Since 1986 a global debate has raged on copper or fibre in the local loop, and despite all the evidence the copper heads have pursued a path of survival at any cost with outrageous claims of what they can deliver. With claims of ‘up-to’ download speeds and homes passed (not connected), and crosstalk induced asymmetry they have never delivered what was said on the tin. And worst, with great temerity they insist on dictating to customers as to the bandwidth they really need. We have now (probably) reached a peak of the lunacy with FTTCabinet/Kerb and pole top G.Fast developers claiming speeds of 1,000Mbit/s delivered. They can no more deliver such speeds than 10Mbit/s unless it is over impractically short spans. You can deliver 10Gbit/s over 5m of twisted pair or 100Gbit/s over 1m, but it aint of much practical use. In contrast optical fibre can deliver 1, 10, 100 Gbit/s over 100km using <10% of the energy demanded by copper. So in November 2015 I attended my 100th conference/seminar/meeting on the topic to explain that the world is now bifurcating into those with Gbit/s fibre in the local loop and those who are sticking with copper. City and community wide FTTH is rolling out in a frenzy of frustration with the incumbent telco copperheads who continue their futile quest to squeeze the last micro-gram out of their 150 year old technologies. Only fibre is green, only fibre is future proof, only fibre is economic, and only fibre can support future business, Cloud Computing, The IoT, Smart Cities, and the 3,4,5G infill needed into the future. It is all obvious, but here we go again! Will the UK be a world leader or laggard, in the first division, or at the back of the pack? There is a lot at stake. The first to roll out FTTH was BY in 1990, but government ignorance saw the program closed down and since then the GDP has suffered with lost business and the emigration of young start ups. But all that is insignificant compared with what is to come! The easiest and most sensible route out of the ‘gotcha’ is to let the companies do as they wish, but empower towns and cities to install dark fibre nets, and to provide assistive funding to villages and communities to DIY Fibre. This is happening by default, but it needs to be accelerated by a modest capital investment.

1. F i b r e B R O A D B A N D f u t u r es
T h e a r t o f t h e p o s s i b l e / n e c e s s a r y
P e t e r C o c h r a n e
cochrane.org.uk
ca-global.org
Green
Secure
Available
Adaptable
Future Proof
People Sparse
Fixed & Mobile
People & Things
Transitory & Stable
Resilient & Reliable

2. N E T F R I C T I O N
C a p a c i t y a n d c o n n e c t i v i t y
d e f i n e n e t w o r k l o s s e s t h a t
u l t i m a t e l y i m p a c t t h e G D P
Poor infrastructure ALWAYS signifies a poor economy

3. NET TRAFFIC Growth
2000 - 2015
Exponential and no sign of slowing - x 2 < 18 months
>99% of global traffic
transported by optical
fibre - the only medium
capable…
..international, national,
regional, local networks

4. <5% of net traffic is by
3 and 4G connection -
wifi ~ 50%, LAN ~ 45%
Voice
Data
Mobile Communication PB/(Month-Mese)
M O B I L E
2000 - 2015
More mobile (5G) can
only be realised through
more optical fibre in
the local loop….
…open 3,4,5G and wifi
at the end of every FTTP
circuit is essential for the
IoT and full mobility…

5. A P P D OW N L O A DS - B i l l i o n s

6. UK IS AN EU LEADER
UK

7. UK IS NOT A GLOBAL LEADER
“UK a long way south”

8. UK IS NOT A GLOBAL LEADER
UK
And in the middle of the EU pack!

9. ~ 46 % of global
economic output ($32.3T) can benefit from
the Industrial Internet
Why is the net Important ?
F u t u r e p r o s p e r i t y w i l l b e d e f i n e d b y b a n d w i d t h
Education
Awareness
Healthcare
Science
Engineering
Technology
Creativity
Invention
Sharing
Design
Production
Dleivery
Logistics
Support
After Care
Green
+++++
++++++

10. ~ 46 % of global
economic output ($32.3T) can benefit from
the Industrial Internet
Why is the net Important ?
F u t u r e p r o s p e r i t y w i l l b e d e f i n e d b y b a n d w i d t h
Education
Awareness
Healthcare
Science
Engineering
Technology
Creativity
Invention
Sharing
Design
Production
Dleivery
Logistics
Support
After Care
Green
+++++
++++++
After investing in a visionary Gbit/s network, the City of Chattanooga has
transformed into a regional center for technology and innovation.
It is attracting entrepreneurs and technologists from around the country and
boasts new business incubators and state-of-the-art public facilities.
Chattanooga has gone from hosting zero venture capital to at least five
organized funds with investable capital.

11. exponential RISE
Bandwidth Demand outstrips supply
Netcos continue to ask the same dumb
questions - why would anyone want :-
• 64kbit/s
• 256kbit/s
• 1Mbit/s
• 10Mbit/s
• 100Mbit/s
• 1000Mbit/s
• 10,000Mbit/s
...and what would they use it for ?
CustomerDemand
Available
BroadBand

12. So what of WIRELESS
You cannot defeat the laws of physics
More towers (>>10x) are unacceptable
Universal coverage needs something new
3, 4, 5G cannot supply by a BIG margin
<5% of net traffic is by 3 and 4G
connection - wifi ~ 50%, LAN ~ 45%
…open 3,4,5G and wifi at the end of every FTTP
circuit is essential for the IoT and full mobility…

13. Symmetric
Asymmetric
l e a d e r s & L a g g a r ds
‘UpTo’ and ‘Homes Passed’
culture predominates
‘Actually Delivered’ and
‘Homes Connected’ are
predominant…
W h e r e a r e t h e w o r l d l e a d e r s h e a d i n g

14. H E g e ts i t !
A n d h a s a n a t i o n a l p l a n
T h e f u n d i n g o f c i t i e s a n d
c o m m u n i t i e s t o D I Y F T T H /
P / B @ 1 G b i t / s t o a t t r a c t
n e w b u s i n e s s a n d n e w
s t a r t s t o r e j u v i n a t e
t h e e c o n o m i e s o f
f a i l e d a r e a s

15. o b a m a o n t h e i n t e r N E T
S e e s E U c u l t u r e a s i n n o v a t i o n a n d c h a n g e a v e r s e
"Our companies have created it, expanded it, perfected it
in ways that they (Europe) can’t compete,"

16. t h e u s a v i e w
Result of and academic analysis
27 October 2015
Bhaskar Chakravorti
and
Ravi Shankar Chaturvedi
Europe has a digital crisis that has severe consequences for their global
competitiveness.
In the ‘Stand Out Category’ of the Global Digital Evolution Index…..
…only Switzerland, Ireland, and Estonia, made it!
continent is in the midst of a “digital recession.”
Do we really believe that the UK will
become a world leader from the back
of the pack ??

17. If you own an old telephone
network every new opportunity
looks like an old network
upgrade with bigger and better
routers…time after time after
time…
c o p p e r h e a d s
Winning with 150 year old technology

18. copper reality
W h a t yo u g e t i s n’t t h e p ro m i s e
As more users load the same cable
it get’s progressive worse whilst
still satisfying the ‘Up To’ Promise
This situation is not going to improve
or get any better unless we manage
to change the laws of physics!
D o w n l o a d O n l y
U p l o a d ~ 1 0 %

19. Every £1Bn spent
on the past…
Sees us £2Bn
further away
from the future !
U K I nvest m e nt

20. Fault
Prone
Cloud
Killing
E n e rgy
h u n gry
Super
Slo
w
50% of all
are due
to me !
Faults
Future
Limiting
Reverse
gear
Loved by vandals
Big and ugly
Hated by councils
Anti-GreenUnsustainable

21. IM
IoT
TXT
B2B
C2B
C2C
eMail
TeleCare
eTrading
Telephony
TeleSurgery
TeleTraining
TeleMedicine
Tele Education
TeleMaintenance
Audio Conferencing
Collaborative Supply
Collaborative Design
Collaborative Games
Collaborative Working
Collaborative Farming
Collaborative Research
Collaborative Production
Broadcast TV
Broadcast Radio
Video on Demand
Audio on Demand
Music on demand
TeleInspection
TeleControl
????
Symmetric
An initial ‘Straw Man’ listing
Peter Cochrane 1/9/15
Collaborative Computing
Collaborative Manufacture
3D Design & Manufacture
Sustainable Supply Chains
Sustainable Production
Sustainable Recycling
Distributed Intelligence
Distributed Computing
Video Conferencing
Social Networking
Virtual Computing
Cloud Computing
Sensor Networks
Logistics Control
Home Working
Mobile Futures
Virtual Storage
Photo Albums
Video Albums
Virtual Office
Smart Cities
????
21C network services
Asymmetric
IM & TXT et al are stuck in a bandwidth limiting time warp
and so are many other services unable to upgraded!
The love of copper lost the UK a £3Bn computer gaming
industry (+++) to SEA due to the lack of bandwidth and
connectivity
Copper cables suffer from crosstalk and high attenuation
that renders the very expensive and asymmetric

22. •74% of digital companies operate outside of London
•Digital job growth to outperform all other categories by 2020
•1.46M people (7.5%) of workforce employed in the digital industries
•Highest rates of digital employment: London, Bristol & Bath, Reading, Manchester
•Highest Average Co Turnover: Manchester, Belfast, Sheffield, London and South Wales
•Highest digital Co density: Brighton, Hove, London, Reading, Edinburgh, Cambridge
•Fastest growth: Liverpool, London, Belfast, Manchester, Bournemouth, Brighton, Hove,
South Wales, Bristol, Bath
UK DIGITAL ECONOMY
Extremely diverse, distributed and in dire need

23. IoT
Smart Cities
Cloud Computing
Leading Edge Start Ups
Sustainable Communities
Competitive Economy
Enabled Workforce
Improved Mobility
Tele-education
Telemedicine
N O F T T P C A S U A LT I ES
Industry and Institutions Frozen out of markets
Emigration of the talented and capable
GDP limited and progressively declining

24. f a r m e r s D I Y
J F D I a n d C a n D o C u l t u r e
DIY Community Broadband Wins
FTTP aint rocket science >500 miles laid and growing!

25. J e r s e y t e l c o
transformation
•1Gbit/s bi-directional
•100% ducted - no overhead
•WiFi + 3G in every terminal
•Future proof and eco friendly
•Reduced Opex, Capex, Fault rates
•Profitability improved within 12 months
•Self funded + copper, lead, plastic recovery
•EU leading commercial community
•Island attracting new business
•FTTH/O/P - No Copper No Cabinets

26. The world leaders are mandating and building
FTTH Gbit/s networks for today and into the
future - 1Gbit/s is the base rate/starting point
T I M E TO C O N S I D E R A N D T H I N K
Management by BS & misinformation is dangerous, damaging, big negative
The world laggards are hanging onto their 150
year old copper platforms and misguidedly
building unreliable and non-ecological
solutions that can never deliver on
yesterdays demand let alone todays
or that of the near future

27. A Tyranny of Propaganda
Progressively Displacing Evidence and Wisdom
T I M E TO C O N S I D E R A N D T H I N K
If incumbents dominate a market then all competition and innovation ceases
It might work in PR and politics
but in
technology and economics
it is fatal !!

28. A Tyranny of TruthTo Displace a Warped Market Model
T I M E TO C O N S I D E R A N D T H I N K
The UK needs a real competitive landscape with freedom to be different
Let incumbents and commercial companies do their own thing
and choose their own course
Assist/fund communities to install the own
FTTH systems
Support towns and cities to do their own
thing and install dark networks

29. Progressively Displacing Evidence and Wisdom
Management by BS & misinformation is dangerous, damaging, big negative
U K TO B E F ROZ E N O UT ?
No Smart Cities
No eHealthCare
No TeleEducation
No Cloud Computing
Ineffective IoT Systems
Reduced Market Access
Sidelined Service Economy
Crippled Mobility/Flexibility
Greater Friction/Inefficiency
Disadvantage Manufacturing
Loss of Existing Leadership Positions
++++
Bifurcating world - leaders/laggards - fibre/copper
Laggards Limited (Copper)
Leaders Unlimited (Fibre)
Green
Adaptive
Pace Setting
Future Proof
Top Economies
Can Do Anything
Prime Innovators
Leading Creators
Market Dominating

30. The UK debate has lasted a
very long time... and we are
still not on the starting grid….
Thank You
cochrane.org.uk
ca-global.org