This document contains 24 charts showing COVID-19 case count and death projections for various US counties. The charts track metrics like new daily cases, total cases as a percentage of population, case mortality rates, and compare actual data to modeled projections over time. County-level data is presented for major hotspots like New York City, Los Angeles, and regions in California, Washington and New Jersey.

1. US Counties
US Counties: 1

2. Change in New Cases per Day
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
NA
Trends by county as of 2020-08-03
NA = Inadequate data
2020-08-03 US Counties: 2

3. Percent Change by Partisan Lean
-10
-5
0
5
10
0 25 50 75 100
Percent Republican
Percentchangeinnewcasesperday
25
50
75
Republican
Counties by 2016 presidential election results
Dark green line is a Friedman's supersmoother
2020-08-03 US Counties: 3

4. Percent Change by Population
-10
-5
0
5
10
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
Population
Percentchangeinnewcasesperday
25
50
75
Republican
Counties by Population
Dark green line is a Friedman's 'super smoother'
2020-08-03 US Counties: 4

5. Partisan Lean vs Population and Direction
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
0 25 50 75 100
Percent Republican
Population
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
Partisan Lean vs Population and Direction
Dark green line is a Friedman's 'super smoother'
2020-08-03 US Counties: 5

6. Cases as a Percent of Population
0.001%
0.01%
0.1%
1%
10%
20%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Totalcases
Total Cases as a Percent of County Population
Slanted lines are counties with small integer numbers of cases, green line: Friedman's 'super smoother'
2020-08-03 US Counties: 6

7. Deaths as a Percent of Population
0.0001%
0.001%
0.01%
0.1%
1%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Totaldeaths
Total Deaths as a Percent of County Population
Slanted lines are counties with small integer numbers of cases, green line: Friedman's 'super smoother'
2020-08-03 US Counties: 7

8. Case Mortality vs. Population
0.1%
1%
10%
100%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Casemortality
Case Mortality vs. County Population
2020-08-03 US Counties: 8

9. New York City
233,398
23,888
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
New York City projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0
200
400
600
800
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 225,723 (263) -- Deaths: 23,541 (5) -- Case Mortality: 10.4% -- Daily Change: -2.0% Cases, -4.3% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 9

10. Westchester County, NY
36,787
1,463
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Westchester County, NY projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 35,998 (24) -- Deaths: 1,446 (1) -- Case Mortality: 4.0% -- Daily Change: -1.1% Cases, -5.9% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 10

11. Bergen County, NJ
21,265
2,076
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Bergen County, NJ projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
300
600
900
1,200
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 20,521 (27) -- Deaths: 2,046 (0) -- Case Mortality: 10.0% -- Daily Change: +1.9% Cases, -5.8% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 11

12. Hudson County, NJ
19,637
1,531
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Hudson County, NJ projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
300
600
900
1,200
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 19,511 (14) -- Deaths: 1,505 (0) -- Case Mortality: 7.7% -- Daily Change: +16.3% Cases, -3.0% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 12

13. King County (Seattle)
20,784
681
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
King County (Seattle) projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 15,501 (111) -- Deaths: 657 (2) -- Case Mortality: 4.2% -- Daily Change: -0.8% Cases, +9.2% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 13

14. Clark County, Washington
2,213
54
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Clark County, Washington projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
30
60
90
0.0
2.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,610 (97) -- Deaths: 42 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.6% -- Daily Change: +12.1% Cases, +16.6% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 14

15. Los Angeles
295,056
6,221
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Los Angeles projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 192,177 (1,320) -- Deaths: 4,693 (24) -- Case Mortality: 2.4% -- Daily Change: -2.4% Cases, +2.3% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 15

16. Bay Area
56,811
722
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Bay Area projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
1,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 35,529 (504) -- Deaths: 523 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: -0.1% Cases, +2.4% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 16

17. San Francisco
10,582
80
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Francisco projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,811 (88) -- Deaths: 61 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.9% -- Daily Change: +2.3% Cases, +3.9% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 17

18. Santa Clara and San Mateo
25,892
345
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Santa Clara and San Mateo projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
0
10
20
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 16,170 (305) -- Deaths: 310 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: +0.5% Cases, +6.7% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 18

19. Alameda County
17,346
268
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Alameda County projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 11,524 (40) -- Deaths: 189 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.6% -- Daily Change: -0.7% Cases, -3.5% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 19

20. San Luis Obispo, California
2,639
72
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Luis Obispo, California projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,783 (0) -- Deaths: 15 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.8% -- Daily Change: -4.8% Cases, +10.1% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 20

21. Fresno, California
26,539
245
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Fresno, California projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
1,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 15,083 (644) -- Deaths: 138 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.9% -- Daily Change: +0.3% Cases, +8.4% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 21

22. Santa Barbara County
10,006
85
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Santa Barbara County projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,167 (0) -- Deaths: 60 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: -5.2% Cases, +24.5% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 22

23. Merced County
8,784
341
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Merced County projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 4,285 (0) -- Deaths: 50 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.2% -- Daily Change: +0.2% Cases, +7.9% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 23

24. Yolo County
2,650
43
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Yolo County projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
20
40
60
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,544 (34) -- Deaths: 42 (1) -- Case Mortality: 2.7% -- Daily Change: -4.0% Cases, +22.9% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 24

25. San Diego County
46,578
870
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Diego County projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 29,883 (835) -- Deaths: 565 (4) -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: -2.1% Cases, -3.0% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 25

26. Riverside County
58,209
1,001
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Riverside County projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 37,011 (0) -- Deaths: 695 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: -5.7% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 26

27. Imperial County
11,373
401
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Imperial County projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
250
0.0
5.0
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 9,409 (0) -- Deaths: 220 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.3% -- Daily Change: -6.8% Cases, +7.4% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 27

28. Multnomah County (Portland)
5,758
134
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Multnomah County (Portland) projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
40
80
120
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 4,450 (47) -- Deaths: 92 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: -1.5% Cases, +6.1% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 28

29. Utah County
12,247
42
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Utah County projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,949 (141) -- Deaths: 35 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.4% -- Daily Change: -1.3% Cases, +13.7% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 29

30. Summit County, Utah
847
1
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Summit County, Utah projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 695 (6) -- Deaths: 1 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.1% -- Daily Change: -4.7% Cases, NaN% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 30

31. De Soto Parish, Louisiana
994
32
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
De Soto Parish, Louisiana projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.00
0.30
0.60
0.90
1.20
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 655 (22) -- Deaths: 24 (0) -- Case Mortality: 3.7% -- Daily Change: +1.1% Cases, -13.7% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 31

32. St. Francois County, Missouri
569
2
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Francois County, Missouri projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 299 (2) -- Deaths: 2 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.7% -- Daily Change: +4.1% Cases, NaN% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 32

33. Dallas, Texas
79,791
1,262
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Dallas, Texas projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
30
60
90
120
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 51,108 (518) -- Deaths: 688 (7) -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: -3.3% Cases, +0.7% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 33

34. Collin Texas
9,343
117
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Collin Texas projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,353 (0) -- Deaths: 74 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.2% -- Daily Change: -4.1% Cases, -12.9% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 34

35. Harris County (Houston)
123,445
1,552
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Harris County (Houston) projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
30
60
90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 76,639 (1,758) -- Deaths: 761 (12) -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: +2.9% Cases, +2.6% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 35

36. Tulsa County, Oklahoma
16,082
147
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tulsa County, Oklahoma projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 9,051 (65) -- Deaths: 101 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.1% -- Daily Change: +1.0% Cases, +4.0% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 36

37. McLean County, Illinois
950
15
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
McLean County, Illinois projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 562 (10) -- Deaths: 15 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.7% -- Daily Change: +2.3% Cases, NaN% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 37

38. Cook County, Illinois
120,053
5,151
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Cook County, Illinois projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 106,713 (582) -- Deaths: 4,894 (6) -- Case Mortality: 4.6% -- Daily Change: +2.0% Cases, +0.3% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 38

39. Suffolk County (Boston)
22,388
1,118
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Suffolk County (Boston) projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 21,355 (76) -- Deaths: 1,058 (1) -- Case Mortality: 5.0% -- Daily Change: +5.9% Cases, -2.6% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 39

40. Polk County, Iowa
12,777
224
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Polk County, Iowa projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 9,709 (100) -- Deaths: 202 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: -1.2% Cases, +11.1% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 40

41. Johnson County, Iowa
2,522
32
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Johnson County, Iowa projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
10
20
30
40
50
0.0
1.0
2.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,918 (17) -- Deaths: 15 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.8% -- Daily Change: +1.3% Cases, +9.5% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 41

42. Erie County, New York
9,527
707
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Erie County, New York projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 8,572 (24) -- Deaths: 669 (0) -- Case Mortality: 7.8% -- Daily Change: +0.8% Cases, -4.4% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 42

43. Oakland County, Michigan
17,330
1,163
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Oakland County, Michigan projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
0
10
20
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 14,777 (56) -- Deaths: 1,127 (0) -- Case Mortality: 7.6% -- Daily Change: +1.6% Cases, -15.5% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 43

44. St. Louis (City)
7,410
185
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Louis (City) projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 4,621 (42) -- Deaths: 169 (0) -- Case Mortality: 3.7% -- Daily Change: +0.8% Cases, +2.2% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 44

45. St. Louis (County)
23,628
766
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Louis (County) projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 13,698 (127) -- Deaths: 669 (1) -- Case Mortality: 4.9% -- Daily Change: +1.4% Cases, -0.3% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 45

46. Baltimore (City)
16,018
495
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Baltimore (City) projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 11,577 (171) -- Deaths: 413 (4) -- Case Mortality: 3.6% -- Daily Change: +3.5% Cases, -2.8% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 46

47. Durham County
7,771
91
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Durham County projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
30
60
90
0.0
2.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,871 (41) -- Deaths: 77 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: -1.4% Cases, -8.1% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 47

48. Cuyahoga County (Cleveland)
17,912
637
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 12,646 (128) -- Deaths: 477 (2) -- Case Mortality: 3.8% -- Daily Change: -2.1% Cases, -2.6% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 48

49. Wayne County (Detroit)
31,174
2,863
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Wayne County (Detroit) projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 27,234 (51) -- Deaths: 2,803 (0) -- Case Mortality: 10.3% -- Daily Change: +0.5% Cases, +0.6% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 49

50. Miami-Dade
187,717
2,569
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Miami-Dade projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 122,690 (1,483) -- Deaths: 1,669 (22) -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: -1.9% Cases, +9.6% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 50

51. Maricopa County
180,937
5,209
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Maricopa County projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 120,279 (984) -- Deaths: 2,101 (12) -- Case Mortality: 1.7% -- Daily Change: -1.2% Cases, -0.3% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 51

52. Denver County
12,614
439
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Denver County projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 9,777 (84) -- Deaths: 413 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.2% -- Daily Change: -1.5% Cases, +3.3% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 52

53. Arapahoe County
8,923
387
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Arapahoe County projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
250
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,006 (74) -- Deaths: 363 (0) -- Case Mortality: 5.2% -- Daily Change: +0.8% Cases, -6.3% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 53

54. Montrose County
372
16
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Montrose County projection as of 2020-08-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 279 (1) -- Deaths: 13 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.7% -- Daily Change: +0.1% Cases, -18.1% Deaths
2020-08-03 US Counties: 54