This document contains graphs and data on COVID-19 cases and projections for various US counties and regions as of July 27, 2020. It shows trends in new daily cases, case growth rates, total cases and deaths as a percentage of population, case mortality rates, and modeled projections for future case and death rates. Counties and regions discussed include New York City, Los Angeles, the San Francisco Bay Area, and others across California, New Jersey, and Washington.

1. US Counties
75

2. Change in New Cases per Day
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
NA
Trends by county as of 2020-07-27
NA = Inadequate data
76

3. Percent Change by Partisan Lean
-10
-5
0
5
10
0 25 50 75 100
Percent Republican
Percentchangeinnewcasesperday
25
50
75
Republican
Counties by 2016 presidential election results
Dark green line is a Friedman's supersmoother
77

4. Percent Change by Population
-10
-5
0
5
10
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
Population
Percentchangeinnewcasesperday
25
50
75
Republican
Counties by Population
Dark green line is a Friedman's 'super smoother'
78

5. Partisan Lean vs Population and Direction
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
0 25 50 75 100
Percent Republican
Population
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
Partisan Lean vs Population and Direction
Dark green line is a Friedman's 'super smoother'
79

6. Cases as a Percent of Population
0.001%
0.01%
0.1%
1%
10%
20%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Totalcases
Total Cases as a Percent of County Population
Slanted lines are counties with small integer numbers of cases, green line: Friedman's 'super smoother'
80

7. Deaths as a Percent of Population
0.0001%
0.001%
0.01%
0.1%
1%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Totaldeaths
Total Deaths as a Percent of County Population
Slanted lines are counties with small integer numbers of cases, green line: Friedman's 'super smoother'
81

8. Case Mortality vs. Population
0.1%
1%
10%
100%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Casemortality
Case Mortality vs. County Population
82

9. New York City
233,173
24,030
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
New York City projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0
200
400
600
800
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 223,761 (229) -- Deaths: 23,485 (9) -- Case Mortality: 10.5% -- Daily Change: -0.4% Cases, -3.0% Deaths
83

10. Westchester County, NY
36,717
1,472
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Westchester County, NY projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 35,777 (39) -- Deaths: 1,443 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.0% -- Daily Change: +0.6% Cases, -0.8% Deaths
84

11. Bergen County, NJ
20,935
2,101
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Bergen County, NJ projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
300
600
900
1,200
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 20,226 (34) -- Deaths: 2,044 (0) -- Case Mortality: 10.1% -- Daily Change: +3.2% Cases, +0.6% Deaths
85

12. Hudson County, NJ
19,348
1,587
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Hudson County, NJ projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
300
600
900
1,200
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 19,363 (30) -- Deaths: 1,501 (1) -- Case Mortality: 7.8% -- Daily Change: +32.3% Cases, -14.5% Deaths
86

13. King County (Seattle)
20,808
673
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
King County (Seattle) projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 14,417 (168) -- Deaths: 644 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.5% -- Daily Change: +0.8% Cases, +5.5% Deaths
87

14. Clark County, Washington
2,185
41
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Clark County, Washington projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
20
40
60
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,328 (10) -- Deaths: 34 (1) -- Case Mortality: 2.6% -- Daily Change: -2.0% Cases, -2.7% Deaths
88

15. Los Angeles
302,685
6,385
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Los Angeles projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 174,017 (1,692) -- Deaths: 4,360 (9) -- Case Mortality: 2.5% -- Daily Change: -2.6% Cases, -0.8% Deaths
89

16. Bay Area
56,802
716
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Bay Area projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 31,084 (486) -- Deaths: 479 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: -1.5% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
90

17. San Francisco
10,270
69
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Francisco projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,932 (145) -- Deaths: 56 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.9% -- Daily Change: +2.0% Cases, +8.6% Deaths
91

18. Santa Clara and San Mateo
25,329
364
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Santa Clara and San Mateo projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 14,063 (208) -- Deaths: 301 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: -0.7% Cases, -8.2% Deaths
92

19. Alameda County
17,083
283
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Alameda County projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 10,330 (0) -- Deaths: 178 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.7% -- Daily Change: -2.7% Cases, +2.3% Deaths
93

20. San Luis Obispo, California
3,162
88
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Luis Obispo, California projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
30
60
90
0.0
2.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,500 (0) -- Deaths: 8 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.5% -- Daily Change: -4.2% Cases, -0.6% Deaths
94

21. Fresno, California
25,169
210
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Fresno, California projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 12,564 (0) -- Deaths: 112 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.9% -- Daily Change: +0.7% Cases, +2.4% Deaths
95

22. Santa Barbara County
10,453
38
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Santa Barbara County projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
400
500
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,576 (0) -- Deaths: 32 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.6% -- Daily Change: -3.1% Cases, -20.5% Deaths
96

23. Merced County
6,790
186
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Merced County projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,245 (0) -- Deaths: 27 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.8% -- Daily Change: -0.5% Cases, +5.6% Deaths
97

24. Yolo County
1,987
40
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Yolo County projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
20
40
60
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,394 (52) -- Deaths: 40 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.9% -- Daily Change: +0.0% Cases, +39.6% Deaths
98

25. San Diego County
46,112
939
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Diego County projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 26,701 (603) -- Deaths: 533 (9) -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: -2.1% Cases, +1.6% Deaths
99

26. Riverside County
62,791
1,020
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Riverside County projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 33,467 (0) -- Deaths: 637 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: -3.0% Cases, -0.5% Deaths
100

27. Imperial County
10,494
397
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Imperial County projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 9,067 (0) -- Deaths: 181 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: -3.8% Cases, -0.3% Deaths
101

28. Multnomah County (Portland)
7,151
100
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Multnomah County (Portland) projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
25
50
75
100
125
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,921 (38) -- Deaths: 82 (1) -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: -2.0% Cases, +12.9% Deaths
102

29. Utah County
12,602
51
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Utah County projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,194 (96) -- Deaths: 31 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.4% -- Daily Change: +1.2% Cases, -13.1% Deaths
103

30. Summit County, Utah
927
1
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Summit County, Utah projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 669 (6) -- Deaths: 1 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.1% -- Daily Change: -1.9% Cases, NaN% Deaths
104

31. De Soto Parish, Louisiana
958
35
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
De Soto Parish, Louisiana projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 571 (19) -- Deaths: 24 (1) -- Case Mortality: 4.2% -- Daily Change: +2.5% Cases, +5.4% Deaths
105

32. St. Francois County, Missouri
383
2
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Francois County, Missouri projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 234 (9) -- Deaths: 2 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.9% -- Daily Change: +7.3% Cases, NaN% Deaths
106

33. Dallas, Texas
60,617
1,261
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Dallas, Texas projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
30
60
90
120
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 46,813 (800) -- Deaths: 605 (1) -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: -0.8% Cases, +2.3% Deaths
107

34. Collin Texas
11,209
164
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Collin Texas projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,762 (14) -- Deaths: 74 (1) -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: -7.9% Cases, +2.3% Deaths
108

35. Harris County (Houston)
102,830
1,525
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Harris County (Houston) projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
25
50
75
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 65,344 (1,236) -- Deaths: 645 (8) -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: -1.4% Cases, +3.1% Deaths
109

36. Tulsa County, Oklahoma
14,436
147
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tulsa County, Oklahoma projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,557 (250) -- Deaths: 90 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.2% -- Daily Change: +2.5% Cases, -3.6% Deaths
110

37. McLean County, Illinois
836
18
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
McLean County, Illinois projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 461 (5) -- Deaths: 15 (0) -- Case Mortality: 3.3% -- Daily Change: +1.7% Cases, -22.3% Deaths
111

38. Cook County, Illinois
116,862
5,202
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Cook County, Illinois projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 102,583 (628) -- Deaths: 4,830 (1) -- Case Mortality: 4.7% -- Daily Change: +2.4% Cases, -2.1% Deaths
112

39. Suffolk County (Boston)
22,064
1,125
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Suffolk County (Boston) projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 20,896 (69) -- Deaths: 1,048 (2) -- Case Mortality: 5.0% -- Daily Change: +2.4% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
113

40. Polk County, Iowa
14,236
217
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Polk County, Iowa projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 9,080 (95) -- Deaths: 191 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: -2.5% Cases, -8.7% Deaths
114

41. Johnson County, Iowa
2,639
13
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Johnson County, Iowa projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
20
40
0.0
1.0
2.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,751 (16) -- Deaths: 10 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.6% -- Daily Change: -4.0% Cases, +1.4% Deaths
115

42. Erie County, New York
9,548
721
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Erie County, New York projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 8,301 (19) -- Deaths: 663 (0) -- Case Mortality: 8.0% -- Daily Change: -1.3% Cases, -3.6% Deaths
116

43. Oakland County, Michigan
16,783
1,191
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Oakland County, Michigan projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
0
10
20
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 14,035 (212) -- Deaths: 1,127 (0) -- Case Mortality: 8.0% -- Daily Change: +0.9% Cases, +0.3% Deaths
117

44. St. Louis (City)
6,692
178
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Louis (City) projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
40
80
120
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,901 (6) -- Deaths: 164 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.2% -- Daily Change: +0.4% Cases, -1.4% Deaths
118

45. St. Louis (County)
19,040
724
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Louis (County) projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
0
10
20
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 11,535 (529) -- Deaths: 645 (0) -- Case Mortality: 5.6% -- Daily Change: +8.8% Cases, +4.9% Deaths
119

46. Baltimore (City)
14,865
507
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Baltimore (City) projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 10,353 (143) -- Deaths: 400 (3) -- Case Mortality: 3.9% -- Daily Change: +2.3% Cases, +2.2% Deaths
120

47. Durham County
8,335
98
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Durham County projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
30
60
90
0.0
2.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,487 (51) -- Deaths: 76 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: -1.8% Cases, -0.4% Deaths
121

48. Cuyahoga County (Cleveland)
20,150
627
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 11,697 (113) -- Deaths: 450 (0) -- Case Mortality: 3.8% -- Daily Change: -2.6% Cases, +3.5% Deaths
122

49. Wayne County (Detroit)
30,494
2,904
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Wayne County (Detroit) projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 26,084 (207) -- Deaths: 2,789 (0) -- Case Mortality: 10.7% -- Daily Change: -0.4% Cases, -6.8% Deaths
123

50. Miami-Dade
187,016
2,458
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Miami-Dade projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 104,755 (2,901) -- Deaths: 1,388 (9) -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: +1.0% Cases, -3.7% Deaths
124

51. Maricopa County
197,583
6,798
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Maricopa County projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 108,677 (1,386) -- Deaths: 1,808 (15) -- Case Mortality: 1.7% -- Daily Change: -1.1% Cases, +1.3% Deaths
125

52. Denver County
11,953
445
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Denver County projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 9,205 (104) -- Deaths: 405 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.4% -- Daily Change: +5.7% Cases, +0.2% Deaths
126

53. Arapahoe County
8,370
383
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Arapahoe County projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
250
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,541 (71) -- Deaths: 360 (0) -- Case Mortality: 5.5% -- Daily Change: +4.8% Cases, +8.8% Deaths
127

54. Montrose County
336
15
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Montrose County projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 262 (7) -- Deaths: 13 (0) -- Case Mortality: 5.0% -- Daily Change: +8.1% Cases, +16.6% Deaths
128