This is my daily update for COVID-19 trends for July 22, 2020. Prior analyses and the R program code can be found at https://github.com/StevenLShafer/COVID19

1. Caveats and Comments
1
Overview:
This is my analysis, not Stanford’s. It is simply a set of regressions in R to understand the trajectory of COVID. It is not confidential and can be freely shared. The R
program code and all previous PowerPoint files are available at https://github.com/StevenLShafer/COVID19/. Please contact me at steven.shafer@Stanford.edu if
you would like to be added or removed from the recipient list. Suggestions are most welcome! You are welcome to use the R code on GitHub for any purpose. If
you create new graphs, please let me know, as I may want to add them to my analyses.
I am attempting to keep the analysis and commentary apolitical. I am now including partisan lean as a metric. This is just more data to understand the COVID
epidemic. I occasionally point out misrepresentations by government officials. Additionally, as the crisis has worsened, I will point out where government
recommendations have placed Americans at increasing risk.
I try to provide a daily update in the morning. However, as an anesthesiologist at Stanford, when I have clinical duties my analysis my be delayed.
There is a lot of information on the figures. If something isn’t clear, please see the explanation on slide 2.
Data sources:
• USA Case Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv
• USA Death Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv
• USA Testing and Hospitalization Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/COVID19Tracking/covid-tracking-data/master/data/states_daily_4pm_et.csv
• Global Case Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_global.csv
• Global Death Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv
• Global Testing Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/owid/covid-19-data/master/public/data/owid-covid-data.csv
• Mobility Data: https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/Global_Mobility_Report.csv
• Partisan Lean: MIT Election Data and Science Lab: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/VOQCHQ/HEIJCQ
• Ensemble Model: https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/raw/master/data-processed/COVIDhub-ensemble/2020-xx-xx-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv
Models:
1. Future projections of case numbers are based on the Gompertz function: log 𝑐𝑢𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 = 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 + 𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 − 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 1 −

2. 2,586,092
152,804
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
USA projection as of 2020-05-27
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,662,302 (32,123) -- Deaths: 98,220 (829) -- Case Mortality: 5.9% -- Daily Change in Cases: -0.5%
Explanation of the Figures
2
Brown dots:
cumulative tests
Red dots: cumulative cases
used to estimate Gompertz
function, presently set to last
3 weeks
Red line: predicted cumulative
cases based on the Gompertz
function estimated from the red
dots
Red number: total cases
on June 30th, based on
the Gompertz function
estimated from the red
dots
Black number: total
Deaths on July 31th,
based on log-linear
regression of the past
21 days
Black line: predicted
cumulative deaths, based
on a log linear regression
of deaths over past 21
days.
Axis for deaths / day, usually
1/10th of the axis for cases /
day on the left side of the
figure.
Green line: linear regression
over 8 days, used to calculate
percent increase / decrease
(see below)
Daily change in cases,
calculated as the slope of the
green line (above left) /
number of new cases
yesterday.
Case mortality:
cumulative deaths
/ cumulative cases.
Cases / day calculated
from cumulative cases
used to estimate the
Gompertz function
Cases / day calculated
from cumulative cases
not used to estimate the
Gompertz function
Deaths / day,
axis is on the left
Blue line: today
Blue dots: cumulative cases not
used to estimate Gompertz
function
Cumulative cases
(yesterday’s cases)
and cumulative deaths
(yesterday’s deaths)
Axis for cases / day.
Axis for deaths / day
appears to the right.
Geographic
location
Date of analysis,
also shown as
blue vertical line
below
Purple wedge: 98% ensemble
prediction interval from COVID-19
Forecast Hub (USA and US
States only)

3. US v. Asia and Europe
3

4. USA
4,579,643
149,588
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
USA projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,899,211 (64,534) -- Deaths: 141,995 (1,082) -- Case Mortality: 3.6% -- Daily Change: +0.8% Cases, +0.3% Deaths
4

5. Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam
47,435
1,357
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam projection as of 2020-07-22
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 43,998 (842) -- Deaths: 1,343 (1) -- Case Mortality: 3.1% -- Daily Change: +4.9% Cases, +0.4% Deaths
5

6. Western Europe
1,424,637
167,616
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Western Europe projection as of 2020-07-22
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,401,895 (3,485) -- Deaths: 166,236 (128) -- Case Mortality: 11.9% -- Daily Change: +4.3% Cases, -2.7% Deaths
6

7. US States
7

8. Change in New Cases per Day
New cases are:
Increasing > +3%
Increasing between +1% and +3%
No Change (-1% to +1%)
Decreasing between -1% and -3%
Decreasing > -3%
New cases by state as of 2020-07-22
8

9. Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
PercentofPeak
Daily Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
9

10. Change in New Deaths per Day
New deaths are:
Increasing > +0.5%
Increasing between +0.1% and +0.5%
No Change (-0.1% to +0.1%)
Decreasing between -0.1% and -0.5%
Decreasing > -0.5%
New deaths by state as of 2020-07-22
10

11. Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
PercentofPeak
Daily Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
11

12. Total cases per million
HI
VT
MT
ME
AK
WV
OR
WY
NH
KY
MO
WA
OH
OK
ND
CO
WI
KS
MI
NM
PA
MN
IN
ID
SD
VA
NC
CA
UT
AR
NE
TN
TX
NV
IA
IL
MD
CT
GA
DE
SC
AL
MS
DC
MA
RI
FL
NJ
AZ
LA
NY
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
0 10 20 30 40 50
State
Totalcasespermillionpopulation
Total cases to date
Total US COVID-19 Cases
12

13. Case rates per million
VT
ME
HI
NH
CT
NJ
NY
MA
RI
WV
PA
SD
WY
MI
OR
CO
AK
IL
DC
MT
MN
IN
OH
DE
WA
VA
NE
KY
MD
ND
NM
MO
KS
WI
IA
OK
NC
UT
AR
CA
TN
ID
GA
TX
NV
SC
MS
AL
AZ
LA
FL
0
200
400
0 10 20 30 40 50
State
Averagenewcasesperdaypermillionpopulation
Masks
aa
No
Yes
Average over past 7 days
US COVID-19 Case Rates
Statewide masks requirements as of 7/22/2020, p = 0.062
13

14. Total deaths per million
HI
AK
MT
WY
WV
OR
ID
UT
ME
VT
KS
OK
ND
AR
TN
SD
TX
WI
KY
NE
NC
MO
WA
CA
NV
SC
VA
FL
IA
AL
OH
NM
MN
NH
CO
GA
AZ
IN
MS
DE
PA
MD
IL
MI
LA
DC
RI
MA
CT
NY
NJ
0
500
1000
1500
0 10 20 30 40 50
State
Totaldeathspermillionpopulation
Total deaths to date
Total US COVID-19 Deaths
14

15. Deaths rates per million
VT
AK
HI
WV
ME
WA
MI
KS
CO
NY
WI
NH
WY
MO
MT
OR
MN
DE
ND
OK
VA
IL
CT
KY
SD
UT
PA
RI
IN
MD
NE
OH
ID
IA
NC
AR
DC
MA
TN
NM
NJ
CA
GA
LA
NV
TX
AL
FL
MS
SC
AZ
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
0 10 20 30 40 50
State
Averagedeathsperdaypermillionpopulation
Masks
aa
No
Yes
Averaged over past 7 days
US COVID-19 Death Rates
Statewide masks requirements as of 7/22/2020, p = 0.87
15

16. Percent tested by state
HI
WY
CO
OR
PA
ID
KS
MO
IN
OH
TX
ME
NH
WA
VA
AZ
SD
KY
SC
GA
AL
NE
OK
MD
NV
MT
MS
IA
WV
VT
WI
NC
FL
AR
UT
MI
MA
MN
DE
CA
RI
ND
TN
IL
CT
NJ
DC
NM
LA
AK
NY
0
10
20
0 10 20 30 40 50
State
PercentTested
Percent Tested
16

17. Positive fraction trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Fractionpositivefrommintomax
Positive fraction trends from min to max
17

18. Hospitalizations trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Hospitalizationsfrommintomax
Hospitalizations trends from min to max
18

19. Case Mortality vs. Testing
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
DC
FL
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MTNE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OKOR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WVWI
WY
2.5
5.0
7.5
10 15 20 25
% Tested
%Mortality
Mortality vs. Testing as of 2020-07-22
19

20. Mortality Trends
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
CaseRateMortality
Mortality Type:
13 day rolling median
Cumulative
Daily Raw
Daily vs. Cumulative Case Rate Mortality
Last week excluded because deaths are often backdated
20

21. Alabama
88,799
1,548
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Alabama projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
30
60
90
120
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 70,358 (1,467) -- Deaths: 1,303 (12) -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: +2.1% Cases, +0.2% Deaths
21

22. Alaska
2,687
20
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Alaska projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
25
50
75
100
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,042 (92) -- Deaths: 18 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.9% -- Daily Change: +4.8% Cases, -0.3% Deaths
22

23. Arizona
171,516
3,763
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Arizona projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
0
100
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 148,683 (3,500) -- Deaths: 2,918 (134) -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: -2.4% Cases, +4.1% Deaths
23

24. Arkansas
42,235
430
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Arkansas projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
300
600
900
0
20
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 34,655 (728) -- Deaths: 374 (11) -- Case Mortality: 1.1% -- Daily Change: +0.8% Cases, +2.9% Deaths
24

25. California
508,039
9,034
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
California projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
5,000
10,000
0
200
400
600
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 409,305 (11,435) -- Deaths: 7,888 (118) -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: +0.8% Cases, -0.8% Deaths
25

26. Colorado
44,903
1,798
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Colorado projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 41,041 (493) -- Deaths: 1,763 (5) -- Case Mortality: 4.3% -- Daily Change: +1.0% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
26

27. Connecticut
48,786
4,449
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Connecticut projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
30
60
90
120
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 48,096 (41) -- Deaths: 4,406 (0) -- Case Mortality: 9.2% -- Daily Change: -1.1% Cases, +2.4% Deaths
27

28. Delaware
14,707
532
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Delaware projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 13,746 (122) -- Deaths: 525 (2) -- Case Mortality: 3.8% -- Daily Change: +0.7% Cases, +1.4% Deaths
28

29. District of Columbia
11,825
595
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
District of Columbia projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
250
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 11,427 (88) -- Deaths: 580 (1) -- Case Mortality: 5.1% -- Daily Change: +3.9% Cases, -0.5% Deaths
29

30. Florida
490,212
6,229
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Florida projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0
200
400
600
800
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 369,834 (9,440) -- Deaths: 5,206 (134) -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: +0.7% Cases, +3.9% Deaths
30

31. Georgia
186,003
3,445
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Georgia projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 148,988 (3,406) -- Deaths: 3,254 (77) -- Case Mortality: 2.2% -- Daily Change: +0.5% Cases, +3.7% Deaths
31

32. Hawaii
1,733
28
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Hawaii projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
20
40
60
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,418 (25) -- Deaths: 24 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.7% -- Daily Change: -2.9% Cases, +5.0% Deaths
32

33. Idaho
22,287
144
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Idaho projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
600
800
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 15,823 (555) -- Deaths: 126 (4) -- Case Mortality: 0.8% -- Daily Change: +1.5% Cases, +6.2% Deaths
33

34. Illinois
174,541
7,925
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Illinois projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
0
100
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 164,864 (942) -- Deaths: 7,517 (23) -- Case Mortality: 4.6% -- Daily Change: -0.1% Cases, -11.3% Deaths
34

35. Indiana
63,136
2,940
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Indiana projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 57,916 (710) -- Deaths: 2,846 (21) -- Case Mortality: 4.9% -- Daily Change: +3.5% Cases, +0.7% Deaths
35

36. Iowa
45,393
852
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Iowa projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
1,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 39,721 (378) -- Deaths: 806 (8) -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: -0.9% Cases, +2.8% Deaths
36

37. Kansas
27,670
334
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Kansas projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 22,929 (273) -- Deaths: 316 (4) -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: -0.1% Cases, +2.4% Deaths
37

38. Kentucky
27,933
738
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Kentucky projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
1,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 24,060 (646) -- Deaths: 674 (3) -- Case Mortality: 2.8% -- Daily Change: +3.9% Cases, -0.4% Deaths
38

39. Louisiana
116,281
3,741
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Louisiana projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 96,583 (1,691) -- Deaths: 3,543 (0) -- Case Mortality: 3.7% -- Daily Change: +1.8% Cases, -2.6% Deaths
39

40. Maine
3,897
126
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Maine projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
20
40
60
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,723 (12) -- Deaths: 118 (1) -- Case Mortality: 3.2% -- Daily Change: +1.3% Cases, -0.8% Deaths
40

41. Maryland
84,046
3,501
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Maryland projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 79,545 (860) -- Deaths: 3,402 (20) -- Case Mortality: 4.3% -- Daily Change: +4.2% Cases, -0.5% Deaths
41

42. Massachusetts
115,994
8,651
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Massachusetts projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 114,033 (244) -- Deaths: 8,450 (17) -- Case Mortality: 7.4% -- Daily Change: +1.3% Cases, -3.0% Deaths
42

43. Michigan
88,452
6,493
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Michigan projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 83,059 (664) -- Deaths: 6,382 (9) -- Case Mortality: 7.7% -- Daily Change: +1.5% Cases, -4.6% Deaths
43

44. Minnesota
52,898
1,644
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Minnesota projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 47,457 (350) -- Deaths: 1,588 (3) -- Case Mortality: 3.3% -- Daily Change: +0.9% Cases, +0.4% Deaths
44

45. Mississippi
53,577
1,589
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Mississippi projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 45,524 (1,635) -- Deaths: 1,389 (31) -- Case Mortality: 3.1% -- Daily Change: +5.0% Cases, -0.8% Deaths
45

46. Missouri
41,525
1,213
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Missouri projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
300
600
900
1,200
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 35,194 (1,092) -- Deaths: 1,148 (10) -- Case Mortality: 3.3% -- Daily Change: +3.6% Cases, -1.2% Deaths
46

47. Montana
4,192
57
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Montana projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,711 (91) -- Deaths: 40 (1) -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: +1.5% Cases, +0.2% Deaths
47

48. Nebraska
24,912
321
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Nebraska projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 23,190 (343) -- Deaths: 313 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: +2.4% Cases, +13.5% Deaths
48

49. Nevada
48,693
765
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Nevada projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 37,528 (815) -- Deaths: 676 (28) -- Case Mortality: 1.8% -- Daily Change: +2.6% Cases, +1.8% Deaths
49

50. New Hampshire
6,456
415
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Hampshire projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,262 (13) -- Deaths: 400 (2) -- Case Mortality: 6.4% -- Daily Change: +1.2% Cases, -3.2% Deaths
50

51. New Jersey
179,847
16,183
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Jersey projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
0
100
200
300
400
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 177,256 (293) -- Deaths: 15,737 (22) -- Case Mortality: 8.9% -- Daily Change: -3.0% Cases, -7.7% Deaths
51

52. New Mexico
20,397
631
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Mexico projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 17,517 (302) -- Deaths: 588 (10) -- Case Mortality: 3.4% -- Daily Change: +0.7% Cases, +1.6% Deaths
52

53. New York
414,075
32,793
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New York projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
0
250
500
750
1,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 408,181 (855) -- Deaths: 32,520 (14) -- Case Mortality: 8.0% -- Daily Change: +0.4% Cases, -3.9% Deaths
53

54. North Carolina
124,283
1,866
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
North Carolina projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
0
50
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 103,216 (1,985) -- Deaths: 1,705 (28) -- Case Mortality: 1.7% -- Daily Change: +0.2% Cases, +3.2% Deaths
54

55. North Dakota
6,018
102
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
North Dakota projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,207 (81) -- Deaths: 94 (1) -- Case Mortality: 1.8% -- Daily Change: +2.7% Cases, +0.5% Deaths
55

56. Ohio
89,796
3,376
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Ohio projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 77,215 (1,047) -- Deaths: 3,219 (30) -- Case Mortality: 4.2% -- Daily Change: +0.0% Cases, +2.0% Deaths
56

57. Oklahoma
33,839
497
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Oklahoma projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
300
600
900
0
20
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 26,326 (890) -- Deaths: 461 (9) -- Case Mortality: 1.8% -- Daily Change: -0.7% Cases, +3.1% Deaths
57

58. Oregon
18,593
304
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Oregon projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 15,139 (292) -- Deaths: 269 (7) -- Case Mortality: 1.8% -- Daily Change: +1.4% Cases, +2.3% Deaths
58

59. Pennsylvania
114,318
7,261
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Pennsylvania projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 107,460 (1,055) -- Deaths: 7,051 (26) -- Case Mortality: 6.6% -- Daily Change: +1.6% Cases, -2.9% Deaths
59

60. Rhode Island
18,451
1,019
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Rhode Island projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 17,986 (82) -- Deaths: 996 (1) -- Case Mortality: 5.5% -- Daily Change: +1.7% Cases, -4.0% Deaths
60

61. South Carolina
93,695
1,503
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Carolina projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0
40
80
120
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 73,337 (1,892) -- Deaths: 1,221 (57) -- Case Mortality: 1.7% -- Daily Change: +0.9% Cases, +4.6% Deaths
61

62. South Dakota
8,578
137
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Dakota projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 8,019 (76) -- Deaths: 118 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: -0.8% Cases, -4.3% Deaths
62

63. Tennessee
101,844
1,050
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Tennessee projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 81,944 (2,190) -- Deaths: 871 (24) -- Case Mortality: 1.1% -- Daily Change: +1.8% Cases, +0.7% Deaths
63

64. Texas
464,702
5,501
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Texas projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0
200
400
600
800
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 351,071 (7,288) -- Deaths: 4,199 (93) -- Case Mortality: 1.2% -- Daily Change: -0.2% Cases, +3.1% Deaths
64

65. Utah
42,252
310
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Utah projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
1,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 35,012 (486) -- Deaths: 251 (4) -- Case Mortality: 0.7% -- Daily Change: -0.8% Cases, -1.0% Deaths
65

66. Vermont
1,430
56
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Vermont projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
10
20
30
40
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,366 (6) -- Deaths: 56 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.1% -- Daily Change: +2.0% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
66

67. Virginia
86,698
2,207
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Virginia projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 79,371 (996) -- Deaths: 2,048 (17) -- Case Mortality: 2.6% -- Daily Change: +2.9% Cases, -5.2% Deaths
67

68. Washington
56,498
1,542
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Washington projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 48,575 (832) -- Deaths: 1,465 (12) -- Case Mortality: 3.0% -- Daily Change: +2.9% Cases, -7.7% Deaths
68

69. West Virginia
6,337
105
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
West Virginia projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,172 (88) -- Deaths: 101 (1) -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: -2.8% Cases, +4.1% Deaths
69

70. Wisconsin
52,157
885
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Wisconsin projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
300
600
900
1,200
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 44,135 (1,117) -- Deaths: 859 (13) -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: +2.6% Cases, +4.7% Deaths
70

71. Wyoming
2,610
28
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Wyoming projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
20
40
60
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,238 (51) -- Deaths: 25 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.1% -- Daily Change: +3.0% Cases, +6.7% Deaths
71

72. US Counties
72

73. Change in New Cases per Day
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
NA
Trends by county as of 2020-07-22
NA = Inadequate data
73

74. Percent Change by Partisan Lean
-10
-5
0
5
10
0 25 50 75 100
Percent Republican
Percentchangeinnewcasesperday
25
50
75
Republican
Counties by 2016 presidential election results
Dark green line is a Friedman's supersmoother
74

75. Percent Change by Population
-10
-5
0
5
10
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
Population
Percentchangeinnewcasesperday
25
50
75
Republican
Counties by Population
Dark green line is a Friedman's 'super smoother'
75

76. Partisan Lean vs Population and Direction
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
0 25 50 75 100
Percent Republican
Population
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
Partisan Lean vs Population and Direction
Dark green line is a Friedman's 'super smoother'
76

77. Cases as a Percent of Population
0.001%
0.01%
0.1%
1%
10%
20%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Totalcases
Total Cases as a Percent of County Population
Slanted lines are counties with small integer numbers of cases, green line: Friedman's 'super smoother'
77

78. Deaths as a Percent of Population
0.0001%
0.001%
0.01%
0.1%
1%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Totaldeaths
Total Deaths as a Percent of County Population
Slanted lines are counties with small integer numbers of cases, green line: Friedman's 'super smoother'
78

79. Case Mortality vs. Population
0.1%
1%
10%
100%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Casemortality
Case Mortality vs. County Population
79

80. New York City
224,703
23,604
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
New York City projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0
200
400
600
800
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 222,094 (391) -- Deaths: 23,424 (13) -- Case Mortality: 10.5% -- Daily Change: +1.4% Cases, -2.3% Deaths
80

81. Westchester County, NY
35,897
1,449
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Westchester County, NY projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 35,587 (36) -- Deaths: 1,440 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.0% -- Daily Change: -1.3% Cases, -3.5% Deaths
81

82. Bergen County, NJ
20,350
2,065
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Bergen County, NJ projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
300
600
900
1,200
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 20,052 (18) -- Deaths: 2,034 (0) -- Case Mortality: 10.1% -- Daily Change: -4.7% Cases, -14.6% Deaths
82

83. Hudson County, NJ
19,333
1,533
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Hudson County, NJ projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
300
600
900
1,200
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 19,333 (0) -- Deaths: 1,500 (2) -- Case Mortality: 7.8% -- Daily Change: +0.0% Cases, -8.1% Deaths
83

84. King County (Seattle)
14,931
656
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
King County (Seattle) projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 13,450 (131) -- Deaths: 638 (1) -- Case Mortality: 4.7% -- Daily Change: +2.4% Cases, -16.6% Deaths
84

85. Clark County, Washington
1,287
36
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Clark County, Washington projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,260 (59) -- Deaths: 33 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.6% -- Daily Change: +2.3% Cases, -14.1% Deaths
85

86. Los Angeles
195,089
4,661
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Los Angeles projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
0
100
200
300
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 162,025 (2,980) -- Deaths: 4,155 (51) -- Case Mortality: 2.6% -- Daily Change: +0.8% Cases, -1.8% Deaths
86

87. Bay Area
34,713
504
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Bay Area projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 28,240 (653) -- Deaths: 454 (6) -- Case Mortality: 1.6% -- Daily Change: +1.4% Cases, +0.4% Deaths
87

88. San Francisco
6,364
53
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Francisco projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,363 (58) -- Deaths: 53 (1) -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: +0.2% Cases, +18.8% Deaths
88

89. Santa Clara and San Mateo
15,196
317
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Santa Clara and San Mateo projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 12,720 (374) -- Deaths: 294 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.3% -- Daily Change: +3.8% Cases, -5.7% Deaths
89

90. Alameda County
11,380
181
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Alameda County projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 9,383 (127) -- Deaths: 166 (4) -- Case Mortality: 1.8% -- Daily Change: -1.8% Cases, +4.3% Deaths
90

91. San Luis Obispo, California
1,823
16
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Luis Obispo, California projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
30
60
90
0.0
2.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,369 (63) -- Deaths: 7 (1) -- Case Mortality: 0.5% -- Daily Change: +4.4% Cases, -0.9% Deaths
91

92. Fresno, California
13,845
121
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Fresno, California projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 10,970 (331) -- Deaths: 104 (4) -- Case Mortality: 0.9% -- Daily Change: +1.7% Cases, +2.8% Deaths
92

93. Santa Barbara County
6,255
35
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Santa Barbara County projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
400
500
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,124 (133) -- Deaths: 32 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.6% -- Daily Change: +2.9% Cases, -9.1% Deaths
93

94. Merced County
3,727
24
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Merced County projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,813 (119) -- Deaths: 22 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.8% -- Daily Change: +3.7% Cases, +15.5% Deaths
94

95. Yolo County
1,625
40
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Yolo County projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
20
40
60
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,200 (4) -- Deaths: 40 (0) -- Case Mortality: 3.3% -- Daily Change: -1.9% Cases, +39.6% Deaths
95

96. San Diego County
30,054
561
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Diego County projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 24,520 (385) -- Deaths: 487 (9) -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: +1.6% Cases, +1.7% Deaths
96

97. Riverside County
36,754
700
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Riverside County projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 30,890 (907) -- Deaths: 589 (1) -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: -0.5% Cases, -7.4% Deaths
97

98. Imperial County
9,274
220
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Imperial County projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 8,606 (0) -- Deaths: 163 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: -6.1% Cases, -0.8% Deaths
98

99. Multnomah County (Portland)
4,337
79
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Multnomah County (Portland) projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
25
50
75
100
125
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,631 (65) -- Deaths: 76 (1) -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: +3.2% Cases, +2.5% Deaths
99

100. Utah County
7,799
40
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Utah County projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,516 (136) -- Deaths: 31 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.5% -- Daily Change: +1.1% Cases, -8.3% Deaths
100

101. Summit County, Utah
727
1
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Summit County, Utah projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 643 (6) -- Deaths: 1 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.2% -- Daily Change: -1.9% Cases, -37.5% Deaths
101

102. De Soto Parish, Louisiana
583
24
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
De Soto Parish, Louisiana projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 519 (17) -- Deaths: 23 (1) -- Case Mortality: 4.4% -- Daily Change: +3.6% Cases, +6.5% Deaths
102

103. St. Francois County, Missouri
220
2
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Francois County, Missouri projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 207 (16) -- Deaths: 2 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: +11.9% Cases, NaN% Deaths
103

104. Dallas, Texas
51,829
648
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Dallas, Texas projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
30
60
90
120
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 43,026 (734) -- Deaths: 537 (11) -- Case Mortality: 1.2% -- Daily Change: -1.6% Cases, +0.9% Deaths
104

105. Collin Texas
7,094
86
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Collin Texas projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,456 (82) -- Deaths: 65 (1) -- Case Mortality: 1.2% -- Daily Change: -3.2% Cases, -5.1% Deaths
105

106. Harris County (Houston)
74,326
680
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Harris County (Houston) projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
25
50
75
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 58,457 (1,386) -- Deaths: 561 (16) -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: +0.7% Cases, +2.8% Deaths
106

107. Tulsa County, Oklahoma
8,344
95
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tulsa County, Oklahoma projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,536 (220) -- Deaths: 86 (1) -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: -1.3% Cases, +5.4% Deaths
107

108. McLean County, Illinois
479
17
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
McLean County, Illinois projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 408 (4) -- Deaths: 15 (0) -- Case Mortality: 3.7% -- Daily Change: +3.9% Cases, -22.8% Deaths
108

109. Cook County, Illinois
103,274
4,912
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Cook County, Illinois projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 99,464 (412) -- Deaths: 4,788 (11) -- Case Mortality: 4.8% -- Daily Change: -0.2% Cases, -5.1% Deaths
109

110. Suffolk County (Boston)
21,021
1,053
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Suffolk County (Boston) projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 20,650 (29) -- Deaths: 1,039 (4) -- Case Mortality: 5.0% -- Daily Change: -2.7% Cases, +4.3% Deaths
110

111. Polk County, Iowa
9,993
197
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Polk County, Iowa projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 8,557 (92) -- Deaths: 189 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.2% -- Daily Change: -1.4% Cases, -5.5% Deaths
111

112. Johnson County, Iowa
1,944
10
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Johnson County, Iowa projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
20
40
0.0
1.0
2.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,651 (15) -- Deaths: 10 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.6% -- Daily Change: -3.5% Cases, +24.6% Deaths
112

113. Erie County, New York
8,462
669
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Erie County, New York projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 8,106 (60) -- Deaths: 657 (0) -- Case Mortality: 8.1% -- Daily Change: -0.6% Cases, +4.5% Deaths
113

114. Oakland County, Michigan
14,183
1,136
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Oakland County, Michigan projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
0
10
20
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 13,492 (50) -- Deaths: 1,119 (2) -- Case Mortality: 8.3% -- Daily Change: +0.3% Cases, -4.5% Deaths
114

115. St. Louis (City)
4,040
164
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Louis (City) projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
40
80
120
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,518 (71) -- Deaths: 161 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.6% -- Daily Change: +2.2% Cases, -0.6% Deaths
115

116. St. Louis (County)
11,159
648
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Louis (County) projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 9,655 (257) -- Deaths: 626 (0) -- Case Mortality: 6.5% -- Daily Change: +2.4% Cases, -6.7% Deaths
116

117. Baltimore (City)
10,523
414
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Baltimore (City) projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 9,644 (139) -- Deaths: 389 (5) -- Case Mortality: 4.0% -- Daily Change: +3.9% Cases, +1.5% Deaths
117

118. Durham County
5,943
79
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Durham County projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
30
60
90
120
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,169 (59) -- Deaths: 73 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: +0.2% Cases, +1.4% Deaths
118

119. Cuyahoga County (Cleveland)
13,315
460
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 10,828 (115) -- Deaths: 431 (7) -- Case Mortality: 4.0% -- Daily Change: -2.8% Cases, +3.6% Deaths
119

120. Wayne County (Detroit)
26,508
2,819
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Wayne County (Detroit) projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 25,410 (183) -- Deaths: 2,782 (1) -- Case Mortality: 10.9% -- Daily Change: +1.9% Cases, -3.4% Deaths
120

121. Miami-Dade
116,471
1,529
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Miami-Dade projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 89,557 (2,522) -- Deaths: 1,325 (16) -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: +1.3% Cases, +2.8% Deaths
121

122. Maricopa County
129,299
2,169
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Maricopa County projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 98,988 (2,277) -- Deaths: 1,556 (71) -- Case Mortality: 1.6% -- Daily Change: -2.8% Cases, +3.6% Deaths
122

123. Denver County
9,198
413
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Denver County projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 8,532 (103) -- Deaths: 399 (1) -- Case Mortality: 4.7% -- Daily Change: -0.3% Cases, -10.8% Deaths
123

124. Arapahoe County
6,528
358
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Arapahoe County projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
250
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,140 (65) -- Deaths: 352 (0) -- Case Mortality: 5.7% -- Daily Change: +2.0% Cases, -10.8% Deaths
124

125. Montrose County
248
12
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Montrose County projection as of 2020-07-22
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 236 (1) -- Deaths: 12 (0) -- Case Mortality: 5.1% -- Daily Change: +2.4% Cases, NaN% Deaths
125

126. International
126

127. Italy
246,472
35,216
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Italy projection as of 2020-07-22
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0
200
400
600
800
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 244,752 (128) -- Deaths: 35,073 (15) -- Case Mortality: 14.3% -- Daily Change: -1.0% Cases, -0.9% Deaths
127

128. Spain
269,257
28,752
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Spain projection as of 2020-07-22
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0
250
500
750
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 266,194 (1,358) -- Deaths: 28,752 (0) -- Case Mortality: 10.8% -- Daily Change: +11.5% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
128

129. Portugal
52,578
1,767
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Portugal projection as of 2020-07-22
0
200
400
600
800
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 48,898 (127) -- Deaths: 1,697 (6) -- Case Mortality: 3.5% -- Daily Change: -5.4% Cases, -4.4% Deaths
129

130. France
218,753
30,372
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
France projection as of 2020-07-22
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
0
250
500
750
1,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 214,607 (584) -- Deaths: 30,180 (0) -- Case Mortality: 14.1% -- Daily Change: +3.9% Cases, -1.7% Deaths
130

131. Germany
206,639
9,162
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Germany projection as of 2020-07-22
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
0
100
200
300
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 203,717 (392) -- Deaths: 9,099 (5) -- Case Mortality: 4.5% -- Daily Change: +2.5% Cases, -8.0% Deaths
131

132. Switzerland
34,548
1,974
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Switzerland projection as of 2020-07-22
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 33,742 (108) -- Deaths: 1,972 (1) -- Case Mortality: 5.8% -- Daily Change: +0.3% Cases, +5.5% Deaths
132

133. Austria
20,681
715
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Austria projection as of 2020-07-22
0
200
400
600
800
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 19,827 (84) -- Deaths: 711 (0) -- Case Mortality: 3.6% -- Daily Change: +0.6% Cases, -1.1% Deaths
133

134. Sweden
82,533
5,798
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Sweden projection as of 2020-07-22
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
30
60
90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 78,166 (118) -- Deaths: 5,646 (7) -- Case Mortality: 7.2% -- Daily Change: -4.4% Cases, -2.2% Deaths
134

135. Netherlands
52,718
6,172
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Netherlands projection as of 2020-07-22
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 52,307 (165) -- Deaths: 6,157 (0) -- Case Mortality: 11.8% -- Daily Change: +9.3% Cases, -20.2% Deaths
135

136. United Kingdom
302,841
46,356
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
United Kingdom projection as of 2020-07-22
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
0
250
500
750
1,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 297,389 (445) -- Deaths: 45,507 (110) -- Case Mortality: 15.3% -- Daily Change: -0.0% Cases, -2.5% Deaths
136

137. Iceland
1,973
10
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Iceland projection as of 2020-07-22
0
20
40
60
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,930 (0) -- Deaths: 10 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.5% -- Daily Change: -3.9% Cases, NaN% Deaths
137

138. Canada
115,886
9,041
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Canada projection as of 2020-07-22
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 113,473 (535) -- Deaths: 8,908 (6) -- Case Mortality: 7.9% -- Daily Change: +5.3% Cases, -4.0% Deaths
138

139. Australia
15,228
136
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Australia projection as of 2020-07-22
0
100
200
300
400
500
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 12,894 (466) -- Deaths: 128 (2) -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: +5.8% Cases, +12.0% Deaths
139

140. New Zealand
1,568
22
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Zealand projection as of 2020-07-22
0
20
40
60
80
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,555 (0) -- Deaths: 22 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: -4.2% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
140

141. China
85,640
4,646
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
China projection as of 2020-07-22
0
2,000
4,000
0
100
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 85,314 (0) -- Deaths: 4,644 (0) -- Case Mortality: 5.4% -- Daily Change: -8.4% Cases, +4.7% Deaths
141

142. Taiwan
453
7
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Taiwan projection as of 2020-07-22
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 451 (0) -- Deaths: 7 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.6% -- Daily Change: -16.5% Cases, NaN% Deaths
142

143. South Korea
14,309
305
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Korea projection as of 2020-07-22
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 13,879 (63) -- Deaths: 297 (1) -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: -0.1% Cases, +2.3% Deaths
143

144. Singapore
50,086
28
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Singapore projection as of 2020-07-22
0
250
500
750
1,000
0
20
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 48,434 (399) -- Deaths: 27 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.1% -- Daily Change: +3.7% Cases, +1.4% Deaths
144

145. Japan
29,724
994
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Japan projection as of 2020-07-22
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 26,463 (757) -- Deaths: 988 (0) -- Case Mortality: 3.7% -- Daily Change: +5.4% Cases, -2.3% Deaths
145

146. South Africa
516,062
7,632
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Africa projection as of 2020-07-22
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0
200
400
600
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 381,798 (8,170) -- Deaths: 5,368 (195) -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: -0.5% Cases, +1.8% Deaths
146

147. Israel
70,365
476
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Israel projection as of 2020-07-22
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
30
60
90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 54,042 (2,039) -- Deaths: 425 (10) -- Case Mortality: 0.8% -- Daily Change: +2.6% Cases, +6.1% Deaths
147

148. Turkey
231,054
5,736
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Turkey projection as of 2020-07-22
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 221,500 (928) -- Deaths: 5,526 (18) -- Case Mortality: 2.5% -- Daily Change: -1.1% Cases, -1.0% Deaths
148

149. Iran
302,615
16,903
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Iran projection as of 2020-07-22
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 278,827 (2,625) -- Deaths: 14,634 (229) -- Case Mortality: 5.2% -- Daily Change: -0.0% Cases, +1.4% Deaths
149

150. Iraq
116,471
5,671
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Iraq projection as of 2020-07-22
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 97,159 (2,466) -- Deaths: 3,950 (81) -- Case Mortality: 4.1% -- Daily Change: -0.6% Cases, -0.4% Deaths
150

151. Egypt
100,036
5,427
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Egypt projection as of 2020-07-22
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 89,078 (676) -- Deaths: 4,399 (47) -- Case Mortality: 4.9% -- Daily Change: -3.5% Cases, -1.7% Deaths
151

152. Saudi Arabia
290,911
3,185
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Saudi Arabia projection as of 2020-07-22
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 255,825 (2,476) -- Deaths: 2,557 (34) -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: -2.5% Cases, -0.9% Deaths
152

153. Kuwait
67,824
447
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Kuwait projection as of 2020-07-22
0
250
500
750
1,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 60,434 (671) -- Deaths: 412 (4) -- Case Mortality: 0.7% -- Daily Change: -1.7% Cases, -2.3% Deaths
153

154. United Arab Emirates
62,254
356
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
United Arab Emirates projection as of 2020-07-22
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 57,498 (305) -- Deaths: 341 (1) -- Case Mortality: 0.6% -- Daily Change: -5.6% Cases, -3.4% Deaths
154

155. Oman
86,673
453
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Oman projection as of 2020-07-22
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
30
60
90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 69,887 (1,487) -- Deaths: 337 (11) -- Case Mortality: 0.5% -- Daily Change: +0.3% Cases, +3.7% Deaths
155

156. Qatar
96,966
194
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Qatar projection as of 2020-07-22
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
25
50
75
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 107,430 (393) -- Deaths: 160 (1) -- Case Mortality: 0.1% -- Daily Change: -3.1% Cases, -5.8% Deaths
156

157. Bahrain
41,839
155
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Bahrain projection as of 2020-07-22
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 37,316 (380) -- Deaths: 129 (1) -- Case Mortality: 0.3% -- Daily Change: -1.2% Cases, +2.5% Deaths
157

158. Brazil
2,589,732
95,095
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Brazil projection as of 2020-07-22
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,159,654 (41,008) -- Deaths: 81,487 (1,367) -- Case Mortality: 3.8% -- Daily Change: -1.8% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
158

159. Chile
362,240
10,428
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Chile projection as of 2020-07-22
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
0
300
600
900
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 334,683 (3,753) -- Deaths: 8,677 (174) -- Case Mortality: 2.6% -- Daily Change: -2.8% Cases, +6.8% Deaths
159

160. Colombia
279,901
10,392
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Colombia projection as of 2020-07-22
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
0
100
200
300
400
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 211,038 (7,033) -- Deaths: 7,166 (237) -- Case Mortality: 3.4% -- Daily Change: +3.7% Cases, +2.7% Deaths
160

161. Peru
395,425
15,933
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Peru projection as of 2020-07-22
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
0
100
200
300
400
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 362,087 (8,497) -- Deaths: 13,579 (392) -- Case Mortality: 3.8% -- Daily Change: +2.3% Cases, +1.0% Deaths
161

162. Mexico
425,097
48,605
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Mexico projection as of 2020-07-22
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
0
250
500
750
1,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 356,255 (6,859) -- Deaths: 40,400 (915) -- Case Mortality: 11.3% -- Daily Change: -0.1% Cases, -0.4% Deaths
162

163. Russia
846,414
14,675
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Russia projection as of 2020-07-22
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
0
200
400
600
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 782,040 (5,828) -- Deaths: 12,561 (153) -- Case Mortality: 1.6% -- Daily Change: -0.8% Cases, -1.7% Deaths
163

164. India
1,538,142
36,578
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
India projection as of 2020-07-22
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,193,078 (37,740) -- Deaths: 28,732 (650) -- Case Mortality: 2.4% -- Daily Change: +3.5% Cases, +2.4% Deaths
164

165. Pakistan
297,581
6,556
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Pakistan projection as of 2020-07-22
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
0
100
200
300
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 267,428 (1,332) -- Deaths: 5,677 (38) -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: -7.2% Cases, -4.3% Deaths
165

166. Worldwide cases
MMR
VNM
TWN
TZA
SYR
BFA
UGA
NER
MOZ
YEM
LKA
THA
MDG
COD
MYS
SDN
ETH
VEN
AUS
KOR
KEN
CIV
CMR
MAR
UZB
NPL
DZA
JPN
GHA
AFG
NGA
ROU
POL
NLD
UKR
PHL
KAZ
CHN
EGY
IDN
IRQ
CAN
ARG
DEU
BGD
COL
FRA
TUR
ITA
SAU
ESP
PAK
IRN
GBR
CHL
MEX
PER
ZAF
RUS
IND
BRA
USAUSA
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
0 20 40 60
Country
Totalcasesoverpast7days
Total to date
Worldwide cases
ZAF: South Africa, SAU: Saudi Arabia, PER: Peru, COL: Columbia
166

167. Worldwide cases
VNM
MMR
TZA
TWN
SYR
UGA
THA
CHN
BFA
YEM
MOZ
NER
COD
LKA
ETH
JPN
NGA
KOR
MYS
KEN
MDG
IDN
SDN
VEN
MAR
AUS
NPL
UZB
CIV
DZA
PHL
CMR
IND
POL
EGY
GHA
AFG
UKR
BGD
PAK
ROU
DEU
TUR
IRQ
NLD
MEX
ARG
CAN
FRA
IRN
ITA
COL
KAZ
GBR
RUS
ESP
ZAF
SAU
BRA
USA
PER
CHL
USA
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
0 20 40 60
Country
Totalcasespermillion
Total to date
Worldwide cases per million
ZAF: South Africa, SAU: Saudi Arabia, PER: Peru, COL: Columbia
167

168. Worldwide cases
TWN
TZA
MMR
CHN
VNM
THA
NER
UGA
BFA
MYS
LKA
YEM
SYR
COD
KOR
MOZ
SDN
ITA
NGA
JPN
NPL
ETH
AFG
DEU
MAR
IDN
NLD
POL
CMR
EGY
PAK
CIV
FRA
GBR
TUR
KEN
CAN
VEN
MDG
AUS
DZA
UKR
PHL
BGD
UZB
GHA
IND
ESP
ROU
IRN
RUS
MEX
IRQ
SAU
ARG
KAZ
CHL
PER
COL
BRA
USA
ZAF
USA
0
100
200
300
0 20 40 60
Country
Newcasesperdaypermillion
Daily average over past 7 days
Worldwide new cases per day
ZAF: South Africa, SAU: Saudi Arabia, PER: Peru, COL: Columbia
168

169. Worldwide deaths
UGA
VNM
MMR
TWN
LKA
MOZ
TZA
SYR
NPL
BFA
THA
MDG
NER
CIV
UZB
VEN
MYS
AUS
GHA
ETH
COD
KEN
MAR
KOR
CMR
YEM
KAZ
SDN
NGA
JPN
DZA
AFG
UKR
POL
PHL
ROU
ARG
SAU
BGD
IRQ
IDN
EGY
CHN
ZAF
TUR
PAK
NLD
COL
CHL
CAN
DEU
RUS
PER
IRN
ESP
IND
FRA
ITA
MEX
GBR
BRA
USAUSA
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
0 20 40 60
Country
Totaldeathsoverpast7days
Total to date
Worldwide deaths
ZAF: South Africa, SAU: Saudi Arabia, PER: Peru, COL: Columbia
169

170. Worldwide deaths
UGA
VNM
MMR
TWN
TZA
MOZ
LKA
THA
NPL
SYR
ETH
COD
MDG
BFA
UZB
CHN
VEN
NER
CIV
MYS
NGA
AUS
KOR
KEN
GHA
JPN
MAR
BGD
IDN
PHL
YEM
CMR
IND
SDN
DZA
PAK
UKR
KAZ
AFG
POL
EGY
ARG
TUR
SAU
RUS
ROU
ZAF
DEU
IRQ
COL
IRN
CAN
MEX
NLD
BRA
USA
PER
FRA
CHL
ITA
ESP
GBR
USA
0
200
400
600
800
0 20 40 60
Country
Totaldeathspermillion
Total to date
Worldwide deaths per million
ZAF: South Africa, SAU: Saudi Arabia, PER: Peru, COL: Columbia
170

171. Worldwide deaths
BFA
LKA
MMR
THA
TWN
TZA
UGA
VNM
CHN
JPN
MYS
NER
NPL
COD
MOZ
KOR
DEU
NGA
CIV
ESP
GHA
SYR
ETH
MAR
AUS
VEN
UZB
CMR
YEM
MDG
KEN
SDN
POL
ITA
TUR
PAK
BGD
CAN
FRA
DZA
PHL
UKR
IDN
IND
EGY
AFG
ROU
RUS
GBR
SAU
KAZ
ARG
USA
IRQ
IRN
ZAF
COL
BRA
MEX
PER
CHL
USA
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
0 20 40 60
Country
Deathsperdaypermillion
Daily average over past 7 days
Worldwide deaths per day
ZAF: South Africa, SAU: Saudi Arabia, PER: Peru, COL: Columbia
171

172. Case Mortality vs. Testing
LUX
ARE
BHR
MLT
DNK
ISL
LTU
RUS
QAT
ISR
USA
AUS
PRT
MDVBLR
GBR
IRL
KWT
ITA
LVA
BEL
KAZ
CAN
NZL
SGP
AUT
ESP
EST
CHE
DEU
SRB
SAU
CHL
NOR
CZE
SVN
FIN
POL
TUR
ROU
NLD
SVK
PAN
ZAF
GRC
SLV
HUN
BGR
KOR
MYSMAR
IRN
URY
HRV
COLCUB
UKR
RWA
PRY
ARG
GHACRI
NPL
BOL
INDPHL
PER
ECU
THA
PAK
BRA
FJI
BGD
TUN
SEN
MEX
JPN
TGOKENTWNZWE
VNM
IDN
ETHMMR
NGA
0
5
10
15
0 20 40
% Tested
%CaseMortality
Case Mortality vs. Testing as of 2020-07-22
172