This document contains data on COVID-19 cases and trends in various US counties as of July 30, 2020. It includes charts showing case growth rates, mortality rates, and projections of future cases and deaths for several heavily impacted counties such as New York City, Los Angeles, and counties in the San Francisco Bay Area. The data examines differences based on county population size, political leanings, and regional trends over time.

1. US Counties
US Counties: 1

2. Change in New Cases per Day
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
NA
Trends by county as of 2020-07-30
NA = Inadequate data
2020-07-30 US Counties: 2

3. Percent Change by Partisan Lean
-10
-5
0
5
10
0 25 50 75 100
Percent Republican
Percentchangeinnewcasesperday
25
50
75
Republican
Counties by 2016 presidential election results
Dark green line is a Friedman's supersmoother
2020-07-30 US Counties: 3

4. Percent Change by Population
-10
-5
0
5
10
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
Population
Percentchangeinnewcasesperday
25
50
75
Republican
Counties by Population
Dark green line is a Friedman's 'super smoother'
2020-07-30 US Counties: 4

5. Partisan Lean vs Population and Direction
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
0 25 50 75 100
Percent Republican
Population
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
Partisan Lean vs Population and Direction
Dark green line is a Friedman's 'super smoother'
2020-07-30 US Counties: 5

6. Cases as a Percent of Population
0.001%
0.01%
0.1%
1%
10%
20%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Totalcases
Total Cases as a Percent of County Population
Slanted lines are counties with small integer numbers of cases, green line: Friedman's 'super smoother'
2020-07-30 US Counties: 6

7. Deaths as a Percent of Population
0.0001%
0.001%
0.01%
0.1%
1%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Totaldeaths
Total Deaths as a Percent of County Population
Slanted lines are counties with small integer numbers of cases, green line: Friedman's 'super smoother'
2020-07-30 US Counties: 7

8. Case Mortality vs. Population
0.1%
1%
10%
100%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Casemortality
Case Mortality vs. County Population
2020-07-30 US Counties: 8

9. New York City
233,432
23,977
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
New York City projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0
200
400
600
800
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 224,551 (302) -- Deaths: 23,512 (5) -- Case Mortality: 10.5% -- Daily Change: -2.1% Cases, -2.8% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 9

10. Westchester County, NY
36,745
1,466
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Westchester County, NY projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 35,874 (36) -- Deaths: 1,443 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.0% -- Daily Change: +0.5% Cases, -9.4% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 10

11. Bergen County, NJ
21,030
2,083
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Bergen County, NJ projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
300
600
900
1,200
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 20,391 (50) -- Deaths: 2,046 (0) -- Case Mortality: 10.0% -- Daily Change: +8.6% Cases, +6.3% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 11

12. Hudson County, NJ
19,443
1,551
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Hudson County, NJ projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
300
600
900
1,200
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 19,430 (31) -- Deaths: 1,505 (0) -- Case Mortality: 7.7% -- Daily Change: +27.2% Cases, -9.1% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 12

13. King County (Seattle)
21,157
669
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
King County (Seattle) projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 14,856 (139) -- Deaths: 648 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.4% -- Daily Change: -1.6% Cases, +13.2% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 13

14. Clark County, Washington
2,133
42
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Clark County, Washington projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
20
40
60
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,398 (16) -- Deaths: 39 (3) -- Case Mortality: 2.8% -- Daily Change: +0.7% Cases, +25.1% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 14

15. Los Angeles
296,728
6,185
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Los Angeles projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 183,456 (4,814) -- Deaths: 4,518 (92) -- Case Mortality: 2.5% -- Daily Change: -0.5% Cases, +1.1% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 15

16. Bay Area
45,353
710
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Bay Area projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
1,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 32,916 (963) -- Deaths: 499 (14) -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: +0.6% Cases, +2.2% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 16

17. San Francisco
9,979
73
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Francisco projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,197 (132) -- Deaths: 57 (1) -- Case Mortality: 0.9% -- Daily Change: -0.3% Cases, +1.1% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 17

18. Santa Clara and San Mateo
22,587
355
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Santa Clara and San Mateo projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
0
10
20
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 14,918 (505) -- Deaths: 305 (3) -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: +1.3% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 18

19. Alameda County
17,795
277
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Alameda County projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 10,773 (140) -- Deaths: 181 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.7% -- Daily Change: -1.7% Cases, -3.6% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 19

20. San Luis Obispo, California
3,266
49
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Luis Obispo, California projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,710 (66) -- Deaths: 12 (3) -- Case Mortality: 0.7% -- Daily Change: +2.4% Cases, +12.4% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 20

21. Fresno, California
25,498
202
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Fresno, California projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 13,336 (127) -- Deaths: 120 (8) -- Case Mortality: 0.9% -- Daily Change: -1.3% Cases, +2.3% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 21

22. Santa Barbara County
8,253
35
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Santa Barbara County projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,021 (388) -- Deaths: 32 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.5% -- Daily Change: +2.2% Cases, -25.9% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 22

23. Merced County
8,285
223
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Merced County projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,906 (396) -- Deaths: 35 (6) -- Case Mortality: 0.9% -- Daily Change: +8.5% Cases, +5.4% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 23

24. Yolo County
2,102
41
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Yolo County projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
20
40
60
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,477 (31) -- Deaths: 41 (1) -- Case Mortality: 2.8% -- Daily Change: -0.9% Cases, +30.8% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 24

25. San Diego County
39,787
911
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Diego County projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 28,287 (780) -- Deaths: 552 (19) -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: -0.6% Cases, -0.7% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 25

26. Riverside County
59,970
992
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Riverside County projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 36,159 (972) -- Deaths: 682 (11) -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: +3.5% Cases, +3.9% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 26

27. Imperial County
11,635
369
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Imperial County projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 9,241 (52) -- Deaths: 188 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: -4.7% Cases, -1.8% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 27

28. Multnomah County (Portland)
7,218
110
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Multnomah County (Portland) projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
40
80
120
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 4,201 (86) -- Deaths: 87 (3) -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: -0.3% Cases, +11.5% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 28

29. Utah County
12,586
42
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Utah County projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,483 (61) -- Deaths: 32 (1) -- Case Mortality: 0.4% -- Daily Change: -2.3% Cases, -5.3% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 29

30. Summit County, Utah
890
1
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Summit County, Utah projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 679 (6) -- Deaths: 1 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.1% -- Daily Change: -4.8% Cases, NaN% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 30

31. De Soto Parish, Louisiana
959
34
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
De Soto Parish, Louisiana projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 601 (11) -- Deaths: 24 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.0% -- Daily Change: +1.8% Cases, +0.2% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 31

32. St. Francois County, Missouri
421
2
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Francois County, Missouri projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 261 (11) -- Deaths: 2 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.8% -- Daily Change: +7.5% Cases, NaN% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 32

33. Dallas, Texas
85,871
1,251
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Dallas, Texas projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
30
60
90
120
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 48,732 (704) -- Deaths: 658 (36) -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: -4.1% Cases, +3.6% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 33

34. Collin Texas
6,666
137
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Collin Texas projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,147 (209) -- Deaths: 74 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.2% -- Daily Change: -0.2% Cases, -3.3% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 34

35. Harris County (Houston)
90,522
1,518
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Harris County (Houston) projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
25
50
75
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 69,123 (1,468) -- Deaths: 686 (15) -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: -0.9% Cases, +2.2% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 35

36. Tulsa County, Oklahoma
15,342
145
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tulsa County, Oklahoma projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 8,319 (142) -- Deaths: 94 (1) -- Case Mortality: 1.1% -- Daily Change: +3.6% Cases, -2.8% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 36

37. McLean County, Illinois
883
15
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
McLean County, Illinois projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 504 (17) -- Deaths: 15 (0) -- Case Mortality: 3.0% -- Daily Change: +2.5% Cases, NaN% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 37

38. Cook County, Illinois
117,864
5,160
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Cook County, Illinois projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 104,001 (560) -- Deaths: 4,864 (7) -- Case Mortality: 4.7% -- Daily Change: +1.0% Cases, +1.4% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 38

39. Suffolk County (Boston)
22,082
1,125
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Suffolk County (Boston) projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 21,030 (70) -- Deaths: 1,054 (2) -- Case Mortality: 5.0% -- Daily Change: +2.5% Cases, -1.2% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 39

40. Polk County, Iowa
13,375
213
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Polk County, Iowa projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 9,262 (136) -- Deaths: 193 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: -4.3% Cases, -3.9% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 40

41. Johnson County, Iowa
2,547
19
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Johnson County, Iowa projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
20
40
0.0
1.0
2.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,822 (41) -- Deaths: 14 (2) -- Case Mortality: 0.8% -- Daily Change: +0.6% Cases, +17.9% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 41

42. Erie County, New York
9,529
713
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Erie County, New York projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 8,410 (46) -- Deaths: 663 (0) -- Case Mortality: 7.9% -- Daily Change: -0.8% Cases, -13.3% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 42

43. Oakland County, Michigan
16,988
1,178
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Oakland County, Michigan projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
0
10
20
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 14,362 (162) -- Deaths: 1,127 (0) -- Case Mortality: 7.8% -- Daily Change: +2.1% Cases, -3.5% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 43

44. St. Louis (City)
6,591
182
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Louis (City) projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 4,236 (111) -- Deaths: 167 (0) -- Case Mortality: 3.9% -- Daily Change: +3.4% Cases, +5.8% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 44

45. St. Louis (County)
21,341
748
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Louis (County) projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
0
10
20
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 12,366 (439) -- Deaths: 664 (3) -- Case Mortality: 5.4% -- Daily Change: +5.2% Cases, +8.7% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 45

46. Baltimore (City)
15,467
501
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Baltimore (City) projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 10,826 (124) -- Deaths: 404 (1) -- Case Mortality: 3.7% -- Daily Change: +0.9% Cases, -2.3% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 46

47. Durham County
8,129
97
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Durham County projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
30
60
90
0.0
2.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,629 (62) -- Deaths: 76 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: -3.4% Cases, -3.8% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 47

48. Cuyahoga County (Cleveland)
19,078
634
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 12,088 (150) -- Deaths: 465 (5) -- Case Mortality: 3.8% -- Daily Change: -3.0% Cases, +1.6% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 48

49. Wayne County (Detroit)
30,709
2,876
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Wayne County (Detroit) projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 26,689 (358) -- Deaths: 2,792 (3) -- Case Mortality: 10.5% -- Daily Change: +2.7% Cases, -9.8% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 49

50. Miami-Dade
188,274
2,336
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Miami-Dade projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 113,143 (2,791) -- Deaths: 1,455 (30) -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: +0.1% Cases, -2.2% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 50

51. Maricopa County
187,372
5,910
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Maricopa County projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 113,148 (1,702) -- Deaths: 1,915 (33) -- Case Mortality: 1.7% -- Daily Change: -2.9% Cases, -0.9% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 51

52. Denver County
12,290
436
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Denver County projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 9,482 (95) -- Deaths: 408 (1) -- Case Mortality: 4.3% -- Daily Change: +3.2% Cases, +3.8% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 52

53. Arapahoe County
8,640
386
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Arapahoe County projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
250
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,749 (58) -- Deaths: 362 (0) -- Case Mortality: 5.4% -- Daily Change: +2.6% Cases, +5.5% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 53

54. Montrose County
355
16
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Montrose County projection as of 2020-07-30
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 265 (2) -- Deaths: 13 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.9% -- Daily Change: +0.1% Cases, +1.4% Deaths
2020-07-30 US Counties: 54