COVID-19 Analysis for July 1, 2020

1. Caveats and Comments
1
Overview:
This is my analysis, not Stanford’s. It is simply a set of regressions in R to understand the trajectory of COVID. It is not confidential and can be freely shared. The R
program code and all previous PowerPoint files are available at https://github.com/StevenLShafer/COVID19/. Please contact me at steven.shafer@Stanford.edu if
you would like to be added or removed from the recipient list. Suggestions are most welcome! You are welcome to use the R code on GitHub for any purpose. If
you create new graphs, please let me know, as I may want to add them to my analyses.
I am attempting to keep the analysis and commentary apolitical. I am now including partisan lean as a metric. This is just more data to understand the COVID
epidemic. I occasionally point outmisrepresentations.
I try to provide a daily update in the morning. However, as an anesthesiologist at Stanford, when I have clinical duties my analysis my be delayed.
There is a lot of information on the figures. If something isn’t clear, please see the explanation on slide 2.
Data sources:
• USA Case Data: https://usafactsstatic.blob.core.windows.net/public/data/covid-19/covid_confirmed_usafacts.csv
• USA Death Data: https://usafactsstatic.blob.core.windows.net/public/data/covid-19/covid_deaths_usafacts.csv
• USA Testing and Hospitalization Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/COVID19Tracking/covid-tracking-data/master/data/states_daily_4pm_et.csv
• Global Case Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_global.csv
• Global Death Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv
• Global Testing Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/owid/covid-19-data/master/public/data/owid-covid-data.csv
• Mobility Data: https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/Global_Mobility_Report.csv
• Partisan Lean: MIT Election Data and Science Lab: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/VOQCHQ/HEIJCQ
Models:
1. Future projections of case numbers are based on the Gompertz function: log 𝑐𝑢𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 = 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 + 𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 − 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 1 −

2. 2,586,092
152,804
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
USA projection as of 2020-05-27
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,662,302 -- Deaths: 98,220 -- Deaths per 10,000: 3.1 -- Case Mortality: 5.9% -- Daily Change in Cases: -0.5%
Explanation of the Figures
2
Brown dots:
cumulative tests
Red dots: cumulative cases
used to estimate Gompertz
function, presently set to last
3 weeks
Red line: predicted cumulative
cases based on the Gompertz
function estimated from the red
dots
Red number: total cases
on June 30th, based on
the Gompertz function
estimated from the red
dots
Black number: total
cases on Jyly 31th,
based on log-linear
regression of the past
21 days
Black line: predicted
cumulative deaths, based on
a log linear regression of
deaths over past 21 days.
Axis for deaths / day, usually
1/10th of the axis for cases /
day on the left side of the
figure.
Green line: linear regression
over 8 days, used to calculate
percent increase / decrease
(see below)
Daily change in cases,
calculated as the slope of the
green line (above left) /
number of new cases
yesterday.
Case mortality:
cumulative deaths
/ cumulative cases.
Cases / day calculated
from cumulative cases
used to estimate the
Gompertz function
Cases / day calculated
from cumulative cases
not used to estimate the
Gompertz function
Deaths / day,
axis is on the left
Cumulative deaths
/ population *
10,000
Blue line: today
Blue dots: cumulative cases not
used to estimate Gompertz
function
Yesterday’s
total cases
and deaths
Axis for cases / day.
Axis for deaths / day
appears to the right.
Geographic
location
Date of analysis,
also shown as
blue vertical line
below

3. US v. Asia and Europe
3

4. USA
3,598,300
151,613
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
USA projection as of 2020-07-01
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,635,417 -- Deaths: 127,417 -- Case Mortality: 4.8% -- Daily Change: +2.4% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
4

5. Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam
37,845
1,431
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam projection as of 2020-07-01
0
200
400
600
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 34,991 -- Deaths: 1,312 -- Case Mortality: 3.7% -- Daily Change: +4.5% Cases, -0.3% Deaths
5

6. Western Europe
1,445,478
173,518
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Western Europe projection as of 2020-07-01
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,363,249 -- Deaths: 163,530 -- Case Mortality: 12.0% -- Daily Change: -1.1% Cases, -0.8% Deaths
6

7. US States
7

8. Change in New Cases per Day
New cases are:
Increasing > +3%
Increasing between +1% and +3%
No Change (-1% to +1%)
Decreasing between -1% and -3%
Decreasing > -3%
New cases by state as of 2020-07-01
8

9. Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
PercentofPeak
Daily Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
9

10. Change in New Deaths per Day
New deaths are:
Increasing > +0.5%
Increasing between +0.1% and +0.5%
No Change (-0.1% to +0.1%)
Decreasing between -0.1% and -0.5%
Decreasing > -0.5%
New deaths by state as of 2020-07-01
10

11. Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
PercentofPeak
Daily Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
11

12. Deaths per million
AK
VT
WY
HI
MT
WV
ID
ME
ND
OR
UT
OK
NV
KS
WI
CO
WA
TX
IA
KY
MO
MI
MN
TN
SD
NC
IN
NE
CA
NM
OH
AR
SC
GA
FL
CT
VA
PA
MD
IL
AL
DC
NH
LA
MA
MS
RI
AZ
NY
DE
NJ
0
10
20
30
0 10 20 30 40 50
State
Averagedeathsperdaypermillionpopulation
Averaged over past 7 days
US COVID-19 Death Rates
12

13. Percent Population Tested
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
PercentPopulationTested
Testing as a Percent of State Population
13

14. Testing trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Numberofdailytestsfrommintomax
Testing trends from min to max
14

15. Percent Positive Tests
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
PercentPositive(%)
Percent Positive Tests Over Last 28 Days
15

16. Positive fraction trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Fractionpositivefrommintomax
Positive fraction trends from min to max
16

17. Hospitalizations trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Hospitalizationsfrommintomax
Hospitalizations trends from min to max
17

18. Case Mortality vs. Testing
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
DC
FL
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MNMS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD TNTX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
2.5
5.0
7.5
5 10 15 20
% Tested
%Mortality
Mortality vs. Testing as of 2020-07-01
18

19. Alabama
65,901
1,382
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Alabama projection as of 2020-07-01
0
300
600
900
0
30
60
90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 38,045 -- Deaths: 950 -- Case Mortality: 2.5% -- Daily Change: +4.3% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
19

20. Alaska
1,420
14
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Alaska projection as of 2020-07-01
0
10
20
0.0
1.0
2.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 932 -- Deaths: 13 -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: +11.2% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
20

21. Arizona
204,649
3,026
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Arizona projection as of 2020-07-01
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
0
100
200
300
400
500
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 79,216 -- Deaths: 1,648 -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: +2.4% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
21

22. Arkansas
39,287
602
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Arkansas projection as of 2020-07-01
0
200
400
600
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 20,991 -- Deaths: 272 -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: -1.1% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
22

23. California
397,215
8,529
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
California projection as of 2020-07-01
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
0
200
400
600
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 230,376 -- Deaths: 6,081 -- Case Mortality: 2.6% -- Daily Change: +2.9% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
23

24. Colorado
38,793
1,885
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Colorado projection as of 2020-07-01
0
200
400
600
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 32,974 -- Deaths: 1,695 -- Case Mortality: 5.1% -- Daily Change: +0.4% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
24

25. Connecticut
49,441
4,655
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Connecticut projection as of 2020-07-01
0
500
1,000
0
50
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 46,860 -- Deaths: 4,329 -- Case Mortality: 9.2% -- Daily Change: +5.9% Cases, -0.5% Deaths
25

26. Delaware
13,222
768
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Delaware projection as of 2020-07-01
0
50
100
150
200
250
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 11,526 -- Deaths: 509 -- Case Mortality: 4.4% -- Daily Change: +9.1% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
26

27. District of Columbia
11,335
647
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
District of Columbia projection as of 2020-07-01
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 10,327 -- Deaths: 551 -- Case Mortality: 5.3% -- Daily Change: -0.1% Cases, -0.4% Deaths
27

28. Florida
348,820
4,874
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Florida projection as of 2020-07-01
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
0
250
500
750
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 152,434 -- Deaths: 3,507 -- Case Mortality: 2.3% -- Daily Change: +5.7% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
28

29. Georgia
127,032
3,736
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Georgia projection as of 2020-07-01
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 83,231 -- Deaths: 2,809 -- Case Mortality: 3.4% -- Daily Change: +5.3% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
29

30. Hawaii
1,290
19
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Hawaii projection as of 2020-07-01
0
10
20
30
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 922 -- Deaths: 18 -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: +3.4% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
30

31. Idaho
11,704
103
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Idaho projection as of 2020-07-01
0
100
200
0
10
20
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,125 -- Deaths: 93 -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: +5.1% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
31

32. Illinois
160,784
8,477
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Illinois projection as of 2020-07-01
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
100
200
300
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 143,514 -- Deaths: 6,927 -- Case Mortality: 4.8% -- Daily Change: +0.9% Cases, -0.4% Deaths
32

33. Indiana
55,777
3,216
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Indiana projection as of 2020-07-01
0
250
500
750
1,000
0
25
50
75
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 45,594 -- Deaths: 2,730 -- Case Mortality: 6.0% -- Daily Change: +2.0% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
33

34. Iowa
38,997
854
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Iowa projection as of 2020-07-01
0
200
400
600
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 29,061 -- Deaths: 713 -- Case Mortality: 2.5% -- Daily Change: +0.6% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
34

35. Kansas
20,345
350
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Kansas projection as of 2020-07-01
0
100
200
300
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 14,537 -- Deaths: 280 -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: +2.0% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
35

36. Kentucky
21,914
716
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Kentucky projection as of 2020-07-01
0
100
200
0
10
20
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 15,712 -- Deaths: 573 -- Case Mortality: 3.6% -- Daily Change: -0.5% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
36

37. Louisiana
80,528
3,558
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Louisiana projection as of 2020-07-01
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 58,551 -- Deaths: 3,117 -- Case Mortality: 5.3% -- Daily Change: +1.2% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
37

38. Maine
4,156
112
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Maine projection as of 2020-07-01
0
20
40
0.0
2.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,304 -- Deaths: 105 -- Case Mortality: 3.2% -- Daily Change: +4.6% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
38

39. Maryland
77,928
3,881
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Maryland projection as of 2020-07-01
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
0
25
50
75
100
125
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 67,564 -- Deaths: 3,228 -- Case Mortality: 4.8% -- Daily Change: +2.1% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
39

40. Massachusetts
115,360
9,167
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Massachusetts projection as of 2020-07-01
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
100
200
300
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 109,575 -- Deaths: 8,062 -- Case Mortality: 7.4% -- Daily Change: -1.1% Cases, -0.8% Deaths
40

41. Michigan
77,428
6,526
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Michigan projection as of 2020-07-01
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 70,728 -- Deaths: 6,195 -- Case Mortality: 8.8% -- Daily Change: +2.2% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
41

42. Minnesota
47,135
1,832
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Minnesota projection as of 2020-07-01
0
200
400
600
800
0
20
40
60
80
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 36,316 -- Deaths: 1,445 -- Case Mortality: 4.0% -- Daily Change: +2.5% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
42

43. Mississippi
42,350
1,479
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Mississippi projection as of 2020-07-01
0
200
400
600
800
0
20
40
60
80
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 27,358 -- Deaths: 1,074 -- Case Mortality: 3.9% -- Daily Change: -2.3% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
43

44. Missouri
32,576
1,360
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Missouri projection as of 2020-07-01
0
100
200
300
400
500
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 21,709 -- Deaths: 1,024 -- Case Mortality: 4.7% -- Daily Change: +2.9% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
44

45. Montana
1,597
34
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Montana projection as of 2020-07-01
0
10
20
30
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 995 -- Deaths: 24 -- Case Mortality: 2.4% -- Daily Change: +6.1% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
45

46. Nebraska
23,464
444
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Nebraska projection as of 2020-07-01
0
100
200
300
400
500
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 19,017 -- Deaths: 281 -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: +1.5% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
46

47. Nevada
34,871
623
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Nevada projection as of 2020-07-01
0
200
400
600
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 18,731 -- Deaths: 523 -- Case Mortality: 2.8% -- Daily Change: +6.5% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
47

48. New Hampshire
6,696
504
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Hampshire projection as of 2020-07-01
0
30
60
90
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,866 -- Deaths: 372 -- Case Mortality: 6.3% -- Daily Change: +2.3% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
48

49. New Jersey
183,758
18,746
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Jersey projection as of 2020-07-01
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
100
200
300
400
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 175,891 -- Deaths: 15,092 -- Case Mortality: 8.6% -- Daily Change: +0.3% Cases, +7.6% Deaths
49

50. New Mexico
16,519
685
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Mexico projection as of 2020-07-01
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 12,147 -- Deaths: 512 -- Case Mortality: 4.2% -- Daily Change: +1.9% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
50

51. New York
410,398
36,248
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New York projection as of 2020-07-01
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 393,617 -- Deaths: 35,047 -- Case Mortality: 8.9% -- Daily Change: -1.9% Cases, +1.2% Deaths
51

52. North Carolina
112,570
1,976
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
North Carolina projection as of 2020-07-01
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 64,876 -- Deaths: 1,343 -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: +2.0% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
52

53. North Dakota
4,496
90
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
North Dakota projection as of 2020-07-01
0
20
40
60
80
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,615 -- Deaths: 79 -- Case Mortality: 2.2% -- Daily Change: +4.8% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
53

54. Ohio
70,609
3,556
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Ohio projection as of 2020-07-01
0
300
600
900
0
30
60
90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 51,796 -- Deaths: 2,863 -- Case Mortality: 5.5% -- Daily Change: +1.6% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
54

55. Oklahoma
24,755
437
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Oklahoma projection as of 2020-07-01
0
100
200
300
400
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 13,758 -- Deaths: 387 -- Case Mortality: 2.8% -- Daily Change: +0.5% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
55

56. Oregon
15,160
280
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Oregon projection as of 2020-07-01
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 8,656 -- Deaths: 208 -- Case Mortality: 2.4% -- Daily Change: +1.8% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
56

57. Pennsylvania
99,123
7,643
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Pennsylvania projection as of 2020-07-01
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 86,607 -- Deaths: 6,649 -- Case Mortality: 7.7% -- Daily Change: +0.9% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
57

58. Rhode Island
19,521
1,582
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Rhode Island projection as of 2020-07-01
0
200
400
0
20
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 17,984 -- Deaths: 1,035 -- Case Mortality: 5.8% -- Daily Change: -2.9% Cases, -2.9% Deaths
58

59. South Carolina
86,491
1,051
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Carolina projection as of 2020-07-01
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 36,303 -- Deaths: 737 -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: +4.5% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
59

60. South Dakota
8,481
138
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Dakota projection as of 2020-07-01
0
50
100
150
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,764 -- Deaths: 93 -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: +0.5% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
60

61. Tennessee
69,026
965
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Tennessee projection as of 2020-07-01
0
300
600
900
0
30
60
90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 42,873 -- Deaths: 606 -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: +4.7% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
61

62. Texas
355,502
3,604
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Texas projection as of 2020-07-01
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
0
200
400
600
800
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 160,021 -- Deaths: 2,425 -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: +2.4% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
62

63. Utah
39,061
263
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Utah projection as of 2020-07-01
0
200
400
600
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 22,384 -- Deaths: 172 -- Case Mortality: 0.8% -- Daily Change: +1.8% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
63

64. Vermont
1,379
67
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Vermont projection as of 2020-07-01
0
10
20
30
40
50
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,228 -- Deaths: 65 -- Case Mortality: 5.3% -- Daily Change: -10.2% Cases, -0.3% Deaths
64

65. Virginia
78,188
2,208
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Virginia projection as of 2020-07-01
0
400
800
1,200
0
40
80
120
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 62,787 -- Deaths: 1,763 -- Case Mortality: 2.8% -- Daily Change: +0.4% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
65

66. Washington
47,100
1,586
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Washington projection as of 2020-07-01
0
200
400
0
20
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 33,962 -- Deaths: 1,335 -- Case Mortality: 3.9% -- Daily Change: +1.2% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
66

67. West Virginia
4,028
106
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
West Virginia projection as of 2020-07-01
0
10
20
30
40
50
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,888 -- Deaths: 93 -- Case Mortality: 3.2% -- Daily Change: +2.0% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
67

68. Wisconsin
39,118
1,008
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Wisconsin projection as of 2020-07-01
0
100
200
300
400
500
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 28,660 -- Deaths: 784 -- Case Mortality: 2.7% -- Daily Change: +3.8% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
68

69. Wyoming
2,382
26
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Wyoming projection as of 2020-07-01
0
20
40
0.0
2.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,487 -- Deaths: 20 -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: +1.8% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
69

70. US Counties
70

71. Change in New Cases per Day
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
NA
Trends by county as of 2020-07-01
NA = Inadequate data
71

72. Percent Change by Partisan Lean
-10
-5
0
5
10
0 25 50 75 100
Percent Republican
Percentchangeinnewcasesperday
25
50
75
Republican
Counties by 2016 presidential election results
Dark green line is a Friedman's supersmoother
72

73. Percent Change by Population
-10
-5
0
5
10
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
Population
Percentchangeinnewcasesperday
25
50
75
Republican
Counties by Population
Dark green line is a Friedman's 'super smoother'
73

74. Partisan Lean vs Population and Direction
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
0 25 50 75 100
Percent Republican
Population
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
Partisan Lean vs Population and Direction
Dark green line is a Friedman's 'super smoother'
74

75. Cases as a Percent of Population
0.001%
0.01%
0.1%
1%
10%
20%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Totalcases
Total Cases as a Percent of County Population
Slanted lines are counties with small integer numbers of cases, green line: Friedman's 'super smoother'
75

76. Deaths as a Percent of Population
0.0001%
0.001%
0.01%
0.1%
1%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Totaldeaths
Total Deaths as a Percent of County Population
Slanted lines are counties with small integer numbers of cases, green line: Friedman's 'super smoother'
76

77. Case Mortality vs. Population
0.1%
1%
10%
100%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Casemortality
Case Mortality vs. County Population
77

78. New York City
224,245
23,785
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
New York City projection as of 2020-07-01
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
0
250
500
750
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 215,179 -- Deaths: 23,056 -- Case Mortality: 10.7% -- Daily Change: -2.5% Cases, +2.6% Deaths
78

79. Westchester County, NY
35,731
1,460
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Westchester County, NY projection as of 2020-07-01
0
300
600
900
0
30
60
90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 34,838 -- Deaths: 1,425 -- Case Mortality: 4.1% -- Daily Change: +1.1% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
79

80. Bergen County, NJ
20,251
2,480
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Bergen County, NJ projection as of 2020-07-01
0
200
400
600
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 19,423 -- Deaths: 1,989 -- Case Mortality: 10.2% -- Daily Change: +3.0% Cases, +8.4% Deaths
80

81. Hudson County, NJ
19,014
1,714
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Hudson County, NJ projection as of 2020-07-01
0
200
400
0
20
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 18,841 -- Deaths: 1,451 -- Case Mortality: 7.7% -- Daily Change: +4.7% Cases, +31.5% Deaths
81

82. King County (Seattle)
12,302
660
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
King County (Seattle) projection as of 2020-07-01
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 10,177 -- Deaths: 610 -- Case Mortality: 6.0% -- Daily Change: +4.3% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
82

83. Clark County, Washington
889
38
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Clark County, Washington projection as of 2020-07-01
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 731 -- Deaths: 30 -- Case Mortality: 4.1% -- Daily Change: +7.9% Cases, -0.5% Deaths
83

84. Los Angeles
163,495
4,521
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Los Angeles projection as of 2020-07-01
0
1,000
2,000
0
100
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 103,529 -- Deaths: 3,369 -- Case Mortality: 3.3% -- Daily Change: +3.2% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
84

85. Bay Area
23,298
420
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Bay Area projection as of 2020-07-01
0
100
200
300
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 15,153 -- Deaths: 367 -- Case Mortality: 2.4% -- Daily Change: +0.8% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
85

86. San Francisco
4,740
61
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Francisco projection as of 2020-07-01
0
20
40
60
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,603 -- Deaths: 50 -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: +0.1% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
86

87. Santa Clara and San Mateo
10,871
299
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Santa Clara and San Mateo projection as of 2020-07-01
0
50
100
150
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,602 -- Deaths: 264 -- Case Mortality: 3.5% -- Daily Change: +1.2% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
87

88. Alameda County
9,312
193
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Alameda County projection as of 2020-07-01
0
50
100
0.0
5.0
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,964 -- Deaths: 135 -- Case Mortality: 2.3% -- Daily Change: +0.6% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
88

89. San Luis Obispo, California
1,245
1
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Luis Obispo, California projection as of 2020-07-01
0
10
20
30
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 611 -- Deaths: 1 -- Case Mortality: 0.2% -- Daily Change: +8.6% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
89

90. Fresno, California
8,869
149
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Fresno, California projection as of 2020-07-01
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,008 -- Deaths: 73 -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: +0.9% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
90

91. Santa Barbara County
4,721
80
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Santa Barbara County projection as of 2020-07-01
0
50
100
150
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,896 -- Deaths: 29 -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: +0.8% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
91

92. Merced County
2,813
27
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Merced County projection as of 2020-07-01
0
25
50
75
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,064 -- Deaths: 11 -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: +9.9% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
92

93. Yolo County
1,322
24
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Yolo County projection as of 2020-07-01
0
10
20
30
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 526 -- Deaths: 24 -- Case Mortality: 4.6% -- Daily Change: +4.0% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
93

94. San Diego County
22,220
478
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Diego County projection as of 2020-07-01
0
100
200
300
400
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 14,149 -- Deaths: 365 -- Case Mortality: 2.6% -- Daily Change: +4.5% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
94

95. Imperial County
10,530
298
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Imperial County projection as of 2020-07-01
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,242 -- Deaths: 93 -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: -6.7% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
95

96. Multnomah County (Portland)
3,760
73
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Multnomah County (Portland) projection as of 2020-07-01
0
20
40
0.0
2.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,202 -- Deaths: 69 -- Case Mortality: 3.1% -- Daily Change: -0.1% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
96

97. Utah County
7,025
31
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Utah County projection as of 2020-07-01
0
30
60
90
120
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 4,084 -- Deaths: 22 -- Case Mortality: 0.5% -- Daily Change: +0.8% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
97

98. Summit County, Utah
488
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Summit County, Utah projection as of 2020-07-01
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 488 -- Deaths: NA -- Case Mortality: NA% -- Daily Change: -5.0% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
98

99. De Soto Parish, Louisiana
503
21
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
De Soto Parish, Louisiana projection as of 2020-07-01
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 348 -- Deaths: 18 -- Case Mortality: 5.2% -- Daily Change: +3.1% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
99

100. Dallas, Texas
35,195
540
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Dallas, Texas projection as of 2020-07-01
0
200
400
0
20
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 20,737 -- Deaths: 353 -- Case Mortality: 1.7% -- Daily Change: +3.2% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
100

101. Collin Texas
5,758
50
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Collin Texas projection as of 2020-07-01
0
30
60
90
120
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,882 -- Deaths: 42 -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: +5.5% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
101

102. Harris County (Houston)
69,484
684
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Harris County (Houston) projection as of 2020-07-01
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 30,729 -- Deaths: 376 -- Case Mortality: 1.2% -- Daily Change: -2.1% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
102

103. Tulsa County, Oklahoma
9,689
79
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tulsa County, Oklahoma projection as of 2020-07-01
0
50
100
150
200
250
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,424 -- Deaths: 67 -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: -3.5% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
103

104. McLean County, Illinois
295
13
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
McLean County, Illinois projection as of 2020-07-01
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
0.00
0.30
0.60
0.90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 260 -- Deaths: 13 -- Case Mortality: 5.0% -- Daily Change: +2.3% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
104

105. Cook County, Illinois
99,277
5,514
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Cook County, Illinois projection as of 2020-07-01
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 90,536 -- Deaths: 4,565 -- Case Mortality: 5.0% -- Daily Change: +0.8% Cases, -0.5% Deaths
105

106. Suffolk County (Boston)
20,680
1,129
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Suffolk County (Boston) projection as of 2020-07-01
0
200
400
600
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 19,819 -- Deaths: 1,002 -- Case Mortality: 5.1% -- Daily Change: -0.8% Cases, -0.5% Deaths
106

107. Polk County, Iowa
7,639
216
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Polk County, Iowa projection as of 2020-07-01
0
50
100
150
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,025 -- Deaths: 177 -- Case Mortality: 2.9% -- Daily Change: +2.3% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
107

108. Johnson County, Iowa
2,095
8
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Johnson County, Iowa projection as of 2020-07-01
0
10
20
30
40
50
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,134 -- Deaths: 8 -- Case Mortality: 0.7% -- Daily Change: +5.1% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
108

109. Erie County, New York
8,171
624
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Erie County, New York projection as of 2020-07-01
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,292 -- Deaths: 571 -- Case Mortality: 7.8% -- Daily Change: -0.7% Cases, -0.5% Deaths
109

110. Oakland County, Michigan
13,093
1,135
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Oakland County, Michigan projection as of 2020-07-01
0
200
400
600
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 12,017 -- Deaths: 1,090 -- Case Mortality: 9.1% -- Daily Change: -2.0% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
110

111. St. Louis (City)
2,932
195
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Louis (City) projection as of 2020-07-01
0
20
40
60
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,414 -- Deaths: 154 -- Case Mortality: 6.4% -- Daily Change: +5.0% Cases, -0.4% Deaths
111

112. St. Louis (County)
7,906
771
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Louis (County) projection as of 2020-07-01
0
50
100
150
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,447 -- Deaths: 589 -- Case Mortality: 9.1% -- Daily Change: +5.7% Cases, -0.6% Deaths
112

113. Baltimore (City)
9,085
428
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Baltimore (City) projection as of 2020-07-01
0
50
100
150
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,546 -- Deaths: 337 -- Case Mortality: 4.5% -- Daily Change: +0.1% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
113

114. Durham County
6,343
79
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Durham County projection as of 2020-07-01
0
25
50
75
100
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,674 -- Deaths: 61 -- Case Mortality: 1.7% -- Daily Change: +1.2% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
114

115. Cuyahoga County (Cleveland)
9,605
477
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) projection as of 2020-07-01
0
50
100
150
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,831 -- Deaths: 364 -- Case Mortality: 5.3% -- Daily Change: +2.4% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
115

116. Wayne County (Detroit)
24,231
2,803
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Wayne County (Detroit) projection as of 2020-07-01
0
200
400
600
800
0
20
40
60
80
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 22,767 -- Deaths: 2,720 -- Case Mortality: 11.9% -- Daily Change: -0.1% Cases, +0.2% Deaths
116

117. Miami-Dade
63,942
1,367
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Miami-Dade projection as of 2020-07-01
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 36,820 -- Deaths: 991 -- Case Mortality: 2.7% -- Daily Change: +8.9% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
117

118. Maricopa County
139,826
1,422
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Maricopa County projection as of 2020-07-01
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
100
200
300
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 48,592 -- Deaths: 771 -- Case Mortality: 1.6% -- Daily Change: +3.0% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
118

119. Denver County
8,338
409
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Denver County projection as of 2020-07-01
0
50
100
150
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,091 -- Deaths: 381 -- Case Mortality: 5.4% -- Daily Change: -0.2% Cases, +0.2% Deaths
119

120. Arapahoe County
5,841
361
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Arapahoe County projection as of 2020-07-01
0
50
100
0.0
5.0
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,202 -- Deaths: 344 -- Case Mortality: 6.6% -- Daily Change: -0.5% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
120

121. Montrose County
226
12
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Montrose County projection as of 2020-07-01
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 207 -- Deaths: 12 -- Case Mortality: 5.8% -- Daily Change: +9.6% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
121

122. International
122

123. Italy
246,633
35,828
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Italy projection as of 2020-07-01
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
0
200
400
600
800
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 240,578 -- Deaths: 34,767 -- Case Mortality: 14.5% -- Daily Change: -4.7% Cases, -1.3% Deaths
123

124. Spain
257,795
28,752
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Spain projection as of 2020-07-01
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
0
250
500
750
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 249,271 -- Deaths: 28,752 -- Case Mortality: 11.5% -- Daily Change: +0.0% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
124

125. Portugal
51,907
1,680
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Portugal projection as of 2020-07-01
0
250
500
750
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 42,141 -- Deaths: 1,576 -- Case Mortality: 3.7% -- Daily Change: -0.7% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
125

126. France
213,168
30,692
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
France projection as of 2020-07-01
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
0
250
500
750
1,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 202,063 -- Deaths: 29,846 -- Case Mortality: 14.8% -- Daily Change: +4.7% Cases, -0.3% Deaths
126

127. Germany
207,965
9,374
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Germany projection as of 2020-07-01
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
0
200
400
600
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 195,418 -- Deaths: 8,990 -- Case Mortality: 4.6% -- Daily Change: -4.9% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
127

128. Switzerland
32,426
2,011
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Switzerland projection as of 2020-07-01
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
0
25
50
75
100
125
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 31,714 -- Deaths: 1,963 -- Case Mortality: 6.2% -- Daily Change: +5.2% Cases, -0.4% Deaths
128

129. Austria
18,607
757
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Austria projection as of 2020-07-01
0
250
500
750
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 17,766 -- Deaths: 705 -- Case Mortality: 4.0% -- Daily Change: +5.4% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
129

130. Sweden
106,750
6,349
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Sweden projection as of 2020-07-01
0
500
1,000
0
50
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 68,451 -- Deaths: 5,333 -- Case Mortality: 7.8% -- Daily Change: -0.3% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
130

131. Netherlands
53,280
6,241
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Netherlands projection as of 2020-07-01
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 50,483 -- Deaths: 6,132 -- Case Mortality: 12.1% -- Daily Change: -1.3% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
131

132. United Kingdom
344,747
48,210
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
United Kingdom projection as of 2020-07-01
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
0
250
500
750
1,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 314,160 -- Deaths: 43,815 -- Case Mortality: 13.9% -- Daily Change: -2.0% Cases, -0.4% Deaths
132

133. Iceland
1,884
10
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Iceland projection as of 2020-07-01
0
20
40
60
80
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,842 -- Deaths: 10 -- Case Mortality: 0.5% -- Daily Change: +4.1% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
133

134. Canada
115,552
9,705
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Canada projection as of 2020-07-01
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 106,097 -- Deaths: 8,650 -- Case Mortality: 8.2% -- Daily Change: +0.4% Cases, -0.6% Deaths
134

135. Australia
8,495
106
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Australia projection as of 2020-07-01
0
100
200
300
400
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,920 -- Deaths: 104 -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: +11.4% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
135

136. New Zealand
1,561
22
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Zealand projection as of 2020-07-01
0
20
40
60
80
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,528 -- Deaths: 22 -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: -6.0% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
136

137. China
85,597
4,647
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
China projection as of 2020-07-01
0
2,000
4,000
0
200
400
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 84,785 -- Deaths: 4,641 -- Case Mortality: 5.5% -- Daily Change: -8.3% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
137

138. South Korea
13,997
293
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Korea projection as of 2020-07-01
0
200
400
600
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 12,850 -- Deaths: 282 -- Case Mortality: 2.2% -- Daily Change: +1.8% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
138

139. Singapore
50,149
27
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Singapore projection as of 2020-07-01
0
300
600
900
0
30
60
90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 43,907 -- Deaths: 26 -- Case Mortality: 0.1% -- Daily Change: +2.7% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
139

140. Japan
20,242
1,081
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Japan projection as of 2020-07-01
0
200
400
600
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 18,615 -- Deaths: 972 -- Case Mortality: 5.2% -- Daily Change: +6.2% Cases, -0.4% Deaths
140

141. South Africa
413,441
8,498
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Africa projection as of 2020-07-01
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
0
300
600
900
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 151,209 -- Deaths: 2,657 -- Case Mortality: 1.8% -- Daily Change: +3.8% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
141

142. Israel
34,839
352
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Israel projection as of 2020-07-01
0
200
400
600
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 25,244 -- Deaths: 320 -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: +6.2% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
142

143. Turkey
237,982
5,815
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Turkey projection as of 2020-07-01
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
0
100
200
300
400
500
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 199,906 -- Deaths: 5,131 -- Case Mortality: 2.6% -- Daily Change: +0.3% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
143

144. Iran
307,086
15,480
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Iran projection as of 2020-07-01
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
100
200
300
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 227,662 -- Deaths: 10,817 -- Case Mortality: 4.8% -- Daily Change: +0.1% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
144

145. Egypt
97,574
10,614
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Egypt projection as of 2020-07-01
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 68,311 -- Deaths: 2,953 -- Case Mortality: 4.3% -- Daily Change: -0.8% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
145

146. Bahrain
41,934
421
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Bahrain projection as of 2020-07-01
0
200
400
600
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 26,758 -- Deaths: 87 -- Case Mortality: 0.3% -- Daily Change: -0.9% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
146

147. Brazil
2,660,186
111,619
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Brazil projection as of 2020-07-01
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,402,041 -- Deaths: 59,594 -- Case Mortality: 4.3% -- Daily Change: -0.2% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
147

148. Russia
902,544
16,808
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Russia projection as of 2020-07-01
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 646,929 -- Deaths: 9,306 -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: -0.9% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
148

149. India
1,208,625
58,451
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
India projection as of 2020-07-01
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 585,481 -- Deaths: 17,400 -- Case Mortality: 3.0% -- Daily Change: +2.3% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
149

150. Pakistan
399,727
12,133
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Pakistan projection as of 2020-07-01
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
0
200
400
600
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 213,470 -- Deaths: 4,395 -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: -0.2% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
150

151. Mexico
406,516
72,983
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Mexico projection as of 2020-07-01
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
0
250
500
750
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 226,089 -- Deaths: 27,769 -- Case Mortality: 12.3% -- Daily Change: -1.6% Cases, -0.3% Deaths
151

152. Case Mortality vs. Testing
BHR
LUX
ISL
DNK
LTU
RUS
QAT
PRT
BLR
ISR
USA
AUS
KWT
ITA
MDV
NZL
IRL
BEL
EST
LVA
KAZ
GBR
CAN
ESP
AUT
CHE
DEU
SGP
NOR
SRBCHL
CZE
SVN
SAU
SWE
FIN
TUR
SVK
ROU
POL
NLD
GRC
HUN
PANZAF
SLV
KOR
MYS
BGRIRN
HRV
URY
MAR
CUB
UKR
COL
RWA
GHAPRY
ARG
PER
THA
ECU
BOLIND
PHL
TUN
PAK
CRI
SEN
NPL
BGD
MEX
JPN
UGA
TWN
KEN
VNM
BRA
ETH
ZWE
IDN
MMR
NGA
0
5
10
15
0 10 20 30
% Tested
%CaseMortality
Case Mortality vs. Testing as of 2020-07-01
152