnace unit at Bokaro,
which led to lower production. However, going ahead, the company expects
the production to increase.
The finished steel inventory level stood at 1.23mn tonnes as compared to
1.36mn tonnes in 1QFY2011, of which 100kt were defectives which the
company may dispose off as scrap. The balance inventory is expected to be
sold in the coming quarters.
During the quarter, the royalty rate on iron ore on ad valorem basis increased
to `200/tonne as against `160/tonne in 1QFY2011. As a result, the negative
impact of royalty on iron ore was `25cr during the quarter.
The company consumed 0.7mn tonnes of rolled–over, high-cost
(US $300/tonne) coking coal inventory in 2QFY2011 as compared to around
1mn tonne in 1QFY2011. Management indicated that 0.5mn tonne each of
the high-cost coking coal inventory will be consumed in 3QFY2011 and
4QFY2011. In FY2012, it expects to consume 1.7mn tonnes of the high cost
coking coal.
Management mentioned that it is yet to settle the domestic coal prices with
Coal India. However, they have accounted for a 5% provisional increase in the
coal prices. The company expects the settlement to take place in 3QFY2011.
Commissioning of the ISP project has been delayed by three months and is
expected to come on stream in 3QFY2012.
During the quarter, SAIL incurred capex of `2,500cr. For FY2011,
management has planned capex of `12,254cr.
SAIL | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 29, 2010 4
Result Highlights
Net revenue above estimates led by higher sales volume
While saleable steel production was flat at 3.1mn tonnes, saleable sales volume
increased by 2.7% yoy and 26.3% qoq to 3.0mn tonnes. Realisation increased by
3.8% yoy to `34,993/tonne, but fell 7.0% qoq. Thus, driven by higher volumes, net
revenue grew 6.6% yoy and 17.4% qoq to `10,603cr.
Exhibit 3: Sales volume stood at 3mn tonnes
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 4: Net revenue up 6.6% yoy
Source: Company, Angel Research
EBITDA margin contracts due to higher cost
Despite top-line growing, EBITDA declined 29% yoy and 8% qoq to `1,695cr as
EBITDA margins contracted by 803bp yoy and 443bp qoq to 16% on account of:
a) higher coking coal cost during the quarter, and b) an additional provision of
`70.1cr towards employee-related benefits.
During the quarter, raw material cost per tonne increased by 18.2% yoy and
40.1% qoq to `16,542 during the quarter mainly on account of higher coking coal
cost. Further, staff cost per tonne of saleable steel increased 46.8% yoy to `5,612.
Hence, staff cost increased by 50.8% yoy to `1,700cr during the quarter.
Exhibit 5: Quarterly performance
(`/tonne of saleable steel) 2QFY11 2QFY10 yoy (%) 1QFY11 qoq (%)
Revenue 34,993 33,708 3.8 37,622 (7.0)
Cost 30,071 25,935 15.9 30,377 (1.0)
Raw-material cost 16,542 14,000 18.2 11,809 40.1
Consumption of stores 2,005 2,405 (16.6) 2,389 (16.1)
Power and fuel 2,893 2,973 (2.7) 3,660 (20.9)
Staff cost 5,612 3,823 46.8 8,382 (33.1)
Other expenditure 3,018 2,735 10.4 4,137 (27.0)
EBITDA 5,593 8,096 (30.9) 7,679 (27.2)
EBITDA (US $/tonne) 120 167 (28.2) 168 (28.7)
Source: Company, Angel Research
2.8 3.0 2.9
3.4
2.4
3.0
28,000
30,000
32,000
34,000
36,000
38,000
40,000
0
1
2
3
4
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11
(`/tonne)
(mntonnes)
Sales volume (LHS) Average realisation (RHS)
8,951
9,944 9,697
11,955
9,029
10,603
(30)
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11
(%)
(`cr)
Net revenue (LHS) yoy chg (RHS)
SAIL | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 29, 2010 5
Exhibit 6: Volatility in staff cost continues
Source: Company, Angel Research
Net interest income declined 49.3% yoy and 8.6% qoq to `223cr whereas
depreciation expense increased 11% yoy and 5.2% qoq to `369cr. Thus, higher
cost resulted in net income decreasing by 34.5% yoy and 7.4% qoq to `1,090cr.
Exhibit 7: EBITDA margin down due to higher cost
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 8: Net profit declined 34.5% yoy
Source: Company, Angel Research
1,071 1,128
1,571 1,638
2,012
1,700
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11
(%)
(`cr)
Staff cost (LHS) as % of net revenue (RHS)
1,876
2,388
2,578
3,097
1,843
1,695
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11
(%)
(`cr)
EBITDA (LHS) EBITDA margin (RHS)
1,326
1,663 1,676
2,085
1,177 1,090
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11
(%)
(`cr)
Net profit (LHS) Net profit margin (RHS)
SAIL | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 29, 2010 6
Investment Rationale
Volume growth unexciting in the near term
Owing to SAIL’s ongoing capacity expansion plan, steel capacity is expected to
double by FY2013–14. The expansion plan along with development of the raw
material mines will cost the company `70,000cr. SAIL’s order placements for its
expansion plan are nearing completion. The company has already placed orders
worth `48,000cr.
Exhibit 9: Capacity to double by FY2013–14
Source: Company, Angel Research
While the ISP plant is expected to be commissioned in 3QFY2012, most of the
company’s additional capacity is expected to come on stream post FY2012. Thus,
we expect muted sales volume CAGR of 6.7% over FY2010–12.
Exhibit 10: Sales volume CAGR at 6.7% over FY2010–12E
Source: Company, Angel Research
14.5 13.5 12.6
11.7
11.1
10.5
0
10
20
30
Hot Metal Crude steel Saleable Steel
(mntonne)
Existing Expansion
(12)
(8)
(4)
0
4
8
12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E
(%)
(mntonne)
Sales volume (LHS) yoy change (RHS)
SAIL | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 29, 2010 7
Product mix to improve
Post expansion and modernisation of the steel plants, SAIL will benefit from the
improvement in product mix. Management plans to reduce sale of semis to nil post
expansion of its steel capacity. Semis constituted 19.7% of the company’s product
mix in FY2010. Moreover, contribution of structurals is expected to improve to 15%
from the current 4.5%.
Exhibit 11: Product mix (%, FY2010)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 12: Product mix post expansion (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Outlook and Valuation
At the CMP, the stock is trading at 9.0x FY2011E and 7.4x FY2012E EV/EBITDA,
respectively. Going ahead, we believe SAIL will benefit from strong domestic
demand. However, as the benefits of capacity expansion are expected only post
FY2012 we maintain our Neutral view on the stock. Further, news flow related to
follow-on public offer in the near term could direct the stock price movement from
current levels.
We have revised our estimates for FY2011 and FY2012 to factor in higher costs
and other book-keeping changes.
Exhibit 13: Key assumptions
FY2011E FY2012E
Saleable steel volume (mn tonnes) 12.6 13.9
Average realisation (`/tonne) 36,979 38,191
Average coal costs (`/tonne) 9,849 9,918
Source: Angel research
24.1
8.7
20.5
19.7
10.2
8
4.5 2.8 0.5
HRC/sheets
CRC/sheets
Plates
Semis
Rounds/bars
Railway material
Structurals
Coated products
Pipes
22.1
10.4
16.423.3
7.4
15
4.8
0.6
HRC/sheets
CRC/sheets
Plates
Semis
Rounds/bars
Railway material
Structurals
Coated products
Pipes
SAIL | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 29, 2010 8
Exhibit 14: Change in estimates
(` cr) Earlier Estimates Revised Estimates Upgrade/(Downgrade) (%)
FY11 FY12 FY11 FY12 FY11 FY12
Net sales 47,385 52,932 46,594 52,932 (1.7) 0.0
EBITDA 9,761 11,904 9,180 11,904 (6.0) 0.0
EBITDA margin (%) 20.6 22.5 19.7 22.5 (90bp) 0bp
PBT 9,484 10,832 8,949 10,565 (5.6) (2.5)
Net income 6,259 7,106 5,996 7,079 (4.2) (0.4)
Net margin (%) 13.2 13.4 12.9 13.4 (34bp) (5bp)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 15: EPS - Angel forecast v/s Consensus
Year (%) Angel forecast Bloomberg consensus Variation (%)
FY11E 14.5 16.9 (14.3)
FY12E 17.1 19.4 (11.7)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 16: EV/EBITDA
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 17: P/E band
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
Apr-02 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10
(`cr)
2x
5x
8x
11x
14x
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Apr-02 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10
(`)
20x
15x
10x
5x
SAIL | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 29, 2010 9
Exhibit 18: P/BV band
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 19: Recommendation summary
Company CMP
Target
Price
Reco. Mcap Upside P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%)
(`) (`) (` cr) (%) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E
SAIL 195 - Neutral 80,522 - 13.4 11.4 2.1 1.8 9.0 7.4 16.8 17.3 15.3 18.8
Tata Steel 590 702 Buy 52,315 19.0 8.1 7.3 1.6 1.3 6.2 5.5 21.2 19.7 13.2 14.1
JSW Steel 1,338 - Neutral 34,183 - 24.0 13.8 1.8 1.6 9.2 6.4 10.4 12.5 10.3 12.6
Sesa Goa 322 - Neutral 28,614 - 7.0 7.9 2.1 1.7 3.8 3.2 38.4 24.3 38.7 30.9
NMDC 277 - Neutral 109,882 - 16.5 13.0 5.6 4.2 10.4 7.6 39.3 37.1 52.2 49.2
Hindalco 211 - Neutral 40,282 - 11.1 10.4 1.6 1.4 7.1 6.7 15.1 14.2 10.3 10.0
Nalco 402 316 Sell 25,888 (21.4) 25.4 21.5 2.4 2.2 14.6 11.4 9.7 10.7 10.7 12.5
Sterlite 169 196 Buy 56,683 16.2 12.6 8.8 1.3 1.2 7.1 4.5 10.9 13.9 9.7 13.6
Hindustan
Zinc
1,232 1,342 Accumulate 52,056 8.9 12.7 10.0 2.4 1.9 7.7 5.2 20.5 21.4 20.9 22.1
Source: Company, Angel Research
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Apr-02 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10
(`)
4x
3x
2x
1x
SAIL | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 29, 2010 10
Profit & loss statement
Y/E March (` cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Gross sales 39,599 46,046 49,250 43,935 50,250 57,086
Less: Excise duty 5,266 6,047 5,531 3,383 3,656 4,153
Net sales 34,333 39,999 43,719 40,551 46,594 52,932
Other operating income - - - 576 500 500
Total operating income 34,333 39,999 43,719 41,127 47,094 53,432
% chg 21.5 16.5 9.3 (5.9) 14.5 13.5
Total expenditure 24,899 28,875 35,185 31,362 37,914 41,528
Net raw materials 13,030 13,624 18,149 18,504 21,034 22,842
Other mfg costs 5,555 6,119 6,656 6,533 5,472 6,233
Personnel 5,087 7,919 8,402 5,417 8,100 8,748
Other 1,227 1,212 1,978 908 3,308 3,705
EBITDA 9,434 11,124 8,534 9,765 9,180 11,904
% chg 48.9 17.9 (23.3) 14.4 (6.0) 29.7
(% of net sales) 27.5 27.8 19.5 24.1 19.7 22.5
Depreciation 1,211 1,235 1,285 1,337 1,421 1,644
EBIT 8,222 9,889 7,249 8,428 7,759 10,260
% chg 60.4 20.3 (26.7) 16.3 (7.9) 32.2
(% of net sales) 23.9 24.7 16.6 20.8 16.7 19.4
Interest charges 332 251 253 402 446 510
Other income 1,532 1,831 2,408 2,106 1,636 816
(% of PBT) 16.3 16.0 25.6 20.8 18.3 7.7
Share in profit of asso. - - - - - -
Recurring PBT 9,423 11,469 9,403 10,132 8,949 10,565
% chg 65.1 21.7 (18.0) 7.7 (11.7) 18.1
Extra. Inc/(Expense) - - - - - -
PBT (reported) 9,423 11,469 9,403 10,132 8,949 10,565
Tax 3,220 3,932 3,229 3,378 2,953 3,486
(% of PBT) 34.2 34.3 34.3 33.3 33.0 33.0
PAT (reported) 6,202 7,537 6,175 6,754 5,996 7,079
Add: Earnings of asso. - - - - - -
Less: Minority interest - - - - - -
Extra. Expense/(Inc.) - - - - - -
Net income (reported) 6,202 7,537 6,175 6,754 5,996 7,079
Adj. net income 6,202 7,537 6,175 6,754 5,996 7,079
% chg 54.6 21.5 (18.1) 9.4 (11.2) 18.1
(% of net sales) 18.1 18.8 14.1 16.7 12.9 13.4
Basic EPS (`) 15.0 18.2 14.9 16.4 14.5 17.1
Fully diluted EPS (`) 15.0 18.2 14.9 16.4 14.5 17.1
% chg 54.6 21.5 (18.1) 9.4 (11.2) 18.1
SAIL | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 29, 2010 11
Balance sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity share capital 4,130 4,130 4,130 4,130 4,130 4,130
Reserves & surplus 13,183 18,933 23,854 29,186 33,927 39,750
Shareholders’ funds 17,313 23,064 27,984 33,317 38,057 43,881
Share warrants - - - - - -
Minority interest - - - - - -
Total loans 4,181 3,045 7,539 16,511 10,413 13,129
Deferred tax liability 1,413 1,569 1,332 1,415 1,710 2,059
Total liabilities 22,906 27,677 36,855 51,243 50,180 59,069
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross block 29,913 30,923 32,729 35,396 38,971 48,846
Less: Acc.
depreciation
18,315 19,351 20,460 21,781 23,202 24,846
Net Block 11,598 11,571 12,269 13,615 15,769 24,000
Capital work-in-
progress
1,236 2,390 6,544 15,026 23,826 25,826
Goodwill - - - - - -
Investments 514 538 653 669 669 669
Current assets 20,379 26,318 34,511 39,081 28,372 27,649
Cash 9,610 13,759 18,229 22,439 8,772 5,738
Loans & advances 1,650 2,380 2,122 3,343 3,343 3,343
Other 9,119 10,178 14,160 13,299 16,257 18,568
Current liabilities 10,949 13,199 17,122 17,149 18,456 19,075
Net current assets 9,430 13,119 17,389 21,933 9,916 8,574
Mis. exp. not written
off
129 59 - - - -
Total assets 22,906 27,677 36,855 51,243 50,180 59,069
SAIL | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 29, 2010 12
Cash flow statement
Y/E March (` cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Profit before tax 9,423 11,469 9,403 10,132 8,949 10,565
Depreciation 1,237 1,234 1,287 1,334 1,421 1,644
Change in working
capital
(976) (743) (2,418) 1,492 (1,650) (1,692)
Less: Other income (623) 201 990 (4,499) - -
Direct taxes paid 3,427 3,783 3,139 3,659 2,658 3,138
Cash flow from
operations
5,633 8,378 6,124 4,800 6,061 7,379
(Inc.)/ Dec. in fixed
assets
(1,091) (2,199) (5,403) (10,125) (12,375) (11,875)
(Inc.)/ Dec. in
investments
(200) (20) (105) (10) - -
(Inc.)/ Dec. in loans
and advances
- - - - - -
Other income (703) (1,079) (1,101) (2,114) - -
Cash flow from
investing
(588) (1,140) (4,406) (8,021) (12,375) (11,875)
Issue of equity 2 1 1 5 - -
Inc./(Dec.) in loans 5 (1,112) 4,520 8,887 (6,099) 2,717
Dividend paid 1,107 1,643 1,496 1,400 1,255 1,255
Others 509 334 273 96.5 - -
Cash flow from
financing
(1,608) (3,089) 2,751 7,395 (7,354) 1,462
Inc./(Dec.) in cash 3,437 4,150 4,469 4,174 (13,667) (3,034)
Opening cash bal. 6,173 9,610 13,759 18,265 22,439 8,772
Closing cash bal. 9,610 13,759 18,229 22,439 8,772 5,738
SAIL | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 29, 2010 13
Key ratios
Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Valuation ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS) 13.0 10.7 13.0 11.9 13.4 11.4
P/CEPS 10.9 9.2 11.0 10.1 10.9 9.2
P/BV 4.7 3.5 2.9 2.4 2.1 1.8
Dividend yield (%) 1.6 1.9 - 1.7 1.3 1.3
EV/Sales 2.2 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.7
EV/EBITDA 8.0 6.3 8.2 7.6 9.0 7.4
EV/Total assets 3.3 2.5 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.5
Per share data (`)
EPS (Basic) 15.0 18.2 14.9 16.4 14.5 17.1
EPS (fully diluted) 15.0 18.2 14.9 16.4 14.5 17.1
Cash EPS 17.8 21.1 17.8 19.4 18.0 21.1
DPS 3.1 3.7 - 3.3 2.6 2.6
Book value 41.9 55.8 67.8 80.7 92.1 106.2
DuPont analysis
EBIT margin 23.9 24.7 16.6 20.8 16.7 19.4
Tax retention ratio (%) 65.8 65.7 65.7 66.7 67.0 67.0
Asset turnover (x) 2.7 2.9 2.7 1.7 1.3 1.1
RoIC (Post-tax) 42.4 47.8 29.3 24.0 15.0 14.6
Cost of debt (post tax) - - - - 2.2 2.9
Leverage (x) - - - - 0.0 0.2
Operating RoE 42.4 47.8 29.3 24.0 15.5 16.6
Returns (%)
RoCE (Pre-tax) 39.8 39.1 22.5 19.1 15.3 18.8
Angel RoIC (pre-tax) 69.9 83.8 61.4 65.2 49.5 45.5
RoE 41.5 37.3 24.2 22.0 16.8 17.3
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset turnover (gross
block)
1.2 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.2
Inventory (days) 186 184 204 178 180 180
Receivables (days) 28 25 31 40 45 40
Payables (days) 80 84 123 125 125 125
WC cycle (days) 64 61 66 69 57 63
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity (0.3) (0.5) (0.4) (0.2) 0.0 0.2
Net debt to EBITDA (0.6) (1.0) (1.3) (0.6) 0.2 0.6
Interest coverage 24.8 39.4 28.6 21.0 17.4 20.1
SAIL | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 29, 2010 14
Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies
referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and
risks of such an investment.
Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make
investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this
document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.
Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
fundamentals.
The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable
sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this
document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way
responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report.
Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify,
nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While
Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory,
compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.
This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced,
redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.
Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or
other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in
the past.
Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in
connection with the use of this information.
Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please
refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and
its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement SAIL
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock Yes
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)
Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

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Sail ru2 qfy2011-291010

  • 1. Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1   Particulars (` cr) 2QFY2011 2QFY2010 % chg (yoy) 1QFY2011 % chg (qoq) Net sales 10,603 9,944 6.6 9,029 17.4 EBITDA 1,695 2,388 (29.0) 1,843 (8.0) EBITDA margin (%) 16.0 24.0 (803bp) 20.4 (443bp) Net profit 1,090 1,663 (34.5) 1,177 (7.4) Source: Company, Angel Research For 2QFY2011, SAIL’s net revenue came in at `10,603cr, above our estimate of Rs9,110cr. Net profit at `1,090cr was also above our estimate of `994cr. The deviation in top-line was mainly due to higher sales volumes of 3mn tonnes as compared to our estimate of 2.64mn tonnes. Costs headwind continues: For 2QFY2011, net revenue increased by 6.6% yoy and 17.4% qoq to `10,603cr. While sales volume grew 2.7% yoy and 26.3% qoq to 3mn tonnes, realisations increased 3.8% yoy to `34,993/tonne, though down 7.0% qoq. Despite top-line growing, EBITDA declined 29% yoy and 8% qoq to `1,695cr as EBITDA margins contracted by 803bp yoy and 443bp qoq to 16% on account of: a) higher coking coal cost during the quarter, and b) an additional provision of `70.1cr towards employee-related benefits. Net interest income declined 49.3% yoy and 8.6% qoq to `223cr, whereas depreciation expense increased 11% yoy and 5.2% qoq to `369cr. Thus, higher costs resulted in net income decreasing by 34.5% yoy and 7.4% qoq to `1,090cr. Outlook and Valuation: At the CMP, the stock is trading at 9.0x FY2011E and 7.4x FY2012E EV/EBITDA, respectively. Going ahead, we believe that SAIL will benefit from the strong domestic demand. Nonetheless, as benefits of capacity expansion are expected only post FY2012 we maintain our Neutral view on the stock. Further, news flow related to follow-on public offer in the near future could direct the stock price movement from current levels. Key Financials Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Net sales 43,719 40,551 46,594 52,932 % chg 9.3 (7.2) 14.9 13.6 Net profit 6,175 6,754 5,996 7,079 % chg (18.1) 9.4 (11.2) 18.1 EPS (`) 14.9 16.4 14.5 17.1 EBITDA margin (%) 19.5 24.1 19.7 22.5 P/E (x) 13.0 11.9 13.4 11.4 P/BV (x) 2.9 2.4 2.1 1.8 RoE (%) 24.2 22.0 16.8 17.3 RoCE (%) 22.5 19.1 15.3 18.8 EV/Sales (x) 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 8.2 7.6 9.0 7.4 Source: Company, Angel Research NEUTRAL CMP `195 Target Price - Investment Period - Stock Info Sector Bloomberg Code SAIL@IN Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters 85.8 MF / Banks / Indian Fls 7.5 FII / NRIs / OCBs 4.4 Indian Public / Others 2.3 Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr Sensex 11.3 24.8 0.3 SAIL (4.8) 16.0 (29.5) 10 20,032 6,018 SAIL.BO 80,522 1.4 259/155 881059 Steel Avg. Daily Volume Market Cap (Rs cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Face Value (Rs) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Paresh Jain Tel: 022-40403800 Ext: 348 pareshn.jain@angelbroking.com Pooja Jain Tel: 022-40403800 Ext: 311 pooja.j@angelbroking.com Steel Authority of India Performance Highlights 2QFY2011 Result Update | Steel October 29, 2010
  • 2. SAIL | 2QFY2011 Result Update October 29, 2010 2 Exhibit 1: 2QFY2011 performance (` cr) 2QFY11 2QFY10 yoy (%) 1HFY11 1HFY10 yoy (%) Net sales 10,603 9,944 6.6 19,632 18,895 3.9 Raw material 5,167 4,276 20.8 8,192 8,396 (2.4) % of net sales 48.7 43.0 41.7 44.4 Power & fuel 877 877 (0.0) 1,755 1,692 3.7 % of net sales 8.3 8.8 8.9 9.0 Staff cost 1,700 1,128 50.8 3,712 2,199 68.8 % of net sales 16.0 11.3 18.9 11.6 Other expenditure 914 807 13.4 1,907 1,539 23.9 % of net sales 8.6 8.1 9.7 8.1 Total expenditure 9,111 7,651 19.1 16,402 14,928 9.9 Operating profit 1,491 2,293 (35.0) 3,230 3,967 (18.6) OPM% 14.1 23.1 16.5 21.0 Other operating income 203 95 113.7 307 297 3.4 EBITDA 1,695 2,388 (29.0) 3,538 4,264 (17.0) % of net sales 16.0 24.0 18.0 22.6 Interest income/(expenses) 223 441 (49.3) 468 891 (47.5) Depreciation 369 332 11.0 719 659 9.1 Other income 43 22 93.5 55 29 91.1 Exceptional items - - - - Profit before tax 1,592 2,519 (36.8) 3,341 4,525 (26.2) % of net sales 15.0 25.3 17.0 23.9 Current tax 502 855 (41.3) 1,075 1,535 (30.0) % Tax rate 31.5 34.0 32.2 33.9 Profit after tax 1,090 1,663 (34.5) 2,267 2,990 (24.2) % of net sales 10.3 16.7 11.5 15.8 EPS (`) 2.6 4.0 (34.5) 5.5 7.2 (24.2) Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 2: 2QFY2011 - Actual v/s Angel estimates (` cr) Actual Estimate Variation (%) Net Sales 10,603 9,110 16.4 EBITDA 1,695 1,605 5.6 EBITDA margins (%) 16.0 17.6 (164bp) PBT 1,592 1,483 7.4 PAT 1,090 994 9.7 Source: Company, Angel Research
  • 3. SAIL | 2QFY2011 Result Update October 29, 2010 3 Conference call - Key takeaways In August 2010, there was a breakdown of the blast furnace unit at Bokaro, which led to lower production. However, going ahead, the company expects the production to increase. The finished steel inventory level stood at 1.23mn tonnes as compared to 1.36mn tonnes in 1QFY2011, of which 100kt were defectives which the company may dispose off as scrap. The balance inventory is expected to be sold in the coming quarters. During the quarter, the royalty rate on iron ore on ad valorem basis increased to `200/tonne as against `160/tonne in 1QFY2011. As a result, the negative impact of royalty on iron ore was `25cr during the quarter. The company consumed 0.7mn tonnes of rolled–over, high-cost (US $300/tonne) coking coal inventory in 2QFY2011 as compared to around 1mn tonne in 1QFY2011. Management indicated that 0.5mn tonne each of the high-cost coking coal inventory will be consumed in 3QFY2011 and 4QFY2011. In FY2012, it expects to consume 1.7mn tonnes of the high cost coking coal. Management mentioned that it is yet to settle the domestic coal prices with Coal India. However, they have accounted for a 5% provisional increase in the coal prices. The company expects the settlement to take place in 3QFY2011. Commissioning of the ISP project has been delayed by three months and is expected to come on stream in 3QFY2012. During the quarter, SAIL incurred capex of `2,500cr. For FY2011, management has planned capex of `12,254cr.
  • 4. SAIL | 2QFY2011 Result Update October 29, 2010 4 Result Highlights Net revenue above estimates led by higher sales volume While saleable steel production was flat at 3.1mn tonnes, saleable sales volume increased by 2.7% yoy and 26.3% qoq to 3.0mn tonnes. Realisation increased by 3.8% yoy to `34,993/tonne, but fell 7.0% qoq. Thus, driven by higher volumes, net revenue grew 6.6% yoy and 17.4% qoq to `10,603cr. Exhibit 3: Sales volume stood at 3mn tonnes Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 4: Net revenue up 6.6% yoy Source: Company, Angel Research EBITDA margin contracts due to higher cost Despite top-line growing, EBITDA declined 29% yoy and 8% qoq to `1,695cr as EBITDA margins contracted by 803bp yoy and 443bp qoq to 16% on account of: a) higher coking coal cost during the quarter, and b) an additional provision of `70.1cr towards employee-related benefits. During the quarter, raw material cost per tonne increased by 18.2% yoy and 40.1% qoq to `16,542 during the quarter mainly on account of higher coking coal cost. Further, staff cost per tonne of saleable steel increased 46.8% yoy to `5,612. Hence, staff cost increased by 50.8% yoy to `1,700cr during the quarter. Exhibit 5: Quarterly performance (`/tonne of saleable steel) 2QFY11 2QFY10 yoy (%) 1QFY11 qoq (%) Revenue 34,993 33,708 3.8 37,622 (7.0) Cost 30,071 25,935 15.9 30,377 (1.0) Raw-material cost 16,542 14,000 18.2 11,809 40.1 Consumption of stores 2,005 2,405 (16.6) 2,389 (16.1) Power and fuel 2,893 2,973 (2.7) 3,660 (20.9) Staff cost 5,612 3,823 46.8 8,382 (33.1) Other expenditure 3,018 2,735 10.4 4,137 (27.0) EBITDA 5,593 8,096 (30.9) 7,679 (27.2) EBITDA (US $/tonne) 120 167 (28.2) 168 (28.7) Source: Company, Angel Research 2.8 3.0 2.9 3.4 2.4 3.0 28,000 30,000 32,000 34,000 36,000 38,000 40,000 0 1 2 3 4 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 (`/tonne) (mntonnes) Sales volume (LHS) Average realisation (RHS) 8,951 9,944 9,697 11,955 9,029 10,603 (30) (20) (10) 0 10 20 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 (%) (`cr) Net revenue (LHS) yoy chg (RHS)
  • 5. SAIL | 2QFY2011 Result Update October 29, 2010 5 Exhibit 6: Volatility in staff cost continues Source: Company, Angel Research Net interest income declined 49.3% yoy and 8.6% qoq to `223cr whereas depreciation expense increased 11% yoy and 5.2% qoq to `369cr. Thus, higher cost resulted in net income decreasing by 34.5% yoy and 7.4% qoq to `1,090cr. Exhibit 7: EBITDA margin down due to higher cost Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 8: Net profit declined 34.5% yoy Source: Company, Angel Research 1,071 1,128 1,571 1,638 2,012 1,700 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 (%) (`cr) Staff cost (LHS) as % of net revenue (RHS) 1,876 2,388 2,578 3,097 1,843 1,695 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 (%) (`cr) EBITDA (LHS) EBITDA margin (RHS) 1,326 1,663 1,676 2,085 1,177 1,090 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 (%) (`cr) Net profit (LHS) Net profit margin (RHS)
  • 6. SAIL | 2QFY2011 Result Update October 29, 2010 6 Investment Rationale Volume growth unexciting in the near term Owing to SAIL’s ongoing capacity expansion plan, steel capacity is expected to double by FY2013–14. The expansion plan along with development of the raw material mines will cost the company `70,000cr. SAIL’s order placements for its expansion plan are nearing completion. The company has already placed orders worth `48,000cr. Exhibit 9: Capacity to double by FY2013–14 Source: Company, Angel Research While the ISP plant is expected to be commissioned in 3QFY2012, most of the company’s additional capacity is expected to come on stream post FY2012. Thus, we expect muted sales volume CAGR of 6.7% over FY2010–12. Exhibit 10: Sales volume CAGR at 6.7% over FY2010–12E Source: Company, Angel Research 14.5 13.5 12.6 11.7 11.1 10.5 0 10 20 30 Hot Metal Crude steel Saleable Steel (mntonne) Existing Expansion (12) (8) (4) 0 4 8 12 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E (%) (mntonne) Sales volume (LHS) yoy change (RHS)
  • 7. SAIL | 2QFY2011 Result Update October 29, 2010 7 Product mix to improve Post expansion and modernisation of the steel plants, SAIL will benefit from the improvement in product mix. Management plans to reduce sale of semis to nil post expansion of its steel capacity. Semis constituted 19.7% of the company’s product mix in FY2010. Moreover, contribution of structurals is expected to improve to 15% from the current 4.5%. Exhibit 11: Product mix (%, FY2010) Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 12: Product mix post expansion (%) Source: Company, Angel Research Outlook and Valuation At the CMP, the stock is trading at 9.0x FY2011E and 7.4x FY2012E EV/EBITDA, respectively. Going ahead, we believe SAIL will benefit from strong domestic demand. However, as the benefits of capacity expansion are expected only post FY2012 we maintain our Neutral view on the stock. Further, news flow related to follow-on public offer in the near term could direct the stock price movement from current levels. We have revised our estimates for FY2011 and FY2012 to factor in higher costs and other book-keeping changes. Exhibit 13: Key assumptions FY2011E FY2012E Saleable steel volume (mn tonnes) 12.6 13.9 Average realisation (`/tonne) 36,979 38,191 Average coal costs (`/tonne) 9,849 9,918 Source: Angel research 24.1 8.7 20.5 19.7 10.2 8 4.5 2.8 0.5 HRC/sheets CRC/sheets Plates Semis Rounds/bars Railway material Structurals Coated products Pipes 22.1 10.4 16.423.3 7.4 15 4.8 0.6 HRC/sheets CRC/sheets Plates Semis Rounds/bars Railway material Structurals Coated products Pipes
  • 8. SAIL | 2QFY2011 Result Update October 29, 2010 8 Exhibit 14: Change in estimates (` cr) Earlier Estimates Revised Estimates Upgrade/(Downgrade) (%) FY11 FY12 FY11 FY12 FY11 FY12 Net sales 47,385 52,932 46,594 52,932 (1.7) 0.0 EBITDA 9,761 11,904 9,180 11,904 (6.0) 0.0 EBITDA margin (%) 20.6 22.5 19.7 22.5 (90bp) 0bp PBT 9,484 10,832 8,949 10,565 (5.6) (2.5) Net income 6,259 7,106 5,996 7,079 (4.2) (0.4) Net margin (%) 13.2 13.4 12.9 13.4 (34bp) (5bp) Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 15: EPS - Angel forecast v/s Consensus Year (%) Angel forecast Bloomberg consensus Variation (%) FY11E 14.5 16.9 (14.3) FY12E 17.1 19.4 (11.7) Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research Exhibit 16: EV/EBITDA Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research Exhibit 17: P/E band Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 Apr-02 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 (`cr) 2x 5x 8x 11x 14x 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Apr-02 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 (`) 20x 15x 10x 5x
  • 9. SAIL | 2QFY2011 Result Update October 29, 2010 9 Exhibit 18: P/BV band Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research Exhibit 19: Recommendation summary Company CMP Target Price Reco. Mcap Upside P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) (`) (`) (` cr) (%) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E SAIL 195 - Neutral 80,522 - 13.4 11.4 2.1 1.8 9.0 7.4 16.8 17.3 15.3 18.8 Tata Steel 590 702 Buy 52,315 19.0 8.1 7.3 1.6 1.3 6.2 5.5 21.2 19.7 13.2 14.1 JSW Steel 1,338 - Neutral 34,183 - 24.0 13.8 1.8 1.6 9.2 6.4 10.4 12.5 10.3 12.6 Sesa Goa 322 - Neutral 28,614 - 7.0 7.9 2.1 1.7 3.8 3.2 38.4 24.3 38.7 30.9 NMDC 277 - Neutral 109,882 - 16.5 13.0 5.6 4.2 10.4 7.6 39.3 37.1 52.2 49.2 Hindalco 211 - Neutral 40,282 - 11.1 10.4 1.6 1.4 7.1 6.7 15.1 14.2 10.3 10.0 Nalco 402 316 Sell 25,888 (21.4) 25.4 21.5 2.4 2.2 14.6 11.4 9.7 10.7 10.7 12.5 Sterlite 169 196 Buy 56,683 16.2 12.6 8.8 1.3 1.2 7.1 4.5 10.9 13.9 9.7 13.6 Hindustan Zinc 1,232 1,342 Accumulate 52,056 8.9 12.7 10.0 2.4 1.9 7.7 5.2 20.5 21.4 20.9 22.1 Source: Company, Angel Research 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Apr-02 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 (`) 4x 3x 2x 1x
  • 10. SAIL | 2QFY2011 Result Update October 29, 2010 10 Profit & loss statement Y/E March (` cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Gross sales 39,599 46,046 49,250 43,935 50,250 57,086 Less: Excise duty 5,266 6,047 5,531 3,383 3,656 4,153 Net sales 34,333 39,999 43,719 40,551 46,594 52,932 Other operating income - - - 576 500 500 Total operating income 34,333 39,999 43,719 41,127 47,094 53,432 % chg 21.5 16.5 9.3 (5.9) 14.5 13.5 Total expenditure 24,899 28,875 35,185 31,362 37,914 41,528 Net raw materials 13,030 13,624 18,149 18,504 21,034 22,842 Other mfg costs 5,555 6,119 6,656 6,533 5,472 6,233 Personnel 5,087 7,919 8,402 5,417 8,100 8,748 Other 1,227 1,212 1,978 908 3,308 3,705 EBITDA 9,434 11,124 8,534 9,765 9,180 11,904 % chg 48.9 17.9 (23.3) 14.4 (6.0) 29.7 (% of net sales) 27.5 27.8 19.5 24.1 19.7 22.5 Depreciation 1,211 1,235 1,285 1,337 1,421 1,644 EBIT 8,222 9,889 7,249 8,428 7,759 10,260 % chg 60.4 20.3 (26.7) 16.3 (7.9) 32.2 (% of net sales) 23.9 24.7 16.6 20.8 16.7 19.4 Interest charges 332 251 253 402 446 510 Other income 1,532 1,831 2,408 2,106 1,636 816 (% of PBT) 16.3 16.0 25.6 20.8 18.3 7.7 Share in profit of asso. - - - - - - Recurring PBT 9,423 11,469 9,403 10,132 8,949 10,565 % chg 65.1 21.7 (18.0) 7.7 (11.7) 18.1 Extra. Inc/(Expense) - - - - - - PBT (reported) 9,423 11,469 9,403 10,132 8,949 10,565 Tax 3,220 3,932 3,229 3,378 2,953 3,486 (% of PBT) 34.2 34.3 34.3 33.3 33.0 33.0 PAT (reported) 6,202 7,537 6,175 6,754 5,996 7,079 Add: Earnings of asso. - - - - - - Less: Minority interest - - - - - - Extra. Expense/(Inc.) - - - - - - Net income (reported) 6,202 7,537 6,175 6,754 5,996 7,079 Adj. net income 6,202 7,537 6,175 6,754 5,996 7,079 % chg 54.6 21.5 (18.1) 9.4 (11.2) 18.1 (% of net sales) 18.1 18.8 14.1 16.7 12.9 13.4 Basic EPS (`) 15.0 18.2 14.9 16.4 14.5 17.1 Fully diluted EPS (`) 15.0 18.2 14.9 16.4 14.5 17.1 % chg 54.6 21.5 (18.1) 9.4 (11.2) 18.1
  • 11. SAIL | 2QFY2011 Result Update October 29, 2010 11 Balance sheet (Consolidated) Y/E March (` cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity share capital 4,130 4,130 4,130 4,130 4,130 4,130 Reserves & surplus 13,183 18,933 23,854 29,186 33,927 39,750 Shareholders’ funds 17,313 23,064 27,984 33,317 38,057 43,881 Share warrants - - - - - - Minority interest - - - - - - Total loans 4,181 3,045 7,539 16,511 10,413 13,129 Deferred tax liability 1,413 1,569 1,332 1,415 1,710 2,059 Total liabilities 22,906 27,677 36,855 51,243 50,180 59,069 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross block 29,913 30,923 32,729 35,396 38,971 48,846 Less: Acc. depreciation 18,315 19,351 20,460 21,781 23,202 24,846 Net Block 11,598 11,571 12,269 13,615 15,769 24,000 Capital work-in- progress 1,236 2,390 6,544 15,026 23,826 25,826 Goodwill - - - - - - Investments 514 538 653 669 669 669 Current assets 20,379 26,318 34,511 39,081 28,372 27,649 Cash 9,610 13,759 18,229 22,439 8,772 5,738 Loans & advances 1,650 2,380 2,122 3,343 3,343 3,343 Other 9,119 10,178 14,160 13,299 16,257 18,568 Current liabilities 10,949 13,199 17,122 17,149 18,456 19,075 Net current assets 9,430 13,119 17,389 21,933 9,916 8,574 Mis. exp. not written off 129 59 - - - - Total assets 22,906 27,677 36,855 51,243 50,180 59,069
  • 12. SAIL | 2QFY2011 Result Update October 29, 2010 12 Cash flow statement Y/E March (` cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Profit before tax 9,423 11,469 9,403 10,132 8,949 10,565 Depreciation 1,237 1,234 1,287 1,334 1,421 1,644 Change in working capital (976) (743) (2,418) 1,492 (1,650) (1,692) Less: Other income (623) 201 990 (4,499) - - Direct taxes paid 3,427 3,783 3,139 3,659 2,658 3,138 Cash flow from operations 5,633 8,378 6,124 4,800 6,061 7,379 (Inc.)/ Dec. in fixed assets (1,091) (2,199) (5,403) (10,125) (12,375) (11,875) (Inc.)/ Dec. in investments (200) (20) (105) (10) - - (Inc.)/ Dec. in loans and advances - - - - - - Other income (703) (1,079) (1,101) (2,114) - - Cash flow from investing (588) (1,140) (4,406) (8,021) (12,375) (11,875) Issue of equity 2 1 1 5 - - Inc./(Dec.) in loans 5 (1,112) 4,520 8,887 (6,099) 2,717 Dividend paid 1,107 1,643 1,496 1,400 1,255 1,255 Others 509 334 273 96.5 - - Cash flow from financing (1,608) (3,089) 2,751 7,395 (7,354) 1,462 Inc./(Dec.) in cash 3,437 4,150 4,469 4,174 (13,667) (3,034) Opening cash bal. 6,173 9,610 13,759 18,265 22,439 8,772 Closing cash bal. 9,610 13,759 18,229 22,439 8,772 5,738
  • 13. SAIL | 2QFY2011 Result Update October 29, 2010 13 Key ratios Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Valuation ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) 13.0 10.7 13.0 11.9 13.4 11.4 P/CEPS 10.9 9.2 11.0 10.1 10.9 9.2 P/BV 4.7 3.5 2.9 2.4 2.1 1.8 Dividend yield (%) 1.6 1.9 - 1.7 1.3 1.3 EV/Sales 2.2 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.7 EV/EBITDA 8.0 6.3 8.2 7.6 9.0 7.4 EV/Total assets 3.3 2.5 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.5 Per share data (`) EPS (Basic) 15.0 18.2 14.9 16.4 14.5 17.1 EPS (fully diluted) 15.0 18.2 14.9 16.4 14.5 17.1 Cash EPS 17.8 21.1 17.8 19.4 18.0 21.1 DPS 3.1 3.7 - 3.3 2.6 2.6 Book value 41.9 55.8 67.8 80.7 92.1 106.2 DuPont analysis EBIT margin 23.9 24.7 16.6 20.8 16.7 19.4 Tax retention ratio (%) 65.8 65.7 65.7 66.7 67.0 67.0 Asset turnover (x) 2.7 2.9 2.7 1.7 1.3 1.1 RoIC (Post-tax) 42.4 47.8 29.3 24.0 15.0 14.6 Cost of debt (post tax) - - - - 2.2 2.9 Leverage (x) - - - - 0.0 0.2 Operating RoE 42.4 47.8 29.3 24.0 15.5 16.6 Returns (%) RoCE (Pre-tax) 39.8 39.1 22.5 19.1 15.3 18.8 Angel RoIC (pre-tax) 69.9 83.8 61.4 65.2 49.5 45.5 RoE 41.5 37.3 24.2 22.0 16.8 17.3 Turnover ratios (x) Asset turnover (gross block) 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.2 Inventory (days) 186 184 204 178 180 180 Receivables (days) 28 25 31 40 45 40 Payables (days) 80 84 123 125 125 125 WC cycle (days) 64 61 66 69 57 63 Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity (0.3) (0.5) (0.4) (0.2) 0.0 0.2 Net debt to EBITDA (0.6) (1.0) (1.3) (0.6) 0.2 0.6 Interest coverage 24.8 39.4 28.6 21.0 17.4 20.1
  • 14. SAIL | 2QFY2011 Result Update October 29, 2010 14 Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com DISCLAIMER This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report. Disclosure of Interest Statement SAIL 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock Yes 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors. Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)