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The next industrial revolution
The document discusses the potential for a new industrial revolution driven by advanced technologies like AI, nanotechnology, and bioinformatics, highlighting the shift in societal expectations amidst increasing connectivity and digital accessibility. It emphasizes the importance of creating sustainable ecosystems and the convergence of various scientific fields while warning of the challenges posed by our limited ability to adapt to rapid change. Additionally, it critiques current organizational structures, proposing a future where technology enhances decision-making and societal dynamics.
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The next industrial revolution
- 1. The next industrial revolution?Peter Cochrane www.ca-global.org COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s
- 2.
- 3. Not so longago....unbelievable constraints !
- 4. Not so longago....unbelievable constraints !
- 5. An amazing confluence....allthe technologies available in the same timeframe!
- 6. Everybody is nowon line... The digital divide has gone...hardware and access costs are no longer an issue....and nor is software!
- 7. >5Bn people havemobiles & >50% are internet ready!
- 8. Soon it willbe everything! >5Bn people have mobiles & >50% are internet ready!
- 9. ~20 years ofliving on line… …and now entering the workforce… -Any platform - Any device - Any OS - Any Application - An entirely different expectation!
- 10. For young people,joining a company is like being catapulted back in time... Networked Cool Apps Unlimited storage Processing Power Bandwidth Fixed & mobile Open, sharing Influential
- 11. For young people,joining a company is like being catapulted back in time... Networked Cool Apps Why isn’t working at Unlimited storage Processing Power the office the same Bandwidth as working at home? Fixed & mobile Open, sharing Influential
- 12. IT Dept’s can nolonger cope ...or compete !
- 13. Creativity is now atthe edge, out of control, open, & distributed...
- 14. The most importanthot spot.... Commerce People & & Governance Society Science & Technology
- 15. The most importanthot spot.... Commerce People & & Governance Society Science & Technology
- 16. The most importanthot spot.... Commerce People & & Governance Society Science & This where the action Technology always is – and ‘we’ are the primary impediment of change
- 17. How the previousindustrial revolution is still perceived....
- 18. How the previousindustrial revolution is still perceived....
- 19. The reality today.... Machinesproduce everything....and without them we would all die...
- 20. The reality today.... Machinesproduce everything....and without them we would all die...
- 21. We have tostand on the shoulders of what went before....but it was a ‘food to waste’ cycle This is unsustainable in the long, and perhaps even the short, term - and growth always has limits !
- 22. Mother Nature onthe other hand....has created sustainable ‘food to waste to food’ cycles This eco-system model is now one we have to aspire to…to live symbiotically with our planet !
- 23.
- 24. A new allencompassing approach.... Nano Bio IT + AI
- 25. A new allencompassing approach.... Nano Bio IT + AI
- 26. A new allencompassing approach.... Nano Bio IT + This will give rise to new AI materials, medicines, capabilities and greater understanding
- 27. The convergence of‘dry’ & ‘wet’ science’ - genome, protein, nano, intelligence, robotics, AI + AL with old, and new forms of genetics
- 28. A new abilityto replicate 3D objects at a distance...
- 29. A new abilityto replicate 3D objects at a distance...
- 30. Distributed design andproduction in the office and home... With recycling that works and a new ‘open hardware’ movement/culture...leading to new models of innovation!
- 31. A new abilityto program materials to form 3D objects of a predefined shape & function...
- 32. A new abilityto program materials to form 3D objects of a predefined shape & function...
- 33. A new abilityto program materials to form 3D objects of a predefined shape & function...
- 34. A new abilityto program materials to form 3D objects of a predefined shape & function...
- 35. A new abilityto understand complex systems through sheer computational power and AI...will transform Pharma & R&D +++
- 36. The biggest challengewe face? Our inherent inability to change quickly coupled with our ignorance of everything complex and non-linear...
- 37. The biggest challengewe face? Our inherent inability to change quickly coupled with our ignorance of everything complex and non-linear... We need help from the very technology we are creating...in order to make the right choices & decisions
- 38. Where are people& society headed? Where are New Companies headed? More Less
- 39. Where are people& society headed? Where are New Companies headed? Openness More Less
- 40. Where are people& society headed? Where are New Companies headed? Openness Sharing More Less
- 41. Where are people& society headed? Where are New Companies headed? Openness Sharing Communicative More Less
- 42. Where are people& society headed? Where are New Companies headed? Openness Sharing Communicative More Less Tech Capable
- 43. Where are people& society headed? Where are New Companies headed? Openness Sharing Communicative More Less Tech Capable Transitory
- 44. Where are people& society headed? Where are New Companies headed? Openness Sharing Communicative More Less Tech Capable Transitory Independence
- 45. Where are people& society headed? Where are New Companies headed? Openness Sharing Communicative More Less Tech Capable Transitory Independence Global
- 46. Openness Sharing Communicative More Less Tech Capable Transitory Independence Global
- 47. Where are NewCompanies headed? More Less
- 48. Where are NewCompanies headed? Controlism More Less
- 49. Where are NewCompanies headed? Controlism Concentration More Less
- 50. Where are NewCompanies headed? Controlism Concentration Hierarchy More Less
- 51. Where are NewCompanies headed? Controlism Concentration Hierarchy More Less Myopia
- 52. Where are NewCompanies headed? Controlism Concentration Hierarchy More Less Myopia Adaptability & Flexibility
- 53. Where are NewCompanies headed? Controlism Concentration Hierarchy More Less Myopia Adaptability & Flexibility People Focus
- 54. Where are NewCompanies headed? Controlism Concentration Hierarchy More Less Myopia Adaptability & Flexibility People Focus Outsourcing
- 55. IT continues tobe exponential !
- 56. Is there an end in sight?? 100 mm Shockley, Bardeen, Human 0.1 mm and Brattain - 1947 hair The first IC-1959 10 mm ICs-1980 1 mm Bacteria Today’s Visible light transistors 0.10 mm Intel 2006 Viruses Intel 2010 End of the road? 10 nm ~2020 - 2025 Diameter of a X-rays 1.0 nm DNA helix Silicon lattice constant Diameter of a 0.1 nm carbon atom 1 angstrom
- 57. Atomic manipulation hasbeen a reality for some time… & just gets better – currently approaching the electron
- 58. Why is ITreally critical? Well, on a grand scale, we don’t understand much!
- 59. Everything in theuniverse is governed by non-linearity and chaotic actions….
- 60. Everything in theuniverse is governed by non-linearity and chaotic actions…. …but we are linear and limited thinkers devoid of tools & techniques to help us comprehend…
- 61. Everything in theuniverse is governed by non-linearity and chaotic actions…. …but we are linear and limited thinkers devoid of tools & techniques to help us comprehend… If we have a long-term future it lies with technology & machines and their ability to extend our knowledge and understanding
- 62. Futures Advance Society Technology Wealth Health Well Being Time
- 63. Futures Advance Society Technology Wealth Health Well Being Oil runs out We do nothing Planet retaliates Life dies Time
- 64. Futures Advance Society Technology Wealth Our green effort works Health & status quo just holds Well Being Oil runs out We do nothing Planet retaliates Life dies Time
- 65. Futures Cold Fusion Climatic Control Advance Earth Management Nano - Bio Tech Society AI + AL +++ Technology Wealth Our green effort works Health & status quo just holds Well Being Oil runs out We do nothing Planet retaliates Life dies Time
- 66. Futures Cold Fusion Climatic Control Advance Earth Management Nano - Bio Tech Society AI + AL +++ Technology Our climate and planet models are Wealth Our green effort works so crude that we have& no real just holds Health status quo clue Well Beingwhich trajectory we are on about …..and if we can influence itout Oil runs anyway! We do nothing Planet retaliates Life dies Time
- 67. We now livein a world of the infinite… … how do you find, how do you choose?
- 68. Predicting the Present Economic Index Lag Variables Google Trends Other Exogenous Variable
- 69. Automobiles 35
- 70. Auto Sales byMake (Top 9 Make by Sales) Monthly Sales vs. Google Trends at Second Week of each month 36 9
- 71. When you get tectonicforces…
- 72. When you get tectonicforces… Shift happens!
- 73. The changing shapeof societies… Inherently Hunter Early Industrial linear & well Gatherer Civilizations Revolution behaved… Optimizing individual parts can optimize the whole Intuition mostly works
- 74. The changing shapeof societies… Inherently Hunter Early Industrial linear & well Gatherer Civilizations Revolution behaved… Optimizing individual parts can optimize the whole Intuition mostly Connectivity ∝ N and does not scale works
- 75. The changing shapeof societies… Information Society
- 76. The changing shapeof societies… Connectivity Phone ∝N 2 Information Society Internet∝N n
- 77. The changing shapeof societies… Semantic Society This all gets very much worse as everything becomes mobile and intelligent and sensory
- 78. The changing shapeof societies… Semantic Society This all gets very much worse as everything becomes mobile and intelligent and sensory
- 79. The changing shapeof societies… Semantic Society This all gets very much worse as everything becomes mobile and intelligent and sensory
- 80. The changing shapeof societies… Semantic Society This all gets very much worse as everything becomes mobile and intelligent and sensory
- 81. The changing shapeof societies… Semantic Society This all gets very much worse as everything becomes mobile and intelligent and sensory
- 82. The changing shapeof societies… Inherently non-linear & Semantic not well Society behaved… Optimizing individual parts never optimizes the whole Intuition mostly fails
- 83.
- 84. Web 3.0...4.0...5.0... Autonomous: Sensors Computing power Artificial Intelligence Human Augmentation Decision Making System Control People Support Society Support Commercial Support
- 85. The sociology ofpeople & animals will be overtaken by the sociology of fixed & mobile things
- 86. The sociology ofpeople & animals will be overtaken by the sociology of fixed & mobile things
- 87. A general observa3on ! We reward those who afford us more freedom – not less!
- 88. Spot the problem... ~9months Tech Cycle ~2.5 years Management Cycle ~5 years People Cycle 2 - 10 years Procurement Cycle
- 89. Expect to seebooks, paper, telephones, email, txt ++ to die within the next decade ...and social nets & apps take over...
- 90. We live ina society obsessed with risk! What about the upside/downside ratio?
- 91. Modern organizations nowlook like this… Risk analysis
- 92. Modern organizations nowlook like this… Risk analysis Opportunity analysis
- 93. Thank You COCHRANE a ss o c i a t e s
- 94. Thank You ca-global.org cochrane.org.uk COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s