This document provides data on COVID-19 cases and projections for various US counties. It includes charts showing trends in new cases, case mortality rates, and modeled projections for future cases and deaths in counties such as New York City, Los Angeles, Seattle, and others through August 21, 2020. The data indicates both increasing and decreasing rates of new cases in different counties compared to previous periods.

1. US Counties
US Counties: 1

2. Change in New Cases per Day
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
NA
Trends by county as of 2020-08-21
NA = Inadequate data
2020-08-21 US Counties: 2

3. Percent Change by Partisan Lean
-10
-5
0
5
10
0 25 50 75 100
Percent Republican
Percentchangeinnewcasesperday
25
50
75
Republican
Counties by 2016 presidential election results
Dark green line is a Friedman's supersmoother
2020-08-21 US Counties: 3

4. Percent Change by Population
-10
-5
0
5
10
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
Population
Percentchangeinnewcasesperday
25
50
75
Republican
Counties by Population
Dark green line is a Friedman's 'super smoother'
2020-08-21 US Counties: 4

5. Partisan Lean vs Population and Direction
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
0 25 50 75 100
Percent Republican
Population
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
Partisan Lean vs Population and Direction
Dark green line is a Friedman's 'super smoother'
2020-08-21 US Counties: 5

6. Cases as a Percent of Population
0.001%
0.01%
0.1%
1%
10%
20%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Totalcases
Total Cases as a Percent of County Population
Slanted lines are counties with small integer numbers of cases, green line: Friedman's 'super smoother'
2020-08-21 US Counties: 6

7. Deaths as a Percent of Population
0.0001%
0.001%
0.01%
0.1%
1%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Totaldeaths
Total Deaths as a Percent of County Population
Slanted lines are counties with small integer numbers of cases, green line: Friedman's 'super smoother'
2020-08-21 US Counties: 7

8. Case Mortality vs. Population
0.1%
1%
10%
100%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Casemortality
Case Mortality vs. County Population
2020-08-21 US Counties: 8

9. New York City
234,539
23,721
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
New York City projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0
200
400
600
800
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 231,288 (273) -- Deaths: 23,643 (0) -- Case Mortality: 10.2% -- Daily Change: -0.5% Cases, -1.4% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 9

10. Westchester County, NY
36,927
1,449
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Westchester County, NY projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 36,586 (23) -- Deaths: 1,448 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.0% -- Daily Change: -0.2% Cases, +2.6% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 10

11. Bergen County, NJ
21,805
2,046
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Bergen County, NJ projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
300
600
900
1,200
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 21,307 (0) -- Deaths: 2,046 (0) -- Case Mortality: 9.6% -- Daily Change: -0.8% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 11

12. Hudson County, NJ
20,246
1,512
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Hudson County, NJ projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
300
600
900
1,200
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 19,970 (15) -- Deaths: 1,509 (0) -- Case Mortality: 7.6% -- Daily Change: -1.2% Cases, +6.5% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 12

13. King County (Seattle)
20,050
741
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
King County (Seattle) projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 18,297 (243) -- Deaths: 707 (6) -- Case Mortality: 3.9% -- Daily Change: +1.6% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 13

14. Clark County, Washington
2,372
58
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Clark County, Washington projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
30
60
90
0.0
2.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,000 (18) -- Deaths: 51 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.5% -- Daily Change: -2.2% Cases, +6.3% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 14

15. Los Angeles
253,315
5,989
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Los Angeles projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 227,346 (1,519) -- Deaths: 5,446 (54) -- Case Mortality: 2.4% -- Daily Change: -3.4% Cases, +1.2% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 15

16. Bay Area
57,513
692
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Bay Area projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 48,245 (475) -- Deaths: 626 (6) -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: +1.0% Cases, +1.0% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 16

17. San Francisco
9,944
81
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Francisco projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 8,611 (83) -- Deaths: 72 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.8% -- Daily Change: -1.5% Cases, -3.1% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 17

18. Santa Clara and San Mateo
27,010
367
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Santa Clara and San Mateo projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 22,640 (234) -- Deaths: 344 (1) -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: +0.5% Cases, -1.5% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 18

19. Alameda County
19,424
264
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Alameda County projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
600
800
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 16,184 (348) -- Deaths: 231 (3) -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: +1.3% Cases, -0.3% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 19

20. San Luis Obispo, California
3,273
23
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Luis Obispo, California projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,579 (0) -- Deaths: 20 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.8% -- Daily Change: -5.3% Cases, +7.8% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 20

21. Fresno, California
26,260
298
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Fresno, California projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
300
600
900
1,200
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 22,167 (369) -- Deaths: 208 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.9% -- Daily Change: +5.7% Cases, -6.1% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 21

22. Santa Barbara County
8,473
102
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Santa Barbara County projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,508 (0) -- Deaths: 82 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.1% -- Daily Change: -2.0% Cases, -0.7% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 22

23. Merced County
9,763
172
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Merced County projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,229 (0) -- Deaths: 97 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: -2.8% Cases, -0.5% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 23

24. Yolo County
2,610
52
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Yolo County projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
25
50
75
100
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,147 (29) -- Deaths: 47 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.2% -- Daily Change: -0.8% Cases, -2.2% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 24

25. San Diego County
39,846
699
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Diego County projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 35,608 (232) -- Deaths: 644 (6) -- Case Mortality: 1.8% -- Daily Change: -2.4% Cases, +1.0% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 25

26. Riverside County
56,595
1,134
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Riverside County projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
25
50
75
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 48,956 (326) -- Deaths: 922 (5) -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: +3.0% Cases, -3.1% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 26

27. Imperial County
10,850
308
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Imperial County projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 10,325 (21) -- Deaths: 266 (1) -- Case Mortality: 2.6% -- Daily Change: +1.4% Cases, -3.2% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 27

28. Multnomah County (Portland)
6,299
116
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Multnomah County (Portland) projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,505 (57) -- Deaths: 108 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: -3.1% Cases, +5.5% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 28

29. Utah County
11,078
44
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Utah County projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 9,804 (121) -- Deaths: 42 (1) -- Case Mortality: 0.4% -- Daily Change: +0.2% Cases, +12.3% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 29

30. Summit County, Utah
799
1
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Summit County, Utah projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.00
0.30
0.60
0.90
1.20
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 787 (22) -- Deaths: 1 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.1% -- Daily Change: +16.6% Cases, NaN% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 30

31. De Soto Parish, Louisiana
909
33
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
De Soto Parish, Louisiana projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
10
20
30
40
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 799 (12) -- Deaths: 30 (1) -- Case Mortality: 3.8% -- Daily Change: -2.9% Cases, +9.2% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 31

32. St. Francois County, Missouri
934
4
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Francois County, Missouri projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
20
40
60
80
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 674 (13) -- Deaths: 4 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.6% -- Daily Change: +6.7% Cases, +20.9% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 32

33. Dallas, Texas
75,169
1,003
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Dallas, Texas projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
2,000
4,000
0
100
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 66,772 (308) -- Deaths: 854 (11) -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: +7.0% Cases, -2.0% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 33

34. Collin Texas
14,007
135
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Collin Texas projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 10,451 (39) -- Deaths: 106 (1) -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: -2.0% Cases, -1.4% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 34

35. Harris County (Houston)
110,610
2,434
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Harris County (Houston) projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
30
60
90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 95,631 (955) -- Deaths: 1,953 (33) -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: -2.6% Cases, +0.7% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 35

36. Tulsa County, Oklahoma
14,137
137
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tulsa County, Oklahoma projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 11,873 (110) -- Deaths: 123 (1) -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: -3.2% Cases, +5.6% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 36

37. McLean County, Illinois
1,091
16
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
McLean County, Illinois projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
20
40
0.0
1.0
2.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 896 (20) -- Deaths: 16 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.8% -- Daily Change: +8.6% Cases, +20.9% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 37

38. Cook County, Illinois
125,917
5,042
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Cook County, Illinois projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 118,757 (745) -- Deaths: 4,988 (4) -- Case Mortality: 4.2% -- Daily Change: +0.6% Cases, +3.5% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 38

39. Suffolk County (Boston)
22,656
1,100
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Suffolk County (Boston) projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 22,017 (0) -- Deaths: 1,091 (15) -- Case Mortality: 5.0% -- Daily Change: -21.9% Cases, +4.5% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 39

40. Polk County, Iowa
12,417
221
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Polk County, Iowa projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 11,436 (216) -- Deaths: 212 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: +3.8% Cases, -5.3% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 40

41. Johnson County, Iowa
2,533
31
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Johnson County, Iowa projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
20
40
60
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,311 (32) -- Deaths: 24 (2) -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: +3.2% Cases, +0.7% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 41

42. Meade County, South Dakota (Sturgis)
150
1
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Meade County, South Dakota (Sturgis) projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 127 (7) -- Deaths: 1 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.8% -- Daily Change: +9.3% Cases, NaN% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 42

43. Erie County, New York
9,721
679
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Erie County, New York projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 9,283 (42) -- Deaths: 676 (0) -- Case Mortality: 7.3% -- Daily Change: -1.3% Cases, +7.1% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 43

44. Oakland County, Michigan
18,230
1,156
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Oakland County, Michigan projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
0
10
20
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 16,885 (91) -- Deaths: 1,146 (2) -- Case Mortality: 6.8% -- Daily Change: +0.1% Cases, +4.1% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 44

45. Washtenaw County, Michigan (Ann Arbor)
2,938
117
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Washtenaw County, Michigan (Ann Arbor) projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
20
40
60
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,722 (26) -- Deaths: 115 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.2% -- Daily Change: -1.3% Cases, +3.1% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 45

46. Wayne County (Detroit)
31,020
2,880
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Wayne County (Detroit) projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 29,622 (105) -- Deaths: 2,852 (5) -- Case Mortality: 9.6% -- Daily Change: +0.9% Cases, +0.3% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 46

47. St. Louis (City)
6,700
192
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Louis (City) projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,773 (45) -- Deaths: 181 (0) -- Case Mortality: 3.1% -- Daily Change: -5.2% Cases, -7.1% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 47

48. St. Louis (County)
21,296
763
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Louis (County) projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
400
500
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 18,001 (211) -- Deaths: 731 (5) -- Case Mortality: 4.1% -- Daily Change: -1.1% Cases, +6.5% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 48

49. Baltimore (City)
15,443
475
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Baltimore (City) projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 13,708 (65) -- Deaths: 445 (1) -- Case Mortality: 3.2% -- Daily Change: -5.5% Cases, -4.8% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 49

50. Durham County
6,945
83
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Durham County projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
20
40
60
80
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,508 (47) -- Deaths: 81 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.2% -- Daily Change: -2.6% Cases, -2.3% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 50

51. Cuyahoga County (Cleveland)
16,135
597
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
250
0.0
5.0
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 14,673 (88) -- Deaths: 544 (2) -- Case Mortality: 3.7% -- Daily Change: -2.6% Cases, +0.7% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 51

52. Miami-Dade
166,741
2,617
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Miami-Dade projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 149,162 (1,069) -- Deaths: 2,185 (19) -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: -2.9% Cases, +1.8% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 52

53. Maricopa County
138,696
3,267
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Maricopa County projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
0
50
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 130,800 (416) -- Deaths: 2,739 (42) -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: -5.4% Cases, -0.3% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 53

54. Denver County
11,398
428
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Denver County projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 10,732 (41) -- Deaths: 421 (0) -- Case Mortality: 3.9% -- Daily Change: -3.8% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 54

55. Arapahoe County
8,187
365
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Arapahoe County projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
250
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,706 (37) -- Deaths: 364 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.7% -- Daily Change: -2.3% Cases, -25.4% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 55

56. Montrose County
368
13
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Montrose County projection as of 2020-08-21
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 329 (1) -- Deaths: 13 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.0% -- Daily Change: -7.0% Cases, NaN% Deaths
2020-08-21 US Counties: 56