This is my daily update for COVID-19 trends for July 25, 2020. Prior analyses and the R program code can be found at https://github.com/StevenLShafer/COVID19

1. US States
7

2. Change in New Cases per Day
New cases are:
Increasing > +3%
Increasing between +1% and +3%
No Change (-1% to +1%)
Decreasing between -1% and -3%
Decreasing > -3%
New cases by state as of 2020-07-25
8

3. Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
PercentofPeak
Daily Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
9

4. Change in New Deaths per Day
New deaths are:
Increasing > +0.5%
Increasing between +0.1% and +0.5%
No Change (-0.1% to +0.1%)
Decreasing between -0.1% and -0.5%
Decreasing > -0.5%
New deaths by state as of 2020-07-25
10

5. Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
PercentofPeak
Daily Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
11

6. Total cases per million
HI
VT
ME
MT
AK
WV
OR
WY
NH
KY
MO
WA
OH
OK
ND
CO
WI
KS
MI
PA
MN
NM
IN
SD
VA
ID
NC
CA
UT
AR
NE
TN
TX
IA
NV
IL
MD
CT
DE
GA
SC
AL
DC
MS
MA
RI
FL
NJ
NY
AZ
LA
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
0 10 20 30 40 50
State
Totalcasespermillionpopulation
Total cases to date
Total US COVID-19 Cases
12

7. Case rates per million
VT
ME
HI
NH
NJ
CT
NY
MA
RI
MI
WV
PA
SD
OR
WY
CO
MT
AK
DC
IL
WA
MN
VA
OH
IN
MD
NE
KY
NM
DE
ND
WI
KS
IA
MO
OK
NC
UT
CA
AR
ID
TN
TX
SC
GA
NV
AZ
AL
MS
LA
FL
0
200
400
0 10 20 30 40 50
State
Averagenewcasesperdaypermillionpopulation
Masks
aa
No
Yes
Average over past 7 days
US COVID-19 Case Rates
Statewide masks requirements as of 7/22/2020, p = 0.039
13

8. Total deaths per million
HI
AK
MT
WY
WV
OR
ID
UT
ME
VT
KS
OK
ND
AR
TN
SD
WI
KY
NE
TX
NC
MO
WA
CA
NV
VA
IA
FL
SC
OH
MN
NM
AL
NH
CO
GA
IN
AZ
MS
PA
MD
DE
IL
MI
LA
DC
RI
MA
CT
NY
NJ
0
500
1000
1500
0 10 20 30 40 50
State
Totaldeathspermillionpopulation
Total deaths to date
Total US COVID-19 Deaths
14

9. Deaths rates per million
VT
WY
WV
AK
HI
ME
MI
CT
VA
MN
WA
NY
CO
OR
SD
WI
KS
NE
NH
KY
IL
DC
MT
PA
NJ
OK
MO
UT
MD
ND
RI
IN
IA
OH
ID
MA
NC
AR
NM
TN
CA
NV
GA
TX
AL
FL
LA
MS
DE
SC
AZ
0
3
6
9
12
0 10 20 30 40 50
State
Averagedeathsperdaypermillionpopulation
Masks
aa
No
Yes
Averaged over past 7 days
US COVID-19 Death Rates
Statewide masks requirements as of 7/22/2020, p = 0.62
15

10. Percent tested by state
HI
CO
WY
PA
OR
ID
KS
MO
IN
OH
NH
TX
ME
WA
AZ
VA
SD
KY
SC
AL
NE
GA
OK
MD
NV
MS
MT
IA
VT
WV
WI
NC
FL
AR
UT
MA
MI
MN
DE
CA
RI
ND
IL
TN
CT
NJ
DC
NM
LA
AK
NY
0
10
20
30
0 10 20 30 40 50
State
PercentTested
Percent Tested
16

11. Positive fraction trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Fractionpositivefrommintomax
Positive fraction trends from min to max
17

12. Hospitalizations trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Hospitalizationsfrommintomax
Hospitalizations trends from min to max
18

13. Case Mortality vs. Testing
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
DC
FL
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MSMO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OKOR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WVWI
WY
2.5
5.0
7.5
10 15 20 25
% Tested
%Mortality
Mortality vs. Testing as of 2020-07-25
19

14. Mortality Trends
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
CaseRateMortality
Mortality Type:
13 day rolling median
Cumulative
Daily Raw
Daily vs. Cumulative Case Rate Mortality
Last week excluded because deaths are often backdated
20

15. Alabama
148,177
2,757
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Alabama projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0
50
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 76,005 (1,793) -- Deaths: 1,438 (41) -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: +1.1% Cases, +3.4% Deaths
21

16. Alaska
5,714
25
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Alaska projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
25
50
75
100
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,249 (56) -- Deaths: 19 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.8% -- Daily Change: +1.7% Cases, +12.2% Deaths
22

17. Arizona
200,542
9,304
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Arizona projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 156,301 (3,357) -- Deaths: 3,143 (80) -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: -1.5% Cases, +2.1% Deaths
23

18. Arkansas
67,528
704
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Arkansas projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
300
600
900
0
20
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 37,249 (990) -- Deaths: 394 (8) -- Case Mortality: 1.1% -- Daily Change: +1.8% Cases, +3.5% Deaths
24

19. California
840,675
13,632
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
California projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
5,000
10,000
0
200
400
600
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 440,185 (9,412) -- Deaths: 8,337 (136) -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: +1.0% Cases, +2.3% Deaths
25

20. Colorado
59,528
1,960
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Colorado projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 42,962 (667) -- Deaths: 1,790 (4) -- Case Mortality: 4.2% -- Daily Change: +3.0% Cases, +2.6% Deaths
26

21. Connecticut
50,905
4,593
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Connecticut projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
30
60
90
120
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 48,776 (544) -- Deaths: 4,413 (3) -- Case Mortality: 9.0% -- Daily Change: +10.4% Cases, -4.4% Deaths
27

22. Delaware
17,372
594
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Delaware projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
1,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 14,202 (278) -- Deaths: 578 (49) -- Case Mortality: 4.1% -- Daily Change: +5.9% Cases, +24.4% Deaths
28

23. District of Columbia
13,486
632
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
District of Columbia projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
250
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 11,649 (78) -- Deaths: 581 (0) -- Case Mortality: 5.0% -- Daily Change: +2.7% Cases, -2.5% Deaths
29

24. Florida
789,745
12,411
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Florida projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0
200
400
600
800
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 402,312 (12,444) -- Deaths: 5,653 (135) -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: -0.3% Cases, +3.8% Deaths
30

25. Georgia
308,908
4,625
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Georgia projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 161,420 (4,813) -- Deaths: 3,443 (82) -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: +1.8% Cases, +7.2% Deaths
31

26. Hawaii
2,124
51
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Hawaii projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
20
40
60
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,549 (59) -- Deaths: 26 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.7% -- Daily Change: +4.5% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
32

27. Idaho
36,582
300
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Idaho projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
600
800
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 17,265 (528) -- Deaths: 144 (6) -- Case Mortality: 0.8% -- Daily Change: +0.2% Cases, +8.8% Deaths
33

28. Illinois
206,155
8,656
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Illinois projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
0
100
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 169,696 (1,600) -- Deaths: 7,577 (17) -- Case Mortality: 4.5% -- Daily Change: +3.2% Cases, -3.5% Deaths
34

29. Indiana
84,005
3,268
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Indiana projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 60,598 (996) -- Deaths: 2,884 (4) -- Case Mortality: 4.8% -- Daily Change: +3.8% Cases, +3.2% Deaths
35

30. Iowa
62,599
1,070
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Iowa projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
1,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 41,434 (638) -- Deaths: 826 (6) -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: -0.1% Cases, +2.0% Deaths
36

31. Kansas
43,389
418
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Kansas projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 24,554 (598) -- Deaths: 330 (8) -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: +1.2% Cases, +7.3% Deaths
37

32. Kentucky
46,364
950
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Kentucky projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
1,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 25,932 (785) -- Deaths: 691 (7) -- Case Mortality: 2.7% -- Daily Change: +4.9% Cases, -0.6% Deaths
38

33. Louisiana
188,108
4,610
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Louisiana projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 103,734 (2,084) -- Deaths: 3,715 (29) -- Case Mortality: 3.6% -- Daily Change: +1.2% Cases, +5.3% Deaths
39

34. Maine
4,355
143
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Maine projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
20
40
60
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,757 (20) -- Deaths: 118 (0) -- Case Mortality: 3.1% -- Daily Change: -1.1% Cases, -5.3% Deaths
40

35. Maryland
102,754
3,797
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Maryland projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 81,766 (930) -- Deaths: 3,422 (13) -- Case Mortality: 4.2% -- Daily Change: +2.9% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
41

36. Massachusetts
122,408
9,153
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Massachusetts projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 114,985 (338) -- Deaths: 8,498 (14) -- Case Mortality: 7.4% -- Daily Change: +2.2% Cases, -1.7% Deaths
42

37. Michigan
106,948
6,783
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Michigan projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 85,072 (641) -- Deaths: 6,400 (5) -- Case Mortality: 7.5% -- Daily Change: +0.7% Cases, -4.7% Deaths
43

38. Minnesota
72,348
1,819
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Minnesota projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 49,488 (767) -- Deaths: 1,606 (5) -- Case Mortality: 3.2% -- Daily Change: +0.9% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
44

39. Mississippi
91,024
2,413
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Mississippi projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 49,585 (1,532) -- Deaths: 1,463 (27) -- Case Mortality: 3.0% -- Daily Change: +4.5% Cases, +2.6% Deaths
45

40. Missouri
75,022
1,478
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Missouri projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 39,635 (1,575) -- Deaths: 1,195 (6) -- Case Mortality: 3.0% -- Daily Change: +7.7% Cases, +4.2% Deaths
46

41. Montana
7,618
182
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Montana projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,038 (129) -- Deaths: 46 (3) -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: +0.7% Cases, +1.4% Deaths
47

42. Nebraska
31,364
396
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Nebraska projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 24,174 (356) -- Deaths: 316 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: +3.7% Cases, +4.6% Deaths
48

43. Nevada
81,222
1,244
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Nevada projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 40,885 (966) -- Deaths: 722 (13) -- Case Mortality: 1.8% -- Daily Change: +1.8% Cases, +4.6% Deaths
49

44. New Hampshire
7,070
454
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Hampshire projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,375 (57) -- Deaths: 407 (2) -- Case Mortality: 6.4% -- Daily Change: +3.8% Cases, +4.7% Deaths
50

45. New Jersey
185,564
17,021
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Jersey projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
0
100
200
300
400
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 178,345 (458) -- Deaths: 15,765 (28) -- Case Mortality: 8.8% -- Daily Change: +0.7% Cases, -9.2% Deaths
51

46. New Mexico
29,920
808
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Mexico projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 18,475 (312) -- Deaths: 601 (5) -- Case Mortality: 3.3% -- Daily Change: +1.6% Cases, +2.1% Deaths
52

47. New York
430,663
33,404
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New York projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
0
250
500
750
1,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 410,450 (753) -- Deaths: 32,596 (2) -- Case Mortality: 7.9% -- Daily Change: +0.5% Cases, -1.7% Deaths
53

48. North Carolina
193,888
2,719
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
North Carolina projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
0
50
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 109,728 (2,603) -- Deaths: 1,789 (33) -- Case Mortality: 1.6% -- Daily Change: +0.9% Cases, +3.5% Deaths
54

49. North Dakota
9,741
139
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
North Dakota projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,614 (121) -- Deaths: 99 (2) -- Case Mortality: 1.8% -- Daily Change: +3.6% Cases, +7.3% Deaths
55

50. Ohio
139,441
4,062
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Ohio projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 81,746 (1,560) -- Deaths: 3,297 (41) -- Case Mortality: 4.0% -- Daily Change: +0.9% Cases, +5.4% Deaths
56

51. Oklahoma
53,549
686
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Oklahoma projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 29,116 (1,147) -- Deaths: 484 (7) -- Case Mortality: 1.7% -- Daily Change: +2.5% Cases, +4.7% Deaths
57

52. Oregon
29,909
464
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Oregon projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 16,104 (391) -- Deaths: 282 (9) -- Case Mortality: 1.8% -- Daily Change: +0.5% Cases, +3.3% Deaths
58

53. Pennsylvania
137,199
7,867
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Pennsylvania projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 110,292 (1,187) -- Deaths: 7,116 (23) -- Case Mortality: 6.5% -- Daily Change: +1.9% Cases, -0.9% Deaths
59

54. Rhode Island
20,078
1,087
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Rhode Island projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 18,224 (76) -- Deaths: 1,002 (1) -- Case Mortality: 5.5% -- Daily Change: +1.0% Cases, -1.9% Deaths
60

55. South Carolina
156,454
3,494
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Carolina projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0
40
80
120
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 78,607 (2,001) -- Deaths: 1,385 (51) -- Case Mortality: 1.8% -- Daily Change: -0.2% Cases, +7.0% Deaths
61

56. South Dakota
10,188
198
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Dakota projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 8,200 (57) -- Deaths: 122 (1) -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: +0.8% Cases, -4.8% Deaths
62

57. Tennessee
172,318
1,884
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Tennessee projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 89,078 (2,091) -- Deaths: 938 (13) -- Case Mortality: 1.1% -- Daily Change: +1.8% Cases, +3.0% Deaths
63

58. Texas
704,781
14,488
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Texas projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0
200
400
600
800
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 380,364 (7,327) -- Deaths: 4,790 (168) -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: -0.3% Cases, +4.9% Deaths
64

59. Utah
63,549
559
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Utah projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
1,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 36,962 (863) -- Deaths: 273 (6) -- Case Mortality: 0.7% -- Daily Change: +0.6% Cases, +2.7% Deaths
65

60. Vermont
1,626
56
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Vermont projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
10
20
30
40
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,385 (8) -- Deaths: 56 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.0% -- Daily Change: -0.6% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
66

61. Virginia
114,853
2,567
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Virginia projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 82,364 (1,127) -- Deaths: 2,067 (13) -- Case Mortality: 2.5% -- Daily Change: +1.5% Cases, -3.7% Deaths
67

62. Washington
85,669
1,735
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Washington projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 50,824 (815) -- Deaths: 1,495 (13) -- Case Mortality: 2.9% -- Daily Change: +0.5% Cases, +3.2% Deaths
68

63. West Virginia
7,638
121
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
West Virginia projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
250
0.0
5.0
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,653 (201) -- Deaths: 103 (1) -- Case Mortality: 1.8% -- Daily Change: +2.4% Cases, +2.2% Deaths
69

64. Wisconsin
84,043
1,039
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Wisconsin projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
300
600
900
1,200
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 46,917 (1,018) -- Deaths: 878 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: +2.0% Cases, +6.2% Deaths
70

65. Wyoming
4,094
42
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Wyoming projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
20
40
60
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,405 (58) -- Deaths: 25 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: +3.7% Cases, -3.0% Deaths
71

66. US Counties
72

67. Change in New Cases per Day
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
NA
Trends by county as of 2020-07-25
NA = Inadequate data
73

68. Percent Change by Partisan Lean
-10
-5
0
5
10
0 25 50 75 100
Percent Republican
Percentchangeinnewcasesperday
25
50
75
Republican
Counties by 2016 presidential election results
Dark green line is a Friedman's supersmoother
74

69. Percent Change by Population
-10
-5
0
5
10
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
Population
Percentchangeinnewcasesperday
25
50
75
Republican
Counties by Population
Dark green line is a Friedman's 'super smoother'
75

70. Partisan Lean vs Population and Direction
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
0 25 50 75 100
Percent Republican
Population
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
Partisan Lean vs Population and Direction
Dark green line is a Friedman's 'super smoother'
76

71. Cases as a Percent of Population
0.001%
0.01%
0.1%
1%
10%
20%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Totalcases
Total Cases as a Percent of County Population
Slanted lines are counties with small integer numbers of cases, green line: Friedman's 'super smoother'
77

72. Deaths as a Percent of Population
0.0001%
0.001%
0.01%
0.1%
1%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Totaldeaths
Total Deaths as a Percent of County Population
Slanted lines are counties with small integer numbers of cases, green line: Friedman's 'super smoother'
78

73. Case Mortality vs. Population
0.1%
1%
10%
100%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Casemortality
Case Mortality vs. County Population
79

74. New York City
232,410
24,046
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
New York City projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0
200
400
600
800
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 223,192 (360) -- Deaths: 23,465 (2) -- Case Mortality: 10.5% -- Daily Change: +1.4% Cases, -2.8% Deaths
80

75. Westchester County, NY
36,664
1,474
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Westchester County, NY projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 35,700 (33) -- Deaths: 1,443 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.0% -- Daily Change: -0.1% Cases, +1.1% Deaths
81

76. Bergen County, NJ
20,932
2,109
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Bergen County, NJ projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
300
600
900
1,200
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 20,162 (29) -- Deaths: 2,041 (7) -- Case Mortality: 10.1% -- Daily Change: +0.4% Cases, -7.5% Deaths
82

77. Hudson County, NJ
19,333
1,606
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Hudson County, NJ projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
300
600
900
1,200
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 19,333 (0) -- Deaths: 1,500 (0) -- Case Mortality: 7.8% -- Daily Change: +0.0% Cases, -13.6% Deaths
83

78. King County (Seattle)
20,203
679
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
King County (Seattle) projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 14,026 (191) -- Deaths: 643 (5) -- Case Mortality: 4.6% -- Daily Change: +1.9% Cases, -2.4% Deaths
84

79. Clark County, Washington
2,180
42
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Clark County, Washington projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,308 (11) -- Deaths: 33 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.5% -- Daily Change: +0.6% Cases, -22.5% Deaths
85

80. Los Angeles
254,676
6,456
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Los Angeles projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
0
100
200
300
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 168,935 (2,067) -- Deaths: 4,300 (37) -- Case Mortality: 2.5% -- Daily Change: -1.9% Cases, -0.5% Deaths
86

81. Bay Area
56,608
709
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Bay Area projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 30,236 (651) -- Deaths: 477 (12) -- Case Mortality: 1.6% -- Daily Change: +0.2% Cases, +3.0% Deaths
87

82. San Francisco
9,902
64
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Francisco projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,679 (115) -- Deaths: 56 (1) -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: +0.8% Cases, +15.9% Deaths
88

83. Santa Clara and San Mateo
24,398
370
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Santa Clara and San Mateo projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 13,676 (258) -- Deaths: 300 (5) -- Case Mortality: 2.2% -- Daily Change: +1.5% Cases, -5.8% Deaths
89

84. Alameda County
17,840
269
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Alameda County projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 10,214 (345) -- Deaths: 178 (5) -- Case Mortality: 1.7% -- Daily Change: +3.5% Cases, +6.4% Deaths
90

85. San Luis Obispo, California
3,291
129
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Luis Obispo, California projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
30
60
90
0.0
2.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,500 (33) -- Deaths: 8 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.5% -- Daily Change: +1.0% Cases, +1.0% Deaths
91

86. Fresno, California
24,492
207
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Fresno, California projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 12,148 (392) -- Deaths: 112 (8) -- Case Mortality: 0.9% -- Daily Change: +3.1% Cases, +6.2% Deaths
92

87. Santa Barbara County
10,414
40
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Santa Barbara County projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
400
500
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,576 (132) -- Deaths: 32 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.6% -- Daily Change: +2.9% Cases, -16.2% Deaths
93

88. Merced County
6,643
135
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Merced County projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,245 (122) -- Deaths: 27 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.8% -- Daily Change: +3.8% Cases, +12.6% Deaths
94

89. Yolo County
2,017
40
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Yolo County projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
20
40
60
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,315 (40) -- Deaths: 40 (0) -- Case Mortality: 3.0% -- Daily Change: -0.3% Cases, +39.6% Deaths
95

90. San Diego County
48,415
911
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Diego County projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 26,098 (490) -- Deaths: 524 (12) -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: +1.0% Cases, +3.9% Deaths
96

91. Riverside County
64,056
1,055
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Riverside County projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 33,467 (654) -- Deaths: 637 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: +0.3% Cases, +1.4% Deaths
97

92. Imperial County
11,968
397
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Imperial County projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 8,967 (48) -- Deaths: 173 (3) -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: -1.1% Cases, -1.0% Deaths
98

93. Multnomah County (Portland)
6,993
94
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Multnomah County (Portland) projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
25
50
75
100
125
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,813 (70) -- Deaths: 78 (2) -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: -0.0% Cases, +8.9% Deaths
99

94. Utah County
12,282
60
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Utah County projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,938 (185) -- Deaths: 31 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.4% -- Daily Change: +2.2% Cases, -9.8% Deaths
100

95. Summit County, Utah
942
1
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Summit County, Utah projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 658 (7) -- Deaths: 1 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.2% -- Daily Change: -2.3% Cases, NaN% Deaths
101

96. De Soto Parish, Louisiana
945
34
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
De Soto Parish, Louisiana projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 552 (12) -- Deaths: 23 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.2% -- Daily Change: +2.7% Cases, +2.4% Deaths
102

97. St. Francois County, Missouri
350
2
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Francois County, Missouri projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 219 (3) -- Deaths: 2 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.9% -- Daily Change: +6.3% Cases, NaN% Deaths
103

98. Dallas, Texas
59,601
1,214
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Dallas, Texas projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
30
60
90
120
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 44,087 (0) -- Deaths: 579 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: -5.4% Cases, +2.2% Deaths
104

99. Collin Texas
7,668
166
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Collin Texas projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,748 (0) -- Deaths: 72 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: -4.2% Cases, +0.5% Deaths
105

100. Harris County (Houston)
123,244
1,395
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Harris County (Houston) projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
25
50
75
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 62,612 (1,201) -- Deaths: 615 (18) -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: -0.9% Cases, +3.0% Deaths
106

101. Tulsa County, Oklahoma
13,929
142
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tulsa County, Oklahoma projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,111 (255) -- Deaths: 89 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: +1.7% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
107

102. McLean County, Illinois
863
20
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
McLean County, Illinois projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 442 (10) -- Deaths: 15 (0) -- Case Mortality: 3.4% -- Daily Change: +3.6% Cases, -26.7% Deaths
108

103. Cook County, Illinois
115,235
5,222
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Cook County, Illinois projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 101,411 (616) -- Deaths: 4,822 (12) -- Case Mortality: 4.8% -- Daily Change: +2.7% Cases, -2.9% Deaths
109

104. Suffolk County (Boston)
21,995
1,118
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Suffolk County (Boston) projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 20,793 (61) -- Deaths: 1,044 (2) -- Case Mortality: 5.0% -- Daily Change: +1.0% Cases, +0.4% Deaths
110

105. Polk County, Iowa
14,287
220
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Polk County, Iowa projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 8,906 (120) -- Deaths: 191 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: -1.6% Cases, -5.9% Deaths
111

106. Johnson County, Iowa
2,683
12
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Johnson County, Iowa projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
20
40
0.0
1.0
2.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,720 (19) -- Deaths: 10 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.6% -- Daily Change: -1.7% Cases, +11.5% Deaths
112

107. Erie County, New York
9,478
717
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Erie County, New York projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 8,234 (47) -- Deaths: 663 (0) -- Case Mortality: 8.1% -- Daily Change: +0.4% Cases, +1.2% Deaths
113

108. Oakland County, Michigan
16,528
1,191
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Oakland County, Michigan projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
0
10
20
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 13,782 (71) -- Deaths: 1,125 (3) -- Case Mortality: 8.2% -- Daily Change: +0.1% Cases, -1.6% Deaths
114

109. St. Louis (City)
6,361
176
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Louis (City) projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
40
80
120
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,806 (73) -- Deaths: 164 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.3% -- Daily Change: +4.4% Cases, +3.3% Deaths
115

110. St. Louis (County)
18,158
718
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Louis (County) projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 10,627 (378) -- Deaths: 644 (2) -- Case Mortality: 6.1% -- Daily Change: +6.6% Cases, +5.4% Deaths
116

111. Baltimore (City)
14,216
508
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Baltimore (City) projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 10,001 (159) -- Deaths: 395 (3) -- Case Mortality: 3.9% -- Daily Change: +1.7% Cases, +2.3% Deaths
117

112. Durham County
8,275
95
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Durham County projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
30
60
90
0.0
2.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,370 (101) -- Deaths: 76 (2) -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: -0.7% Cases, +3.0% Deaths
118

113. Cuyahoga County (Cleveland)
15,497
610
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 11,404 (198) -- Deaths: 450 (15) -- Case Mortality: 3.9% -- Daily Change: -1.4% Cases, +6.5% Deaths
119

114. Wayne County (Detroit)
30,234
2,917
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Wayne County (Detroit) projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 25,770 (121) -- Deaths: 2,789 (1) -- Case Mortality: 10.8% -- Daily Change: -0.3% Cases, -4.6% Deaths
120

115. Miami-Dade
184,176
2,449
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Miami-Dade projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 98,430 (3,362) -- Deaths: 1,370 (16) -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: +0.9% Cases, -0.9% Deaths
121

116. Maricopa County
133,893
6,502
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Maricopa County projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 104,613 (2,366) -- Deaths: 1,718 (67) -- Case Mortality: 1.6% -- Daily Change: -1.6% Cases, +2.3% Deaths
122

117. Denver County
11,536
448
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Denver County projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 8,939 (130) -- Deaths: 403 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.5% -- Daily Change: +5.0% Cases, -5.6% Deaths
123

118. Arapahoe County
8,066
379
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Arapahoe County projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
250
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,373 (97) -- Deaths: 360 (0) -- Case Mortality: 5.6% -- Daily Change: +4.6% Cases, +9.2% Deaths
124

119. Montrose County
314
14
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Montrose County projection as of 2020-07-25
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 251 (3) -- Deaths: 13 (0) -- Case Mortality: 5.2% -- Daily Change: +8.7% Cases, +24.6% Deaths
125

120. International
126

121. Italy
251,197
35,581
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Italy projection as of 2020-07-25
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0
200
400
600
800
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 245,590 (252) -- Deaths: 35,097 (5) -- Case Mortality: 14.3% -- Daily Change: +2.5% Cases, -2.0% Deaths
127

122. Spain
298,973
28,752
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Spain projection as of 2020-07-25
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0
250
500
750
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 272,421 (2,255) -- Deaths: 28,752 (0) -- Case Mortality: 10.6% -- Daily Change: +8.6% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
128

123. Portugal
60,395
1,920
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Portugal projection as of 2020-07-25
0
200
400
600
800
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 49,692 (313) -- Deaths: 1,712 (7) -- Case Mortality: 3.4% -- Daily Change: -3.5% Cases, -1.9% Deaths
129

124. France
235,511
30,871
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
France projection as of 2020-07-25
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
0
250
500
750
1,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 217,797 (1,130) -- Deaths: 30,195 (10) -- Case Mortality: 13.9% -- Daily Change: +4.7% Cases, -7.0% Deaths
130

125. Germany
216,459
9,292
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Germany projection as of 2020-07-25
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
0
100
200
300
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 205,623 (742) -- Deaths: 9,120 (10) -- Case Mortality: 4.4% -- Daily Change: +5.5% Cases, -0.4% Deaths
131

126. Switzerland
36,955
1,991
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Switzerland projection as of 2020-07-25
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 34,154 (154) -- Deaths: 1,977 (2) -- Case Mortality: 5.8% -- Daily Change: +3.2% Cases, +12.5% Deaths
132

127. Austria
23,327
726
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Austria projection as of 2020-07-25
0
200
400
600
800
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 20,214 (115) -- Deaths: 711 (0) -- Case Mortality: 3.5% -- Daily Change: +2.8% Cases, -13.6% Deaths
133

128. Sweden
90,905
6,250
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Sweden projection as of 2020-07-25
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
30
60
90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 78,997 (234) -- Deaths: 5,697 (21) -- Case Mortality: 7.2% -- Daily Change: -4.4% Cases, +0.5% Deaths
134

129. Netherlands
55,400
6,179
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Netherlands projection as of 2020-07-25
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 52,837 (197) -- Deaths: 6,158 (0) -- Case Mortality: 11.7% -- Daily Change: +7.8% Cases, -8.7% Deaths
135

130. United Kingdom
319,211
48,640
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
United Kingdom projection as of 2020-07-25
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
0
250
500
750
1,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 299,500 (769) -- Deaths: 45,762 (123) -- Case Mortality: 15.3% -- Daily Change: -0.0% Cases, -0.6% Deaths
136

131. Iceland
1,857
10
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Iceland projection as of 2020-07-25
0
20
40
60
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,843 (2) -- Deaths: 10 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.5% -- Daily Change: +11.4% Cases, NaN% Deaths
137

132. Canada
125,960
9,323
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Canada projection as of 2020-07-25
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 115,115 (717) -- Deaths: 8,923 (4) -- Case Mortality: 7.8% -- Daily Change: +4.6% Cases, -5.4% Deaths
138

133. Australia
28,107
235
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Australia projection as of 2020-07-25
0
100
200
300
400
500
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 13,950 (355) -- Deaths: 145 (6) -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: +3.5% Cases, +11.5% Deaths
139

134. New Zealand
1,593
22
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Zealand projection as of 2020-07-25
0
20
40
60
80
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,556 (0) -- Deaths: 22 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: -6.7% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
140

135. China
87,635
4,666
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
China projection as of 2020-07-25
0
2,000
4,000
0
100
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 86,202 (157) -- Deaths: 4,650 (1) -- Case Mortality: 5.4% -- Daily Change: +11.0% Cases, +7.1% Deaths
141

136. Taiwan
463
7
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Taiwan projection as of 2020-07-25
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 458 (3) -- Deaths: 7 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: +20.2% Cases, NaN% Deaths
142

137. South Korea
15,451
330
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Korea projection as of 2020-07-25
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 14,092 (113) -- Deaths: 298 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: +3.9% Cases, -1.0% Deaths
143

138. Singapore
56,555
30
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Singapore projection as of 2020-07-25
0
250
500
750
1,000
0
20
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 49,375 (277) -- Deaths: 27 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.1% -- Daily Change: +3.2% Cases, -14.0% Deaths
144

139. Japan
47,139
1,017
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Japan projection as of 2020-07-25
0
250
500
750
1,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 28,883 (769) -- Deaths: 994 (2) -- Case Mortality: 3.4% -- Daily Change: +6.7% Cases, +9.9% Deaths
145

140. South Africa
788,971
21,918
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Africa projection as of 2020-07-25
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0
200
400
600
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 421,996 (13,944) -- Deaths: 6,343 (250) -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: +0.6% Cases, +6.4% Deaths
146

141. Israel
132,125
790
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Israel projection as of 2020-07-25
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
30
60
90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 59,475 (1,493) -- Deaths: 448 (6) -- Case Mortality: 0.8% -- Daily Change: +1.4% Cases, +4.4% Deaths
147

142. Turkey
254,738
6,360
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Turkey projection as of 2020-07-25
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 224,252 (937) -- Deaths: 5,580 (17) -- Case Mortality: 2.5% -- Daily Change: -0.8% Cases, -1.0% Deaths
148

143. Iran
369,452
26,266
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Iran projection as of 2020-07-25
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 286,523 (2,489) -- Deaths: 15,289 (215) -- Case Mortality: 5.3% -- Daily Change: +0.6% Cases, +1.5% Deaths
149

144. Iraq
206,042
12,312
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Iraq projection as of 2020-07-25
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 104,711 (2,485) -- Deaths: 4,212 (90) -- Case Mortality: 4.0% -- Daily Change: +0.3% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
150

145. Egypt
122,563
8,519
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Egypt projection as of 2020-07-25
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 91,072 (659) -- Deaths: 4,518 (38) -- Case Mortality: 5.0% -- Daily Change: -3.3% Cases, -3.6% Deaths
151

146. Saudi Arabia
369,933
5,162
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Saudi Arabia projection as of 2020-07-25
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 262,772 (2,378) -- Deaths: 2,672 (37) -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: -2.0% Cases, +0.2% Deaths
152

147. Kuwait
87,317
551
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Kuwait projection as of 2020-07-25
0
250
500
750
1,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 62,625 (753) -- Deaths: 425 (4) -- Case Mortality: 0.7% -- Daily Change: -0.1% Cases, +1.3% Deaths
153

148. United Arab Emirates
70,378
388
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
United Arab Emirates projection as of 2020-07-25
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 58,249 (261) -- Deaths: 343 (1) -- Case Mortality: 0.6% -- Daily Change: -4.4% Cases, -3.1% Deaths
154

149. Oman
138,049
1,062
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Oman projection as of 2020-07-25
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
30
60
90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 73,791 (1,145) -- Deaths: 359 (4) -- Case Mortality: 0.5% -- Daily Change: -1.6% Cases, +2.0% Deaths
155

150. Qatar
92,298
268
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Qatar projection as of 2020-07-25
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
25
50
75
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 108,638 (394) -- Deaths: 164 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.2% -- Daily Change: -2.2% Cases, -1.8% Deaths
156

151. Bahrain
52,043
278
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Bahrain projection as of 2020-07-25
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 38,458 (462) -- Deaths: 136 (2) -- Case Mortality: 0.4% -- Daily Change: -2.4% Cases, -0.7% Deaths
157

152. Brazil
3,948,158
144,746
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Brazil projection as of 2020-07-25
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,343,366 (55,891) -- Deaths: 85,238 (1,156) -- Case Mortality: 3.6% -- Daily Change: +4.0% Cases, +0.8% Deaths
158

153. Chile
424,304
19,290
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Chile projection as of 2020-07-25
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
0
300
600
900
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 341,304 (2,545) -- Deaths: 8,914 (76) -- Case Mortality: 2.6% -- Daily Change: -1.6% Cases, +0.4% Deaths
159

154. Colombia
593,714
29,468
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Colombia projection as of 2020-07-25
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
0
100
200
300
400
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 233,541 (7,168) -- Deaths: 7,975 (287) -- Case Mortality: 3.4% -- Daily Change: +3.1% Cases, +3.1% Deaths
160

155. Peru
511,711
33,622
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Peru projection as of 2020-07-25
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 375,961 (4,865) -- Deaths: 17,843 (189) -- Case Mortality: 4.7% -- Daily Change: +2.4% Cases, +14.3% Deaths
161

156. Mexico
664,420
79,741
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Mexico projection as of 2020-07-25
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
0
250
500
750
1,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 378,285 (7,573) -- Deaths: 42,645 (737) -- Case Mortality: 11.3% -- Daily Change: +1.7% Cases, +1.3% Deaths
162

157. Russia
1,018,864
21,365
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Russia projection as of 2020-07-25
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
0
200
400
600
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 799,499 (5,779) -- Deaths: 13,026 (153) -- Case Mortality: 1.6% -- Daily Change: -1.0% Cases, -0.9% Deaths
163

158. India
2,938,801
76,293
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
India projection as of 2020-07-25
0
20,000
40,000
0
1,000
2,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,337,024 (48,916) -- Deaths: 31,358 (757) -- Case Mortality: 2.3% -- Daily Change: +4.5% Cases, +3.3% Deaths
164

159. Pakistan
351,741
8,714
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Pakistan projection as of 2020-07-25
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
0
100
200
300
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 271,887 (1,487) -- Deaths: 5,787 (24) -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: -4.7% Cases, -4.1% Deaths
165

160. Worldwide cases
MMR
VNM
TWN
TZA
SYR
BFA
UGA
NER
MOZ
YEM
LKA
THA
MDG
COD
MYS
SDN
ETH
AUS
KOR
VEN
CIV
KEN
CMR
NPL
MAR
UZB
DZA
JPN
GHA
AFG
NGA
POL
ROU
NLD
UKR
PHL
KAZ
CHN
EGY
IDN
IRQ
CAN
ARG
DEU
FRA
BGD
TUR
COL
ITA
SAU
PAK
ESP
IRN
GBR
CHL
PER
MEX
ZAF
RUS
IND
BRA
USAUSA
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
0 20 40 60
Country
Totalcasesoverpast7days
Total to date
Worldwide cases
ZAF: South Africa, SAU: Saudi Arabia, PER: Peru, COL: Columbia
166

161. Worldwide cases
VNM
MMR
TZA
TWN
SYR
UGA
THA
CHN
BFA
YEM
MOZ
NER
COD
LKA
ETH
JPN
NGA
KOR
MYS
IDN
KEN
MDG
SDN
VEN
MAR
NPL
AUS
UZB
CIV
DZA
PHL
CMR
POL
EGY
IND
AFG
GHA
BGD
UKR
PAK
ROU
DEU
TUR
NLD
IRQ
MEX
CAN
FRA
ARG
ITA
IRN
COL
GBR
KAZ
RUS
ESP
ZAF
SAU
BRA
PER
USA
CHL
USA
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
0 20 40 60
Country
Totalcasespermillion
Total to date
Worldwide cases per million
ZAF: South Africa, SAU: Saudi Arabia, PER: Peru, COL: Columbia
167

162. Worldwide cases
TZA
MMR
TWN
VNM
CHN
THA
UGA
NER
BFA
LKA
MYS
YEM
SYR
COD
KOR
MOZ
CMR
SDN
NGA
ITA
AFG
NPL
JPN
ETH
DEU
IDN
EGY
MAR
NLD
POL
PAK
CIV
GBR
TUR
FRA
KEN
CAN
VEN
AUS
MDG
DZA
UKR
BGD
PHL
UZB
GHA
IND
IRN
ROU
ESP
RUS
MEX
IRQ
SAU
KAZ
ARG
CHL
PER
COL
BRA
USA
ZAF
USA
0
100
200
300
0 20 40 60
Country
Newcasesperdaypermillion
Daily average over past 7 days
Worldwide new cases per day
ZAF: South Africa, SAU: Saudi Arabia, PER: Peru, COL: Columbia
168

163. Worldwide deaths
VNM
UGA
MMR
TWN
LKA
MOZ
TZA
SYR
NPL
BFA
THA
NER
MDG
CIV
UZB
MYS
VEN
AUS
GHA
ETH
COD
KEN
KOR
MAR
CMR
YEM
KAZ
SDN
NGA
JPN
DZA
AFG
UKR
POL
PHL
ROU
SAU
ARG
BGD
IRQ
EGY
CHN
IDN
TUR
PAK
NLD
ZAF
COL
CHL
CAN
DEU
RUS
IRN
PER
ESP
FRA
IND
ITA
MEX
GBR
BRA
USAUSA
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
0 20 40 60
Country
Totaldeathsoverpast7days
Total to date
Worldwide deaths
ZAF: South Africa, SAU: Saudi Arabia, PER: Peru, COL: Columbia
169

164. Worldwide deaths
VNM
UGA
MMR
TWN
TZA
MOZ
LKA
THA
NPL
SYR
ETH
COD
BFA
CHN
MDG
UZB
NER
CIV
MYS
VEN
NGA
KOR
GHA
AUS
KEN
JPN
MAR
BGD
PHL
IDN
YEM
CMR
IND
SDN
PAK
DZA
UKR
KAZ
POL
AFG
EGY
ARG
TUR
RUS
SAU
ROU
DEU
ZAF
IRQ
COL
IRN
CAN
NLD
MEX
BRA
USA
FRA
CHL
ITA
PER
ESP
GBR
USA
0
200
400
600
800
0 20 40 60
Country
Totaldeathspermillion
Total to date
Worldwide deaths per million
ZAF: South Africa, SAU: Saudi Arabia, PER: Peru, COL: Columbia
170

165. Worldwide deaths
BFA
LKA
MMR
NER
THA
TWN
TZA
VNM
CHN
UGA
MYS
JPN
MOZ
KOR
COD
NLD
NPL
CIV
ESP
DEU
NGA
ETH
CMR
SYR
FRA
GHA
MAR
MDG
VEN
UZB
POL
YEM
AUS
ITA
CAN
KEN
SDN
TUR
PAK
BGD
PHL
DZA
UKR
IDN
AFG
EGY
IND
RUS
ROU
GBR
SAU
KAZ
ARG
IRQ
USA
IRN
ZAF
COL
BRA
MEX
CHL
PER
USA
0
10
20
0 20 40 60
Country
Deathsperdaypermillion
Daily average over past 7 days
Worldwide deaths per day
ZAF: South Africa, SAU: Saudi Arabia, PER: Peru, COL: Columbia
171

166. Case Mortality vs. Testing
LUX
ARE
BHR
MLT
DNK
ISL
LTU
RUS
ISR
QAT
USAPRT
AUS
BLR
MDV
GBR
IRL
KWT
ITA
BEL
LVA
CAN
SGP
KAZ
NZL
AUT
DEU
SRB
EST
ESP
CHE
SAU
CHLNOR
CZE
SVN
FIN
ROU
POL
TUR
NLD
SVKZAF
PAN
GRC
SLV
BGR
HUN
KOR
MARMYS
URY
IRN
HRV
COL
UKR
CUB
RWA
PRY
CRI
BRA
GHA
NPL
IND
ARG
BOL
PHL
PER
ECU
PAK
FJI
BGD
MEX
SEN
TUN
JPN
THAKENTGO
TWNZWE
IDN
VNM
ETHMMR
NGA
USA
0
5
10
15
0 20 40 60
% Tested
%CaseMortality
Case Mortality vs. Testing as of 2020-07-25
172