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Daily Commodity Outlook

                                                                                                                      15th November 2011

                                                                 MCX GOLD (DEC 11) - Gold opened higher at 28930. It moved
                     Gold           Silver         Crude
                   (5 Dec-11)    (5 Dec-11)      (17 Nov-11)
                                                                 higher to touch 29057 but failed to sustain higher. It moved lower to
                                                                 an intra-day low of 28880. It ended the day with marginal gains to
 Open                  28,930         57,900          4,941      close at 28938.
 High                  29,057         58,095          4,970
                                                                 The RSI is placed above its average, which would lead to buying
 Low                   28,880         57,125          4,896      support at lower levels. However, the Stochastic has breached its
 Close                 28,938         57,215          4,919      average. Moreso, both are also placed in the over bought zone,
                                                                 which would lead to intermediate bouts of profit taking and selling
 Prev. Close           28,886         57,694          4,942
                                                                 pressure. The ADX and -DI line are moving sideways, while +DI
 % Change               0.18%         -0.83%         -0.47%      line is placed at 35.09 level, indicating buyers still have an upper
                                                                 hand. MCX GOLD faces resistance at 29000, 29057 and 29123
Source – MCX
                                                                 levels, while the supports are placed at 28925, 28152, 27954,
                                                                 26768 and 26000 levels.
                    Volume (In 000's)

                   14/11/2011    12/11/2011          % Chg.      MCX SILVER (DEC 11) - Silver opened higher at 57900. It moved
                                                                 higher to touch an intra-day high of 58095. However, it failed to
Gold (grms)          35,808.0        1,761.0      1933.39%       sustain higher and moved lower to touch an intra-day low of 57125.
Silver (kgs)           1,595.0            47.7    3245.88%       It ended the day with modest losses to close at 57215.
Crude (bbl)          20,943.8            471.3    4343.84%
                                                                 The Stochastic has again moved above its average, which would
Source – MCX                                                     lead to buying support at lower levels. However, the RSI has
                                                                 breached its average. Moreso, both are also placed in the over
                   Turnover (In Lacs)                            bought zone, which would lead to intermediate bouts of profit
                                                                 taking and selling pressure. The ADX, -DI and +DI line are moving
                   14/11/2011    12/11/2011          % Chg.      sideways indicating a range bound trend. MCX Silver faces
Gold               1,037,330.7      50,896.1      1938.13%       resistance at 61708, 61884 and 64605 levels, while the supports
                                                                 are placed at 54754, 52725 and 52365 levels.
Silver              919,440.0       27,523.5      3240.56%

Crude              1,033,458.5      23,283.4      4338.62%       MCX CRUDE (NOV 11) - Crude opened flat at 4941 level. It moved
                                                                 higher to touch an intra-day high of 4970. But it failed to sustain
Source – MCX                                                     higher and moved lower to touch an intra-day low of 4896. It ended
                                                                 the day with modest losses to close at 4919.
               Global Market (Nymex - $)

                   15/11/2011    14/11/2011          % Chg.
                                                                 The RSI is placed above its averages, which would lead to buying
                                                                 support. However, the Stochastic has once again slipped below its
Gold (oz)            1,779.20       1,778.40          0.04%      average. Moreso, both are placed in the over bought zone which
Silver (oz)             34.24         34.024          0.63%      would lead to intermediate bouts of profit taking and selling
                                                                 pressure. The ADX and –DI line are moving sideways, but +DI line
Crude (bbl)             98.24            98.14        0.10%      is still placed at 38.69 indicating buyers have an upper hand. It
Dollar Index            77.55            77.54        0.01%      faces resistance at 4939, 5047 and 5098 levels, while the supports
                                                                 are placed at 4879, 4618, 4493 and 4291 levels.
Source – www.cmegroup.com

                                                                       Intra-day Resistance                           Intra-day Support
 Commodities                Close            Pivot Point          R1            R2              R3             S1             S2            S3

 CRUDE NOV 11                     4919                4928          4961           5002           5076           4887            4854        4780

 GOLD DEC 11                     28938               28958        29037           29135          29312          28860          28781        28604

 SILVER DEC 11                   57215               57478        57832           58448          59418          56862          56508        55538


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            4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
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US Economic Calendar:

       Tuesday                    Wednesday                     Thursday                       Monday                       Tuesday
       Nov. 15                     Nov. 16                       Nov. 17                       Nov. 21                      Nov. 22

Producer Price Index       Consumer Price Index          Housing Statistic            Existing Home Sales           GDP Data

                                                                                      Chicago Fed National
Retail Sales               Industrial Production         Jobless Claims                                             Corporate Profits
                                                                                      Activity Index
Empire State Mfg                                         Philadelphia Fed
                           Housing Market Index                                       2-Yr Note Auction             5-Yr Note Auction
Survey                                                   Survey
                           EIA Petroleum Status          EIA Natural Gas
Business Inventories
                           Report                        Report




                                                            Keynote Capitals Ltd.
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         4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                          www.keynotecapitals.com
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                                                             Keynote Capitals Ltd.
          th
         4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                          www.keynotecapitals.com

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Keynote commodity daily report 151111

  • 1. Daily Commodity Outlook 15th November 2011 MCX GOLD (DEC 11) - Gold opened higher at 28930. It moved Gold Silver Crude (5 Dec-11) (5 Dec-11) (17 Nov-11) higher to touch 29057 but failed to sustain higher. It moved lower to an intra-day low of 28880. It ended the day with marginal gains to Open 28,930 57,900 4,941 close at 28938. High 29,057 58,095 4,970 The RSI is placed above its average, which would lead to buying Low 28,880 57,125 4,896 support at lower levels. However, the Stochastic has breached its Close 28,938 57,215 4,919 average. Moreso, both are also placed in the over bought zone, which would lead to intermediate bouts of profit taking and selling Prev. Close 28,886 57,694 4,942 pressure. The ADX and -DI line are moving sideways, while +DI % Change 0.18% -0.83% -0.47% line is placed at 35.09 level, indicating buyers still have an upper hand. MCX GOLD faces resistance at 29000, 29057 and 29123 Source – MCX levels, while the supports are placed at 28925, 28152, 27954, 26768 and 26000 levels. Volume (In 000's) 14/11/2011 12/11/2011 % Chg. MCX SILVER (DEC 11) - Silver opened higher at 57900. It moved higher to touch an intra-day high of 58095. However, it failed to Gold (grms) 35,808.0 1,761.0 1933.39% sustain higher and moved lower to touch an intra-day low of 57125. Silver (kgs) 1,595.0 47.7 3245.88% It ended the day with modest losses to close at 57215. Crude (bbl) 20,943.8 471.3 4343.84% The Stochastic has again moved above its average, which would Source – MCX lead to buying support at lower levels. However, the RSI has breached its average. Moreso, both are also placed in the over Turnover (In Lacs) bought zone, which would lead to intermediate bouts of profit taking and selling pressure. The ADX, -DI and +DI line are moving 14/11/2011 12/11/2011 % Chg. sideways indicating a range bound trend. MCX Silver faces Gold 1,037,330.7 50,896.1 1938.13% resistance at 61708, 61884 and 64605 levels, while the supports are placed at 54754, 52725 and 52365 levels. Silver 919,440.0 27,523.5 3240.56% Crude 1,033,458.5 23,283.4 4338.62% MCX CRUDE (NOV 11) - Crude opened flat at 4941 level. It moved higher to touch an intra-day high of 4970. But it failed to sustain Source – MCX higher and moved lower to touch an intra-day low of 4896. It ended the day with modest losses to close at 4919. Global Market (Nymex - $) 15/11/2011 14/11/2011 % Chg. The RSI is placed above its averages, which would lead to buying support. However, the Stochastic has once again slipped below its Gold (oz) 1,779.20 1,778.40 0.04% average. Moreso, both are placed in the over bought zone which Silver (oz) 34.24 34.024 0.63% would lead to intermediate bouts of profit taking and selling pressure. The ADX and –DI line are moving sideways, but +DI line Crude (bbl) 98.24 98.14 0.10% is still placed at 38.69 indicating buyers have an upper hand. It Dollar Index 77.55 77.54 0.01% faces resistance at 4939, 5047 and 5098 levels, while the supports are placed at 4879, 4618, 4493 and 4291 levels. Source – www.cmegroup.com Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support Commodities Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3 CRUDE NOV 11 4919 4928 4961 5002 5076 4887 4854 4780 GOLD DEC 11 28938 28958 29037 29135 29312 28860 28781 28604 SILVER DEC 11 57215 57478 57832 58448 59418 56862 56508 55538 Keynote Capitals Ltd. th 4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 2. US Economic Calendar: Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Monday Tuesday Nov. 15 Nov. 16 Nov. 17 Nov. 21 Nov. 22 Producer Price Index Consumer Price Index Housing Statistic Existing Home Sales GDP Data Chicago Fed National Retail Sales Industrial Production Jobless Claims Corporate Profits Activity Index Empire State Mfg Philadelphia Fed Housing Market Index 2-Yr Note Auction 5-Yr Note Auction Survey Survey EIA Petroleum Status EIA Natural Gas Business Inventories Report Report Keynote Capitals Ltd. th 4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 3. Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent. Keynote Capitals Ltd. th 4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com