1. Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
Particulars (` cr) 2QFY2011 2QFY2010 % chg (yoy) 1QFY2011 % chg (qoq)
Net sales 10,603 9,944 6.6 9,029 17.4
EBITDA 1,695 2,388 (29.0) 1,843 (8.0)
EBITDA margin (%) 16.0 24.0 (803bp) 20.4 (443bp)
Net profit 1,090 1,663 (34.5) 1,177 (7.4)
Source: Company, Angel Research
For 2QFY2011, SAIL’s net revenue came in at `10,603cr, above our estimate of
Rs9,110cr. Net profit at `1,090cr was also above our estimate of `994cr. The
deviation in top-line was mainly due to higher sales volumes of 3mn tonnes as
compared to our estimate of 2.64mn tonnes.
Costs headwind continues: For 2QFY2011, net revenue increased by 6.6% yoy
and 17.4% qoq to `10,603cr. While sales volume grew 2.7% yoy and 26.3% qoq
to 3mn tonnes, realisations increased 3.8% yoy to `34,993/tonne, though down
7.0% qoq. Despite top-line growing, EBITDA declined 29% yoy and 8% qoq to
`1,695cr as EBITDA margins contracted by 803bp yoy and 443bp qoq to 16% on
account of: a) higher coking coal cost during the quarter, and b) an additional
provision of `70.1cr towards employee-related benefits. Net interest income
declined 49.3% yoy and 8.6% qoq to `223cr, whereas depreciation expense
increased 11% yoy and 5.2% qoq to `369cr. Thus, higher costs resulted in net
income decreasing by 34.5% yoy and 7.4% qoq to `1,090cr.
Outlook and Valuation: At the CMP, the stock is trading at 9.0x FY2011E and
7.4x FY2012E EV/EBITDA, respectively. Going ahead, we believe that SAIL will
benefit from the strong domestic demand. Nonetheless, as benefits of capacity
expansion are expected only post FY2012 we maintain our Neutral view on the
stock. Further, news flow related to follow-on public offer in the near future could
direct the stock price movement from current levels.
Key Financials
Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Net sales 43,719 40,551 46,594 52,932
% chg 9.3 (7.2) 14.9 13.6
Net profit 6,175 6,754 5,996 7,079
% chg (18.1) 9.4 (11.2) 18.1
EPS (`) 14.9 16.4 14.5 17.1
EBITDA margin (%) 19.5 24.1 19.7 22.5
P/E (x) 13.0 11.9 13.4 11.4
P/BV (x) 2.9 2.4 2.1 1.8
RoE (%) 24.2 22.0 16.8 17.3
RoCE (%) 22.5 19.1 15.3 18.8
EV/Sales (x) 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.2 7.6 9.0 7.4
Source: Company, Angel Research
NEUTRAL
CMP `195
Target Price -
Investment Period -
Stock Info
Sector
Bloomberg Code SAIL@IN
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters 85.8
MF / Banks / Indian Fls 7.5
FII / NRIs / OCBs 4.4
Indian Public / Others 2.3
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
Sensex 11.3 24.8 0.3
SAIL (4.8) 16.0 (29.5)
10
20,032
6,018
SAIL.BO
80,522
1.4
259/155
881059
Steel
Avg. Daily Volume
Market Cap (Rs cr)
Beta
52 Week High / Low
Face Value (Rs)
BSE Sensex
Nifty
Reuters Code
Paresh Jain
Tel: 022-40403800 Ext: 348
pareshn.jain@angelbroking.com
Pooja Jain
Tel: 022-40403800 Ext: 311
pooja.j@angelbroking.com
Steel Authority of India
Performance Highlights
2QFY2011 Result Update | Steel
October 29, 2010
2. SAIL | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 29, 2010 2
Exhibit 1: 2QFY2011 performance
(` cr) 2QFY11 2QFY10 yoy (%) 1HFY11 1HFY10 yoy (%)
Net sales 10,603 9,944 6.6 19,632 18,895 3.9
Raw material 5,167 4,276 20.8 8,192 8,396 (2.4)
% of net sales 48.7 43.0 41.7 44.4
Power & fuel 877 877 (0.0) 1,755 1,692 3.7
% of net sales 8.3 8.8 8.9 9.0
Staff cost 1,700 1,128 50.8 3,712 2,199 68.8
% of net sales 16.0 11.3 18.9 11.6
Other expenditure 914 807 13.4 1,907 1,539 23.9
% of net sales 8.6 8.1 9.7 8.1
Total expenditure 9,111 7,651 19.1 16,402 14,928 9.9
Operating profit 1,491 2,293 (35.0) 3,230 3,967 (18.6)
OPM% 14.1 23.1 16.5 21.0
Other operating income 203 95 113.7 307 297 3.4
EBITDA 1,695 2,388 (29.0) 3,538 4,264 (17.0)
% of net sales 16.0 24.0 18.0 22.6
Interest income/(expenses) 223 441 (49.3) 468 891 (47.5)
Depreciation 369 332 11.0 719 659 9.1
Other income 43 22 93.5 55 29 91.1
Exceptional items - - - -
Profit before tax 1,592 2,519 (36.8) 3,341 4,525 (26.2)
% of net sales 15.0 25.3 17.0 23.9
Current tax 502 855 (41.3) 1,075 1,535 (30.0)
% Tax rate 31.5 34.0 32.2 33.9
Profit after tax 1,090 1,663 (34.5) 2,267 2,990 (24.2)
% of net sales 10.3 16.7 11.5 15.8
EPS (`) 2.6 4.0 (34.5) 5.5 7.2 (24.2)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2QFY2011 - Actual v/s Angel estimates
(` cr) Actual Estimate Variation (%)
Net Sales 10,603 9,110 16.4
EBITDA 1,695 1,605 5.6
EBITDA margins (%) 16.0 17.6 (164bp)
PBT 1,592 1,483 7.4
PAT 1,090 994 9.7
Source: Company, Angel Research
3. SAIL | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 29, 2010 3
Conference call - Key takeaways
In August 2010, there was a breakdown of the blast furnace unit at Bokaro,
which led to lower production. However, going ahead, the company expects
the production to increase.
The finished steel inventory level stood at 1.23mn tonnes as compared to
1.36mn tonnes in 1QFY2011, of which 100kt were defectives which the
company may dispose off as scrap. The balance inventory is expected to be
sold in the coming quarters.
During the quarter, the royalty rate on iron ore on ad valorem basis increased
to `200/tonne as against `160/tonne in 1QFY2011. As a result, the negative
impact of royalty on iron ore was `25cr during the quarter.
The company consumed 0.7mn tonnes of rolled–over, high-cost
(US $300/tonne) coking coal inventory in 2QFY2011 as compared to around
1mn tonne in 1QFY2011. Management indicated that 0.5mn tonne each of
the high-cost coking coal inventory will be consumed in 3QFY2011 and
4QFY2011. In FY2012, it expects to consume 1.7mn tonnes of the high cost
coking coal.
Management mentioned that it is yet to settle the domestic coal prices with
Coal India. However, they have accounted for a 5% provisional increase in the
coal prices. The company expects the settlement to take place in 3QFY2011.
Commissioning of the ISP project has been delayed by three months and is
expected to come on stream in 3QFY2012.
During the quarter, SAIL incurred capex of `2,500cr. For FY2011,
management has planned capex of `12,254cr.
4. SAIL | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 29, 2010 4
Result Highlights
Net revenue above estimates led by higher sales volume
While saleable steel production was flat at 3.1mn tonnes, saleable sales volume
increased by 2.7% yoy and 26.3% qoq to 3.0mn tonnes. Realisation increased by
3.8% yoy to `34,993/tonne, but fell 7.0% qoq. Thus, driven by higher volumes, net
revenue grew 6.6% yoy and 17.4% qoq to `10,603cr.
Exhibit 3: Sales volume stood at 3mn tonnes
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 4: Net revenue up 6.6% yoy
Source: Company, Angel Research
EBITDA margin contracts due to higher cost
Despite top-line growing, EBITDA declined 29% yoy and 8% qoq to `1,695cr as
EBITDA margins contracted by 803bp yoy and 443bp qoq to 16% on account of:
a) higher coking coal cost during the quarter, and b) an additional provision of
`70.1cr towards employee-related benefits.
During the quarter, raw material cost per tonne increased by 18.2% yoy and
40.1% qoq to `16,542 during the quarter mainly on account of higher coking coal
cost. Further, staff cost per tonne of saleable steel increased 46.8% yoy to `5,612.
Hence, staff cost increased by 50.8% yoy to `1,700cr during the quarter.
Exhibit 5: Quarterly performance
(`/tonne of saleable steel) 2QFY11 2QFY10 yoy (%) 1QFY11 qoq (%)
Revenue 34,993 33,708 3.8 37,622 (7.0)
Cost 30,071 25,935 15.9 30,377 (1.0)
Raw-material cost 16,542 14,000 18.2 11,809 40.1
Consumption of stores 2,005 2,405 (16.6) 2,389 (16.1)
Power and fuel 2,893 2,973 (2.7) 3,660 (20.9)
Staff cost 5,612 3,823 46.8 8,382 (33.1)
Other expenditure 3,018 2,735 10.4 4,137 (27.0)
EBITDA 5,593 8,096 (30.9) 7,679 (27.2)
EBITDA (US $/tonne) 120 167 (28.2) 168 (28.7)
Source: Company, Angel Research
2.8 3.0 2.9
3.4
2.4
3.0
28,000
30,000
32,000
34,000
36,000
38,000
40,000
0
1
2
3
4
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11
(`/tonne)
(mntonnes)
Sales volume (LHS) Average realisation (RHS)
8,951
9,944 9,697
11,955
9,029
10,603
(30)
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11
(%)
(`cr)
Net revenue (LHS) yoy chg (RHS)
5. SAIL | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 29, 2010 5
Exhibit 6: Volatility in staff cost continues
Source: Company, Angel Research
Net interest income declined 49.3% yoy and 8.6% qoq to `223cr whereas
depreciation expense increased 11% yoy and 5.2% qoq to `369cr. Thus, higher
cost resulted in net income decreasing by 34.5% yoy and 7.4% qoq to `1,090cr.
Exhibit 7: EBITDA margin down due to higher cost
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 8: Net profit declined 34.5% yoy
Source: Company, Angel Research
1,071 1,128
1,571 1,638
2,012
1,700
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11
(%)
(`cr)
Staff cost (LHS) as % of net revenue (RHS)
1,876
2,388
2,578
3,097
1,843
1,695
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11
(%)
(`cr)
EBITDA (LHS) EBITDA margin (RHS)
1,326
1,663 1,676
2,085
1,177 1,090
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11
(%)
(`cr)
Net profit (LHS) Net profit margin (RHS)
6. SAIL | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 29, 2010 6
Investment Rationale
Volume growth unexciting in the near term
Owing to SAIL’s ongoing capacity expansion plan, steel capacity is expected to
double by FY2013–14. The expansion plan along with development of the raw
material mines will cost the company `70,000cr. SAIL’s order placements for its
expansion plan are nearing completion. The company has already placed orders
worth `48,000cr.
Exhibit 9: Capacity to double by FY2013–14
Source: Company, Angel Research
While the ISP plant is expected to be commissioned in 3QFY2012, most of the
company’s additional capacity is expected to come on stream post FY2012. Thus,
we expect muted sales volume CAGR of 6.7% over FY2010–12.
Exhibit 10: Sales volume CAGR at 6.7% over FY2010–12E
Source: Company, Angel Research
14.5 13.5 12.6
11.7
11.1
10.5
0
10
20
30
Hot Metal Crude steel Saleable Steel
(mntonne)
Existing Expansion
(12)
(8)
(4)
0
4
8
12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E
(%)
(mntonne)
Sales volume (LHS) yoy change (RHS)
7. SAIL | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 29, 2010 7
Product mix to improve
Post expansion and modernisation of the steel plants, SAIL will benefit from the
improvement in product mix. Management plans to reduce sale of semis to nil post
expansion of its steel capacity. Semis constituted 19.7% of the company’s product
mix in FY2010. Moreover, contribution of structurals is expected to improve to 15%
from the current 4.5%.
Exhibit 11: Product mix (%, FY2010)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 12: Product mix post expansion (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Outlook and Valuation
At the CMP, the stock is trading at 9.0x FY2011E and 7.4x FY2012E EV/EBITDA,
respectively. Going ahead, we believe SAIL will benefit from strong domestic
demand. However, as the benefits of capacity expansion are expected only post
FY2012 we maintain our Neutral view on the stock. Further, news flow related to
follow-on public offer in the near term could direct the stock price movement from
current levels.
We have revised our estimates for FY2011 and FY2012 to factor in higher costs
and other book-keeping changes.
Exhibit 13: Key assumptions
FY2011E FY2012E
Saleable steel volume (mn tonnes) 12.6 13.9
Average realisation (`/tonne) 36,979 38,191
Average coal costs (`/tonne) 9,849 9,918
Source: Angel research
24.1
8.7
20.5
19.7
10.2
8
4.5 2.8 0.5
HRC/sheets
CRC/sheets
Plates
Semis
Rounds/bars
Railway material
Structurals
Coated products
Pipes
22.1
10.4
16.423.3
7.4
15
4.8
0.6
HRC/sheets
CRC/sheets
Plates
Semis
Rounds/bars
Railway material
Structurals
Coated products
Pipes
14. SAIL | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 29, 2010 14
Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement SAIL
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock Yes
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)
Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)