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Science and Engineering Out of The Box

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Summary
There has never been a time in the history of our species that has seen such innovation and rapid progress; and we have never been so confounded by the world we have realized! For sure, we have crossed the Rubicon from a linear past to a non-linear future and find ourselves lacking many of the basic tools we need to fully address the major problems confronting us.
In such an environment we have to prepared to be ‘unreasonable’, to challenge established wisdom, conventions and practices. So in this session, I present three challenging cases that do just that:

1) Wireless Spectrum: It is infinite and there is no bandwidth crisis!

2) Cyber Security: We need auto-immune systems aka biology

3) Information War: The biggest threat to the survival of our species

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Science and Engineering Out of The Box

  1. 1. S c i e n c e a n d E n g i n e e r i n g o ut o f t h e BOX Peter Cochrane Prof Peter Cochrane OBE www.petercochrane.com
  2. 2. 601 × 261601 × 261 M u lt i - B Ox u n i v e r s e Working inside the bounds of the status quo ensures almost certain failure! “We cannot solve problems with the same thinking that created them”
  3. 3. 601 × 261 A M u lt i - B O X W o r l d Solutions now tend to be multi-disciplinary Sitting in one box: looking into the originating framework is unlikely to see a novel solution when we have most likely exhausted all the options - and all the degrees of freedom! The world of Boil, Hook,Newton et al is long gone and so has all the simplicity We have realised that our world & universe are complex
  4. 4. G I A N T L E A P s We should not fear being wrong ! Thermodynamics & Information Theory tells us that we will never understand this with this… BUT it took many years for those engaged in ‘brain studies’ to work through a lot of empiricism before they admitted defeat! …a team of these is often an insignificant increase in the processing power wrt the scale of problems we can now face! LOOking beyond our discipline OR box is now ever more necessary
  5. 5. G I A N T L E A P s We should embrace the new - fast ! A new and different assistant/team member maturing fast Potentially the biggest AI/Thinking Machine ever…if we can get it to work reliably !QC
  6. 6. https://www.google.com/url? sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwi1p_qzqMnkAhVGcBQKHQ4fDBo ratioscientiae.weebly.com%2Fratio-scientiae-blog%2Fdefending-established-sci man&psig=AOvVaw3ys9vDQSCOEkjuGaUdF6Jj&ust=15683099
  7. 7. https://www.google.com/url? sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwi1p_qzqMnkAhVGcBQKHQ4fDBo ratioscientiae.weebly.com%2Fratio-scientiae-blog%2Fdefending-established-sci man&psig=AOvVaw3ys9vDQSCOEkjuGaUdF6Jj&ust=15683099 I have been unreasonable all my life This does not IMPLY unpleasant or obstructive
  8. 8. S i n g l e i ss u e t h i n k i n g May be OK(?) for a simple world but dangerous in a complex one Complexity demands we take a wide angle view!
  9. 9. A c l ea r a n d p r es e nt t h r eat We can see it and we have lots of data, but no accurate models “ R e v e r s i n g b a c k down the CO2 curve of pollution will not see a return to our o r i g i n a l c l i m a t i c starting point…we will arrive at a new point of stability… and we don’t know where and what that might be”
  10. 10. A c l ea r a n d p r es e nt t h r eat We can see it and we have lots of data, but no accurate models “ R e v e r s i n g b a c k down the CO2 curve of pollution will not see a return to our o r i g i n a l c l i m a t i c starting point…we will arrive at a new point of stability… and we don’t know where and what that might be” A massive ice melt and ocean warming has been triggered Tree planting to compansate for amazon logging will impact too
  11. 11. C H O OS I N G S i m p l e Simple decisions require little or no thinking
  12. 12. Technology Ecology d e p e n d e n cy J I GS AW Economics Society Industry Care Markets Trade Education Policing Defence Commerce Security Logistics Finance Government Companies W e h a v e n o m o d e l o r u n d e r s t a n d i n g “Sometimes we might observe or infer some limited relationships along with typical characteristics” “We have exceeded the bounds of our Math Frameworks and computer modelling is the only tool we have, but it is not enough” Law & Order Defence Education Health Institutions Make a change to any one element and the w h o l e f e e l s t h e impact - later!
  13. 13. Technology Ecology d e p e n d e n cy J I GS AW Economics Society Industry Care Markets Trade Education Policing Defence Commerce Security Logistics Finance Government Companies W e h a v e n o m o d e l o r u n d e r s t a n d i n g “Sometimes we might observe or infer some limited relationships along with typical characteristics” “We have exceeded the bounds of our Math Frameworks and computer modelling is the only tool we have, but it is not enough” Law & Order Defence Education Health Institutions Make a change to any one element and the w h o l e f e e l s t h e impact - later! Complex Chaotic Stochasic and fully interdependent latency tends to afford The illusion of some success
  14. 14. BIO-TECH nano-TECH AIRoboticsMulti-Disciplinary hot spot for the 21C New materials New industries New processes New capabilitiess Lower energy Lower waste Less friction I 4 . 0 + I o T + + + P r o l o g u e I n c o n t e x t : S e t t i n g t h e S c e n e a n d E x p e c t a t i o n
  15. 15. BIO-TECH nano-TECH AIRoboticsMulti-Disciplinary hot spot for the 21C New materials New industries New processes New capabilitiess Lower energy Lower waste Less friction I 4 . 0 + I o T + + + P r o l o g u e I n c o n t e x t : S e t t i n g t h e S c e n e a n d E x p e c t a t i o n p o lis h in g a ll o u r o ld in d u s t r ies is n o t en o u g h w e n eed m u c h m o r e
  16. 16. IoT 3G 4G 5G Blue Tooth WiFi GSM EGSM LTE Mesh-Nets ZigBee UNBLoRa RPMA BLE UNB UWB W-P Manufacture R&D BIO- nano AIRobotics BIGger Picture C r e a t i n g s u s t a i n a b l e f u t u r e s IoT = The future n e r v o u s s y s t e m o f t h e I o T a n d t h e E c o s p h e r e f o r h u m a n s a n d t h e p l a n e t
  17. 17. IoT 3G 4G 5G Blue Tooth WiFi GSM EGSM LTE Mesh-Nets ZigBee UNBLoRa RPMA BLE UNB UWB W-P Manufacture R&D BIO- nano AIRobotics BIGger Picture C r e a t i n g s u s t a i n a b l e f u t u r e s IoT = The future n e r v o u s s y s t e m o f t h e I o T a n d t h e E c o s p h e r e f o r h u m a n s a n d t h e p l a n e tIoT set to become dominant comms connect data and intelligence domain
  18. 18. W h o D a r es ? T h i n k i n g / B e i n g D i f f e r e n t ! “Bandwidth is free” “Distance is irrelevant” “We cannot charge for time” “The IoT needs an auto-immune system” “False information & truth denial” Telecoms 1982: Cyber Security 1998: ThreatScape 2008: The Future: “The rise and rise of ignorance” A very small sample of my quotes that span a lifetime in science, engineering and technology
  19. 19. A x i o m at i c 1 9 8 2 ? Bandwidth is free Distance is irrelevant We cannot charge for time Optical fibre changed everything !
  20. 20. A x i o m at i c 1 9 8 2 ? Bandwidth is free Distance is irrelevant We cannot charge for time Optical fibre changed everything ! PONS were an obvious bad choice based on old costing and old thinking
  21. 21. A x i o m at i c 1 9 8 2 ? Optical fibre far more economic, reliable, and 1,000,000 s fold more bandwidth…. Fibre fed cells would devastate this world wireless and create an entirely new one!
  22. 22. GENESIS Fork lift radio - analogue - long distances - lots of power CW, AM, FM, SSB+++ P2P Fixed, Broadcast+++ LW, MW, SW, VHF, UHF+++ Terrestrial, Maritime, Airborne+++ Fixed and mobile broadcast radio & TV receivers dominate followed by simplex voice transceivers
  23. 23. Big cells and n x1000s of towers MOBILE ~10Bn live devices on 3/4G connected to a global net of duplex voice & data comms • Digital modes only • Personal mixed use and traffic • Static base stations dominate • Terrestrial concentration • Large cells <20km
  24. 24. slow forward Small cells and Nx1000s of masts • Exponential traffic growth • Concentrated communities • Death of the fixed line phone • Users demand more bandwidth • Cells <1km
  25. 25. Now 2 DIY WiFi P l u g a n d p l a y n o e x p e r t i s e re q u i re d !
  26. 26. Now 2 DIY WiFi P l u g a n d p l a y n o e x p e r t i s e re q u i re d ! WiFi ~ 55% Copper/FTTP ~ 45% 3 + 5G ~5% Internet Traffic
  27. 27. Observations It is a miracle it all works Protocols very inefficient We avoid interference by dynamic juggling! The spectrum shortage is an illusion We seldom use more than 20% of the available space 5G unlikely to be a big player It cannot fully service the IoT We need more than incrementalism More bands, channels, modulation and coding schemes are not enough
  28. 28. Does everything, but badly THE BIG FIX ? 5g • Replaces optical fibre • Outguns 3 & 4G • Gbit/s everywhere • Will dominate the IoT • +++++ • Cooks a chicken • Improves your sex life….
  29. 29. n e w d i r e c t i o n S From connected people to connected things People ~10Bns Traffic ~1 Bn Goods ~100Bns Components ~1 Tn IoT
  30. 30. Device to PRODUCT Monitoring the in:out and effect…
  31. 31. Ship to shore Container to Ship H I D D E N V A L U E In every container operation globally BIG DATA = Container, schedule/location ? Small DATA = Status of container contents ?
  32. 32. 3,4,5G nets cannot support the demands of future traffic and logistic networks… but vehicle to vehicle systems can…by providing the most efficient and relevant linking of users reporting their status and sharing local/pertinent information Intelligent too ? Nets and Clouds without infrastructure
  33. 33. Broadcasting Malware Responding with updated protection Wider Network Updated Latest Solution Update Dynamic isolation of infected devices and components leading to repair Auto-immunity A mix of clean and infected For more goto UCISA Conference Birmingham May 2018
  34. 34. Auto-immunity Mirrors biological forebears Applied everywhere 24 x 7 ICs ISPs WiFi Hubs LANs Cards Traffic Servers Circuits Devices Internet Networks Organisations Companies Platforms Groups People Mobile Fixed For more goto UCISA Conference Birmingham May 2018
  35. 35. N e w M o d e s More things linking off net than on
  36. 36. N e w M o d e s More things linking off net than on Most THINGS will never connect to the internet THINGS will want to network and connect with other THINGS The IoT is entirely evolutionary and not just revolutionary New sporadic networks and associations will occur Huh !!
  37. 37. E n e r g y l i m i t a t i o n S We cannot realise such a future using our current approach Internet and connected devices ~ 10% of all energy generated What would 50, 250 or 1000Bn IoT devices demand ? We have to get down from mW to µW, nW and pW This demands ‘simplicity’ of processing and communications
  38. 38. C o n t i n u e t W e a k i n g ? This heritage/thinking cannot possible get us there
  39. 39. The Illusion of scarcity Why do we do this - it is largely legacy thinking
  40. 40. The Illusion of scarcity Why do we do this - it is largely legacy thinking Actually the spectrum is m ostly unused!
  41. 41. A dense London location ~50k WiFi nodes within a 1km radius of Liverpool St Very low RF Signal occupancy typical of most modern cities & rural locations
  42. 42. adopting reverse gear? Status Quo New Track ? Analogue pretending to be digital High energy & complex Pure digital Low energy & simple Conserving bandwidth for medium /long distance mobile communication Wasting bandwidth for ultra-short IoT distances
  43. 43. OpportunitY Space High loss is a short distance/reuse +++ God Given Spatial Filters Status Quo Leave well alone New Territory and new opportunities Continues untouched All modulation schemes from the past +new New modulation schemes & modes including hyper Direct Sequence Spread Spectrum
  44. 44. The Illusion of scarcity Why do we do this - it is largely legacy thinking far too complex & expensive Unfit for the IoT purpose - especially at 30 - 300 GHz
  45. 45. N e w O p p o rt u n i t i es High loss ideal for short distance/reuse +++ Direct Sequence Spread Spectrum way beyond UWB HYPER Direct Sequence Spread Spectrum
  46. 46. S/N dB BW Hz Duration T seconds Volumetric representation of S/N, BW and Time Claude Shannon 1945/46 I = B.T log2(1 + k.S/N) I ~ B.T.K.S/NdB vv Back to basics k.S/N >> 1 With a little engineering licence
  47. 47. The same information transmitted in 3 different modes exploiting S/N, BW and T S/N dB BW Hz Duration T seconds degrees of freedom Hugely simplified for the purposes of explanation and clarity
  48. 48. S/N dB BW Hz Duration T seconds In the Extreme ‘Waste Bandwidth’ to push the Signal Below the Noise
  49. 49. S/N dB BW Hz Duration T seconds In the Extreme ‘Waste Bandwidth’ to push the Signal Below the Noise Filters Coding Modulation Timing Recovery Amplifiers & Mixers Jitter Phase Noise Doppler Shift Frequency Stability Multi-Path Propagation Negated
  50. 50. BW ~ 500MHz All digital no analogue elements - mixers, amplifies, filters UWB ON AFTERBURNERS From UWB To HWB Hyper Wide Band BW ~ 50GHz SIGNAL CODING/Error Correction => Bit Counting/Averaging 1bit/Hz 0.01bit/Hz
  51. 51. Huge amounts of electronic complexity along with: Jitter Filters Coding Modulation Phase Noise Doppler Shift Timing Recovery Frequency Stability Multi-Path Propagation W E J U S T N E G A T E D
  52. 52. Antennas spanning huge frequency ranges are a non-trivial, & whilst fractal antennas may be the ‘theoretical the holy grail’, no one has realised their full promise with workable/practical designs on the scale we need One MAJOR Challenge
  53. 53. Where does it come from ? • From a direction you are not looking • By a mechanism you didn’t contemplate • At a time that is really inconvenient D E AT H / D E F E AT/ Fa i l u r e
  54. 54. W A R FA R E Scale of Potential Devastation Potential Depth of Penetration Geographical Metaphysical Technological Psychological Ecological Biological Physical Virtual Real A wider perspective Land Sea Air Space Cyber Information
  55. 55. Cyber-Info War Nuclear-Warfare Bio-Chemical Warfare W A R FA R E Scale of Potential Devastation Potential Depth of Penetration Geographical Metaphysical Technological Psychological Ecological Biological Physical Virtual Real Total Extinction Trigger Event CatalystA wider perspective Land Sea Air Space Cyber Information
  56. 56. Cyber-Info War Nuclear-Warfare Bio-Chemical Warfare W A R FA R E Scale of Potential Devastation Potential Depth of Penetration Geographical Metaphysical Technological Psychological Ecological Biological Physical Virtual Real Total Extinction Trigger Event CatalystA wider perspective Land Sea Air Space Cyber Information THERE IS ONLY W AR AND EVERY DOMAIN IS INTERCONNECTED Governments AND The Military Can no longer protect their citizens
  57. 57. This varies year- on-year tempered by actual events P E R c e i v e d T h r e at s c a p e
  58. 58. This varies year- on-year tempered by actual events P E R c e i v e d T h r e at s c a p e The IOTISMissing Insider threat Recognised But NOT YET A PRIORITY
  59. 59. P E O P L E Biggest primary risk “I think can safely assume that lay people will never master cyber security” “Industry has to start supplying ‘complete products and services’ and long term support” “We need equipment, devices, networks capable of safe/secure self management and autonomous operation”
  60. 60. T H r e a t s c a p e AI behavioural analysis required Fun Fame Notoriety Vandalism Limited Skills Limited Resources Tend to be Sporadic Rogue States Criminals Hacker Groups Hacktivist Amateurs Money Sharing Organic Dispersed Unbounded Huge Effort Progressive Cooperatives Self Organising Vast Resources Massive Market Aggregated Skills Semi-Professional Substantial Networks Skilled Political Idealists Emotional Relentless Dedicated Cause Driven Vast Networks Varied Missions Targeted Attacks Evolving Community Drugs Fraud Global Extreme Extortion Business Unbounded Professional Well Managed Well Organised Ahead of the Curve Orchestrated Effort Extremely Profitable Syndicated Resources Massive Attack Surface Vast up-to-date Abilities Covert Money WarFare Influence Pervasive Disruption Espionage Professional Sophisticated Well Organised Extreme Creativity Orchestrated Effort Political Influencers ~Unlimited Resources Tech/Thought Leaders Regime Destabilisation Population Manipulation Military and Civil Domains Most attacks/attack-types and security failures traced back to human fallibility People are unaware, innocent, gullible, kind and helpful…exposed…but AI can detect and signal almost all attack types and attackers
  61. 61. I N S I D E R T H R E A T Edward Snowden reenactment Accessing, recording, and concealing data Demands Human//IT behavioural monitoring Casually walking out of the door For more goto UCISA Conference Birmingham May 2018
  62. 62. G R O U P T H R E A T Demands wider behavioural monitoring Chinese road, rail, airport, street public place observation Macau casino gaming table cheating detection
  63. 63. G R O U P T H R E A T Demands wider behavioural monitoring Chinese road, rail, airport, street public place observation Macau casino gaming table cheating detection A n o ther BIG step to w a rd so m e Dy sto pia n future
  64. 64. I o T C h a l l e n g e Ubiquitous - Made in China sans security IoT = Massive increase in attack surface: ~From10Bn to >> 50Bn devices Existing security solutions better than useless - but only just! New thinking and new solutions required Single Source = A critical dimension to overall security risks For more goto UCISA Conference Birmingham May 2018
  65. 65. I o T C h a l l e n g e Ubiquitous - Made in China sans security IoT = Massive increase in attack surface: ~From10Bn to >> 50Bn devices Existing security solutions better than useless - but only just! New thinking and new solutions required Single Source = A critical dimension to overall security risks For more goto UCISA Conference Birmingham May 2018 China makes a Big Fraction of all Devices and net equipment SOURCE Identity can be very hard even imposible to determiNe
  66. 66. WORLD Loss of freedom of speech Legal system collapse Societal Breakdown Loss of Liberty Dictatorship Police State Despotism ++++ Lies Half Truths Misinformation Perceptual Distortion Character Assassination Social Distortions Disillusionment Rumour Mills Dogma Distrust Fake News Censorship Media Control Societal Division Democratic Failure Government Intervention
  67. 67. USA LEADING THE WAY ? Social division, breakdown of law and order The Cult of Trump
  68. 68. Bigger and propagate faster, further, and deeper than the truth and validated information….and now growing in volume, extremism and span LIES & FAKE NEWS
  69. 69. Bigger and propagate faster, further, and deeper than the truth and validated information….and now growing in volume, extremism and span Sim ple & Easy to Grasp Plays to DispositionsLIES & FAKE NEWS Creates social division, social instability, unease, dissatisfaction, paranoia, extremism, rebellion, social instability leading to violence… No Thinking Required Reinforces Prejudices
  70. 70. E N E M Y W I T H I N Routine lies and info/data distortion Leaders Bankers Politicians Managers Activists Media
  71. 71. E N E M Y W I T H O U T Using a new; powerful weapon of war Ideological subversion: Changing the perceptions of populations to such an extent that despite an abundance of data/information no one can to come to sensible conclusions to defend themselves/families, their community/country”  Demoralisation (15 to 20 years) Re-educate one generation of students and change their perceptions and thinking Destabilisation (2 - 5 years) Target essential structural elements of a nation: economy, foreign relations, and defence systems Normalisation (4 weeks) Take over = people living under a new ideology and reality Four Basic Stages Crisis (6 weeks) Violent disruption to, and change of: power, structure, and economy
  72. 72. LANDSCAPE of liars Banks Media Moguls Groups Criminals Politicians Terrorists Individuals Institutions Industrialists Rogue States Governments Political Factions +++++ Hackers Despots Dictators Reporters Executives Extremists Companies Conspirators The Paranoid The Vulnerable The Disaffected The Mischievous The Disadvantaged +++++ Elusive Amoral Corrupt Dynamic Dedicated Unethical Disguised Nefarious Transient Relentless Dedicated Networked Distributed Untraceable Multi-Media Evolutionary Camouflaged Multi-Faceted Multi-Dimensional
  73. 73. EXTREME W EAPONS
  74. 74. Science, Discovery and Fundamental Truths Technology, Engineering and Infrastructures Farming, Food, Industries Institutions and Defence B a l a n c i n g A C T Government Media, Society No place for lies & dubious truths
  75. 75. Science, Discovery and Fundamental Truths Technology, Engineering and Infrastructures Farming, Food, Industries Institutions and Defence Lies Untruths Errors Guesses Distortions Cross Checks Evidence Base Understanding Knowledge Theories Models Tests B a l a n c i n g A C T Government Media, Society No place for lies & dubious truths
  76. 76. E X P L O I TAT I O N A new; powerful weapon of war Continually scan the internet: - Purge errors - Flag lies & liars - Publish veracity ratings - Remove/Attenuate rogue users - Block/Remove/Attenuate extreme channels - Identify/Advertise regular/persistent offenders - Attenuate/Attack/Disable criminal/rogue states - Detect an disconnect postings by AI lie generators - Isolate and mute rogue states and criminals Key Enabler = TRUTH ENGINES
  77. 77. T H E B I G Q U ES T I O N S Can we accurately and reliably identify truths, half truths, distortions, falsehoods and lies ? Can we establish new framework and metrics ? Can we make judgement calls fast enough ? Can we block/attenuate the pernicious ? Can we continuously cleanse the net ? Can we educate society to the risks ? ✔ ✔ ✔ ? ✔ ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
  78. 78. T r u t h E n g i n e s Easy to confirm facts - conjecture is harder Vital for: • Politics • Society • Science • Farming • Internet • Security • Industry • Education • Healthcare • Commerce • Government • ++++ “In most arenas truth is dynamic and changes with our ability to test & measure” “Accepted truths advance toward an absolute state with our ability to challenge them” Ignorance & Uncertainty Flat Spheroid Flat Spheroid Oblate Spheroid Dynamic Oblate Spheroid Precision Measurement & Truth
  79. 79. 1) Blatant: Knowingly contrived and delivered information 2) White: Knowingly contrived in order to be polite or to stop someone from being upset by the truth 3) Propagating: Repeat a stated lie without fact checking 4) Falsehood: To knowingly distort the truth or facts 5) Misinterpretation: Knowingly or unknowingly distort the truth or facts 6) Error: Innocently distort situations, events, truth or facts 7) Latent Error: Representing dynamic situations, occurrences, truth or facts on the basis of old information L I ES
  80. 80. E x p e r i m e n ts/ TO O LS 8) Bayesian Inference: Detecting a lie from linguistic patterns and previous behaviours of individuals and populations? 9) Simple AI: Can we detect and/or identify linguistic patterns and/or previous behaviours of individuals and populations? 10) Correlations: Can we detect repeating patterns for known lies and liars? 11) Trending Analysis: Can we establish historical analysis of past reporting as a reliable measure of accuracy? 12) Lie Recognition: Can we devise metrics from (8-11) above to detect an lie and then categorise it aka (1-7) ? ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
  81. 81. W h at W e N e e d Print Radio TV On ScreenSpokes People Context - Meaning Extractor - Inference Engine Fact Checkers - Primary Source Identification/Proximity Style - Behaviours, History, Publications Analysis Trending Analysis - Veracity % Rating ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
  82. 82. CO R E QU EST I O NS Veracity, accuracy, credibility testing Who is the author ? Why did they publish ? Who do they work for ? What is their reputation ? Are they paid/sponsored ? Do they have a following ? Do they cite trusted sources ? Do they have relevant expertise ? What is their purpose/motivation ? Is the material current/outdated ? What site/s is/are being used ? ++++++ Corroboration ! Fact Checking ! Correlation ! Likelihood ! Confidence Trending ! History ! C O U L D W E A U T O M A T E A L L T H I S
  83. 83. T H E DY N A M I CS Information spreading world-wide Errors, distortions, interpretations, air time availability, sensationalism, number of reports disconnected from any real significance, sees distorted perceptions Identify primary sources and all qualified reports… not always possible…especially when a story is developing rapidly… the environment is extremely noisy ! P E O P L E A s s o c i a t E V O L U M E W I T H T R U T H
  84. 84. C h e c k i n g Easy To Do ? Snopes Politifact FactCheck Wikipedia ProPublica MBFCNews OpenSecrets NewsBusters MediaMatters FactCheck.org HoaxSlayer.net TruthOrFiction.com Washington Post Fact Checker +++++ People intensive
  85. 85. C h e c k i n g Easy To Do ? Snopes Politifact FactCheck Wikipedia ProPublica MBFCNews OpenSecrets NewsBusters MediaMatters FactCheck.org HoaxSlayer.net TruthOrFiction.com Washington Post Fact Checker +++++ People intensive AGGREGATION Fact Checking Organisations Now exceed 160 World-Wide Collaboration, aggregation, sharing, and networking between checker projects underway in >50 countries R i p e f o r A u t o m a t i o n
  86. 86. TESTED resources ≈ ≈ Accurate 80%
  87. 87. TESTED resources ≈ ≈ Accurate 80% ~ 45% Accurate A F U N C T I O N O F T R U T H B E I N G D Y N A M I C
  88. 88. A comprehensive construct of every uttered, printed and recorded lie over all time is required as a reference source across all human and A I i n f o r m a t i o n sources… …does not exist as yet, but independents are starting to build the components…. L I B R A RY O F L I ES
  89. 89. A comprehensive construct of every uttered, printed and recorded lie over all time is required as a reference source across all human and A I i n f o r m a t i o n sources… …does not exist as yet, but independents are starting to build the components…. L I B R A RY O F L I ES www.thestar.com/news/world/uselection/2016/11/04/donald-trump-the-unauthorized-database-of-false-things.html http://www.davesweboflies.com/dwol.htm https://
  90. 90. A comprehensive construct of every uttered, printed and recorded lie over all time is required as a reference source across all human and A I i n f o r m a t i o n sources… …does not exist as yet, but independents are starting to build the components…. L I B R A RY O F L I ES www.thestar.com/news/world/uselection/2016/11/04/donald-trump-the-unauthorized-database-of-false-things.html http://www.davesweboflies.com/dwol.htm https:// Human LEGAL POLITIcS AND BEUROCRACY CONSTRAINTS ARE THE PRIMELIMITERS Not hard tocompile butrequires acoordinatedAUTOMATED global efforT
  91. 91. s e n s at i o n a l i s m F u k u s h i m a g r o s s o v e r e s t i m a t e s Feb 27, 2017 Fukushima prefecture tallied 2,129 “disaster-related deaths” 1368 have been listed as "related to the nuclear power plant” One worker is acknowledged to have died from radiation induced illness The Tsunami killed over 15,000 people Chernobyl Radiation Related Deaths Only 31 to date - since 1986 - but published estimates up to 600,000
  92. 92. s e n s at i o n a l i s m F u k u s h i m a g r o s s o v e r e s t i m a t e s Feb 27, 2017 Fukushima prefecture tallied 2,129 “disaster-related deaths” 1368 have been listed as "related to the nuclear power plant” One worker is acknowledged to have died from radiation induced illness The Tsunami killed over 15,000 people Chernobyl Radiation Related Deaths Only 31 to date - since 1986 - but published estimates up to 600,000 A ssessin g cases like this is easy but perplex in g as truth is n ot im portan t to such sources
  93. 93. A text only app (for now) based on language nuances A I N L P L I E D E T E C T O R S Companies + Universities >1000 Sample Articles >200 Participants >30 Countries 42 Teams 1 Week Mission = To Detect Propaganda Fake News Lies Outcome 10 Top Teams >86% Accuracy www.datasciencesociety.net
  94. 94. B e y o n d H u m a n C a p a b i l i t y D E L AY E D T I M E L I N E Applied across all sources continuously Reported Event Established Truth Accuracy Rating 100% 85% 95%90% All Time Aggregated Trust Rating100% 95% 91.7% 92.5%
  95. 95. Trending long Term
  96. 96. Propaganda Trending long Term
  97. 97. Trending long Term
  98. 98. T H E A M B I T I O N Facts Ethical History Honesty Pedigree Checked Rectitude Traceable Authentic Legitimate Actuality Genuine Veracity Verified Correct Certain Maxin Exact ++++ Misrepresentation Misinterpretation Disinformation Manipulation Subterfuge Vilification Ignorance Invention Mistakes Delusion Rumour Malice ++++ Myth Fable Fraud Errors Fiction Forgery Distortion Deception Falsehood Fabrication Inaccuracy Dishonesty Falsehoods Data Monitoring, Farming, Tracking, Measures, Metrics, Analysis, Decisions and Confidence Truth Lies A I ? Decisions to be automated & fast The only technology we have that might just do it is AI
  99. 99. TRUTH ENGINE STATUS ! Context/ Meaning Extractor Inference Engine Primary Source Identifier Fact Checkers Style History Publications Behaviours Library of Lies Trending Analysis Veracity Rating
  100. 100. T H E U LT I M AT E F I X A RED or the Blue pill for the public? Morpheus and Neo The Matrix 1999
  101. 101. Morpheus and Neo The Matrix 1999 W E Do have a choice !
  102. 102. You do nothing - you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You build a Truth Engine and you stay in wonderland and I might be able to show you how deep the rabbit hole goes. Remember, all I’m offering is the truth. Nothing more! Peter Cochrane 2018 With thanks to Morpheus and Neo The Matrix 1999
  103. 103. Voight-Kampff Test - Replicant or Human? Blade Runner 1982 Ridley Scott Thank You petercochrane.com www.slideshare.net/PeterCochrane

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