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4QFY2010 Result Update I Telecom
                                                                                                                        May 18, 2010




  Reliance Communications                                                              ACCUMULATE
                                                                                       CMP                                   Rs145
  Performance Highlights                                                               Target Price                          Rs155
   Reliance Communications’ (RCOM) 4QFY2010 performance failed to meet                 Investment Period                 12 Months
   our expectations on the core operations front. Wireless revenue grew 1.7%
   qoq (down 9% yoy), which was lower than the industry average in the                 Stock Info
   quarter. The company has crossed the 100mn subscriber milestone during
                                                                                       Sector                              Telecom
   the quarter. Global business grew by 2.3% qoq (7.8% yoy), whereas
   broadband segment sales declined by 3.5% qoq (3.9% yoy). Profit after tax,          Market Cap (Rs cr)                    29,928
   however, grew by 10.1% sequentially (down 16% yoy), largely on account of
                                                                                       Beta                                     1.2
   higher interest earned (up 99% qoq). We recommend an Accumulate on the
   stock.                                                                              52 WK High / Low                    359/140

   Mediocre growth across businesses: RCOM recorded a growth of 1.7% qoq               Avg. Daily Volume                 22,47,928
   in the Top-line during 4QFY2010 to Rs5,093cr, mainly due to a strong                Face Value (Rs)                            5
   subscriber growth of 9.2% qoq to 102.4mn and total traffic growth of 5%
   qoq. The growth in the Minutes of Usage (MoU) was lower than the industry           BSE Sensex                            16,876
   minute growth of ~10%, however it managed to restrict the decline in the            Nifty                                  5,066
   Revenue per Minute (RPM) at Rs0.44 (down by Rs0.01), which is
   commendable. Global business segment revenue grew by 2.3% qoq, led by a             Reuters Code                       RLCM.BO
   13.8% growth in the Long Distance minutes. However, Broadband revenues
                                                                                       Bloomberg Code                     RCOM.IN
   declined 3.5% qoq, despite significant addition in the number of Access lines.
   RCOM recorded a contraction of 260bp qoq (decline of 400bp yoy) in its              Shareholding Pattern (%)
   EBITDA Margin, mainly due to higher Network Operation Costs. However,
   higher interest earned resulted in a bottom-line growth of 10.1% qoq.               Promoters                               67.6

                                                                                       MF/Banks/Indian FIs                     12.2
   Outlook and Valuation: Going forward, we expect RCOM to post a 7% CAGR
   in its Top-line over FY2010-12E, while the Bottom-line is expected to record a      FII/NRIs/OCBs                            9.0
   compounded de-growth of 12%. We have factored in a 21% CAGR in the                  Indian Public                           11.2
   mobile subscriber base over FY2010-12E, while also modeling for a 12%
   compounded fall in the RPM. We have valued the stock at Rs155 per share,            Abs. (%)            3m      1yr          3yr
   at 8.5x of its FY2012E earnings, and at a 40% discount to our target multiple
                                                                                       Sensex              3.4     18.1        18.0
   for Bharti (Historical discount during FY2008-10 of 30%). The higher discount
   to Bharti is justified in view of the latter’s superior operating performance
                                                                                       R Com             (13.4)   (49.2)       (70.8)
   (ARPU/RPM/MoU), higher ROE and lower leverage position. We recommend
   an Accumulate on the stock, with a Target Price of Rs155.

    Key Financials (Consolidated)
    Y/E March (Rs cr)                   FY2009       FY2010E      FY2011E    FY2012E
    Net Sales                            22251         21496       22412      24592
    % chg                                  18.2          (3.4)        4.3        9.7
    Net Profit                            6045           4777       3674       3698
    % chg                                  46.4         (21.0)      (23.1)       0.7
    FDEPS (Rs)                             28.0          22.1        17.0       17.1
    EBITDA Margin (%)                      38.7          34.0        31.5       30.0
    P/E (x)                                 5.2            6.5        8.5        8.5   Rahul Jain
    P/BV (x)                                0.7            0.8        0.7        0.7   Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 345

    RoE (%)                                14.3          12.4         8.7        8.1   E-mail: Rahul.j@angeltrade.com

    RoCE (%)                                6.9            5.5        4.9        4.7
                                                                                       Vibha Salvi
    EV/EBIDTA (x)                           6.7            6.8        7.2        6.6
                                                                                       Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 329
    ARPUs (Rs/user/month)                   244           158        154        146
                                                                                       E-mail: vibhas.salvi@angeltrade.com
   Source: Company, Angel Research



                                                                                                                                      1
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report                         Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539
Reliance Communications I 4QFY2010 Result Update


 Exhibit 1: 4QFY2010 Consolidated Financial Performance
 Y/E March (Rs cr)                  4QFY10       4QFY09            % chg       3QFY10         % chg      FY2010    FY2009      % chg
                                                                    (yoy)                      (qoq)
 Net Revenues                         5,093         5,798          (12.2)        5,310          (4.1)    21,496    22,251       (3.4)
 Operating Expenditure                3,491         3,741           (6.7)        3,497          (0.2)    14,312    13,517         5.9
 Operating Profit (EBITDA)            1,602         2,057          (22.1)        1,813        (11.6)      7,185     8,733      (17.7)
 Finance Charges (Net)                 (813)         (494)                        (408)                  (1,822)   (1,078)
 Depreciation & Amortisation          1,085         1,143           (5.1)          833         30.2        3,747     3,608        3.8
 ESOP amortisation                          1        (157)       (100.9)             22      (93.4)           37           7   401.6
 Income before Income Taxes           1,329         1,565         (15.1)         1,365        (2.6)       5,223     6,197      (15.7)
 Tax                                     192            49         296.1           200        (4.0)          445       (52)
 Minority Interest                       (83)           65       (227.4)             56     (247.4)          119       205     (41.9)
 Share of Associates                        -           (2)                           1     (100.0)            3         (2)
 Net Income                           1,220         1,454          (16.1)        1,108         10.1       4,655     6,045      (23.0)
 Diluted EPS (Rs)                         5.4          6.8         (19.4)           5.2         5.6         21.6      28.1     (22.9)
 EBITDA Margin (%)                      31.5          35.5                         34.1                     33.4      39.3
 Net Profit Margin (%)                  23.9          25.1                         20.9                     21.7      27.2
 Mobile ARPUs (Rs/user/month)         139.0         224.0          (37.9)        149.0         (6.7)      158.0     244.0      (35.2)
  Source: Company, Angel Research


                                     De-growth in Broadband and Global businesses drags the Top-line

                                     RCOM recorded a small growth of 1.7% qoq (decline of 9% yoy) in its wire line
                                     revenues, led by strong subscriber growth of 9.2% and traffic growth of 5% qoq. The
                                     RPM declined by Rs0.01 (2.2% qoq) to Rs0.44, which was lower compared to the
                                     industry average, since RCOM was one of the first operators to reduce tariffs
                                     through the launch of its ‘Simply Reliance’ plans. The MoU per subscriber declined
                                     by 3.6% qoq to 318 minutes. RCOM’s wireless market share reached to 17.7%, with
                                     a total subscriber count of 102mn. The Churn ratio expanded to 2.8% from 2% in
                                     3QFY2010, highlighting the increased competitive intensity. Although the traffic
                                     growth was below the industry average, the company managed to restrict the fall in
                                     the RPM to a mere 2% qoq. We believe that the recent launch of its unlimited
                                     (monthly and daily cap applicable) plan, under the new ‘Simply Reliance’ plan
                                     would boost its traffic growth in the coming period.

                                     The company recorded a 2.3% qoq growth (7.8% yoy growth) in its Global business,
                                     mainly due to the NLD minutes’ traffic growth of 18% qoq, which was supported by
                                     a reduction in the call charges. ILD traffic, however, declined by 6% qoq. The
                                     Broadband Business revenues declined by 3.5% qoq (fall of 3.9% yoy), on account
                                     of a 5.5% qoq fall in the Average Revenue per line (ARPL) per month to Rs1,551.
                                     The company added a net 15,000 Access lines during the quarter, taking the total
                                     Access line count to 1.46mn.

                                     The intersegment revenue witnessed a 16% qoq growth, on account of an increase
                                     in NLD Traffic and on-net traffic.

                                     Exhibit 2: Segment-wise Revenue Break-up
                                                                            4QFY10        4QFY09        3QFY10       % chg      % chg
                                                                              Rs cr         Rs cr         Rs cr        Yoy        qoq
                                      Wireless                                4,090         4,502         4,023        (9.1)       1.7
                                      Global                                  2,028         1,880         1,982         7.8        2.3
                                      Broadband                                680            708          705         (3.9)     (3.5)
                                      Others*                                  285            313          316                  (10.0)
                                      Gross Revenues                          7,082         7,403         7,025        (4.3)       0.8
                                      Less: Inter-segment
                                                                              1,989         1,605         1,715        24.0       16.0
                                      Revenues
                                      Net Revenues                            5,093         5,798         5,310      (12.2)      (4.1)
                                     Note:* includes Reliance Big TV and network operating revenues

May 18, 2010                                                                                                                             2
Reliance Communications I 4QFY2010 Result Update



               Margins decline on higher Network Expenses and Access Charges

               RCOM recorded a contraction of 260bp yoy (decline of 400bp qoq) in its EBITDA
               Margin, mainly due to higher Network Operation Costs, which spiked by 200bp qoq
               (up 650bp yoy). The access charges were also up 190bp qoq (up 120bp yoy), and
               SG&A expenses grew by 16.8% qoq; however, a reduction of 20bp qoq in staff costs
               restricted a further erosion in the margins during the quarter. EBIDTA per minute
               (EPM) declined by 7% or Rs0.01 at Rs0.13. The company’s cost per minute remained
               flat at Rs0.31, resulting in a decline in the margin spread. Going forward, we
               believe that the company would continue to face margin pressures on account of its
               recent plan launch, which offers free bundled minutes to R2R as well as to other
               service providers. This would cap the revenue realisation per subscriber, but would
               cause a variable rise in the operating cost (positively correlated to a growth in
               traffic).

               Higher Interest earned supports Bottom-line

               The company recorded a 99% growth in Interest earned during the quarter to
               Rs813cr, which arrested the impact of the decline in the operating margins.
               Depreciation costs grew by 30% qoq, as the company charged certain assets for
               impairment (one-time expense) during the quarter, which would normalise in the
               coming quarter at the 3QFY2010 run-rate. The tax rate remained flat at 14.5%, but
               the losses in subsidiaries (Minority Interest) stood at Rs83cr as against the profits of
               Rs56cr in 3QFY2010. The PAT for the quarter stood at Rs1,220cr, up 10.1% qoq
               (down 16.1% yoy). Going forward, the profitability would come under pressure as
               the increased leverage (capex of Rs3,000cr and 3G requirements) would dent the
               net interest earnings in the coming quarters.

               Exhibit 3: Wireless Business operating metrics
                                                                                                 % chg    % chg
                                                            4QFY10         3QFY09     3QFY10
                                                                                                   yoy      qoq
                Gross revenues (Rs cr)                         4,090         4,502     4,023      (9.1)     1.7
                Mobile subscriber base (Mn)                    102.4          72.7       93.8     40.9       9.2
                Mobile ARPUs (Rs/user/month)                     139          224        149     (37.9)    (6.7)
                Total minutes of usage (Mn)                   93,500        74,800    89,000      25.0       5.1
                Revenues per minute (Rs)                        0.44          0.60       0.45    (27.3)    (3.2)
                MoUs per user per month                          318          372        330     (14.5)    (3.6)
                EBITDA (Rs cr)                                 1,182         1,663     1,254     (28.9)    (5.8)
                EBITDA Margins (%)                              28.9          36.9       31.2     (8.1)    (2.3)
                EBITDA/minute (Rs)                              0.13          0.22       0.14    (43.2)   (10.4)
                EBIT (Rs cr)                                     761          902        848     (15.7)   (10.3)
                EBIT Margins (%)                                18.6          20.0       21.1     (1.4)    (2.5)
               Source: Company, Angel Research, Margin change is in Bps

               Exhibit 4: Global Business operating metrics
                                                                                                % chg     % chg
                                                           4QFY10         3QFY09     3QFY10
                                                                                                   yoy       qoq
                Gross revenues (Rs cr)                       2,028          1,880     1,982        7.8       2.3
                Total minutes of usage (Mn)                 18,742         11,073    16,466       69.3      13.8
                Revenues per minute (Rs)                      1.08           1.70      1.20     (36.3)    (10.1)
                EBITDA (Rs cr)                                 356            503       419     (29.3)    (15.2)
                EBITDA Margins (%)                            17.5           26.7      21.2      (9.2)     (3.6)
                EBITDA/minute (Rs)                            0.19           0.45      0.25     (58.2)    (25.5)
                EBIT (Rs cr)                                   132            286       181     (54.0)    (27.1)
                EBIT Margins (%)                                6.5          15.2        9.1     (8.7)     (2.6)
               Source: Company, Angel Research, Margin change is in Bps




May 18, 2010                                                                                                   3
Reliance Communications I 4QFY2010 Result Update


               Exhibit 5: Broadband Business operating metrics
                                                                                         % chg     % chg
                                                   4QFY10       3QFY09      3QFY10
                                                                                           yoy       qoq
                Gross revenues (Rs cr)                680           708         705       (3.9)     (3.5)
                Access lines ('000)                 1,469         1,385       1,455         6.1       1.0
                ARPLs (Rs/line/month)               1,661         1,680       1,654       (1.1)       0.5
                Buildings directly
                                               1,029,327        929,600    1,018,732      10.7        1.0
                connected
                EBITDA (Rs cr)                        253            316         275    (20.1)      (8.3)
                EBITDA Margins (%)                   37.2           44.7        39.1    (16.8)      (5.0)
                EBIT (Rs cr)                          135            209         158    (35.3)     (14.3)
                EBIT Margins (%)                     19.9           29.5        22.4     (9.6)      (2.5)
               Source: Company, Angel Research, Margin change is in Bps

               Exhibit 6: RCOM v/s Peers - Mobility Business metrics
                                                                    4QFY10             3QFY09     3QFY10
                 Mobile subscriber base (Mn)
                 Bharti Airtel                                         127.6              93.9      118.9
                 RCOM                                                  102.4              72.7       93.8
                 Idea                                                   63.8              38.9       52.3
                 % Inc/Dec over Bharti                                 (19.7)            (22.6)     (21.1)
                 % Inc/Dec over Idea                                     60.5              86.8       79.3
                 Wireless/Mobile Business Revenues (Rs cr)
                 Bharti Airtel                                         8,198             8,222      7,962
                 RCOM                                                  4,090             4,502      4,023
                 Idea                                                  3,312             2,936      3,123
                 % Inc/Dec over Bharti                                 (50.1)            (45.2)     (49.5)
                 % Inc/Dec over Idea                                     23.5              53.3       28.8
                 Wireless/Mobile Business ARPUs (Rs/user/month)
                 Bharti Airtel                                           220               305        230
                 RCOM                                                    139               224        149
                 Idea                                                    185               255        200
                 % Inc/Dec over Bharti                                 (36.8)            (26.6)     (35.2)
                 % Inc/Dec over Idea                                   (24.9)            (12.2)     (25.5)
                 Wireless/Mobile Business total MoUs (Mn minutes)
                 Bharti Airtel                                      172,797            130,669    153,241
                 RCOM                                                93,500             74,800     89,000
                 Idea                                                68,275             44,224     57,841
                 % Inc/Dec over Bharti                                 (45.9)            (42.8)     (41.9)
                 % Inc/Dec over Idea                                     36.9              69.1       53.9
                 Wireless/Mobile Business MoUs (Minutes/customer/month)
                 Bharti Airtel                                           468               485        446
                 RCOM                                                    318               372        330
                 Idea                                                    398               402        389
                 % Inc/Dec over Bharti                                 (32.1)            (23.3)     (26.0)
                 % Inc/Dec over Idea                                   (20.1)             (7.5)     (15.2)
                 Wireless/Mobile Business RPMs (Rs)
                 Bharti Airtel                                          0.47              0.63       0.52
                 RCOM                                                   0.44              0.60       0.45
                 Idea                                                   0.47              0.63       0.51
                 % Inc/Dec over Bharti                                  (7.8)             (4.4)     (13.0)
                 % Inc/Dec over Idea                                    (6.9)             (4.5)     (11.4)
                 Source: Company, Angel Research




May 18, 2010                                                                                                4
Reliance Communications I 4QFY2010 Result Update


               Outlook and Valuation
               Going forward, we expect the recurring revenues of the Global business to show an
               increasing trend, led by traffic growth in the NLD and ILD voice businesses. In the
               Wireless segment, the company has already incurred huge investments in the past,
               which includes the capex on the GSM network setup in the last one year, and it is
               likely to spend an estimated amount in upward of over $2bn for the 3G spectrum in
               FY2011E. The increased capex requirement would further strain the interest burden
               in FY2012E. Wireless revenues are likely to grow at a modest rate of about 4%, as
               the growth in the traffic would be curbed by lower per minute realisations.

               RCOM’s passive infrastructure sharing agreement with Etisalat DB is also expected
               to book revenues in FY2011E, which is expected to improve Reliance Infratel’s
               revenues, tenancy ratio and profitability, going forward. The company has 50,000
               towers, with a tenancy ratio of ~1.75x (best in the industry). The company has been
               sharing infrastructure with all the major domestic as well as new players. The
               company’s plans regarding Reliance Infratel’s IPO listing are under consideration,
               through which the company plans to dilute a 10% stake in Reliance Infratel.
               However, taking cognisance of the current capital market dynamics, the company
               intends to wait for the right time to take this step.

               Going forward, we expect RCOM to post a 7% CAGR in its Top-line over FY2010-
               12E, while the Bottom-line is expected to record a compounded de-growth of 12%.
               We have factored in a 21% CAGR in the mobile subscriber base over FY2010-12E,
               while also modeling for a 12% compounded fall in the RPM. At the CMP, the stock is
               trading at a P/E of 8x on its FY2012E EPS, and an EV/EBITDA of 6.6x its FY2012E
               EBITDA. Although the valuations appear attractive, we believe that the likely
               headwinds in terms of intense price war, mobile number portability, and costly
               spectrum charges would hamper profitability, while increasing the capital intensity in
               the sector. Hence, in view of the increased uncertainty, we are downgrading our
               earnings estimates for FY2011E and FY2012E.

               We have valued the stock at Rs155 per share, at 8.5x of its FY2012E earnings, and
               at a 40% discount to our target multiple for Bharti (Historical discount during
               FY2008-10 of 30%). The higher discount to Bharti is justified in view of the latter’s
               superior operating performance (ARPU/RPM/MoU), higher ROE and lower leverage
               position. We recommend an Accumulate on the stock, with a Target Price of Rs155.

               Exhibit 7: One year forward P/E Band

                                1000
                                    900
                                    800
                                    700
                 Share Price (Rs)




                                    600
                                    500                                                                                                                        28x
                                    400
                                                                                                                                                               22x
                                    300
                                                                                                                                                               16x
                                    200
                                    100                                                                                                                        10x

                                      0
                                          Apr-06




                                                                     Apr-07




                                                                                                Apr-08




                                                                                                                           Apr-09




                                                                                                                                                      Apr-10
                                                   Aug-06




                                                                              Aug-07




                                                                                                         Aug-08




                                                                                                                                    Aug-09
                                                            Dec-06




                                                                                       Dec-07




                                                                                                                  Dec-08




                                                                                                                                             Dec-09




               Source: Company, Angel Research




May 18, 2010                                                                                                                                                    5
Reliance Communications I 4QFY2010 Result Update




               Exhibit 8: Premium/Discount in RCOM P/E v/s Bharti Airtel P/E
                       60
                       50
                       40
                       30
                       20
                       10
                        0




                (%)
                      (10)
                      (20)
                      (30)
                      (40)
                      (50)
                      (60)




                                               Aug-06




                                                                                                     Aug-07




                                                                                                                                                           Aug-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Aug-09
                                      Jun-06




                                                                                            Jun-07




                                                                                                                                                  Jun-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jun-09
                                                                 Dec-06




                                                                                                                       Dec-07




                                                                                                                                                                             Dec-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Dec-09
                             Apr-06




                                                                                   Apr-07




                                                                                                                                         Apr-08




                                                                                                                                                                                               Apr-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Apr-10
                                                        Oct-06


                                                                          Feb-07




                                                                                                              Oct-07


                                                                                                                                Feb-08




                                                                                                                                                                    Oct-08


                                                                                                                                                                                      Feb-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Oct-09


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Feb-10
                                                                   Premium/Discount to Bharti Airtel                                                                             Avg. Historical Discount

               Source: Company, Angel Research




May 18, 2010                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  6
Reliance Communications I 4QFY2010 Result Update



               Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated)                                         (Rs cr)
               Y/E March                         FY2008       FY2009    FY2010E    FY2011E    FY2012E
               Gross sales                       22,665       26,988     28,424     29,635     32,517
               Less: Inter-segment revenues        3,838       4,737      6,928      7,223      7,926
               Net Sales                         18,827       22,251     21,496     22,412     24,592
               Other operating income                     -         -          -          -             -
               Total operating income            18,827       22,251     21,496     22,412     24,592
               % chg                                32.0        18.2       (3.4)       4.3         9.7
               Total Expenditure                 10,853       13,644     14,189     15,352     17,214
               Cost of Services                   6,259        7,985      9,566     10,085     11,312
               SGA                                3,406        3,986      3,076      3,698      4,181
               Personnel                          1,188        1,673      1,548      1,569      1,721
               Other                                      -         -          -          -             -
               EBITDA                             7,975        8,607      7,307      7,060      7,378
               % chg                                44.6         7.9      (15.1)      (3.4)        4.5
               (% of Net Sales)                     42.4        38.7       34.0       31.5       30.0
               Depreciation& Amortisation          2,805       3,608      3,747      3,818      4,121
               EBIT                               5,170        4,999      3,560      3,242      3,257
               % chg                                69.5        (3.3)     (28.8)      (9.0)        0.5
               (% of Net Sales)                     27.5        22.5       16.6       14.5       13.2
               Interest & other Charges            (400)       (507)     (1,186)     (500)      (500)
               Other Income                         240         698         636        672        738
               (% of PBT)                               4.1     11.2       11.8       15.2       16.4
               Share in profit of Associates              -         -          -          -             -
               Recurring PBT                      5,810        6,204      5,383      4,414      4,495
               % chg                                78.5         6.8      (13.2)     (18.0)        1.8
               Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.)      (1,267)           7         37           -             -
               PBT (reported)                     7,076        6,197      5,345      4,414      4,495
               Tax                                  284         (52)        445        618        674
               (% of PBT)                               4.0     (0.8)       8.3       14.0       15.0
               PAT (reported)                     6,793        6,249      4,900      3,796      3,821
               Add: Share of earnings of
                                                    (1.5)        1.6       (3.2)      (3.2)      (3.2)
               associate
               Less: Minority interest (MI)      1,390.1       205.2      119.3      119.3      119.3
               Prior period items                         -         -          -          -             -
               PAT after MI (reported)            5,401        6,045      4,777      3,674      3,698
               ADJ. PAT                           4,135        6,052      4,815      3,674      3,698
               % chg                                29.3        46.4      (20.4)     (23.7)        0.7
               (% of Net Sales)                     28.7        27.2       22.2       16.4       15.0
               Basic EPS (Rs)                       26.2        29.3       23.1       17.8       17.9
               Fully Diluted EPS (Rs)               25.0        28.0       22.1       17.0       17.1
               % chg                                70.5        11.9      (21.0)     (23.1)        0.7




May 18, 2010                                                                                            7
Reliance Communications I 4QFY2010 Result Update



                Balance Sheet (Consolidated)                                                                (Rs cr)
                Y/E March                                   FY2008         FY2009    FY2010E    FY2011E    FY2012E
                SOURCES OF FUNDS
                Equity Share Capital                          1,032         1,032      1,032      1,032      1,032
                Preference Capital                                    -          -          -          -          -
                Reserves& Surplus                            27,994        41,248     37,751     41,209     44,691
                Shareholders Funds                           29,026        42,280     38,783     42,241     45,723
                Minority Interest                             2,431           655        747        747        747
                Total Loans                                  25,822        39,162     24,747     22,882     22,882
                Deferred Tax Liability                          103            28           -          -          -
                Total Liabilities                            57,382        82,126     64,277     65,870     69,352
                APPLICATION OF FUNDS
                Gross Block                                  46,339        75,510     73,443     83,528     90,906
                Less: Acc. Depreciation                       8,956        14,114     19,077     22,895     27,015
                Net Block                                    37,383        61,396     54,366     60,633     63,890
                Capital Work-in-Progress                     14,930        11,310     11,952     11,952     11,952
                Goodwill                                      3,565         5,222      5,222      5,222      5,222
                Investments                                  11,000         9,566        120        120        120
                Current Assets                               10,582        14,714     16,415     14,043     16,917
                Cash                                            878         1,683      4,859      1,984      4,298
                Loans & Advances                              4,269         6,756      5,483      5,983      5,983
                Other                                         5,434         6,276      6,074      6,076      6,636
                Current liabilities                          20,078        20,081     23,798     26,099     28,748
                Net Current Assets                           (9,496)       (5,367)    (7,382)   (12,056)   (11,831)
                Mis. Exp. not written off                             -          -          -          -          -
                Total Assets                                 57,382        82,126     64,277     65,870     69,352

               Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)                                                            (Rs cr)
                Y/E March                                  FY2008         FY2009     FY2010E    FY2011E    FY2012E
                Profit before tax                            7,076          6,197      5,345      4,414      4,495
                Depreciation                                 2,805          3,608      3,747      3,818      4,121
                Change in Working Capital                   (3,584)        (2,025)     5,191      1,799      2,089
                Less: Other income                          (1,635)          (879)       636        672        738
                Direct taxes paid                             (216)          (393)       445        618        674
                Cash Flow from Operations                    4,447          6,508     13,202      8,741      9,292
                (Inc)./ Dec in Fixed Assets                (17,393)       (12,243)    (3,796)   (10,085)    (7,378)
                (Inc)./ Dec. in Investments                 (2,979)         1,557      9,446           -          -
                (Inc)./ Dec. in loans and advances                -              -          -          -          -
                Other income                                   776            678        636        672        738
                Cash Flow from Investing                   (19,595)       (10,008)     6,285     (9,413)    (6,640)
                Issue of Equity                                   -              -          -          -          -
                Inc./(Dec.) in loans                        10,075          7,508    (14,415)    (1,865)          -
                Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)                     (118)          (179)      (205)      (215)     (216)
                Others                                      (1,130)        (3,024)    (1,692)      (122)     (122)
                Cash Flow from Financing                     8,826          4,305    (16,312)    (2,203)     (339)
                Inc./(Dec.) in Cash                         (6,322)           805      3,175     (2,874)     2,314
                Opening Cash balances                        7,201            878      1,683      4,859      1,984
                Closing Cash balances                          878          1,683      4,859      1,984      4,298




May 18, 2010                                                                                                      8
Reliance Communications I 4QFY2010 Result Update


               Key Ratios
                Y/E March                                       FY2008    FY2009   FY2010E   FY2011E   FY2012E
                Valuation Ratio (x)
                P/E (on FDEPS)                                    5.8      5.2       6.5       8.5       8.5
                P/CEPS                                            3.6      3.1       3.5       4.0       3.8
                P/BV                                              1.0      0.7       0.8       0.7       0.7
                Dividend yield (%)                                0.5      0.6       0.6       0.6       0.6
                EV/Sales                                          2.3      2.6       2.3       2.3       2.0
                EV/EBITDA                                         5.5      6.7       6.8       7.2       6.6
                EV / Total Assets                                 0.6      0.6       0.6       0.6       0.5
                Per Share Data (Rs)
                EPS (Basic)                                      26.2      29.3     23.1      17.8      17.9
                EPS (fully diluted)                              25.0      28.0     22.1      17.0      17.1
                Cash EPS                                         39.8      46.8     41.3      36.3      37.9
                DPS                                               0.7      0.8       0.8       0.9       0.9
                Book Value                                       141       205      188        205       222
                Dupont Analysis
                EBIT margin                                      28.7      25.6     19.5      17.5      16.2
                Tax retention ratio                              96.0     100.8     91.7      86.0      85.0
                Asset turnover (x)                                0.3      0.3       0.3       0.3       0.3
                ROIC (Post-tax)                                   8.0      6.5       4.8       3.9       3.7
                Cost of Debt (Post Tax)                          (0.4)     (0.4)    (0.9)     (0.5)     (0.5)
                Leverage (x)                                      1.4      1.8       1.4       1.0       0.9
                Operating ROE                                    19.5      18.6     12.7       8.2       7.5
                Returns (%)
                ROCE (Pre-tax)                                   11.1      6.9       5.5       4.9       4.7
                Angel ROIC (Pre-tax)                             11.8      8.7       6.2       6.5       6.4
                ROE                                              14.2      14.3     12.4       8.7       8.1
                Turnover ratios (x)
                Asset Turnover (Gross Block)                      0.4      0.3       0.3       0.3       0.3
                Inventory / Sales (days)                          8.5      7.5       9.0       8.2       7.9
                Receivables (days)                               43.6      53.2     60.2      51.6      49.2
                Payables (days)                                  166.4     73.9     71.0      70.2      71.2
                Working capital cycle (ex-cash) (days)          (114.4)   (13.2)    (1.8)     (10.4)    (14.1)
                Solvency ratios (x)
                Net debt to equity                                0.5      0.7       0.5       0.5       0.4
                Net debt to EBITDA                                1.7      3.2       2.7       2.9       2.5
                Interest Coverage (EBIT / Interest)                -         -        -         -         -




May 18, 2010                                                                                                     9
Reliance Communications I 4QFY2010 Result Update



Research Team Tel: 022-4040 3800                                          E-mail: research@angeltrade.com                                       Website: www.angeltrade.com


DISCLAIMER

This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this
document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to
arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved),
and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment.

Angel Securities Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are
inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company
may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.

Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as
opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals.

The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true,
and are for general guidance only. Angel Securities Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly,
we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While
Angel Securities Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or
other reasons that prevent us from doing so.

This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on,
directly or indirectly.

Angel Securities Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services
in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past.

Neither Angel Securities Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the
use of this information.
Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section).




 Disclosure of Interest Statement                                                 Reliance Communication
 1.    Analyst ownership of the stock                                                           No
 2.    Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock                                     Yes
 3.    Angel and its Group companies’ Directors ownership of the stock                          No
 4.    Broking relationship with company covered                                                No
 Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel and its Group companies.




                                Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059.
                                                                    Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800



    Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE:
    INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946
    Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM /
    CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302




May 18, 2010                                                                                                                                                                              10

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R com ru4-qfy2010-180510

  • 1. 4QFY2010 Result Update I Telecom May 18, 2010 Reliance Communications ACCUMULATE CMP Rs145 Performance Highlights Target Price Rs155 Reliance Communications’ (RCOM) 4QFY2010 performance failed to meet Investment Period 12 Months our expectations on the core operations front. Wireless revenue grew 1.7% qoq (down 9% yoy), which was lower than the industry average in the Stock Info quarter. The company has crossed the 100mn subscriber milestone during Sector Telecom the quarter. Global business grew by 2.3% qoq (7.8% yoy), whereas broadband segment sales declined by 3.5% qoq (3.9% yoy). Profit after tax, Market Cap (Rs cr) 29,928 however, grew by 10.1% sequentially (down 16% yoy), largely on account of Beta 1.2 higher interest earned (up 99% qoq). We recommend an Accumulate on the stock. 52 WK High / Low 359/140 Mediocre growth across businesses: RCOM recorded a growth of 1.7% qoq Avg. Daily Volume 22,47,928 in the Top-line during 4QFY2010 to Rs5,093cr, mainly due to a strong Face Value (Rs) 5 subscriber growth of 9.2% qoq to 102.4mn and total traffic growth of 5% qoq. The growth in the Minutes of Usage (MoU) was lower than the industry BSE Sensex 16,876 minute growth of ~10%, however it managed to restrict the decline in the Nifty 5,066 Revenue per Minute (RPM) at Rs0.44 (down by Rs0.01), which is commendable. Global business segment revenue grew by 2.3% qoq, led by a Reuters Code RLCM.BO 13.8% growth in the Long Distance minutes. However, Broadband revenues Bloomberg Code RCOM.IN declined 3.5% qoq, despite significant addition in the number of Access lines. RCOM recorded a contraction of 260bp qoq (decline of 400bp yoy) in its Shareholding Pattern (%) EBITDA Margin, mainly due to higher Network Operation Costs. However, higher interest earned resulted in a bottom-line growth of 10.1% qoq. Promoters 67.6 MF/Banks/Indian FIs 12.2 Outlook and Valuation: Going forward, we expect RCOM to post a 7% CAGR in its Top-line over FY2010-12E, while the Bottom-line is expected to record a FII/NRIs/OCBs 9.0 compounded de-growth of 12%. We have factored in a 21% CAGR in the Indian Public 11.2 mobile subscriber base over FY2010-12E, while also modeling for a 12% compounded fall in the RPM. We have valued the stock at Rs155 per share, Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr at 8.5x of its FY2012E earnings, and at a 40% discount to our target multiple Sensex 3.4 18.1 18.0 for Bharti (Historical discount during FY2008-10 of 30%). The higher discount to Bharti is justified in view of the latter’s superior operating performance R Com (13.4) (49.2) (70.8) (ARPU/RPM/MoU), higher ROE and lower leverage position. We recommend an Accumulate on the stock, with a Target Price of Rs155. Key Financials (Consolidated) Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Net Sales 22251 21496 22412 24592 % chg 18.2 (3.4) 4.3 9.7 Net Profit 6045 4777 3674 3698 % chg 46.4 (21.0) (23.1) 0.7 FDEPS (Rs) 28.0 22.1 17.0 17.1 EBITDA Margin (%) 38.7 34.0 31.5 30.0 P/E (x) 5.2 6.5 8.5 8.5 Rahul Jain P/BV (x) 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 345 RoE (%) 14.3 12.4 8.7 8.1 E-mail: Rahul.j@angeltrade.com RoCE (%) 6.9 5.5 4.9 4.7 Vibha Salvi EV/EBIDTA (x) 6.7 6.8 7.2 6.6 Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 329 ARPUs (Rs/user/month) 244 158 154 146 E-mail: vibhas.salvi@angeltrade.com Source: Company, Angel Research 1 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539
  • 2. Reliance Communications I 4QFY2010 Result Update Exhibit 1: 4QFY2010 Consolidated Financial Performance Y/E March (Rs cr) 4QFY10 4QFY09 % chg 3QFY10 % chg FY2010 FY2009 % chg (yoy) (qoq) Net Revenues 5,093 5,798 (12.2) 5,310 (4.1) 21,496 22,251 (3.4) Operating Expenditure 3,491 3,741 (6.7) 3,497 (0.2) 14,312 13,517 5.9 Operating Profit (EBITDA) 1,602 2,057 (22.1) 1,813 (11.6) 7,185 8,733 (17.7) Finance Charges (Net) (813) (494) (408) (1,822) (1,078) Depreciation & Amortisation 1,085 1,143 (5.1) 833 30.2 3,747 3,608 3.8 ESOP amortisation 1 (157) (100.9) 22 (93.4) 37 7 401.6 Income before Income Taxes 1,329 1,565 (15.1) 1,365 (2.6) 5,223 6,197 (15.7) Tax 192 49 296.1 200 (4.0) 445 (52) Minority Interest (83) 65 (227.4) 56 (247.4) 119 205 (41.9) Share of Associates - (2) 1 (100.0) 3 (2) Net Income 1,220 1,454 (16.1) 1,108 10.1 4,655 6,045 (23.0) Diluted EPS (Rs) 5.4 6.8 (19.4) 5.2 5.6 21.6 28.1 (22.9) EBITDA Margin (%) 31.5 35.5 34.1 33.4 39.3 Net Profit Margin (%) 23.9 25.1 20.9 21.7 27.2 Mobile ARPUs (Rs/user/month) 139.0 224.0 (37.9) 149.0 (6.7) 158.0 244.0 (35.2) Source: Company, Angel Research De-growth in Broadband and Global businesses drags the Top-line RCOM recorded a small growth of 1.7% qoq (decline of 9% yoy) in its wire line revenues, led by strong subscriber growth of 9.2% and traffic growth of 5% qoq. The RPM declined by Rs0.01 (2.2% qoq) to Rs0.44, which was lower compared to the industry average, since RCOM was one of the first operators to reduce tariffs through the launch of its ‘Simply Reliance’ plans. The MoU per subscriber declined by 3.6% qoq to 318 minutes. RCOM’s wireless market share reached to 17.7%, with a total subscriber count of 102mn. The Churn ratio expanded to 2.8% from 2% in 3QFY2010, highlighting the increased competitive intensity. Although the traffic growth was below the industry average, the company managed to restrict the fall in the RPM to a mere 2% qoq. We believe that the recent launch of its unlimited (monthly and daily cap applicable) plan, under the new ‘Simply Reliance’ plan would boost its traffic growth in the coming period. The company recorded a 2.3% qoq growth (7.8% yoy growth) in its Global business, mainly due to the NLD minutes’ traffic growth of 18% qoq, which was supported by a reduction in the call charges. ILD traffic, however, declined by 6% qoq. The Broadband Business revenues declined by 3.5% qoq (fall of 3.9% yoy), on account of a 5.5% qoq fall in the Average Revenue per line (ARPL) per month to Rs1,551. The company added a net 15,000 Access lines during the quarter, taking the total Access line count to 1.46mn. The intersegment revenue witnessed a 16% qoq growth, on account of an increase in NLD Traffic and on-net traffic. Exhibit 2: Segment-wise Revenue Break-up 4QFY10 4QFY09 3QFY10 % chg % chg Rs cr Rs cr Rs cr Yoy qoq Wireless 4,090 4,502 4,023 (9.1) 1.7 Global 2,028 1,880 1,982 7.8 2.3 Broadband 680 708 705 (3.9) (3.5) Others* 285 313 316 (10.0) Gross Revenues 7,082 7,403 7,025 (4.3) 0.8 Less: Inter-segment 1,989 1,605 1,715 24.0 16.0 Revenues Net Revenues 5,093 5,798 5,310 (12.2) (4.1) Note:* includes Reliance Big TV and network operating revenues May 18, 2010 2
  • 3. Reliance Communications I 4QFY2010 Result Update Margins decline on higher Network Expenses and Access Charges RCOM recorded a contraction of 260bp yoy (decline of 400bp qoq) in its EBITDA Margin, mainly due to higher Network Operation Costs, which spiked by 200bp qoq (up 650bp yoy). The access charges were also up 190bp qoq (up 120bp yoy), and SG&A expenses grew by 16.8% qoq; however, a reduction of 20bp qoq in staff costs restricted a further erosion in the margins during the quarter. EBIDTA per minute (EPM) declined by 7% or Rs0.01 at Rs0.13. The company’s cost per minute remained flat at Rs0.31, resulting in a decline in the margin spread. Going forward, we believe that the company would continue to face margin pressures on account of its recent plan launch, which offers free bundled minutes to R2R as well as to other service providers. This would cap the revenue realisation per subscriber, but would cause a variable rise in the operating cost (positively correlated to a growth in traffic). Higher Interest earned supports Bottom-line The company recorded a 99% growth in Interest earned during the quarter to Rs813cr, which arrested the impact of the decline in the operating margins. Depreciation costs grew by 30% qoq, as the company charged certain assets for impairment (one-time expense) during the quarter, which would normalise in the coming quarter at the 3QFY2010 run-rate. The tax rate remained flat at 14.5%, but the losses in subsidiaries (Minority Interest) stood at Rs83cr as against the profits of Rs56cr in 3QFY2010. The PAT for the quarter stood at Rs1,220cr, up 10.1% qoq (down 16.1% yoy). Going forward, the profitability would come under pressure as the increased leverage (capex of Rs3,000cr and 3G requirements) would dent the net interest earnings in the coming quarters. Exhibit 3: Wireless Business operating metrics % chg % chg 4QFY10 3QFY09 3QFY10 yoy qoq Gross revenues (Rs cr) 4,090 4,502 4,023 (9.1) 1.7 Mobile subscriber base (Mn) 102.4 72.7 93.8 40.9 9.2 Mobile ARPUs (Rs/user/month) 139 224 149 (37.9) (6.7) Total minutes of usage (Mn) 93,500 74,800 89,000 25.0 5.1 Revenues per minute (Rs) 0.44 0.60 0.45 (27.3) (3.2) MoUs per user per month 318 372 330 (14.5) (3.6) EBITDA (Rs cr) 1,182 1,663 1,254 (28.9) (5.8) EBITDA Margins (%) 28.9 36.9 31.2 (8.1) (2.3) EBITDA/minute (Rs) 0.13 0.22 0.14 (43.2) (10.4) EBIT (Rs cr) 761 902 848 (15.7) (10.3) EBIT Margins (%) 18.6 20.0 21.1 (1.4) (2.5) Source: Company, Angel Research, Margin change is in Bps Exhibit 4: Global Business operating metrics % chg % chg 4QFY10 3QFY09 3QFY10 yoy qoq Gross revenues (Rs cr) 2,028 1,880 1,982 7.8 2.3 Total minutes of usage (Mn) 18,742 11,073 16,466 69.3 13.8 Revenues per minute (Rs) 1.08 1.70 1.20 (36.3) (10.1) EBITDA (Rs cr) 356 503 419 (29.3) (15.2) EBITDA Margins (%) 17.5 26.7 21.2 (9.2) (3.6) EBITDA/minute (Rs) 0.19 0.45 0.25 (58.2) (25.5) EBIT (Rs cr) 132 286 181 (54.0) (27.1) EBIT Margins (%) 6.5 15.2 9.1 (8.7) (2.6) Source: Company, Angel Research, Margin change is in Bps May 18, 2010 3
  • 4. Reliance Communications I 4QFY2010 Result Update Exhibit 5: Broadband Business operating metrics % chg % chg 4QFY10 3QFY09 3QFY10 yoy qoq Gross revenues (Rs cr) 680 708 705 (3.9) (3.5) Access lines ('000) 1,469 1,385 1,455 6.1 1.0 ARPLs (Rs/line/month) 1,661 1,680 1,654 (1.1) 0.5 Buildings directly 1,029,327 929,600 1,018,732 10.7 1.0 connected EBITDA (Rs cr) 253 316 275 (20.1) (8.3) EBITDA Margins (%) 37.2 44.7 39.1 (16.8) (5.0) EBIT (Rs cr) 135 209 158 (35.3) (14.3) EBIT Margins (%) 19.9 29.5 22.4 (9.6) (2.5) Source: Company, Angel Research, Margin change is in Bps Exhibit 6: RCOM v/s Peers - Mobility Business metrics 4QFY10 3QFY09 3QFY10 Mobile subscriber base (Mn) Bharti Airtel 127.6 93.9 118.9 RCOM 102.4 72.7 93.8 Idea 63.8 38.9 52.3 % Inc/Dec over Bharti (19.7) (22.6) (21.1) % Inc/Dec over Idea 60.5 86.8 79.3 Wireless/Mobile Business Revenues (Rs cr) Bharti Airtel 8,198 8,222 7,962 RCOM 4,090 4,502 4,023 Idea 3,312 2,936 3,123 % Inc/Dec over Bharti (50.1) (45.2) (49.5) % Inc/Dec over Idea 23.5 53.3 28.8 Wireless/Mobile Business ARPUs (Rs/user/month) Bharti Airtel 220 305 230 RCOM 139 224 149 Idea 185 255 200 % Inc/Dec over Bharti (36.8) (26.6) (35.2) % Inc/Dec over Idea (24.9) (12.2) (25.5) Wireless/Mobile Business total MoUs (Mn minutes) Bharti Airtel 172,797 130,669 153,241 RCOM 93,500 74,800 89,000 Idea 68,275 44,224 57,841 % Inc/Dec over Bharti (45.9) (42.8) (41.9) % Inc/Dec over Idea 36.9 69.1 53.9 Wireless/Mobile Business MoUs (Minutes/customer/month) Bharti Airtel 468 485 446 RCOM 318 372 330 Idea 398 402 389 % Inc/Dec over Bharti (32.1) (23.3) (26.0) % Inc/Dec over Idea (20.1) (7.5) (15.2) Wireless/Mobile Business RPMs (Rs) Bharti Airtel 0.47 0.63 0.52 RCOM 0.44 0.60 0.45 Idea 0.47 0.63 0.51 % Inc/Dec over Bharti (7.8) (4.4) (13.0) % Inc/Dec over Idea (6.9) (4.5) (11.4) Source: Company, Angel Research May 18, 2010 4
  • 5. Reliance Communications I 4QFY2010 Result Update Outlook and Valuation Going forward, we expect the recurring revenues of the Global business to show an increasing trend, led by traffic growth in the NLD and ILD voice businesses. In the Wireless segment, the company has already incurred huge investments in the past, which includes the capex on the GSM network setup in the last one year, and it is likely to spend an estimated amount in upward of over $2bn for the 3G spectrum in FY2011E. The increased capex requirement would further strain the interest burden in FY2012E. Wireless revenues are likely to grow at a modest rate of about 4%, as the growth in the traffic would be curbed by lower per minute realisations. RCOM’s passive infrastructure sharing agreement with Etisalat DB is also expected to book revenues in FY2011E, which is expected to improve Reliance Infratel’s revenues, tenancy ratio and profitability, going forward. The company has 50,000 towers, with a tenancy ratio of ~1.75x (best in the industry). The company has been sharing infrastructure with all the major domestic as well as new players. The company’s plans regarding Reliance Infratel’s IPO listing are under consideration, through which the company plans to dilute a 10% stake in Reliance Infratel. However, taking cognisance of the current capital market dynamics, the company intends to wait for the right time to take this step. Going forward, we expect RCOM to post a 7% CAGR in its Top-line over FY2010- 12E, while the Bottom-line is expected to record a compounded de-growth of 12%. We have factored in a 21% CAGR in the mobile subscriber base over FY2010-12E, while also modeling for a 12% compounded fall in the RPM. At the CMP, the stock is trading at a P/E of 8x on its FY2012E EPS, and an EV/EBITDA of 6.6x its FY2012E EBITDA. Although the valuations appear attractive, we believe that the likely headwinds in terms of intense price war, mobile number portability, and costly spectrum charges would hamper profitability, while increasing the capital intensity in the sector. Hence, in view of the increased uncertainty, we are downgrading our earnings estimates for FY2011E and FY2012E. We have valued the stock at Rs155 per share, at 8.5x of its FY2012E earnings, and at a 40% discount to our target multiple for Bharti (Historical discount during FY2008-10 of 30%). The higher discount to Bharti is justified in view of the latter’s superior operating performance (ARPU/RPM/MoU), higher ROE and lower leverage position. We recommend an Accumulate on the stock, with a Target Price of Rs155. Exhibit 7: One year forward P/E Band 1000 900 800 700 Share Price (Rs) 600 500 28x 400 22x 300 16x 200 100 10x 0 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Source: Company, Angel Research May 18, 2010 5
  • 6. Reliance Communications I 4QFY2010 Result Update Exhibit 8: Premium/Discount in RCOM P/E v/s Bharti Airtel P/E 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 (%) (10) (20) (30) (40) (50) (60) Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Oct-06 Feb-07 Oct-07 Feb-08 Oct-08 Feb-09 Oct-09 Feb-10 Premium/Discount to Bharti Airtel Avg. Historical Discount Source: Company, Angel Research May 18, 2010 6
  • 7. Reliance Communications I 4QFY2010 Result Update Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated) (Rs cr) Y/E March FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Gross sales 22,665 26,988 28,424 29,635 32,517 Less: Inter-segment revenues 3,838 4,737 6,928 7,223 7,926 Net Sales 18,827 22,251 21,496 22,412 24,592 Other operating income - - - - - Total operating income 18,827 22,251 21,496 22,412 24,592 % chg 32.0 18.2 (3.4) 4.3 9.7 Total Expenditure 10,853 13,644 14,189 15,352 17,214 Cost of Services 6,259 7,985 9,566 10,085 11,312 SGA 3,406 3,986 3,076 3,698 4,181 Personnel 1,188 1,673 1,548 1,569 1,721 Other - - - - - EBITDA 7,975 8,607 7,307 7,060 7,378 % chg 44.6 7.9 (15.1) (3.4) 4.5 (% of Net Sales) 42.4 38.7 34.0 31.5 30.0 Depreciation& Amortisation 2,805 3,608 3,747 3,818 4,121 EBIT 5,170 4,999 3,560 3,242 3,257 % chg 69.5 (3.3) (28.8) (9.0) 0.5 (% of Net Sales) 27.5 22.5 16.6 14.5 13.2 Interest & other Charges (400) (507) (1,186) (500) (500) Other Income 240 698 636 672 738 (% of PBT) 4.1 11.2 11.8 15.2 16.4 Share in profit of Associates - - - - - Recurring PBT 5,810 6,204 5,383 4,414 4,495 % chg 78.5 6.8 (13.2) (18.0) 1.8 Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) (1,267) 7 37 - - PBT (reported) 7,076 6,197 5,345 4,414 4,495 Tax 284 (52) 445 618 674 (% of PBT) 4.0 (0.8) 8.3 14.0 15.0 PAT (reported) 6,793 6,249 4,900 3,796 3,821 Add: Share of earnings of (1.5) 1.6 (3.2) (3.2) (3.2) associate Less: Minority interest (MI) 1,390.1 205.2 119.3 119.3 119.3 Prior period items - - - - - PAT after MI (reported) 5,401 6,045 4,777 3,674 3,698 ADJ. PAT 4,135 6,052 4,815 3,674 3,698 % chg 29.3 46.4 (20.4) (23.7) 0.7 (% of Net Sales) 28.7 27.2 22.2 16.4 15.0 Basic EPS (Rs) 26.2 29.3 23.1 17.8 17.9 Fully Diluted EPS (Rs) 25.0 28.0 22.1 17.0 17.1 % chg 70.5 11.9 (21.0) (23.1) 0.7 May 18, 2010 7
  • 8. Reliance Communications I 4QFY2010 Result Update Balance Sheet (Consolidated) (Rs cr) Y/E March FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 Preference Capital - - - - - Reserves& Surplus 27,994 41,248 37,751 41,209 44,691 Shareholders Funds 29,026 42,280 38,783 42,241 45,723 Minority Interest 2,431 655 747 747 747 Total Loans 25,822 39,162 24,747 22,882 22,882 Deferred Tax Liability 103 28 - - - Total Liabilities 57,382 82,126 64,277 65,870 69,352 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block 46,339 75,510 73,443 83,528 90,906 Less: Acc. Depreciation 8,956 14,114 19,077 22,895 27,015 Net Block 37,383 61,396 54,366 60,633 63,890 Capital Work-in-Progress 14,930 11,310 11,952 11,952 11,952 Goodwill 3,565 5,222 5,222 5,222 5,222 Investments 11,000 9,566 120 120 120 Current Assets 10,582 14,714 16,415 14,043 16,917 Cash 878 1,683 4,859 1,984 4,298 Loans & Advances 4,269 6,756 5,483 5,983 5,983 Other 5,434 6,276 6,074 6,076 6,636 Current liabilities 20,078 20,081 23,798 26,099 28,748 Net Current Assets (9,496) (5,367) (7,382) (12,056) (11,831) Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - Total Assets 57,382 82,126 64,277 65,870 69,352 Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated) (Rs cr) Y/E March FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Profit before tax 7,076 6,197 5,345 4,414 4,495 Depreciation 2,805 3,608 3,747 3,818 4,121 Change in Working Capital (3,584) (2,025) 5,191 1,799 2,089 Less: Other income (1,635) (879) 636 672 738 Direct taxes paid (216) (393) 445 618 674 Cash Flow from Operations 4,447 6,508 13,202 8,741 9,292 (Inc)./ Dec in Fixed Assets (17,393) (12,243) (3,796) (10,085) (7,378) (Inc)./ Dec. in Investments (2,979) 1,557 9,446 - - (Inc)./ Dec. in loans and advances - - - - - Other income 776 678 636 672 738 Cash Flow from Investing (19,595) (10,008) 6,285 (9,413) (6,640) Issue of Equity - - - - - Inc./(Dec.) in loans 10,075 7,508 (14,415) (1,865) - Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (118) (179) (205) (215) (216) Others (1,130) (3,024) (1,692) (122) (122) Cash Flow from Financing 8,826 4,305 (16,312) (2,203) (339) Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (6,322) 805 3,175 (2,874) 2,314 Opening Cash balances 7,201 878 1,683 4,859 1,984 Closing Cash balances 878 1,683 4,859 1,984 4,298 May 18, 2010 8
  • 9. Reliance Communications I 4QFY2010 Result Update Key Ratios Y/E March FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) 5.8 5.2 6.5 8.5 8.5 P/CEPS 3.6 3.1 3.5 4.0 3.8 P/BV 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 Dividend yield (%) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 EV/Sales 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.0 EV/EBITDA 5.5 6.7 6.8 7.2 6.6 EV / Total Assets 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 Per Share Data (Rs) EPS (Basic) 26.2 29.3 23.1 17.8 17.9 EPS (fully diluted) 25.0 28.0 22.1 17.0 17.1 Cash EPS 39.8 46.8 41.3 36.3 37.9 DPS 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 Book Value 141 205 188 205 222 Dupont Analysis EBIT margin 28.7 25.6 19.5 17.5 16.2 Tax retention ratio 96.0 100.8 91.7 86.0 85.0 Asset turnover (x) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 ROIC (Post-tax) 8.0 6.5 4.8 3.9 3.7 Cost of Debt (Post Tax) (0.4) (0.4) (0.9) (0.5) (0.5) Leverage (x) 1.4 1.8 1.4 1.0 0.9 Operating ROE 19.5 18.6 12.7 8.2 7.5 Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) 11.1 6.9 5.5 4.9 4.7 Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 11.8 8.7 6.2 6.5 6.4 ROE 14.2 14.3 12.4 8.7 8.1 Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Inventory / Sales (days) 8.5 7.5 9.0 8.2 7.9 Receivables (days) 43.6 53.2 60.2 51.6 49.2 Payables (days) 166.4 73.9 71.0 70.2 71.2 Working capital cycle (ex-cash) (days) (114.4) (13.2) (1.8) (10.4) (14.1) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 Net debt to EBITDA 1.7 3.2 2.7 2.9 2.5 Interest Coverage (EBIT / Interest) - - - - - May 18, 2010 9
  • 10. Reliance Communications I 4QFY2010 Result Update Research Team Tel: 022-4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com DISCLAIMER This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Securities Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, and are for general guidance only. Angel Securities Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Securities Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Securities Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Securities Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Disclosure of Interest Statement Reliance Communication 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock Yes 3. Angel and its Group companies’ Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel and its Group companies. Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059. Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800 Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946 Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302 May 18, 2010 10