The domestic stock markets opened flat but ended the day lower due to increased selling pressure. Key indices like the BSE Sensex and NIFTY 50 closed over 2% lower. Technical indicators suggest the markets may continue to face downward pressure in the near future. Support levels are placed at 4563, 4481 and 4353 for the Nifty, while resistance levels are at 4747, 4987 and 5037.

1. Daily Technical Outlook
19th December 2011
Indices * Close % Chg.
The domestic markets witnessed a flat but positive opening.
BSE SENSEX 15491.35 -2.18 Steady buying support and short covering was witnessed
S&P CNX NIFTY 4651.60 -2.00 helping markets move higher but the volumes recorded
NIFTY DEC. FUT. 4643.15 -2.40 remained lackluster. The markets moved higher in the noon
India VIX 29.69 3.05 session as RBI maintained a status quo in its monetary policy
and signaled a pause to rate hikes. However, markets failed
S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels
to sustain higher and fell sharply. Increased selling pressure
Level 1 Level 2 Level 3
was witnessed as markets failed to show any resilience. The
Support 4563 4481 4353 markets ended the day with large losses to close near the
Resistance 4747 4987 5037 lows for the day. The top losers for the day were Sterlite, Axis
Bank. L&T, PNB, HDFC Bank, TCS, Reliance and Siemens.
Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY
50 Day SMA 4997.02 Technically, the market breadth remained negative
◄Negative
100 Day SMA 5063.04 amidst higher volumes, which is a negative sign for the
200 Day SMA 5316.96 ◄Negative markets. The global market set of cues are negative. The
domestic markets are likely to witness a gap down
Volume (Lacs Shares) * opening. The prevailing technical negatives continue to
16/12/11 15/12/11 % Chg. weigh on the market sentiment. The KST and RSI remain
BSE 2202 1844 19.41 placed below their respective averages. Further the KST
NSE 6627 6041 9.70 and MACD are placed in the negative and warn of
Total 8829 7885 11.97 impending selling pressure. The Nifty continues to trade
below its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA
Turnover ( ` Crores) * remains placed below the 100-day SMA. All these
15/12/11 15/12/11 % Chg. conditions would lead to further selling pressure. The
BSE 2187.93 2041.89 7.15 ADX and +DI line are moving lower, while the -DI line is
NSE 11057.56 10931.12 1.16 moving higher and is currently placed at 30.58 indicating
NSE F&O 182602.40 138306.95 32.03
sellers have an upper hand. The Nifty has also formed a
head and shoulder pattern, which would result in further
Total 195847.89 151279.96 29.46
selling pressure. The only silver linings for the markets
F&O Contracts Traded (NSE) * remain the Stochastic being placed above its average
16/12/11 15/12/11 % Chg.
and in the over sold zone, and the MACD, which is placed
above its average and is on verge of moving in the
Index Fut. 973540 716530 35.87
positive territory. Both these conditions would lead to
Stock Fut. 679747 541021 25.64
intermediate bouts of short covering and buying support.
Index Opt. 5823957 4424126 31.64 The markets sentiment has turned negative. The markets
Stock Opt. 219831 172043 27.78 are likely to witness further fall as Nifty has breached the
Total 7697075 5853720 24.73 neckline of Head and Shoulders pattern and it could test
the 4353 level in near future. In the meanwhile the
Market Breadth (NSE) *
markets would take cues from the global markets and
Advances 314 crude prices. The support levels for Nifty are placed at 4563,
Declines 1166 4481 and 4353. The Nifty faces resistance at the 4747, 4987,
Same 70 5037, 5161, 5230 and 5360 levels.
Total 1550
A/D Ratio 0.27 : 1
NOTE - *- Source – BSE & NSE
Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technicals), Email Id sanjay@keynotecapitals.net Yahoo Chat Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in
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2. Short Term Trading Ideas Based On Technical Analysis (5 - 7 Days)
Stop
Initiation Stop Loss Target
Stock Close Action Price Loss * (%) Target (%) Remarks
Arvind 69.05 Sell Below 68.50 70.10 2.34 65.00 5.11
TGT of 240
Achieved
given SELL
@ 261 on
BHEL 240.40 Sell Below 239.00 246.75 3.24 222.00 7.11 12/12/11
Renuka Sugar 23.90 Sell Below 23.00 24.80 7.83 19.00 17.39
TGT of 260
Achieved
given SELL
@ 277 on
Yes Bank 256.50 Sell Below 254.00 260.30 2.48 240.00 5.51 12/12/11
* Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on Closing basis.
Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support
Indices Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
BSE SENSEX 15491 15662 15898 16306 16949 15255 15018 14374
S&P CNX NIFTY 4652 4700 4771 4890 5081 4580 4509 4318
NIFTY DEC. FUT. 4643 4703 4781 4918 5133 4565 4487 4272
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4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
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