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Daily Technical Outlook

                                                                                                         12th November 2012
         Indices *             Close          % Chg.                     Markets reel under pressure
 BSE SENSEX                    18683.68             -0.86
 S&P CNX NIFTY                  5686.25             -0.91     Mirroring the weak global market cues, the domestic markets
 NIFTY NOV. FUT.                5720.60             -0.77     witnessed a subdue opening. Sustained selling pressure was
 India VIX                        14.37             1.05      witnessed as markets drifted lower. The markets failed to
                                                              show any resilience against selling pressure as buying
        S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels                        support remained weak. The markets ended the day with
                 Level 1       Level 2         Level 3        modest losses to close near the lows for the day. The top
Support           5665          5554            5447          losers for the day were SBI, Tata Steel, ONGC, IDFC, Sesa
Resistance        5747          5816            5885          Goa, BHEL, Ambuaj Cements, Siemens, NTPC and JP
                                                              Associates.
 Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY
50 Day SMA                     5593.93                        Technically, the market breadth remained negative,
100 Day SMA                    5422.77                        amidst higher volumes, which is a negative sign for the
200 Day SMA                    5311.20        ◄Positive       markets. The prevailing negative technical conditions
                                                              continued to put pressure on the bourses. These
   Market Breadth *             BSE             NSE           conditions still hold good. The RSI has slipped below its
Advances                            1122               340    average. Moreover, the Stochastic and KST is already
Declines                            1733               812    slipped below their respective averages. All these
Same                                 123                 43   negative conditions are likely to lead to further selling
Total                               2978             1195     pressure. However, prevailing technical positives also
A/D Ratio                        0.65 : 1          0.42 : 1
                                                              hold good and would help in supporting the markets at
                                                              lower levels. The MACD is placed above its average and
             Volume (Lacs Shares)         *                   has also moved in the positive territory. Moreover, the
               09/11/12        08/11/12        % Chg.         KST is still placed in the positive territory, which augurs
BSE                    2849         2563            11.16
                                                              well for the markets. The Nifty remains placed above its
                                                              50-day SMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA. More so the
NSE                    6762         6838             -1.12
                                                              Nifty’s 50-day SMA remains placed above Nifty’s 100-day
Total                  9611         9401              2.23
                                                              SMA and 200-day SMA, the later being called the ‘Golden
             Turnover ( ` Crores)         *                   Cross breakout’. These positive conditions would lead to
               09/11/12        08/11/12        % Chg.
                                                              regular bouts of short covering and buying support. The
                                                              ADX line, +DI line and –DI line are moving sideways,
BSE                  2475.58     2606.97             -5.04
                                                              indicating a range bound trend. The market sentiment
NSE              10888.54       11132.51             -2.19
                                                              remains cautious. The Nifty has closed below the 5747
NSE F&O         132293.41 112092.67                 18.02     level for the second day in row. Now, it is important that
Total           145657.53 125832.15                 15.76     the Nifty moves and sustains above the 5747 level for
                                                              buying support to emerge. In the meanwhile the markets
         F&O Contracts Traded (NSE)            *
                                                              would take cues from the global markets, earnings
                                               % Chg.
               09/11/12        08/11/12
                                                              season, Rupee and the crude prices. The support levels for
Index Fut.           341381      286665             19.09     Nifty are placed at 5665, 5554 and 5447 The Nifty faces
Stock Fut.           594435      559475               6.25    resistance at 5747, 5816, 5885, 5910 and 5945 levels.
Index Opt.        3173347       2679873             18.41
Stock Opt.           523969      358474             46.17
Total             4633132       3884487             16.96

NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE


Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net                   Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in


                                                                   Keynote Capitals Ltd.
              The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                                   www.keynotecapitals.com
Jaldi 5 (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days)
                                                                                     Stop
                                                      Initiation       Stop          Loss                     Target
      Stock             Close           Action          Price         Loss *          (%)       Target         (%)              Remarks
Apollo Tyre Fut           80.65        Sell Below            80.40         82.50       2.61         76           5.47
Dabur Fut                128.75        Sell Below           128.00        130.25       1.76         123          3.91


Colgate               1327.55   Buy Above        1331.00    1311.00                    1.50     1375.00          3.31
* Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis.

                                                                 Intra-day Resistance                         Intra-day Support
      Indices             Close           Pivot Point           R1       R2         R3                   S1          S2         S3
BSE SENSEX                   18684                  18745       18833        18983          19221        18595          18507       18269
S&P CNX NIFTY                   5686                 5705          5733       5779           5853         5659           5631        5557
NIFTY NOV. FUT.                 5721                 5735          5768       5815           5894         5688           5656        5576




                                              Stocks To Watch Out Today
Colgate, FT, Havells, HDFC, HDFC bank, IB realestate, IDFC, Indusinfd bank, Tata Global, Yes Bank
Aban offshore, Apollo Tyre, BPCL, Dabur, GAIL, GMR Infra, Godrej Inds; GVK, India Cement, JSW Energy, L&T, ONGC,
Petronet, PFC, PTC, ranbaxy, Rel. Capital, Reliance, Rel. Power, SBI, Siemens, Tata Communication, Tata Power, Tata
Steel, Tech Mahindra




                                                               Keynote Capitals Ltd.
              The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                              www.keynotecapitals.com
NOTE:

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS
SMA – Simple Moving Average
EMA – Exponential Moving Average
WMA – Weighted Moving Average




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    This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be
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    required to observe these restrictions.
    This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based
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    jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote
    Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment
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                                                       Keynote Capitals Ltd.
          The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                      www.keynotecapitals.com

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Keynote technicals daily report for 121112

  • 1. Daily Technical Outlook 12th November 2012 Indices * Close % Chg. Markets reel under pressure BSE SENSEX 18683.68 -0.86 S&P CNX NIFTY 5686.25 -0.91 Mirroring the weak global market cues, the domestic markets NIFTY NOV. FUT. 5720.60 -0.77 witnessed a subdue opening. Sustained selling pressure was India VIX 14.37 1.05 witnessed as markets drifted lower. The markets failed to show any resilience against selling pressure as buying S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels support remained weak. The markets ended the day with Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 modest losses to close near the lows for the day. The top Support 5665 5554 5447 losers for the day were SBI, Tata Steel, ONGC, IDFC, Sesa Resistance 5747 5816 5885 Goa, BHEL, Ambuaj Cements, Siemens, NTPC and JP Associates. Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY 50 Day SMA 5593.93 Technically, the market breadth remained negative, 100 Day SMA 5422.77 amidst higher volumes, which is a negative sign for the 200 Day SMA 5311.20 ◄Positive markets. The prevailing negative technical conditions continued to put pressure on the bourses. These Market Breadth * BSE NSE conditions still hold good. The RSI has slipped below its Advances 1122 340 average. Moreover, the Stochastic and KST is already Declines 1733 812 slipped below their respective averages. All these Same 123 43 negative conditions are likely to lead to further selling Total 2978 1195 pressure. However, prevailing technical positives also A/D Ratio 0.65 : 1 0.42 : 1 hold good and would help in supporting the markets at lower levels. The MACD is placed above its average and Volume (Lacs Shares) * has also moved in the positive territory. Moreover, the 09/11/12 08/11/12 % Chg. KST is still placed in the positive territory, which augurs BSE 2849 2563 11.16 well for the markets. The Nifty remains placed above its 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA. More so the NSE 6762 6838 -1.12 Nifty’s 50-day SMA remains placed above Nifty’s 100-day Total 9611 9401 2.23 SMA and 200-day SMA, the later being called the ‘Golden Turnover ( ` Crores) * Cross breakout’. These positive conditions would lead to 09/11/12 08/11/12 % Chg. regular bouts of short covering and buying support. The ADX line, +DI line and –DI line are moving sideways, BSE 2475.58 2606.97 -5.04 indicating a range bound trend. The market sentiment NSE 10888.54 11132.51 -2.19 remains cautious. The Nifty has closed below the 5747 NSE F&O 132293.41 112092.67 18.02 level for the second day in row. Now, it is important that Total 145657.53 125832.15 15.76 the Nifty moves and sustains above the 5747 level for buying support to emerge. In the meanwhile the markets F&O Contracts Traded (NSE) * would take cues from the global markets, earnings % Chg. 09/11/12 08/11/12 season, Rupee and the crude prices. The support levels for Index Fut. 341381 286665 19.09 Nifty are placed at 5665, 5554 and 5447 The Nifty faces Stock Fut. 594435 559475 6.25 resistance at 5747, 5816, 5885, 5910 and 5945 levels. Index Opt. 3173347 2679873 18.41 Stock Opt. 523969 358474 46.17 Total 4633132 3884487 16.96 NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 2. Jaldi 5 (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days) Stop Initiation Stop Loss Target Stock Close Action Price Loss * (%) Target (%) Remarks Apollo Tyre Fut 80.65 Sell Below 80.40 82.50 2.61 76 5.47 Dabur Fut 128.75 Sell Below 128.00 130.25 1.76 123 3.91 Colgate 1327.55 Buy Above 1331.00 1311.00 1.50 1375.00 3.31 * Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis. Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support Indices Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3 BSE SENSEX 18684 18745 18833 18983 19221 18595 18507 18269 S&P CNX NIFTY 5686 5705 5733 5779 5853 5659 5631 5557 NIFTY NOV. FUT. 5721 5735 5768 5815 5894 5688 5656 5576 Stocks To Watch Out Today Colgate, FT, Havells, HDFC, HDFC bank, IB realestate, IDFC, Indusinfd bank, Tata Global, Yes Bank Aban offshore, Apollo Tyre, BPCL, Dabur, GAIL, GMR Infra, Godrej Inds; GVK, India Cement, JSW Energy, L&T, ONGC, Petronet, PFC, PTC, ranbaxy, Rel. Capital, Reliance, Rel. Power, SBI, Siemens, Tata Communication, Tata Power, Tata Steel, Tech Mahindra Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 3. NOTE: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS SMA – Simple Moving Average EMA – Exponential Moving Average WMA – Weighted Moving Average Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent. Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com