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Daily Technical Outlook

                                                                                                            11th October 2012
         Indices *             Close          % Chg.                              Markets drift lower
 BSE SENSEX                    18631.10             -0.86
 S&P CNX NIFTY                 5652.15              -0.92     Mirroring the weak global market cues the domestic markets
 NIFTY OCT. FUT.                5672.45             -0.90     witnessed a negative opening. Sustained selling pressure
 India VIX                      16.83               0.17      was witnessed, while buying support remained absent. The
                                                              markets failed to show any resilience against selling pressure
        S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels                        as markets drifted lower. The markets ended the day with
                 Level 1       Level 2         Level 3        modest losses to close near the lows for the day. The top
Support           5630          5607            5526          losers for the day were DLF, Siemens, IDFC, Rel. Infra, SBI,
Resistance        5703          5741            5884          Hindalco, M&M, Tata Power, NTPC and Sesa Goa.

 Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY                         Technically, the market breadth remained weak, amidst
50 Day SMA                     5441.51                        lower volumes. The prevailing technical negatives
100 Day SMA                    5273.84                        continue to hold good and are weighing on the market
200 Day SMA                    5222.03        ◄Positive       sentiment. The RSI, Stochastic, KST and MACD are still
                                                              placed below their respective averages. Moreover, the
   Market Breadth *             BSE             NSE           Stochastic is placed in the over bought zone. These
Advances                             978               265    technical negatives would lead to profit taking and
Declines                            1929               882    selling pressure. However, a few positive technical
Same                                 124                 27   conditions still continue to hold good The KST and the
Total                               3031             1174     MACD are still placed in the positive territory, which
A/D Ratio                        0.51 : 1          0.30 : 1
                                                              augurs well for the markets. Moreover, the Nifty remains
                                                              placed above its 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day
             Volume (Lacs Shares)         *                   SMA. More so the Nifty’s 50-day SMA remains placed
               10/10/12        09/10/12        % Chg.         above Nifty’s 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA, the later
BSE                    2848         3063             -7.02
                                                              being called the ‘Golden Cross breakout’. These positive
                                                              conditions would lead to buying support at lower levels.
NSE                    7008         7071             -0.90
                                                              The ADX line and –DI line are moving higher and are
Total                  9856       10134              -2.75
                                                              placed above the 42 level, indicating sellers have an
             Turnover ( ` Crores)         *                   upper hand. The market sentiment remains cautious and
               10/10/12        09/10/12        % Chg.
                                                              tentative ahead of the earnings season. In the meanwhile
                                                              the markets would take cues from the forthcoming
BSE                  2053.80     2351.31            -12.65
                                                              quarterly results, global markets, Rupee and the crude
NSE              10390.92       11017.10             -5.68
                                                              prices. The support levels for Nifty are placed at 5630, 5607,
NSE F&O         117568.37 112700.41                   4.32    5526, and 5448. The Nifty faces resistance at 5703, 5741,
Total           130013.09 126068.82                   3.13    5884, 5912 and 5945 levels.
         F&O Contracts Traded (NSE)            *
               10/10/12        09/10/12        % Chg.
Index Fut.           349364      332083               5.20
Stock Fut.           446215      478027               6.65
Index Opt.        2989553       2791489               7.10
Stock Opt.           264476      252593               4.70
Total             4049608       3854192               5.45

NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE

Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net                   Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in


                                                                    Keynote Capitals Ltd.
              The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                                   www.keynotecapitals.com
Jaldi 5 (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days)
                                                                                  Stop
                                                   Initiation       Stop          Loss                     Target
       Stock            Close        Action          Price         Loss *          (%)       Target         (%)           Remarks
                                                                                                                      TGT of 139
                                                                                                                      Achieved given
                                                                                                                      Sell @ 143.45
Allahabad Bank Fut      137.20      Sell Below           137           139.25      1.64          132          3.65    on 09/10/12
Bharti Airtel Fut       263.30      Sell Below           262           267.50      2.10          250          4.58
Hinalco Fut            116.70   Sell Below           117      120.25               3.22          110          5.58
* Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis.

                                                            Intra-day Resistance                           Intra-day Support
       Indices            Close        Pivot Point         R1       R2         R3                     S1          S2         S3
BSE SENSEX                  18631                18662      18710         18788          18915        18583          18536    18410
S&P CNX NIFTY                5652                 5662          5677       5701           5741         5637           5622     5583
NIFTY OCT. FUT.              5672                 5683          5700       5727           5771         5656           5640     5596




                                           Stocks To Watch Out Today
Allahabad Bank, Apollo Tyre, BoB, BF Utilities, Bharti Airtel, CESC, Coal India, Dabur, DLF, GAIL, GMR Infra, Godrej Inds;
HDIL, Hindalco, HPCL, IB Realestate, IDBI, Idea, IDFC, IGL, Indusind Bank, LIC Hsg; NTPC, ONGC, Punj Lloyd, Raymond,
Rel. Com; Rel. Capital, Rel. Infra; SBI, Siemens, Tata Comm; Tata Power, Uco Bank, Uniphos, Unitech, Vijaya Bank, Wipro,
ZEEL
Aurobindo Pharma, FT, ITC, JSW Steel, Jubilant Food, Karnataka Bank, Tata Global, Titan

                                                          Keynote Capitals Ltd.
             The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                         www.keynotecapitals.com
NOTE:

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS
SMA – Simple Moving Average
EMA – Exponential Moving Average
WMA – Weighted Moving Average




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                                                       Keynote Capitals Ltd.
          The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                      www.keynotecapitals.com

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Keynote technicals daily report

  • 1. Daily Technical Outlook 11th October 2012 Indices * Close % Chg. Markets drift lower BSE SENSEX 18631.10 -0.86 S&P CNX NIFTY 5652.15 -0.92 Mirroring the weak global market cues the domestic markets NIFTY OCT. FUT. 5672.45 -0.90 witnessed a negative opening. Sustained selling pressure India VIX 16.83 0.17 was witnessed, while buying support remained absent. The markets failed to show any resilience against selling pressure S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels as markets drifted lower. The markets ended the day with Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 modest losses to close near the lows for the day. The top Support 5630 5607 5526 losers for the day were DLF, Siemens, IDFC, Rel. Infra, SBI, Resistance 5703 5741 5884 Hindalco, M&M, Tata Power, NTPC and Sesa Goa. Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY Technically, the market breadth remained weak, amidst 50 Day SMA 5441.51 lower volumes. The prevailing technical negatives 100 Day SMA 5273.84 continue to hold good and are weighing on the market 200 Day SMA 5222.03 ◄Positive sentiment. The RSI, Stochastic, KST and MACD are still placed below their respective averages. Moreover, the Market Breadth * BSE NSE Stochastic is placed in the over bought zone. These Advances 978 265 technical negatives would lead to profit taking and Declines 1929 882 selling pressure. However, a few positive technical Same 124 27 conditions still continue to hold good The KST and the Total 3031 1174 MACD are still placed in the positive territory, which A/D Ratio 0.51 : 1 0.30 : 1 augurs well for the markets. Moreover, the Nifty remains placed above its 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day Volume (Lacs Shares) * SMA. More so the Nifty’s 50-day SMA remains placed 10/10/12 09/10/12 % Chg. above Nifty’s 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA, the later BSE 2848 3063 -7.02 being called the ‘Golden Cross breakout’. These positive conditions would lead to buying support at lower levels. NSE 7008 7071 -0.90 The ADX line and –DI line are moving higher and are Total 9856 10134 -2.75 placed above the 42 level, indicating sellers have an Turnover ( ` Crores) * upper hand. The market sentiment remains cautious and 10/10/12 09/10/12 % Chg. tentative ahead of the earnings season. In the meanwhile the markets would take cues from the forthcoming BSE 2053.80 2351.31 -12.65 quarterly results, global markets, Rupee and the crude NSE 10390.92 11017.10 -5.68 prices. The support levels for Nifty are placed at 5630, 5607, NSE F&O 117568.37 112700.41 4.32 5526, and 5448. The Nifty faces resistance at 5703, 5741, Total 130013.09 126068.82 3.13 5884, 5912 and 5945 levels. F&O Contracts Traded (NSE) * 10/10/12 09/10/12 % Chg. Index Fut. 349364 332083 5.20 Stock Fut. 446215 478027 6.65 Index Opt. 2989553 2791489 7.10 Stock Opt. 264476 252593 4.70 Total 4049608 3854192 5.45 NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 2. Jaldi 5 (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days) Stop Initiation Stop Loss Target Stock Close Action Price Loss * (%) Target (%) Remarks TGT of 139 Achieved given Sell @ 143.45 Allahabad Bank Fut 137.20 Sell Below 137 139.25 1.64 132 3.65 on 09/10/12 Bharti Airtel Fut 263.30 Sell Below 262 267.50 2.10 250 4.58 Hinalco Fut 116.70 Sell Below 117 120.25 3.22 110 5.58 * Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis. Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support Indices Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3 BSE SENSEX 18631 18662 18710 18788 18915 18583 18536 18410 S&P CNX NIFTY 5652 5662 5677 5701 5741 5637 5622 5583 NIFTY OCT. FUT. 5672 5683 5700 5727 5771 5656 5640 5596 Stocks To Watch Out Today Allahabad Bank, Apollo Tyre, BoB, BF Utilities, Bharti Airtel, CESC, Coal India, Dabur, DLF, GAIL, GMR Infra, Godrej Inds; HDIL, Hindalco, HPCL, IB Realestate, IDBI, Idea, IDFC, IGL, Indusind Bank, LIC Hsg; NTPC, ONGC, Punj Lloyd, Raymond, Rel. Com; Rel. Capital, Rel. Infra; SBI, Siemens, Tata Comm; Tata Power, Uco Bank, Uniphos, Unitech, Vijaya Bank, Wipro, ZEEL Aurobindo Pharma, FT, ITC, JSW Steel, Jubilant Food, Karnataka Bank, Tata Global, Titan Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 3. NOTE: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS SMA – Simple Moving Average EMA – Exponential Moving Average WMA – Weighted Moving Average Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent. Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com