This is my daily update for COVID-19 trends for July 9, 2020. Prior analyses and the R program code can be found at https://github.com/StevenLShafer/COVID19

1. Caveats and Comments
1
Overview:
This is my analysis, not Stanford’s. It is simply a set of regressions in R to understand the trajectory of COVID. It is not confidential and can be freely shared. The R
program code and all previous PowerPoint files are available at https://github.com/StevenLShafer/COVID19/. Please contact me at steven.shafer@Stanford.edu if
you would like to be added or removed from the recipient list. Suggestions are most welcome! You are welcome to use the R code on GitHub for any purpose. If
you create new graphs, please let me know, as I may want to add them to my analyses.
I am attempting to keep the analysis and commentary apolitical. I am now including partisan lean as a metric. This is just more data to understand the COVID
epidemic. I occasionally point out misrepresentations by government officials. Additionally, as the crisis has worsened, I will point out where government
recommendations have placed Americans at increasing risk.
I try to provide a daily update in the morning. However, as an anesthesiologist at Stanford, when I have clinical duties my analysis my be delayed.
There is a lot of information on the figures. If something isn’t clear, please see the explanation on slide 2.
Data sources:
• USA Case Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv
• USA Death Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv
• USA Testing and Hospitalization Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/COVID19Tracking/covid-tracking-data/master/data/states_daily_4pm_et.csv
• Global Case Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_global.csv
• Global Death Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv
• Global Testing Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/owid/covid-19-data/master/public/data/owid-covid-data.csv
• Mobility Data: https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/Global_Mobility_Report.csv
• Partisan Lean: MIT Election Data and Science Lab: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/VOQCHQ/HEIJCQ
• Ensemble Model: https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/raw/master/data-processed/COVIDhub-ensemble/2020-xx-xx-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv
Models:
1. Future projections of case numbers are based on the Gompertz function: log 𝑐𝑢𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 = 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 + 𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 − 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 1 −

2. 2,586,092
152,804
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
USA projection as of 2020-05-27
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,662,302 (32,123) -- Deaths: 98,220 (829) -- Case Mortality: 5.9% -- Daily Change in Cases: -0.5%
Explanation of the Figures
2
Brown dots:
cumulative tests
Red dots: cumulative cases
used to estimate Gompertz
function, presently set to last
3 weeks
Red line: predicted cumulative
cases based on the Gompertz
function estimated from the red
dots
Red number: total cases
on June 30th, based on
the Gompertz function
estimated from the red
dots
Black number: total
cases on Jyly 31th,
based on log-linear
regression of the past
21 days
Black line: predicted
cumulative deaths, based
on a log linear regression
of deaths over past 21
days.
Axis for deaths / day, usually
1/10th of the axis for cases /
day on the left side of the
figure.
Green line: linear regression
over 8 days, used to calculate
percent increase / decrease
(see below)
Daily change in cases,
calculated as the slope of the
green line (above left) /
number of new cases
yesterday.
Case mortality:
cumulative deaths
/ cumulative cases.
Cases / day calculated
from cumulative cases
used to estimate the
Gompertz function
Cases / day calculated
from cumulative cases
not used to estimate the
Gompertz function
Deaths / day,
axis is on the left
Blue line: today
Blue dots: cumulative cases not
used to estimate Gompertz
function
Cumulative cases
(yesterday’s cases)
and cumulative deaths
(yesterday’s deaths)
Axis for cases / day.
Axis for deaths / day
appears to the right.
Geographic
location
Date of analysis,
also shown as
blue vertical line
below
Purple wedge: 98% ensemble
prediction interval from COVID-19
Forecast Hub (USA and US
States only)

3. US v. Asia and Europe
3

4. USA
4,115,545
149,768
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
USA projection as of 2020-07-09
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,054,699 (58,601) -- Deaths: 132,300 (820) -- Case Mortality: 4.3% -- Daily Change: +2.7% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
4

5. Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam
40,505
1,376
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam projection as of 2020-07-09
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 37,120 (255) -- Deaths: 1,327 (3) -- Case Mortality: 3.6% -- Daily Change: +1.5% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
5

6. Western Europe
1,404,744
169,436
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Western Europe projection as of 2020-07-09
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,354,157 (2,209) -- Deaths: 164,758 (166) -- Case Mortality: 12.2% -- Daily Change: +1.1% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
6

7. US States
7

8. Change in New Cases per Day
New cases are:
Increasing > +3%
Increasing between +1% and +3%
No Change (-1% to +1%)
Decreasing between -1% and -3%
Decreasing > -3%
New cases by state as of 2020-07-09
8

9. Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
PercentofPeak
Daily Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
9

10. Change in New Deaths per Day
New deaths are:
Increasing > +0.5%
Increasing between +0.1% and +0.5%
No Change (-0.1% to +0.1%)
Decreasing between -0.1% and -0.5%
Decreasing > -0.5%
New deaths by state as of 2020-07-09
10

11. Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
PercentofPeak
Daily Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
11

12. Deaths per million
VT
HI
MT
WV
WY
CO
ID
ME
WI
OR
AK
OK
NE
KS
CT
DE
IA
MI
NC
ND
SD
WA
MO
MN
UT
KY
OH
GA
NH
NY
AR
TN
PA
IN
MD
NM
TX
NV
CA
VA
FL
DC
RI
MA
AL
LA
SC
IL
NJ
MS
AZ
0
2
4
6
0 10 20 30 40 50
State
Averagedeathsperdaypermillionpopulation
Averaged over past 7 days
US COVID-19 Death Rates
12

13. Total deaths per million
HI
MT
AK
WY
WV
OR
ID
UT
ME
VT
TX
KS
TN
AR
OK
SD
ND
KY
WI
NC
NE
CA
SC
MO
NV
FL
WA
AL
VA
IA
NM
OH
AZ
MN
GA
NH
CO
MS
IN
DE
PA
MD
IL
MI
LA
DC
RI
MA
CT
NY
NJ
0
500
1000
1500
0 10 20 30 40 50
State
Totaldeathspermillionpopulation
Total deaths per million as of yesterday
US COVID-19 Death Rates
13

14. Percent Population Tested
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
PercentPopulationTested
Testing as a Percent of State Population
14

15. Testing trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Numberofdailytestsfrommintomax
Testing trends from min to max
15

16. Percent Positive Tests
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
PercentPositive(%)
Percent Positive Tests Over Last 28 Days
16

17. Positive fraction trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Fractionpositivefrommintomax
Positive fraction trends from min to max
17

18. Hospitalizations trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Hospitalizationsfrommintomax
Hospitalizations trends from min to max
18

19. Case Mortality vs. Testing
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
DC
FL
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TNTX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WVWI
WY
2.5
5.0
7.5
10 15 20
% Tested
%Mortality
Mortality vs. Testing as of 2020-07-09
19

20. Alabama
71,869
1,425
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Alabama projection as of 2020-07-09
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
25
50
75
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 46,962 (1,177) -- Deaths: 1,058 (25) -- Case Mortality: 2.3% -- Daily Change: -0.7% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
20

21. Alaska
1,999
26
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Alaska projection as of 2020-07-09
0
10
20
30
40
50
0.0
1.0
2.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,222 (42) -- Deaths: 17 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: -2.3% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
21

22. Arizona
186,968
3,229
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Arizona projection as of 2020-07-09
0
2,000
4,000
0
100
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 108,614 (3,520) -- Deaths: 1,963 (36) -- Case Mortality: 1.8% -- Daily Change: +0.0% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
22

23. Arkansas
35,001
472
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Arkansas projection as of 2020-07-09
0
250
500
750
1,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 25,246 (734) -- Deaths: 305 (4) -- Case Mortality: 1.2% -- Daily Change: -1.4% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
23

24. California
450,165
8,494
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
California projection as of 2020-07-09
0
5,000
10,000
0
200
400
600
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 292,560 (8,548) -- Deaths: 6,718 (145) -- Case Mortality: 2.3% -- Daily Change: +7.2% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
24

25. Colorado
40,317
1,799
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Colorado projection as of 2020-07-09
0
250
500
750
1,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 35,099 (452) -- Deaths: 1,704 (3) -- Case Mortality: 4.9% -- Daily Change: +6.0% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
25

26. Connecticut
48,621
4,490
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Connecticut projection as of 2020-07-09
0
1,000
2,000
0
50
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 47,108 (75) -- Deaths: 4,343 (5) -- Case Mortality: 9.2% -- Daily Change: +4.9% Cases, -0.5% Deaths
26

27. Delaware
14,510
659
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Delaware projection as of 2020-07-09
0
500
1,000
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 12,462 (48) -- Deaths: 515 (1) -- Case Mortality: 4.1% -- Daily Change: -2.3% Cases, -0.5% Deaths
27

28. District of Columbia
11,274
610
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
District of Columbia projection as of 2020-07-09
0
100
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 10,642 (73) -- Deaths: 564 (3) -- Case Mortality: 5.3% -- Daily Change: +9.5% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
28

29. Florida
474,378
5,100
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Florida projection as of 2020-07-09
0
5,000
10,000
0
200
400
600
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 223,783 (9,989) -- Deaths: 3,889 (48) -- Case Mortality: 1.7% -- Daily Change: +0.4% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
29

30. Georgia
156,922
3,332
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Georgia projection as of 2020-07-09
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 103,890 (3,420) -- Deaths: 2,922 (23) -- Case Mortality: 2.8% -- Daily Change: +2.4% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
30

31. Hawaii
1,452
23
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Hawaii projection as of 2020-07-09
0
10
20
30
40
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,094 (23) -- Deaths: 19 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.7% -- Daily Change: +7.0% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
31

32. Idaho
18,611
103
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Idaho projection as of 2020-07-09
0
200
400
0
10
20
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 8,969 (430) -- Deaths: 98 (4) -- Case Mortality: 1.1% -- Daily Change: +5.2% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
32

33. Illinois
165,378
8,019
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Illinois projection as of 2020-07-09
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 150,554 (980) -- Deaths: 7,309 (36) -- Case Mortality: 4.9% -- Daily Change: +5.8% Cases, +0.2% Deaths
33

34. Indiana
57,497
3,012
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Indiana projection as of 2020-07-09
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 49,063 (437) -- Deaths: 2,732 (15) -- Case Mortality: 5.6% -- Daily Change: -3.6% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
34

35. Iowa
41,975
805
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Iowa projection as of 2020-07-09
0
200
400
600
800
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 32,624 (471) -- Deaths: 736 (4) -- Case Mortality: 2.3% -- Daily Change: -1.3% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
35

36. Kansas
24,459
344
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Kansas projection as of 2020-07-09
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 17,332 (472) -- Deaths: 289 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.7% -- Daily Change: +4.0% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
36

37. Kentucky
22,815
727
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Kentucky projection as of 2020-07-09
0
200
400
600
800
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 17,919 (400) -- Deaths: 608 (6) -- Case Mortality: 3.4% -- Daily Change: +13.9% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
37

38. Louisiana
96,857
3,663
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Louisiana projection as of 2020-07-09
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
30
60
90
120
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 70,151 (1,888) -- Deaths: 3,339 (20) -- Case Mortality: 4.8% -- Daily Change: +6.5% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
38

39. Maine
4,209
119
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Maine projection as of 2020-07-09
0
20
40
60
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,460 (20) -- Deaths: 110 (0) -- Case Mortality: 3.2% -- Daily Change: -11.0% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
39

40. Maryland
78,547
3,611
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Maryland projection as of 2020-07-09
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 70,861 (465) -- Deaths: 3,275 (9) -- Case Mortality: 4.6% -- Daily Change: +1.1% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
40

41. Massachusetts
114,567
8,846
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Massachusetts projection as of 2020-07-09
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 110,602 (264) -- Deaths: 8,243 (30) -- Case Mortality: 7.5% -- Daily Change: +1.2% Cases, -0.4% Deaths
41

42. Michigan
81,659
6,494
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Michigan projection as of 2020-07-09
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 74,551 (651) -- Deaths: 6,262 (11) -- Case Mortality: 8.4% -- Daily Change: +5.0% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
42

43. Minnesota
48,386
1,713
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Minnesota projection as of 2020-07-09
0
200
400
600
800
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 39,589 (456) -- Deaths: 1,523 (9) -- Case Mortality: 3.8% -- Daily Change: +4.6% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
43

44. Mississippi
50,462
1,514
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Mississippi projection as of 2020-07-09
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 32,888 (674) -- Deaths: 1,188 (30) -- Case Mortality: 3.6% -- Daily Change: -0.9% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
44

45. Missouri
35,927
1,217
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Missouri projection as of 2020-07-09
0
200
400
600
800
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 25,590 (672) -- Deaths: 1,069 (2) -- Case Mortality: 4.2% -- Daily Change: +5.8% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
45

46. Montana
2,672
28
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Montana projection as of 2020-07-09
0
25
50
75
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,371 (44) -- Deaths: 23 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.7% -- Daily Change: +2.6% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
46

47. Nebraska
23,604
364
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Nebraska projection as of 2020-07-09
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 20,425 (224) -- Deaths: 284 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: +2.3% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
47

48. Nevada
45,687
640
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Nevada projection as of 2020-07-09
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 24,301 (516) -- Deaths: 553 (5) -- Case Mortality: 2.3% -- Daily Change: -2.0% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
48

49. New Hampshire
6,487
470
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Hampshire projection as of 2020-07-09
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,952 (20) -- Deaths: 386 (2) -- Case Mortality: 6.5% -- Daily Change: -2.4% Cases, -0.8% Deaths
49

50. New Jersey
179,803
20,268
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Jersey projection as of 2020-07-09
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 174,039 (161) -- Deaths: 15,332 (51) -- Case Mortality: 8.8% -- Daily Change: -5.3% Cases, -8.0% Deaths
50

51. New Mexico
18,655
611
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Mexico projection as of 2020-07-09
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 14,017 (290) -- Deaths: 527 (8) -- Case Mortality: 3.8% -- Daily Change: +3.7% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
51

52. New York
411,337
33,037
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New York projection as of 2020-07-09
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
0
250
500
750
1,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 398,929 (692) -- Deaths: 32,251 (8) -- Case Mortality: 8.1% -- Daily Change: -1.0% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
52

53. North Carolina
117,185
1,864
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
North Carolina projection as of 2020-07-09
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
30
60
90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 77,687 (1,397) -- Deaths: 1,462 (16) -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: -0.2% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
53

54. North Dakota
4,769
91
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
North Dakota projection as of 2020-07-09
0
25
50
75
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,971 (73) -- Deaths: 85 (1) -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: +3.7% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
54

55. Ohio
81,561
3,418
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Ohio projection as of 2020-07-09
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 60,181 (1,277) -- Deaths: 2,991 (21) -- Case Mortality: 5.0% -- Daily Change: +1.7% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
55

56. Oklahoma
28,877
462
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Oklahoma projection as of 2020-07-09
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 17,894 (674) -- Deaths: 407 (3) -- Case Mortality: 2.3% -- Daily Change: +7.4% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
56

57. Oregon
16,985
270
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Oregon projection as of 2020-07-09
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 10,817 (212) -- Deaths: 224 (4) -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: -3.4% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
57

58. Pennsylvania
108,774
7,402
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Pennsylvania projection as of 2020-07-09
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 96,725 (827) -- Deaths: 6,812 (25) -- Case Mortality: 7.0% -- Daily Change: +3.1% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
58

59. Rhode Island
18,032
1,095
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Rhode Island projection as of 2020-07-09
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 17,204 (50) -- Deaths: 971 (2) -- Case Mortality: 5.6% -- Daily Change: +8.8% Cases, -0.5% Deaths
59

60. South Carolina
94,476
1,257
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Carolina projection as of 2020-07-09
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
25
50
75
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 48,909 (1,557) -- Deaths: 884 (38) -- Case Mortality: 1.8% -- Daily Change: -2.9% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
60

61. South Dakota
8,465
134
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Dakota projection as of 2020-07-09
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,242 (79) -- Deaths: 98 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: +1.5% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
61

62. Tennessee
83,400
943
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Tennessee projection as of 2020-07-09
0
1,000
2,000
0
50
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 55,986 (2,472) -- Deaths: 685 (20) -- Case Mortality: 1.2% -- Daily Change: +3.1% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
62

63. Texas
365,436
3,836
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Texas projection as of 2020-07-09
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
0
200
400
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 224,929 (8,903) -- Deaths: 2,875 (97) -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: +4.3% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
63

64. Utah
41,241
255
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Utah projection as of 2020-07-09
0
200
400
600
800
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 26,755 (722) -- Deaths: 201 (7) -- Case Mortality: 0.8% -- Daily Change: +1.5% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
64

65. Vermont
1,388
56
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Vermont projection as of 2020-07-09
0
10
20
30
40
50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,256 (2) -- Deaths: 56 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.5% -- Daily Change: -7.1% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
65

66. Virginia
79,291
2,379
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Virginia projection as of 2020-07-09
0
400
800
1,200
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 67,375 (635) -- Deaths: 1,905 (24) -- Case Mortality: 2.8% -- Daily Change: +0.7% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
66

67. Washington
51,156
1,564
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Washington projection as of 2020-07-09
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 37,941 (521) -- Deaths: 1,394 (10) -- Case Mortality: 3.7% -- Daily Change: +1.3% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
67

68. West Virginia
4,921
104
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
West Virginia projection as of 2020-07-09
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,707 (202) -- Deaths: 95 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.6% -- Daily Change: +14.0% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
68

69. Wisconsin
44,891
918
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Wisconsin projection as of 2020-07-09
0
200
400
600
800
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 33,154 (598) -- Deaths: 807 (2) -- Case Mortality: 2.4% -- Daily Change: -0.3% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
69

70. Wyoming
2,552
22
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Wyoming projection as of 2020-07-09
0
10
20
30
40
50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,740 (31) -- Deaths: 21 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.2% -- Daily Change: +1.6% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
70

71. US Counties
71

72. Change in New Cases per Day
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
NA
Trends by county as of 2020-07-09
NA = Inadequate data
72

73. Percent Change by Partisan Lean
-10
-5
0
5
10
0 25 50 75 100
Percent Republican
Percentchangeinnewcasesperday
25
50
75
Republican
Counties by 2016 presidential election results
Dark green line is a Friedman's supersmoother
73

74. Percent Change by Population
-10
-5
0
5
10
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
Population
Percentchangeinnewcasesperday
25
50
75
Republican
Counties by Population
Dark green line is a Friedman's 'super smoother'
74

75. Partisan Lean vs Population and Direction
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
0 25 50 75 100
Percent Republican
Population
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
Partisan Lean vs Population and Direction
Dark green line is a Friedman's 'super smoother'
75

76. Cases as a Percent of Population
0.001%
0.01%
0.1%
1%
10%
20%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Totalcases
Total Cases as a Percent of County Population
Slanted lines are counties with small integer numbers of cases, green line: Friedman's 'super smoother'
76

77. Deaths as a Percent of Population
0.0001%
0.001%
0.01%
0.1%
1%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Totaldeaths
Total Deaths as a Percent of County Population
Slanted lines are counties with small integer numbers of cases, green line: Friedman's 'super smoother'
77

78. Case Mortality vs. Population
0.1%
1%
10%
100%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Casemortality
Case Mortality vs. County Population
78

79. New York City
223,980
23,718
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
New York City projection as of 2020-07-09
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0
200
400
600
800
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 217,777 (289) -- Deaths: 23,224 (6) -- Case Mortality: 10.7% -- Daily Change: -2.5% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
79

80. Westchester County, NY
35,845
1,455
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Westchester County, NY projection as of 2020-07-09
0
500
1,000
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 35,154 (48) -- Deaths: 1,431 (1) -- Case Mortality: 4.1% -- Daily Change: -0.5% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
80

81. Bergen County, NJ
20,527
2,694
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Bergen County, NJ projection as of 2020-07-09
0
2,000
4,000
0
100
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 19,732 (56) -- Deaths: 2,010 (1) -- Case Mortality: 10.2% -- Daily Change: +0.9% Cases, -8.1% Deaths
81

82. Hudson County, NJ
19,413
1,790
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Hudson County, NJ projection as of 2020-07-09
0
1,000
2,000
0
50
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 19,333 (0) -- Deaths: 1,462 (2) -- Case Mortality: 7.6% -- Daily Change: +0.0% Cases, -137.2% Deaths
82

83. King County (Seattle)
14,044
659
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
King County (Seattle) projection as of 2020-07-09
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 11,284 (102) -- Deaths: 628 (2) -- Case Mortality: 5.6% -- Daily Change: -3.8% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
83

84. Clark County, Washington
1,402
31
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Clark County, Washington projection as of 2020-07-09
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 990 (28) -- Deaths: 30 (0) -- Case Mortality: 3.0% -- Daily Change: -1.5% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
84

85. Los Angeles
179,068
4,393
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Los Angeles projection as of 2020-07-09
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
0
100
200
300
400
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 123,256 (2,492) -- Deaths: 3,643 (61) -- Case Mortality: 3.0% -- Daily Change: +7.3% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
85

86. Bay Area
31,351
447
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Bay Area projection as of 2020-07-09
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 20,460 (541) -- Deaths: 397 (2) -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: +3.7% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
86

87. San Francisco
5,382
55
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Francisco projection as of 2020-07-09
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 4,071 (51) -- Deaths: 50 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.2% -- Daily Change: +7.7% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
87

88. Santa Clara and San Mateo
13,659
302
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Santa Clara and San Mateo projection as of 2020-07-09
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 9,295 (125) -- Deaths: 276 (0) -- Case Mortality: 3.0% -- Daily Change: -5.2% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
88

89. Alameda County
10,464
186
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Alameda County projection as of 2020-07-09
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,245 (320) -- Deaths: 142 (2) -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: +2.3% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
89

90. San Luis Obispo, California
1,672
7
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Luis Obispo, California projection as of 2020-07-09
0
20
40
60
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 845 (37) -- Deaths: 3 (1) -- Case Mortality: 0.4% -- Daily Change: +7.4% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
90

91. Fresno, California
14,156
106
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Fresno, California projection as of 2020-07-09
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,281 (357) -- Deaths: 84 (3) -- Case Mortality: 1.2% -- Daily Change: +11.7% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
91

92. Santa Barbara County
5,691
44
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Santa Barbara County projection as of 2020-07-09
0
200
400
0
10
20
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,808 (66) -- Deaths: 30 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.8% -- Daily Change: +15.4% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
92

93. Merced County
3,685
17
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Merced County projection as of 2020-07-09
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,623 (0) -- Deaths: 11 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.7% -- Daily Change: +8.8% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
93

94. Yolo County
1,640
40
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Yolo County projection as of 2020-07-09
0
20
40
60
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 760 (37) -- Deaths: 40 (0) -- Case Mortality: 5.3% -- Daily Change: +5.4% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
94

95. San Diego County
29,990
504
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Diego County projection as of 2020-07-09
0
300
600
900
0
20
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 17,842 (264) -- Deaths: 406 (7) -- Case Mortality: 2.3% -- Daily Change: +1.4% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
95

96. Riverside County
35,081
646
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Riverside County projection as of 2020-07-09
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 21,957 (856) -- Deaths: 515 (9) -- Case Mortality: 2.3% -- Daily Change: +6.0% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
96

97. Imperial County
10,048
310
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Imperial County projection as of 2020-07-09
0
100
200
300
400
500
0
10
20
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,464 (121) -- Deaths: 125 (4) -- Case Mortality: 1.7% -- Daily Change: -2.2% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
97

98. Multnomah County (Portland)
3,880
73
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Multnomah County (Portland) projection as of 2020-07-09
0
25
50
75
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,608 (28) -- Deaths: 72 (2) -- Case Mortality: 2.8% -- Daily Change: -2.3% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
98

99. Utah County
7,614
31
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Utah County projection as of 2020-07-09
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 4,894 (133) -- Deaths: 27 (3) -- Case Mortality: 0.6% -- Daily Change: +2.1% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
99

100. Summit County, Utah
623
1
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Summit County, Utah projection as of 2020-07-09
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 543 (5) -- Deaths: 1 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.2% -- Daily Change: +5.4% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
100

101. De Soto Parish, Louisiana
492
22
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
De Soto Parish, Louisiana projection as of 2020-07-09
0
10
20
30
40
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 394 (4) -- Deaths: 19 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.8% -- Daily Change: +11.6% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
101

102. Dallas, Texas
43,192
617
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Dallas, Texas projection as of 2020-07-09
0
500
1,000
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 29,160 (1,029) -- Deaths: 426 (16) -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: +5.8% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
102

103. Collin Texas
5,977
65
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Collin Texas projection as of 2020-07-09
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,825 (118) -- Deaths: 50 (3) -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: +3.9% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
103

104. Harris County (Houston)
52,935
592
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Harris County (Houston) projection as of 2020-07-09
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
30
60
90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 40,012 (701) -- Deaths: 411 (4) -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: +1.1% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
104

105. Tulsa County, Oklahoma
6,198
83
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tulsa County, Oklahoma projection as of 2020-07-09
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 4,571 (206) -- Deaths: 72 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.6% -- Daily Change: +8.4% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
105

106. McLean County, Illinois
325
13
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
McLean County, Illinois projection as of 2020-07-09
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 292 (3) -- Deaths: 14 (1) -- Case Mortality: 4.8% -- Daily Change: +8.2% Cases, +0.7% Deaths
106

107. Cook County, Illinois
101,005
5,088
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Cook County, Illinois projection as of 2020-07-09
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 93,496 (443) -- Deaths: 4,664 (13) -- Case Mortality: 5.0% -- Daily Change: -2.8% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
107

108. Suffolk County (Boston)
20,683
1,078
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Suffolk County (Boston) projection as of 2020-07-09
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 20,120 (72) -- Deaths: 1,012 (3) -- Case Mortality: 5.0% -- Daily Change: +7.7% Cases, -0.8% Deaths
108

109. Polk County, Iowa
8,523
206
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Polk County, Iowa projection as of 2020-07-09
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,827 (88) -- Deaths: 181 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.7% -- Daily Change: +0.0% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
109

110. Johnson County, Iowa
2,423
9
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Johnson County, Iowa projection as of 2020-07-09
0
25
50
75
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,363 (23) -- Deaths: 9 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.7% -- Daily Change: -8.2% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
110

111. Erie County, New York
8,247
680
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Erie County, New York projection as of 2020-07-09
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,596 (52) -- Deaths: 639 (0) -- Case Mortality: 8.4% -- Daily Change: +2.6% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
111

112. Oakland County, Michigan
13,207
1,124
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Oakland County, Michigan projection as of 2020-07-09
0
200
400
0
10
20
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 12,408 (88) -- Deaths: 1,096 (1) -- Case Mortality: 8.8% -- Daily Change: +5.7% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
112

113. St. Louis (City)
3,090
169
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Louis (City) projection as of 2020-07-09
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,692 (35) -- Deaths: 158 (0) -- Case Mortality: 5.9% -- Daily Change: +2.2% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
113

114. St. Louis (County)
9,163
674
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Louis (County) projection as of 2020-07-09
0
200
400
0
10
20
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,482 (220) -- Deaths: 609 (1) -- Case Mortality: 8.1% -- Daily Change: +11.1% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
114

115. Baltimore (City)
9,347
415
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Baltimore (City) projection as of 2020-07-09
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 8,071 (71) -- Deaths: 355 (3) -- Case Mortality: 4.4% -- Daily Change: -2.6% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
115

116. Durham County
5,934
79
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Durham County projection as of 2020-07-09
0
25
50
75
100
125
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 4,208 (32) -- Deaths: 67 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.6% -- Daily Change: -3.2% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
116

117. Cuyahoga County (Cleveland)
11,915
454
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) projection as of 2020-07-09
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 8,277 (229) -- Deaths: 383 (4) -- Case Mortality: 4.6% -- Daily Change: +3.5% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
117

118. Wayne County (Detroit)
24,981
2,817
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Wayne County (Detroit) projection as of 2020-07-09
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 23,597 (162) -- Deaths: 2,743 (2) -- Case Mortality: 11.6% -- Daily Change: +9.5% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
118

119. Miami-Dade
93,050
1,413
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Miami-Dade projection as of 2020-07-09
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 53,974 (2,916) -- Deaths: 1,068 (11) -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: +4.6% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
119

120. Maricopa County
119,288
1,640
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Maricopa County projection as of 2020-07-09
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 70,128 (2,585) -- Deaths: 959 (26) -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: +0.3% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
120

121. Denver County
8,638
413
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Denver County projection as of 2020-07-09
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,563 (86) -- Deaths: 387 (4) -- Case Mortality: 5.1% -- Daily Change: +6.4% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
121

122. Arapahoe County
6,032
355
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Arapahoe County projection as of 2020-07-09
0
100
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,459 (38) -- Deaths: 347 (1) -- Case Mortality: 6.4% -- Daily Change: +4.3% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
122

123. Montrose County
226
12
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Montrose County projection as of 2020-07-09
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 213 (2) -- Deaths: 12 (0) -- Case Mortality: 5.6% -- Daily Change: +9.9% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
123

124. International
124

125. Italy
246,206
35,332
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Italy projection as of 2020-07-09
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0
250
500
750
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 242,149 (193) -- Deaths: 34,914 (15) -- Case Mortality: 14.4% -- Daily Change: -0.5% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
125

126. Spain
258,873
28,752
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Spain projection as of 2020-07-09
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0
250
500
750
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 252,513 (383) -- Deaths: 28,752 (0) -- Case Mortality: 11.4% -- Daily Change: +8.5% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
126

127. Portugal
52,135
1,766
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Portugal projection as of 2020-07-09
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 44,859 (443) -- Deaths: 1,631 (2) -- Case Mortality: 3.6% -- Daily Change: +0.7% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
127

128. France
216,327
30,376
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
France projection as of 2020-07-09
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
0
250
500
750
1,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 206,072 (0) -- Deaths: 29,936 (0) -- Case Mortality: 14.5% -- Daily Change: -4.7% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
128

129. Germany
207,542
9,255
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Germany projection as of 2020-07-09
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
0
100
200
300
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 198,699 (356) -- Deaths: 9,046 (14) -- Case Mortality: 4.6% -- Daily Change: -1.7% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
129

130. Switzerland
33,661
1,982
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Switzerland projection as of 2020-07-09
0
500
1,000
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 32,498 (129) -- Deaths: 1,966 (0) -- Case Mortality: 6.0% -- Daily Change: -0.9% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
130

131. Austria
19,652
736
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Austria projection as of 2020-07-09
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 18,513 (92) -- Deaths: 706 (0) -- Case Mortality: 3.8% -- Daily Change: -0.3% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
131

132. Sweden
97,814
6,045
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Sweden projection as of 2020-07-09
0
1,000
2,000
0
50
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 73,858 (514) -- Deaths: 5,482 (35) -- Case Mortality: 7.4% -- Daily Change: -5.2% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
132

133. Netherlands
52,287
6,209
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Netherlands projection as of 2020-07-09
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 50,959 (52) -- Deaths: 6,154 (3) -- Case Mortality: 12.1% -- Daily Change: +3.5% Cases, +0.2% Deaths
133

134. United Kingdom
299,213
47,402
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
United Kingdom projection as of 2020-07-09
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
0
250
500
750
1,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 288,511 (637) -- Deaths: 44,602 (126) -- Case Mortality: 15.5% -- Daily Change: +6.7% Cases, -0.7% Deaths
134

135. Iceland
1,927
10
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Iceland projection as of 2020-07-09
0
20
40
60
80
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,880 (7) -- Deaths: 10 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.5% -- Daily Change: +9.1% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
135

136. Canada
114,659
9,280
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Canada projection as of 2020-07-09
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 108,334 (311) -- Deaths: 8,786 (21) -- Case Mortality: 8.1% -- Daily Change: -0.9% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
136

137. Australia
10,446
109
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Australia projection as of 2020-07-09
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 9,056 (170) -- Deaths: 106 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.2% -- Daily Change: +6.4% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
137

138. New Zealand
1,569
22
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Zealand projection as of 2020-07-09
0
20
40
60
80
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,540 (3) -- Deaths: 22 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: +9.9% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
138

139. China
85,352
4,645
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
China projection as of 2020-07-09
0
2,000
4,000
0
100
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 84,950 (33) -- Deaths: 4,641 (0) -- Case Mortality: 5.5% -- Daily Change: +8.2% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
139

140. South Korea
14,235
291
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Korea projection as of 2020-07-09
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 13,293 (49) -- Deaths: 287 (2) -- Case Mortality: 2.2% -- Daily Change: -0.5% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
140

141. Singapore
49,362
26
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Singapore projection as of 2020-07-09
0
300
600
900
0
20
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 45,298 (158) -- Deaths: 26 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.1% -- Daily Change: -4.2% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
141

142. Japan
22,696
1,027
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Japan projection as of 2020-07-09
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 20,261 (206) -- Deaths: 982 (1) -- Case Mortality: 4.8% -- Daily Change: +2.1% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
142

143. South Africa
511,593
8,021
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Africa projection as of 2020-07-09
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
0
200
400
600
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 224,665 (8,810) -- Deaths: 3,602 (100) -- Case Mortality: 1.6% -- Daily Change: +2.2% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
143

144. Israel
47,657
389
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Israel projection as of 2020-07-09
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
80
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 33,557 (1,335) -- Deaths: 344 (2) -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: +6.6% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
144

145. Turkey
236,394
5,776
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Turkey projection as of 2020-07-09
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 208,938 (1,041) -- Deaths: 5,282 (22) -- Case Mortality: 2.5% -- Daily Change: -2.6% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
145

146. Iran
306,627
16,314
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Iran projection as of 2020-07-09
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 248,379 (2,691) -- Deaths: 12,084 (153) -- Case Mortality: 4.9% -- Daily Change: +0.8% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
146

147. Egypt
117,851
7,429
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Egypt projection as of 2020-07-09
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
25
50
75
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 78,304 (1,025) -- Deaths: 3,564 (75) -- Case Mortality: 4.6% -- Daily Change: -5.2% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
147

148. Bahrain
40,603
221
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Bahrain projection as of 2020-07-09
0
200
400
600
800
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 30,931 (610) -- Deaths: 98 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.3% -- Daily Change: +0.6% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
148

149. Brazil
2,698,704
102,437
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Brazil projection as of 2020-07-09
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,713,160 (44,571) -- Deaths: 67,964 (1,223) -- Case Mortality: 4.0% -- Daily Change: +0.4% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
149

150. Russia
860,452
15,473
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Russia projection as of 2020-07-09
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
0
200
400
600
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 699,749 (6,534) -- Deaths: 10,650 (172) -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: -0.5% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
150

151. India
1,248,720
38,689
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
India projection as of 2020-07-09
0
10,000
20,000
0
500
1,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 767,296 (24,879) -- Deaths: 21,129 (487) -- Case Mortality: 2.8% -- Daily Change: +2.2% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
151

152. Pakistan
338,851
8,152
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Pakistan projection as of 2020-07-09
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
0
100
200
300
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 240,848 (3,359) -- Deaths: 4,983 (61) -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: -1.2% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
152

153. Mexico
418,956
59,201
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Mexico projection as of 2020-07-09
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
0
250
500
750
1,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 275,003 (6,995) -- Deaths: 32,796 (782) -- Case Mortality: 11.9% -- Daily Change: +1.7% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
153

154. Case Mortality vs. Testing
LUX
BHR
MLT
DNK
ISL
LTU
RUS
QAT
PRT
ISR
BLR
USA
AUS
MDV
KWT
GBR
IRL
ITA
BEL
NZL
KAZ
LVA
EST
CAN
ESP
CHE
AUT
SGP
DEU
SRBCHL
NOR
SAU
CZE
SVN
SWE
FIN
TUR
POL
ROU
SVK
NLD
GRC
PAN
ZAF
HUN
SLV
KOR
MYS
BGR
IRN
MAR
HRV
URY
COLCUB
UKR
RWA
PRYGHA
ARGTHA
PER
CRI
BOL
IND
ECU
PHL
BRA
PAK
TUN
FJI
BGD
SEN
NPL
MEX
UGA
TGO
JPN
KEN
TWN
VNM
ZWE
ETH
IDN
MMR
NGA
0
5
10
15
0 10 20 30
% Tested
%CaseMortality
Case Mortality vs. Testing as of 2020-07-09
154