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Daily Technical Outlook

                                                                                                         16th November 2012
         Indices *             Close          % Chg.               Markets respect 50-day SMA support
 BSE SENSEX                    18471.37             -0.79
 S&P CNX NIFTY                  5631.00             -0.63     Mirroring the weak global market cues the domestic markets
 NIFTY NOV. FUT.                5649.15             -0.56     opened on a negative note. The markets drifted during the
 India VIX                        15.53             4.15      course of the week on back of profit taking and selling
                                                              pressure. However, the Nifty managed to take support
        S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels                        around its 50-day SMA. Short covering at lower levels along
                 Level 1       Level 2         Level 3        with selective buying support helped the markets come off
Support           5554          5447            5421          the lows for the day. It ended the day with moderate losses to
Resistance        5665          5747            5816          close near the highs for the day. The top losers for the day
                                                              were Ultratech, ITC, Tata Steel, Jindal Steel, Grasim, TCS,
 Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY                         Sesa Goa, Wipro, Infosys Tech and Tata Motors.
50 Day SMA                     5617.02
100 Day SMA                    5438.64                        Technically, the market breadth remained negative. The
200 Day SMA                    5318.85        ◄Positive       prevailing negative technical conditions continued to
                                                              weigh on the market sentiment. These conditions still
   Market Breadth *             BSE             NSE           hold good. The Stochastic, KST and RSI all are still
Advances                            1197               401    placed below their respective averages. Moreover, the
Declines                            1632               707    KST remains placed in the negative and warns of
Same                                   96                36   impending selling pressure. However, a few technical
Total                               2925             1144     positives still hold good and would help in supporting
A/D Ratio                        0.73 : 1          0.57 : 1
                                                              the markets at lower levels. The MACD is placed above
                                                              its average and is also placed in the positive territory,
             Volume (Lacs Shares)         *                   which augurs well for the markets. The Nifty remains
               15/11/12        13/11/12        % Chg.         placed above its 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day
BSE                    2386         1194            99.83
                                                              SMA. More so the Nifty’s 50-day SMA remains placed
                                                              above Nifty’s 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA, the later
NSE                    8068         2550           216.45
                                                              being called the ‘Golden Cross breakout’. These positive
Total                 10454         3744           179.26
                                                              conditions would lead to regular bouts of short covering
             Turnover ( ` Crores)         *                   and buying support. The ADX line, +DI line and –DI line
               15/11/12        13/11/12        % Chg.
                                                              are moving sideways, indicating a range bound trend.
                                                              The market sentiment remains cautious Now, it is
BSE                  2526.45      973.61           159.49
                                                              important that the Nifty witnesses buying support at
NSE              13233.72        2951.03           348.44
                                                              lower levels and sustains above the 50-day SMA for
NSE F&O         113526.90       26595.23           326.87     buying support to emerge. In the meanwhile the markets
Total           129287.07       30519.87           323.62     would take cues from the global markets, Rupee and the
                                                              crude prices. The support levels for Nifty are placed at
         F&O Contracts Traded (NSE)            *
                                                              5554, 5447 and 5421. The Nifty faces resistance at 5665,
                                               % Chg.
               15/11/12        13/11/12
                                                              5747, 5816, 5885, 5910 and 5945 levels.
Index Fut.           279644       81284            244.03
Stock Fut.           505088      115719            336.48
Index Opt.        2849299        664896            328.53
Stock Opt.           313051       57664            442.89
Total             3947082        919563            265.32

NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE


Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net                   Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in


                                                                    Keynote Capitals Ltd.
              The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                                   www.keynotecapitals.com
Jaldi 5 (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days)
                                                                                    Stop
                                                     Initiation       Stop          Loss                     Target
      Stock             Close           Action         Price         Loss *          (%)       Target         (%)                Remarks
AB Nuvo                  968.10        Buy Above           970           954.00      1.65          1005           3.61
Ashok Leyland             28.25        Buy Above            29            27.50      5.17            32          10.34
BHEL                   235.35   Buy Above            236      231.95                 1.72           245           3.81
* Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis.

                                                              Intra-day Resistance                           Intra-day Support
      Indices             Close           Pivot Point        R1       R2         R3                     S1          S2         S3
BSE SENSEX                   18471                 18491      18574         18676          18861        18389            18306       18122
S&P CNX NIFTY                   5631                5629          5654       5677           5725          5606            5581        5533
NIFTY NOV. FUT.                 5649                5644          5667       5685           5727          5626            5602        5561




                                             Stocks To Watch Out Today
AB Nuvo, Adani Enterprises, Bharti Airtel, BHEL, Biocon, Bombay Dying, Cairn India, Dabur, Dish TV, DLF, FT, HUL, Idea,
IDFC, India Info; IGL, IRB Infra, Jet Airways, Kotak Bank, KTK Bank, Maruti, McLeod Russel, NHPC, OBC, RCOM; Sun TV,
Tata Coffee, Tata Global, Titan
Ambuja Cements, Asian Paints, BPCL, Cipla, Cummins, Dr. Reddys, Grasim, GSPL, Hero Motocorp, Hexaware, HPCL, Hind.
Zinc, ICICI Bank, India Cement, Infosys Tech; ITC, Jindal Saw, Jindal Steel, Jubilant Food, LIC Hsg, Lupin, M&M, NMDC,
NTPC, Oil India, ONGC, Opto Circuit, Orchid Chemicals, Pantaloon Retail, Petronet, PFC, Sesa Goa, Sterlite, Tata Steel,
TCS, Tech Mahindra, Ultratech Cemco, Voltas, Yes Bank


                                                            Keynote Capitals Ltd.
              The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                           www.keynotecapitals.com
NOTE:

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS
SMA – Simple Moving Average
EMA – Exponential Moving Average
WMA – Weighted Moving Average




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    Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment
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                                                       Keynote Capitals Ltd.
          The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                      www.keynotecapitals.com

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Keynote technicals daily report for 161112

  • 1. Daily Technical Outlook 16th November 2012 Indices * Close % Chg. Markets respect 50-day SMA support BSE SENSEX 18471.37 -0.79 S&P CNX NIFTY 5631.00 -0.63 Mirroring the weak global market cues the domestic markets NIFTY NOV. FUT. 5649.15 -0.56 opened on a negative note. The markets drifted during the India VIX 15.53 4.15 course of the week on back of profit taking and selling pressure. However, the Nifty managed to take support S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels around its 50-day SMA. Short covering at lower levels along Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 with selective buying support helped the markets come off Support 5554 5447 5421 the lows for the day. It ended the day with moderate losses to Resistance 5665 5747 5816 close near the highs for the day. The top losers for the day were Ultratech, ITC, Tata Steel, Jindal Steel, Grasim, TCS, Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY Sesa Goa, Wipro, Infosys Tech and Tata Motors. 50 Day SMA 5617.02 100 Day SMA 5438.64 Technically, the market breadth remained negative. The 200 Day SMA 5318.85 ◄Positive prevailing negative technical conditions continued to weigh on the market sentiment. These conditions still Market Breadth * BSE NSE hold good. The Stochastic, KST and RSI all are still Advances 1197 401 placed below their respective averages. Moreover, the Declines 1632 707 KST remains placed in the negative and warns of Same 96 36 impending selling pressure. However, a few technical Total 2925 1144 positives still hold good and would help in supporting A/D Ratio 0.73 : 1 0.57 : 1 the markets at lower levels. The MACD is placed above its average and is also placed in the positive territory, Volume (Lacs Shares) * which augurs well for the markets. The Nifty remains 15/11/12 13/11/12 % Chg. placed above its 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day BSE 2386 1194 99.83 SMA. More so the Nifty’s 50-day SMA remains placed above Nifty’s 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA, the later NSE 8068 2550 216.45 being called the ‘Golden Cross breakout’. These positive Total 10454 3744 179.26 conditions would lead to regular bouts of short covering Turnover ( ` Crores) * and buying support. The ADX line, +DI line and –DI line 15/11/12 13/11/12 % Chg. are moving sideways, indicating a range bound trend. The market sentiment remains cautious Now, it is BSE 2526.45 973.61 159.49 important that the Nifty witnesses buying support at NSE 13233.72 2951.03 348.44 lower levels and sustains above the 50-day SMA for NSE F&O 113526.90 26595.23 326.87 buying support to emerge. In the meanwhile the markets Total 129287.07 30519.87 323.62 would take cues from the global markets, Rupee and the crude prices. The support levels for Nifty are placed at F&O Contracts Traded (NSE) * 5554, 5447 and 5421. The Nifty faces resistance at 5665, % Chg. 15/11/12 13/11/12 5747, 5816, 5885, 5910 and 5945 levels. Index Fut. 279644 81284 244.03 Stock Fut. 505088 115719 336.48 Index Opt. 2849299 664896 328.53 Stock Opt. 313051 57664 442.89 Total 3947082 919563 265.32 NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 2. Jaldi 5 (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days) Stop Initiation Stop Loss Target Stock Close Action Price Loss * (%) Target (%) Remarks AB Nuvo 968.10 Buy Above 970 954.00 1.65 1005 3.61 Ashok Leyland 28.25 Buy Above 29 27.50 5.17 32 10.34 BHEL 235.35 Buy Above 236 231.95 1.72 245 3.81 * Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis. Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support Indices Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3 BSE SENSEX 18471 18491 18574 18676 18861 18389 18306 18122 S&P CNX NIFTY 5631 5629 5654 5677 5725 5606 5581 5533 NIFTY NOV. FUT. 5649 5644 5667 5685 5727 5626 5602 5561 Stocks To Watch Out Today AB Nuvo, Adani Enterprises, Bharti Airtel, BHEL, Biocon, Bombay Dying, Cairn India, Dabur, Dish TV, DLF, FT, HUL, Idea, IDFC, India Info; IGL, IRB Infra, Jet Airways, Kotak Bank, KTK Bank, Maruti, McLeod Russel, NHPC, OBC, RCOM; Sun TV, Tata Coffee, Tata Global, Titan Ambuja Cements, Asian Paints, BPCL, Cipla, Cummins, Dr. Reddys, Grasim, GSPL, Hero Motocorp, Hexaware, HPCL, Hind. Zinc, ICICI Bank, India Cement, Infosys Tech; ITC, Jindal Saw, Jindal Steel, Jubilant Food, LIC Hsg, Lupin, M&M, NMDC, NTPC, Oil India, ONGC, Opto Circuit, Orchid Chemicals, Pantaloon Retail, Petronet, PFC, Sesa Goa, Sterlite, Tata Steel, TCS, Tech Mahindra, Ultratech Cemco, Voltas, Yes Bank Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 3. NOTE: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS SMA – Simple Moving Average EMA – Exponential Moving Average WMA – Weighted Moving Average Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent. Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com