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The IoT For Real

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(Beyond simplistic thinking and models)
This lecture is one of a series ‘Grand Challenge Subjects’ designed to make students think beyond, and challenge, the status quo; to question what they have been taught and the established industry wisdoms; to look beyond the tech media and journal papers; to think, be original, and be creative in the widest sense. This all culminates in a design and build/project program spread over several weeks.

The notion that the IoT will see everything connecting via the internet using a wireless domain dominated by 5G is not only simplistic, it is fundamentally impossible. A moments thought and a few simple calculations reveal that there is not enough energy on the planet to power 50 - 250Bn or more IoT devices operating in such a mode. So how are we really going to design and engineer the IoT to become a workable proposition? Here are some clues:

3/4G: Carries <5% of all internet traffic; WiFi ~55%; Wired LANs @ 45%
Mobile Network coverage is sadly lacking @ <90% by geography
Mobile Device batteries and charging are major limitations
The internet consumes ~12% of all our energy
Mobile Devices consume ~ 1% and rising
Mobile Nets consume ~ 10%

None of the above takes into account the cost of raw materials, production, distribution, delivery, support, disposal and the ecological impact of civil engineering, equipments, and people.

During this lecture the following surprising conclusions quickly emerge:

Most IoT devices will talk to each other and never connect to the internet
IoT devices will require a range of bandwidths and not just low bit rates
The majority of IoT devices will communicate over very short distance
Our current wireless architectures are outmoded by the IoT
We will most likely need something beyond UWB
The power per IoT device has to be <<1mW
Security will demand auto-immunity

This then is the starting point; from here we can design and engineer solutions for an, as yet, unspecified and dimensioned IoT fit for this century.

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The IoT For Real

  1. 1. The IoT For Real Beyond simplistic thinking and models Prof Peter Cochrane OBE petercochrane.com Date: 24 April 2019 Time: 13.30 Location: Clifton Campus
  2. 2. O P E N Q U E S T I O N S T h i n k i n g b e f o r e d e s i g n i n g Why? H o w ? When? Were? 5G? S e c u r i t y ? A p p s ? Network? WTF?
  3. 3. I n n o v a t i o n a n d B O X E S 5G NetsSecurity I n o r o u t o f t h e b o x , o r b u i l d a n e w b o x Apps Spec
  4. 4. K E Y R E A L I S A T I O N S t o c o m e • Mos t (Io ) Thi ngs will never connect to the internet? • S e c u r i t y n e e d s a b i g re t h i n k / re v o l u t i o n ! • We need new wireless technologies! • There wi ll be eme rgent behaviours! • We have no suitable planning tools • 5G will become a marginal player! • To d a y ’s m o d e l s a re i n a d e q u a t e T h e I o T i s a v i t a l c o m p o n e n t o f s u s t a i n a b l e f u t u re s
  5. 5. Why are we building an IoT ? Where does it fit in our schema ? H o w i s i t g o i n g t o b e d e s i g n e d & b u i l t ? W I D E R P E R S P E C T I V E T h e w h y, w h e re a n d h o w o f t h e I o T Can we all make a positive contribution ?
  6. 6. T h e I o T i s a v i t a l c o m p o n e n t S u s t a i n a b i l i t y Sustaining all life with a human population >8Bn demands new tech and processes provided by I n d u s t r y 4 . 0 / 5 . 0 & t h e I o T i s a k e y e l e m e n t o f b o t h r e v o l u t i o n s
  7. 7. O U R C L O S E D S Y S T E M We a re s t re t c h i n g o u r o n l y l i f e s u p p o r t s y s t e m b e yo n d i t s n a t u ra l c a p a b i l i t y… …by a f actor >1.5 growing yea r - on - ye a r ; a n d t h e h u m a n p o p u l a t i o n c a n o n l y b e s u s t a i n e d b y n e w m a t e r i a l s , t e c h n o l o g i e s , c o n s e r va t i o n m e t h o d s a n d p ro c e s s e s b e yo n d M o t h e r N a t u re Available Resource Consumption
  8. 8. P R O B L E M S C A L E 2 4 x 3 6 5 p r o d u c t i o n t o o r d e r The problems confronting us demand more than changing all the lightbulbs What is before us is not trivial, it is wide-ranging, complex, and universal No one, and no thing, can escape the consequences of our future actions
  9. 9. C l i m a t e c h a n g e A l m o s t c e r t a i n l y d o w n t o u s Global warming is a real and growing threat…and the human cost will include mass migrations and loss of life on a huge scale… This has to be addressed from the stance of causality out into the extremes of the solution space… Emotional, panic and knee jerk reactions and measure will most likely make the situation even worse… SADLY - our politicians and decision makers never studied Thermodynamics
  10. 10. G R E A T E R E F F I C I E N C Y Po l i s h i n g w h a t w e a l r e a d y have only puts o f f t h e d a y o f j u d g e m e n t ; i t c a n b u t b u y u s s o m e e x t r a t i m e … b u t i t i s not enough!
  11. 11. T o T H E R E S C U E ? D o w e h a v e a l l t h e t e c h n o l o g i e s
  12. 12. G r e e n E n e r g y G e n e r a t i o n i s n o t t h e p r o b l e m , b u t s t o r a g e i s ! O u r b a t t e r y t e c h n o l o g y i s e x p e n s i v e , i n e f f i c i e n t a n d < 2 0 % o f t h e e n e r g y d e n s i t y o f o i l …
  13. 13. F a r m i n g & F O O D 2 4 x 3 6 5 p r o d u c t i o n t o o r d e r
  14. 14. N e w M a t e r i a l S t r o n g e r, l i g h t e r, t o u g h e r
  15. 15. N e w M a t e r i a l S e l f - r e p a i r n o w a r e a l i t y
  16. 16. N e w M a t e r i a l S e l f - r e p a i r n o w a r e a l i t y
  17. 17. N e w M a t e r i a l F r i c t i o n r e d u c i n g c o a t i n g s
  18. 18. N e w M a t e r i a l Sha pe programm ing for real C h a n g i n g m o d e s o f d e s i g n and manufacture/supply
  19. 19. D e x t e r i t y D E M A N D S R o b o t i c s Basic assembly line precision production at speed
  20. 20. WHEEL - TYRE REVOLUTION
  21. 21. SOUND WITH NO MOVING PARTS A pending revolution in surround sound & cancellation ?
  22. 22. Trachea Vertebral Disc Injection Molded Breathing Lung Printed/progra mme d Injection Molded Stem Cells as tools of construction
  23. 23. R E C Y C L I N G G r o s s l y i n e f f i c i e n t
  24. 24. T h e r e i s n o w a s t e I t i s a l l d i s c a rd e d re s o u rc e s t h a t c a n be recovered…the challenge is to do it at a ve ry high efficiency and very low energy cost
  25. 25. COMPLEXITY DEMANDS AI A n i n t e l l e c t a m p l i f i e r f o r h u m a n k i n d
  26. 26. A future based on new m a t e r i a l s , s c i e n c e s , technologies, engineering, p r o c e s s e s , a u t o m a t i o n , robotics, intelligences and thinking… centred on Nano and Bio Tech, AI and Robotics BIO-TECH nano-TECH Lower energy Lower waste Less friction New materials New industries New processes New capabilities Multi-Disciplinary hot spot for the 21C AIRobotics I n d u s t r y 4 .0 k e r n e l A n e w m a n - m a c h i n e p a r t n e r s h i p
  27. 27. E v e r y t h i n g p r o d u c e d t r a c k e d f ro m : m a t e r i a l source - refinement - supply - processing - testing - QA - assembly - application - use - distribution - sale - service - ownership - maintenance - repair - end of life - disposal Reuse, Repurpose, Materials Recovery, Recycling at a low energy cost with a low loss of base material… BIO-TECH nano-TECH AIRobotics I o T O r c h e s t r a t e d I n v i s i b l e r e s o u r c e m a n a g e m e n t IoT
  28. 28. Still very much prototype tech and a work in progress… not at all clear that the many challenges can be overcome ! Q u a n t u m C o m p u t i n g I 5 .0 ? V i t a l f o r a n y d e e p u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f c h e m i s t r y, biology, life, intelligence, complex systems..
  29. 29. U S E R D E S I G N L O O P I o T f e e d b a c k o n u s e r u s a g e Historical application data gathered across a wide user population will become a component in the design process along with failure, repair and maintenance data…followed by 3R at the end of life…
  30. 30. U S E R D E S I G N L O O P E v e r y c o m p o n e n t c o n n e c t e d a n d m o n i t o r e d / p r e d i s p o s e d t o 3 R D r i v e r / P a s s e n g e r / V e h i c l e h a b i t s a n d u s e m o n i t o r e d a n d f e d b a c k
  31. 31. P r o d u c t i o n L i n e Components tagged source to grave
  32. 32. I o T C o n n e c t e d B u t n o t v i a t h e i n t e r n e t Connectivity is life critical - reliability paramount - info security & integrity a must, low latency essential…but all i m p o s s i b l e v i a 3/4/5G/WiFi and the internet!
  33. 33. A L L C o n n e c t e d B u t n o t v i a t h e i n t e r n e t ~10 year battery life requirement precludes 3/4/5G + satellite connection ~30% of containers below deck with ~55% above deck inside a Faraday Cage Containers can talk to each other and Daisy Chain to the Bridge and SatComs
  34. 34. 3, 4, 5G nets cannot support the demands of future traffic and logistic networks… …but vehicle to vehicle systems can by providing the most efficient and relevant linking of users reporting their status and sharing local & pertinent info v e h i c l e t o v e h i c l e T i m e l y a n d a c c u r a t e i n f o r m a t i o n
  35. 35. AL L Ta g g e d R i p e f o r l o g g i n g
  36. 36. A L L C o n n e c t e d B u t n o t v i a t h e i n t e r n e t
  37. 37. F o o d w a r e h o u s E Automated order fulfilment sans 5G
  38. 38. I O T N e t w o r k Model predictions/animation Mesh Nets Rule ? Followed by Clouds ? Followed by Storage ?
  39. 39. aN IoT/CoTS Future + Unknowns • material sourcing • manufacturing history • distribution and supply chain • purchase and ownership details • application, usage, maintenance, repair • repurposing, reuse, recycling sequence • +++ This vision does not scale by energy demands, functionally, or economically, but networks without infrastructure do! Everything tagged, tracked, and on-line (???)
  40. 40. what we know for sure ? In the arena of rapidly changing mobile tech WiFi dominates data traffic carried ~ 50% Wired comes a close second ~ 45% 3/4G are bit players < 5% Very few new mobile tower sites available Mobile networks are congested Data traffic off load is vital Network infill demands customer micro-cells Copper DSL bandwidth is a limiter FTTH programmes are scarce FTTH installs are rare ~10Bn mobile devices o n t h e i n t e r n e t consume ~15% of all electrical energy 50Bn-1000Bn 5G IoT devices and a far b i g g e r i n t e r n e t cannot be supported The Future is even more dominated by S Y M M E T R I C SERVICES
  41. 41. 2G << 2.5G << 3G <<4G<<5G Incrementalism or A big leap ? High on Promise Low on Delivery High on Promise Low on Delivery The Great White Hope More of the same but slightly better or new thinking A few tech tweaks no big changes Voice + Data Add Ons Major new design voice and data Integrated Operation Data dominated design IP Based New Spectrum Squeezing more into the same Spectrum slicing and dicing to support 4G This cannot be fudged it needs radical thinking and solutions
  42. 42. Does everything well ????? T H E B I G F I X ? 5g • Replaces optical fibre • Outguns 3 & 4G • Gbit/s everywhere • Will dominate the IoT • Cooks a chicken • Improves your sex life….
  43. 43. A radical view ?? We have no digital radios - only analogue bent to our digital will! Thinking and doing nothing new will deliver no real value If the mobile industry is to prosper - there is no option!
  44. 44. copper modems for wireless systems We took what we new and understood from a world of narrow band copper & adapted it to the limitations of wireless
  45. 45. bands & channels ARE an Analogue legacy The antithesis of digital thinking and needs born out of the age of the valve, Morse Code, Telex, and Broadcast
  46. 46. a ‘fork lift’ history / legacy Big masts/transmitters/receivers, high power, no mobile Broadcast dominated, one way communication, long distances, interference, government controls, regulation, licensing +++
  47. 47. ‘fork lift’ today ! Old band, channel, modulation thinking Operating frequencies are much higher, but the same old modes persist with interference, government controls, regulation, licensing +++
  48. 48. ks Bns Sensors RFID Number Tx of devices MW mW Distance & Power Mobiles 3/4/5G Tns Ms WiFi/Max100ks 100% The need for regulation and control ~ 0% IoTPROGRESSION
  49. 49. A Mind Experiment Suppose we had no… ..wireless systems, but we invent them in an hour?? Would we go: LW, MW, SW, V H F , U H F , M i c r o w a v e , Satellite…? Would we go: CW, AM, FM, SSB, VSB…FSK, PSK, QPRSK…? NO !
  50. 50. what might we do If we assumed a clean sheet If we went truly digital If we abandoned bands If we abandoned channels If we adapted digital thinking No licences No controls No regulation No government Might it lead to a world of
  51. 51. there is no spectrum fAmine !
  52. 52. Actually it is mostly unused! City of Chicago study <17% of commercial spectrum used there is no spectrum fAmine !
  53. 53. Reality over perception All human created wireless energy is currently concentrated here But there is >1000x more unused space here IR + >>Reuse
  54. 54. spectrum futures Short range cell and point to point give higher reuse ratios and BW advantage of >> 1,000,000 Infrared and Microwave enjoy very similar propagation performance over short distances BW and Frequency are the determinants
  55. 55. Water Oxygen Water Water Oxygen spectrum PAST AND future The Old Analogue Root Long Distances Low Bandwidth Complex Coding Bands & Channels Global Constraints Country Regulated Spectrum Planning Licensed Control Policed Operation Digital Root Short Distances High Bandwidth Simple Coding No Bands No Channels Licence Codes No Spectrum Plan The New
  56. 56. band / channel wastage The signal space is mostly unoccupied << 10% 960 Operator 1 Operator 2 Operator 3 MHz W/m2µ 950940 0.01 0.001 0.1 100 10 1 960
  57. 57. s p e c t r u m f u t u r e s dBm -40 -60 -80 -100 -120 -30 -50 -70 -90 -110 Bands and channels kill spread n We can tr y to continue on this path Or we can adopt ‘massive spreads and operate below the thermal noise level
  58. 58. S/N dB BW Hz Duration T seconds Information transmitted over a channel expressed as a volumetric function of S/N, BW and Time - aka Claude Shannon 1945/46 I = B.T log2(1 + k.S/N) I ~ B.T.K.S/NdB vv Back to basics! S p re a d S p e c t r u m allows us to fill this volume ! The theoretical limit for a channel can also be applied to a band ! Theoretically possible ? By the application of a little engineering licence !!
  59. 59. S/N dB BW Hz Duration T seconds For real time communication we can in general only trade BW and S/N, but for non-real time we can also include T as a third variable…. An often forgotten trade off! Information transmitted in different modes of S/N, BW and T
  60. 60. S/N dB BW Hz Duration T seconds For real time communication we can in general only trade BW and S/N, but for non-real time we can also include T as a third variable…. An often forgotten trade off! Information transmitted in different modes of S/N, BW and T
  61. 61. actuality - city location Sub-optimal (grossly inefficient) signal space occupancy BandWidth S/N t Signal space visibly available in every dimension of channel and band - to be used/ exploited by Spread Spectrum across as wide a frequency range as possible…
  62. 62. E VE N M o r e R a d i c a l Why apply banding when there is no need? Water Oxygen Water Water Oxygen 60GHz Band = 7 GHz 57 - 64 = 7GHz 50 - 300 = 250GHz 50 - 300 GHz could be used with occupancy dynamically determined by app and distance - and coding shaped spectrum to occupy the signal space to maximal use and efficiency…
  63. 63. G r e a t e r t o l e r a n c e t o p h a s e n o i s e Simpler synch/training sequences Greater interference immunity Simpler modulation/coding Better spread efficiency Greater adaptability Less overall power Faster acquisition Higher bit rates Higher utility Better S/NLower energy demands = smaller batteries / longer up times Advantage sans bands, channels and controls m a s s i v e s p r e a d s
  64. 64. BW ~ 500MHz All digital no analogue elements - mixers, amplifies, filters From UWB To HWB Hyper Wide Band BW ~ 50GHz SIGNAL Hidden in the thermal noise and coded recovery necessary 1bit/Hz 0.01bit/Hz m a s s i v e s p r e a d s
  65. 65. c h a l l e n g e s t o c o m e ! Blue Tooth Short Range Device to Device Device to Cloud WiFi/WiMax Medium Range WLAN/Cloud 3, 4, 5, 6 G Long Range Device to Net Device to Cloud SatCom Broadcast Conflicted technologies, integrated and intelligent security systems embedded into all products and all components Mixed narrow/wideband, short/long reach, modulation
  66. 66. antenna futures Fractal designs have been the great white hope for unified antennas spanning BlueTooth, WiFi, 3G, 4G - but they have not lived up to their early promise - as yet ! Mobile device real estate war
  67. 67. … and the Dark Side think it will be Christmas every day! T H E S E C U R I T Y T H R E AT IoT massively magnifies the attack surface
  68. 68. I o t N I G H T M a r e Food & toasters to vehicles https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZVYTJarPFs
  69. 69. A Multiplicity of channels Attack detection/exposure/thwarting using access diversity BlueTooth Short Range Device to Cloud Device to Device WiFi, WiMax Medium Range WLAN/Cloud Integrated and intelligent security systems embedded into all products and components ZigBe/Other ?? Car-to-Car Direct Communications Defence opportunities in channel/device/system diversity A wide plurality of channel detection and protection Attacks almost never isolated or single sourced Not restricted to single channel/attempt Secure attack and infection isolation Diverse immunity/support access Distributed info sharing GEO info location 3, 4, 5 G Long Range Device to Net Device to Cloud SatCom Broadcast
  70. 70. Broadcasting Malware Responding with updated protection Wider Network Updated Latest Solution Update Dynamic isolation of infected devices and components leading to repair A u t o - i m m u n i t y A m i x o f c l e a n a n d i n f e c t e d
  71. 71. A u t o - i m m u n i t y Mirrors biological forebears Applied everywhere 24 x 7 ICs ISPs WiFi Hubs LANs Cards Traffic Servers Circuits Devices Internet Networks Organisations Companies Platforms Groups People Mobile Fixed
  72. 72. A u t o - i m m u n i t y F i g h t i n g f i r e w i t h f i r e
  73. 73. what is our actual mission here ? “The maximal exploitation of the EM Spectrum to the advantage of Man and Machine for the purposes of communication, sensing, manipulation, and processing in the realisation of sustainable systems and societies” It is vital that we get this right…
  74. 74. AND if we don’t ??
  75. 75. petercochrane.com Thank You

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