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Daily Technical Outlook

                                                                                                                    30th July 2012
         Indices *          Close          % Chg.
 BSE SENSEX                16839.19          1.20
                                                                        Markets Lack Strength
 S&P CNX NIFTY              5099.85          1.13
                                                       Mirroring the positive global market cues the domestic
 NIFTY AUG. FUT.             5123.55         0.83
                                                       markets witnessed a firm opening. Sustained buying support
 India VIX                   16.44           0.42      was witnessed in the morning session, which also led to short
        S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels                 covering. However profit taking and selling pressure was
                                                       witnessed in the afternoon trade and markets came off the
                 Level 1    Level 2         Level 3
                                                       highs for the day to trade below the 5100 level. However,
Support           5047       4950            4859
                                                       markets managed to claw back from the lows for the day. The
Resistance        5104       5250            5333      markets ended the day with moderate gains to close near the
 Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY                  lows for the day, sustaining above its 200-day SMA. The top
50 Day SMA                  5106.17
                                                       gainers for the day were DLF, Bharti Airtel, Hindalco, GAIL,
                                                       PNB, HDFC, Sesa Goa, Rel. Infra, BPCL and Coal India.
100 Day SMA                 5153.72
200 Day SMA                 5103.48        â—„Critical   Technically, the market breadth remained negative
                                                       amidst lower volumes. The global market cues are
   Market Breadth *          BSE             NSE
                                                       positive. The domestic markets are likely to witness a
Advances                     1060             492
                                                       firm opening. The Stochastic being placed in the over
Declines                     1703             989      sold zone led to the pull back rally. The prevailing
Same                          129               70     technical positives still hold good. The Stochastic has
Total                        2892            1551      moved above its average but is still placed in the over
A/D Ratio                   0.62 : 1        0.50 : 1   sold zone. Moreover, the Nifty’s 50-day SMA has moved
                                                       above Nifty’s 200-day SMA. These positives would lead
             Volume (Lacs Shares)      *               to intermediate bouts of short covering and selective
               27/07/12     26/07/12        % Chg.     buying support. However, the prevailing technical
BSE              2208        2141            3.13      negatives continue to hold good. The Nifty remains
NSE              5576        9265           -39.81     placed below its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day SMA. The
Total            7784        11406          -31.75     MACD, RSI and KST all remain placed below their
                                                       respective averages. Further, the MACD and KST are
             Turnover ( ` Crores)      *               placed in the negative territory and warn of impending
               27/07/12     26/07/12        % Chg.     selling pressure. The Nifty’s 50-day SMA remains placed
BSE             2513.42     2174.96          15.56     below its 100-day SMA. These negative technical
NSE             9345.22    13040.68         -28.34
                                                       conditions would continue to prompt selling pressure at
                                                       regular intervals. The –DI line has moved below the 30
NSE F&O        106097.78   208719.32        -49.17
                                                       level indicating sellers have covered their short
Total          117956.42   223934.96        -47.33
                                                       positions. The market sentiment remains negative. Now
         F&O Contracts Traded (NSE)         *          it is important that the Nifty moves and sustains above
               27/07/12     26/07/12        % Chg.
                                                       its 200-day SMA on a closing basis otherwise increased
                                                       selling pressure is likely to be witnessed. The markets
Index Fut.      551857      781532          -29.39
                                                       would witness intermediate bouts of volatility ahead of
Stock Fut.      577784      1224052         -52.80
                                                       RBI’s monetary policy next week. In the meanwhile the
Index Opt.     2772782      5895266         -52.97     markets would take cues from the earnings season,
Stock Opt.      221229      250481          -11.68     Rupee, global markets and the crude prices. The support
Total          4123652      8151331         -38.67     levels for Nifty are placed at 5047, 5000, 4950 and 4859. The
NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE
                                                       Nifty faces resistance at the 5104, 5250, 5333, 5379 and
                                                       5464 levels.
Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net                  Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in

                                                             Keynote Capitals Ltd.
                                th
                     The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                            www.keynotecapitals.com
Jaldi 5
                                    (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days)
                                                                                     Stop
                                                     Initiation       Stop           Loss                  Target
       Stock             Close         Action          Price         Loss *           (%)      Target       (%)        Remarks
                                                                                                                     TGT of 101
                                                                                                                     Achieved
                                                                                                                     given Buy @
                                                                                                                     107.35 on
Andhra Bank Fut          101.00       Sell Below           100.00     102.25          2.25         95         5.00   25/07/12


ACC                     1293.75       Buy Above           1296.00    1274.00          1.70       1345         3.78
Dabur                     118.70   Buy Above         119.00           116.25          2.31        125         5.04
 * Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis.



                                                              Intra-day Resistance                      Intra-day Support
       Indices           Close         Pivot Point           R1       R2         R3               S1           S2         S3
BSE SENSEX                  16839               16858        16956      17073          17287       16742       16644       16430
S&P CNX NIFTY                5100                  5109       5141        5182          5254        5068        5037        4964
NIFTY AUG. FUT.              5124                  5133       5170        5217          5301        5086        5049        4964




                                                             Keynote Capitals Ltd.
                              th
                   The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                           www.keynotecapitals.com
Stocks To Watch Out Today
ABB, ACC, Ambuja Cement, Dabur, HCL Tech; Piramal Healthcare, Powergrid, Sun Pharma, Syndicate Bank, Tata Motors,
Ultratech, Yes Bank
AB Nuvo, Adani Enterprises, Adani Poertss, Allahabad Bank, Andhra Bank, Ashok Leyland, Bajaj Hind; BoB, BoI, BHEL,
Canara bank, DCB, Dena Bank, DLF, Hero Motorcorp; Hexaware, IDBI Bank, IDFC, Indian Bank, IOB, IOC, IRB, JP,
Associates, Kotak Bank, Mcleod Russel, Oil India, ONGC, OBC, Pantaloon Retail, RCOM, Renuka Sugars, SBI, UCO Bank,
Union Bank, United Spirits, Vijaya Bank, VIP, Volta, Welcorp

NOTE:

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS
SMA – Simple Moving Average
EMA – Exponential Moving Average
WMA – Weighted Moving Average




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      Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment
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                                                           Keynote Capitals Ltd.
                              th
                   The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                         www.keynotecapitals.com

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Daily Technical Outlook

  • 1. Daily Technical Outlook 30th July 2012 Indices * Close % Chg. BSE SENSEX 16839.19 1.20 Markets Lack Strength S&P CNX NIFTY 5099.85 1.13 Mirroring the positive global market cues the domestic NIFTY AUG. FUT. 5123.55 0.83 markets witnessed a firm opening. Sustained buying support India VIX 16.44 0.42 was witnessed in the morning session, which also led to short S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels covering. However profit taking and selling pressure was witnessed in the afternoon trade and markets came off the Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 highs for the day to trade below the 5100 level. However, Support 5047 4950 4859 markets managed to claw back from the lows for the day. The Resistance 5104 5250 5333 markets ended the day with moderate gains to close near the Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY lows for the day, sustaining above its 200-day SMA. The top 50 Day SMA 5106.17 gainers for the day were DLF, Bharti Airtel, Hindalco, GAIL, PNB, HDFC, Sesa Goa, Rel. Infra, BPCL and Coal India. 100 Day SMA 5153.72 200 Day SMA 5103.48 â—„Critical Technically, the market breadth remained negative amidst lower volumes. The global market cues are Market Breadth * BSE NSE positive. The domestic markets are likely to witness a Advances 1060 492 firm opening. The Stochastic being placed in the over Declines 1703 989 sold zone led to the pull back rally. The prevailing Same 129 70 technical positives still hold good. The Stochastic has Total 2892 1551 moved above its average but is still placed in the over A/D Ratio 0.62 : 1 0.50 : 1 sold zone. Moreover, the Nifty’s 50-day SMA has moved above Nifty’s 200-day SMA. These positives would lead Volume (Lacs Shares) * to intermediate bouts of short covering and selective 27/07/12 26/07/12 % Chg. buying support. However, the prevailing technical BSE 2208 2141 3.13 negatives continue to hold good. The Nifty remains NSE 5576 9265 -39.81 placed below its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day SMA. The Total 7784 11406 -31.75 MACD, RSI and KST all remain placed below their respective averages. Further, the MACD and KST are Turnover ( ` Crores) * placed in the negative territory and warn of impending 27/07/12 26/07/12 % Chg. selling pressure. The Nifty’s 50-day SMA remains placed BSE 2513.42 2174.96 15.56 below its 100-day SMA. These negative technical NSE 9345.22 13040.68 -28.34 conditions would continue to prompt selling pressure at regular intervals. The –DI line has moved below the 30 NSE F&O 106097.78 208719.32 -49.17 level indicating sellers have covered their short Total 117956.42 223934.96 -47.33 positions. The market sentiment remains negative. Now F&O Contracts Traded (NSE) * it is important that the Nifty moves and sustains above 27/07/12 26/07/12 % Chg. its 200-day SMA on a closing basis otherwise increased selling pressure is likely to be witnessed. The markets Index Fut. 551857 781532 -29.39 would witness intermediate bouts of volatility ahead of Stock Fut. 577784 1224052 -52.80 RBI’s monetary policy next week. In the meanwhile the Index Opt. 2772782 5895266 -52.97 markets would take cues from the earnings season, Stock Opt. 221229 250481 -11.68 Rupee, global markets and the crude prices. The support Total 4123652 8151331 -38.67 levels for Nifty are placed at 5047, 5000, 4950 and 4859. The NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE Nifty faces resistance at the 5104, 5250, 5333, 5379 and 5464 levels. Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in Keynote Capitals Ltd. th The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 2. Jaldi 5 (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days) Stop Initiation Stop Loss Target Stock Close Action Price Loss * (%) Target (%) Remarks TGT of 101 Achieved given Buy @ 107.35 on Andhra Bank Fut 101.00 Sell Below 100.00 102.25 2.25 95 5.00 25/07/12 ACC 1293.75 Buy Above 1296.00 1274.00 1.70 1345 3.78 Dabur 118.70 Buy Above 119.00 116.25 2.31 125 5.04 * Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis. Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support Indices Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3 BSE SENSEX 16839 16858 16956 17073 17287 16742 16644 16430 S&P CNX NIFTY 5100 5109 5141 5182 5254 5068 5037 4964 NIFTY AUG. FUT. 5124 5133 5170 5217 5301 5086 5049 4964 Keynote Capitals Ltd. th The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 3. Stocks To Watch Out Today ABB, ACC, Ambuja Cement, Dabur, HCL Tech; Piramal Healthcare, Powergrid, Sun Pharma, Syndicate Bank, Tata Motors, Ultratech, Yes Bank AB Nuvo, Adani Enterprises, Adani Poertss, Allahabad Bank, Andhra Bank, Ashok Leyland, Bajaj Hind; BoB, BoI, BHEL, Canara bank, DCB, Dena Bank, DLF, Hero Motorcorp; Hexaware, IDBI Bank, IDFC, Indian Bank, IOB, IOC, IRB, JP, Associates, Kotak Bank, Mcleod Russel, Oil India, ONGC, OBC, Pantaloon Retail, RCOM, Renuka Sugars, SBI, UCO Bank, Union Bank, United Spirits, Vijaya Bank, VIP, Volta, Welcorp NOTE: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS SMA – Simple Moving Average EMA – Exponential Moving Average WMA – Weighted Moving Average Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent. Keynote Capitals Ltd. th The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com