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Daily Technical Outlook

                                                                                                           22nd October 2012
         Indices *             Close          % Chg.                           Markets range bound
 BSE SENSEX                    18682.31             -0.58
 S&P CNX NIFTY                  5684.25             -0.60     Mirroring the weak global market cues the markets witnessed
 NIFTY OCT. FUT.                5688.30             -0.84     a subdue opening. Profit taking and selling pressure was
 India VIX                        14.54             -1.49     witnessed in the opening trade. The markets drifted lower as
                                                              follow up buying support failed to emerge after Thursday’s
        S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels                        rally. The markets failed to show any resilience against
                 Level 1       Level 2         Level 3        selling pressure ahead of the weekends. The markets ended
Support           5630          5607            5526          the day with modest losses to close near lows for the day.
Resistance        5703          5741            5884          The top losers for the day were Jindal Steel, Hindalco, BHEL,
                                                              BPCL, Grasim, GAIL, Ranbaxy, M&M, Tata Power and Rel.
 Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY                         Infra.
50 Day SMA                     5502.52
100 Day SMA                    5327.47                        Technically, the market breadth remained negative,
200 Day SMA                    5256.55        ◄Positive       amidst lower volumes. The prevailing technical
                                                              negatives continued to weigh on the market sentiment.
   Market Breadth *             BSE             NSE           The RSI has again slipped below its average. More over,
Advances                            1275               415    the KST and MACD are still placed below their respective
Declines                            1586               697    averages, which would lead to intermediate bouts of
Same                                 136                 41   profit taking and selling pressure. However, the
Total                               2997             1153     prevailing technical positives also continue to hold good
A/D Ratio                        0.80 : 1          0.60 : 1
                                                              and would support the market at lower levels. The
                                                              Stochastic is still placed above its averages. Moreover,
             Volume (Lacs Shares)         *                   the KST and the MACD are still placed in the positive
               19/10/12        18/10/12        % Chg.         territory, which augurs well for the markets. The Nifty
BSE                    2323         2407             -3.49
                                                              remains placed above its 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA and
                                                              200-day SMA. More so the Nifty’s 50-day SMA remains
NSE                    6617         7267             -8.95
                                                              placed above Nifty’s 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA, the
Total                  8940         9674             -7.59
                                                              later being called the ‘Golden Cross breakout’. These
             Turnover ( ` Crores)         *                   positive conditions would lead to buying support at
               19/10/12        18/10/12        % Chg.
                                                              lower levels. The ADX line, +DI line and –DI line are
                                                              moving lower, indicating range bound trend. Now, it is
BSE                  2190.01     2271.04             -3.57
                                                              important that the markets witness follow up buying
NSE              10616.26       11653.99             -8.90
                                                              support at higher levels for the Nifty to test the 5700-
NSE F&O         167574.92 177947.29                  -5.83    5741 resistance zone. The market sentiment remains
Total           180381.19 191872.32                  -5.99    tentative at higher levels. In the meanwhile the markets
                                                              would take cues from the ongoing earnings season,
         F&O Contracts Traded (NSE)            *
                                                              global markets, Rupee and the crude prices. The support
                                               % Chg.
               19/10/12        18/10/12
                                                              levels for Nifty are placed at 5630, 5607, 5526, and 5448.
Index Fut.           405358      436702              -7.18    The Nifty faces resistance at 5703, 5741, 5884, 5912 and
Stock Fut.           764629      660014             15.85     5945 levels.
Index Opt.        4293049       4703853              -8.73
Stock Opt.           334571      357160              -6.32
Total             5797607       6157729              -7.04

NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE

Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net                   Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in


                                                                   Keynote Capitals Ltd.
              The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                                   www.keynotecapitals.com
Jaldi 5 (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days)
                                                                                 Stop
                                                  Initiation       Stop          Loss                     Target
      Stock            Close        Action          Price         Loss *          (%)       Target         (%)              Remarks
BHEL Fut               241.20      Sell Below           240.00        244.50       1.88         230          4.17
GAIL Fut               361.50      Sell Below           360.00        365.50       1.53         348          3.33


Andhra Bank            114.40   Buy Above         115.00      111.50               3.04         123          6.96
* Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis.

                                                             Intra-day Resistance                         Intra-day Support
      Indices           Close         Pivot Point           R1       R2         R3                   S1          S2         S3
BSE SENSEX                 18682                18688       18764        18846          19004        18606          18530       18372
S&P CNX NIFTY               5684                 5685          5711       5737           5789         5659           5634        5582
NIFTY OCT. FUT.             5688                 5692          5718       5748           5805         5662           5635        5579




                                          Stocks To Watch Out Today
ACC, Adani Power, Apollo Tyre, BHEL, Cairn India, Dabur, Dish TV, GAIL, Hexaware, HUL, Hind. Zinc, India Cement, LIC
Hsg, NCC, NTPC, Opto Circuit, Ranbaxy, SCI, Sun Pharma, Wipro, ZEEL,
Andhra Bank, Axis Bank, Canara Bank, CESC, Godrej Inds; HCL Tech; Hero Motocorp, ITC, Karnataka Bank, Pantaloon
Retail, Petronet, Sun YV, Tata Communication




                                                           Keynote Capitals Ltd.
            The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                          www.keynotecapitals.com
NOTE:

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS
SMA – Simple Moving Average
EMA – Exponential Moving Average
WMA – Weighted Moving Average




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    jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote
    Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment
    objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients.
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                                                       Keynote Capitals Ltd.
          The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                      www.keynotecapitals.com

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Keynote technicals daily report

  • 1. Daily Technical Outlook 22nd October 2012 Indices * Close % Chg. Markets range bound BSE SENSEX 18682.31 -0.58 S&P CNX NIFTY 5684.25 -0.60 Mirroring the weak global market cues the markets witnessed NIFTY OCT. FUT. 5688.30 -0.84 a subdue opening. Profit taking and selling pressure was India VIX 14.54 -1.49 witnessed in the opening trade. The markets drifted lower as follow up buying support failed to emerge after Thursday’s S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels rally. The markets failed to show any resilience against Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 selling pressure ahead of the weekends. The markets ended Support 5630 5607 5526 the day with modest losses to close near lows for the day. Resistance 5703 5741 5884 The top losers for the day were Jindal Steel, Hindalco, BHEL, BPCL, Grasim, GAIL, Ranbaxy, M&M, Tata Power and Rel. Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY Infra. 50 Day SMA 5502.52 100 Day SMA 5327.47 Technically, the market breadth remained negative, 200 Day SMA 5256.55 ◄Positive amidst lower volumes. The prevailing technical negatives continued to weigh on the market sentiment. Market Breadth * BSE NSE The RSI has again slipped below its average. More over, Advances 1275 415 the KST and MACD are still placed below their respective Declines 1586 697 averages, which would lead to intermediate bouts of Same 136 41 profit taking and selling pressure. However, the Total 2997 1153 prevailing technical positives also continue to hold good A/D Ratio 0.80 : 1 0.60 : 1 and would support the market at lower levels. The Stochastic is still placed above its averages. Moreover, Volume (Lacs Shares) * the KST and the MACD are still placed in the positive 19/10/12 18/10/12 % Chg. territory, which augurs well for the markets. The Nifty BSE 2323 2407 -3.49 remains placed above its 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA. More so the Nifty’s 50-day SMA remains NSE 6617 7267 -8.95 placed above Nifty’s 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA, the Total 8940 9674 -7.59 later being called the ‘Golden Cross breakout’. These Turnover ( ` Crores) * positive conditions would lead to buying support at 19/10/12 18/10/12 % Chg. lower levels. The ADX line, +DI line and –DI line are moving lower, indicating range bound trend. Now, it is BSE 2190.01 2271.04 -3.57 important that the markets witness follow up buying NSE 10616.26 11653.99 -8.90 support at higher levels for the Nifty to test the 5700- NSE F&O 167574.92 177947.29 -5.83 5741 resistance zone. The market sentiment remains Total 180381.19 191872.32 -5.99 tentative at higher levels. In the meanwhile the markets would take cues from the ongoing earnings season, F&O Contracts Traded (NSE) * global markets, Rupee and the crude prices. The support % Chg. 19/10/12 18/10/12 levels for Nifty are placed at 5630, 5607, 5526, and 5448. Index Fut. 405358 436702 -7.18 The Nifty faces resistance at 5703, 5741, 5884, 5912 and Stock Fut. 764629 660014 15.85 5945 levels. Index Opt. 4293049 4703853 -8.73 Stock Opt. 334571 357160 -6.32 Total 5797607 6157729 -7.04 NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 2. Jaldi 5 (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days) Stop Initiation Stop Loss Target Stock Close Action Price Loss * (%) Target (%) Remarks BHEL Fut 241.20 Sell Below 240.00 244.50 1.88 230 4.17 GAIL Fut 361.50 Sell Below 360.00 365.50 1.53 348 3.33 Andhra Bank 114.40 Buy Above 115.00 111.50 3.04 123 6.96 * Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis. Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support Indices Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3 BSE SENSEX 18682 18688 18764 18846 19004 18606 18530 18372 S&P CNX NIFTY 5684 5685 5711 5737 5789 5659 5634 5582 NIFTY OCT. FUT. 5688 5692 5718 5748 5805 5662 5635 5579 Stocks To Watch Out Today ACC, Adani Power, Apollo Tyre, BHEL, Cairn India, Dabur, Dish TV, GAIL, Hexaware, HUL, Hind. Zinc, India Cement, LIC Hsg, NCC, NTPC, Opto Circuit, Ranbaxy, SCI, Sun Pharma, Wipro, ZEEL, Andhra Bank, Axis Bank, Canara Bank, CESC, Godrej Inds; HCL Tech; Hero Motocorp, ITC, Karnataka Bank, Pantaloon Retail, Petronet, Sun YV, Tata Communication Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 3. NOTE: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS SMA – Simple Moving Average EMA – Exponential Moving Average WMA – Weighted Moving Average Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent. Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com