This is my daily update for COVID-19 trends for July 10, 2020. Prior analyses and the R program code can be found at https://github.com/StevenLShafer/COVID19

1. Caveats and Comments
1
Overview:
This is my analysis, not Stanford’s. It is simply a set of regressions in R to understand the trajectory of COVID. It is not confidential and can be freely shared. The R
program code and all previous PowerPoint files are available at https://github.com/StevenLShafer/COVID19/. Please contact me at steven.shafer@Stanford.edu if
you would like to be added or removed from the recipient list. Suggestions are most welcome! You are welcome to use the R code on GitHub for any purpose. If
you create new graphs, please let me know, as I may want to add them to my analyses.
I am attempting to keep the analysis and commentary apolitical. I am now including partisan lean as a metric. This is just more data to understand the COVID
epidemic. I occasionally point out misrepresentations by government officials. Additionally, as the crisis has worsened, I will point out where government
recommendations have placed Americans at increasing risk.
I try to provide a daily update in the morning. However, as an anesthesiologist at Stanford, when I have clinical duties my analysis my be delayed.
There is a lot of information on the figures. If something isn’t clear, please see the explanation on slide 2.
Data sources:
• USA Case Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv
• USA Death Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv
• USA Testing and Hospitalization Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/COVID19Tracking/covid-tracking-data/master/data/states_daily_4pm_et.csv
• Global Case Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_global.csv
• Global Death Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv
• Global Testing Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/owid/covid-19-data/master/public/data/owid-covid-data.csv
• Mobility Data: https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/Global_Mobility_Report.csv
• Partisan Lean: MIT Election Data and Science Lab: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/VOQCHQ/HEIJCQ
• Ensemble Model: https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/raw/master/data-processed/COVIDhub-ensemble/2020-xx-xx-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv
Models:
1. Future projections of case numbers are based on the Gompertz function: log 𝑐𝑢𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 = 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 + 𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 − 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 1 −

2. 2,586,092
152,804
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
USA projection as of 2020-05-27
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,662,302 (32,123) -- Deaths: 98,220 (829) -- Case Mortality: 5.9% -- Daily Change in Cases: -0.5%
Explanation of the Figures
2
Brown dots:
cumulative tests
Red dots: cumulative cases
used to estimate Gompertz
function, presently set to last
3 weeks
Red line: predicted cumulative
cases based on the Gompertz
function estimated from the red
dots
Red number: total cases
on June 30th, based on
the Gompertz function
estimated from the red
dots
Black number: total
cases on Jyly 31th,
based on log-linear
regression of the past
21 days
Black line: predicted
cumulative deaths, based
on a log linear regression
of deaths over past 21
days.
Axis for deaths / day, usually
1/10th of the axis for cases /
day on the left side of the
figure.
Green line: linear regression
over 8 days, used to calculate
percent increase / decrease
(see below)
Daily change in cases,
calculated as the slope of the
green line (above left) /
number of new cases
yesterday.
Case mortality:
cumulative deaths
/ cumulative cases.
Cases / day calculated
from cumulative cases
used to estimate the
Gompertz function
Cases / day calculated
from cumulative cases
not used to estimate the
Gompertz function
Deaths / day,
axis is on the left
Blue line: today
Blue dots: cumulative cases not
used to estimate Gompertz
function
Cumulative cases
(yesterday’s cases)
and cumulative deaths
(yesterday’s deaths)
Axis for cases / day.
Axis for deaths / day
appears to the right.
Geographic
location
Date of analysis,
also shown as
blue vertical line
below
Purple wedge: 98% ensemble
prediction interval from COVID-19
Forecast Hub (USA and US
States only)

3. US v. Asia and Europe
3

4. USA
4,169,465
149,645
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
USA projection as of 2020-07-10
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,117,946 (63,247) -- Deaths: 133,290 (990) -- Case Mortality: 4.3% -- Daily Change: +3.3% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
4

5. Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam
40,928
1,368
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam projection as of 2020-07-10
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 37,526 (406) -- Deaths: 1,328 (1) -- Case Mortality: 3.5% -- Daily Change: +4.7% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
5

6. Western Europe
1,405,165
168,845
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Western Europe projection as of 2020-07-10
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,357,821 (3,664) -- Deaths: 164,934 (176) -- Case Mortality: 12.1% -- Daily Change: +3.3% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
6

7. US States
7

8. Change in New Cases per Day
New cases are:
Increasing > +3%
Increasing between +1% and +3%
No Change (-1% to +1%)
Decreasing between -1% and -3%
Decreasing > -3%
New cases by state as of 2020-07-10
8

9. Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
PercentofPeak
Daily Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
9

10. Change in New Deaths per Day
New deaths are:
Increasing > +0.5%
Increasing between +0.1% and +0.5%
No Change (-0.1% to +0.1%)
Decreasing between -0.1% and -0.5%
Decreasing > -0.5%
New deaths by state as of 2020-07-10
10

11. Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
PercentofPeak
Daily Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
11

12. Deaths per million
VT
HI
WV
CO
WY
MT
WI
AK
NE
ME
ID
OR
OK
KS
MO
ND
CT
MI
NC
IA
MN
DE
KY
SD
WA
GA
UT
NH
AR
OH
NY
PA
IN
MD
TN
NM
RI
TX
CA
VA
NV
AL
DC
FL
MA
LA
SC
IL
MS
NJ
AZ
0
2
4
6
0 10 20 30 40 50
State
Averagedeathsperdaypermillionpopulation
Averaged over past 7 days
US COVID-19 Death Rates
12

13. Total deaths per million
HI
AK
MT
WY
WV
OR
ID
UT
ME
VT
KS
AR
OK
TX
TN
ND
SD
KY
WI
NC
NE
CA
MO
SC
WA
NV
FL
AL
VA
IA
NM
OH
MN
GA
AZ
NH
CO
MS
IN
DE
PA
MD
IL
MI
LA
DC
RI
MA
CT
NY
NJ
0
500
1000
1500
0 10 20 30 40 50
State
Totaldeathspermillionpopulation
Total deaths per million as of yesterday
US COVID-19 Death Rates
13

14. Percent Population Tested
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
PercentPopulationTested
Testing as a Percent of State Population
14

15. Testing trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Numberofdailytestsfrommintomax
Testing trends from min to max
15

16. Percent Positive Tests
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
PercentPositive(%)
Percent Positive Tests Over Last 28 Days
16

17. Positive fraction trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Fractionpositivefrommintomax
Positive fraction trends from min to max
17

18. Hospitalizations trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Hospitalizationsfrommintomax
Hospitalizations trends from min to max
18

19. Case Mortality vs. Testing
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
DC
FL
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TNTX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WVWI
WY
2.5
5.0
7.5
10 15 20
% Tested
%Mortality
Mortality vs. Testing as of 2020-07-10
19

20. Alabama
72,951
1,423
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Alabama projection as of 2020-07-10
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0
25
50
75
100
125
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 49,174 (2,212) -- Deaths: 1,068 (10) -- Case Mortality: 2.2% -- Daily Change: +5.1% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
20

21. Alaska
2,099
27
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Alaska projection as of 2020-07-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
0.0
1.0
2.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,268 (46) -- Deaths: 17 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: +1.1% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
21

22. Arizona
199,504
3,253
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Arizona projection as of 2020-07-10
0
2,000
4,000
0
100
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 112,671 (4,057) -- Deaths: 2,038 (75) -- Case Mortality: 1.8% -- Daily Change: +0.3% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
22

23. Arkansas
35,734
463
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Arkansas projection as of 2020-07-10
0
250
500
750
1,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 26,052 (806) -- Deaths: 309 (4) -- Case Mortality: 1.2% -- Daily Change: +2.1% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
23

24. California
469,703
8,581
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
California projection as of 2020-07-10
0
5,000
10,000
0
200
400
600
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 302,484 (9,924) -- Deaths: 6,859 (141) -- Case Mortality: 2.3% -- Daily Change: +5.6% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
24

25. Colorado
40,589
1,792
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Colorado projection as of 2020-07-10
0
250
500
750
1,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 35,507 (408) -- Deaths: 1,706 (2) -- Case Mortality: 4.8% -- Daily Change: +7.7% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
25

26. Connecticut
48,641
4,474
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Connecticut projection as of 2020-07-10
0
1,000
2,000
0
50
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 47,209 (101) -- Deaths: 4,348 (5) -- Case Mortality: 9.2% -- Daily Change: +4.8% Cases, -0.4% Deaths
26

27. Delaware
14,610
635
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Delaware projection as of 2020-07-10
0
500
1,000
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 12,531 (69) -- Deaths: 517 (2) -- Case Mortality: 4.1% -- Daily Change: -7.6% Cases, -0.3% Deaths
27

28. District of Columbia
11,295
609
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
District of Columbia projection as of 2020-07-10
0
100
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 10,679 (37) -- Deaths: 568 (4) -- Case Mortality: 5.3% -- Daily Change: +7.2% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
28

29. Florida
483,018
5,158
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Florida projection as of 2020-07-10
0
5,000
10,000
0
200
400
600
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 232,718 (8,935) -- Deaths: 4,009 (120) -- Case Mortality: 1.7% -- Daily Change: +0.6% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
29

30. Georgia
159,713
3,318
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Georgia projection as of 2020-07-10
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 106,727 (2,837) -- Deaths: 2,930 (8) -- Case Mortality: 2.7% -- Daily Change: +2.6% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
30

31. Hawaii
1,484
23
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Hawaii projection as of 2020-07-10
0
10
20
30
40
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,130 (36) -- Deaths: 19 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.7% -- Daily Change: +8.6% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
31

32. Idaho
19,323
106
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Idaho projection as of 2020-07-10
0
200
400
0
10
20
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 9,429 (460) -- Deaths: 100 (2) -- Case Mortality: 1.1% -- Daily Change: +5.5% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
32

33. Illinois
166,209
8,057
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Illinois projection as of 2020-07-10
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 151,572 (1,018) -- Deaths: 7,329 (20) -- Case Mortality: 4.8% -- Daily Change: +5.7% Cases, +0.3% Deaths
33

34. Indiana
57,793
3,002
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Indiana projection as of 2020-07-10
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 49,575 (512) -- Deaths: 2,739 (7) -- Case Mortality: 5.5% -- Daily Change: -2.6% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
34

35. Iowa
42,244
808
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Iowa projection as of 2020-07-10
0
200
400
600
800
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 33,254 (630) -- Deaths: 741 (5) -- Case Mortality: 2.2% -- Daily Change: +2.8% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
35

36. Kansas
24,968
344
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Kansas projection as of 2020-07-10
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 17,785 (453) -- Deaths: 293 (4) -- Case Mortality: 1.6% -- Daily Change: +4.3% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
36

37. Kentucky
23,126
731
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Kentucky projection as of 2020-07-10
0
200
400
600
800
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 18,245 (326) -- Deaths: 612 (4) -- Case Mortality: 3.4% -- Daily Change: +10.6% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
37

38. Louisiana
99,540
3,662
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Louisiana projection as of 2020-07-10
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
30
60
90
120
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 71,994 (1,843) -- Deaths: 3,355 (16) -- Case Mortality: 4.7% -- Daily Change: +4.7% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
38

39. Maine
4,197
121
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Maine projection as of 2020-07-10
0
20
40
60
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,486 (26) -- Deaths: 111 (1) -- Case Mortality: 3.2% -- Daily Change: -7.1% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
39

40. Maryland
78,799
3,597
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Maryland projection as of 2020-07-10
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 71,447 (586) -- Deaths: 3,288 (13) -- Case Mortality: 4.6% -- Daily Change: +4.1% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
40

41. Massachusetts
114,643
8,823
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Massachusetts projection as of 2020-07-10
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 110,897 (295) -- Deaths: 8,268 (25) -- Case Mortality: 7.5% -- Daily Change: +4.5% Cases, -0.3% Deaths
41

42. Michigan
82,158
6,495
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Michigan projection as of 2020-07-10
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 75,063 (512) -- Deaths: 6,271 (9) -- Case Mortality: 8.4% -- Daily Change: +4.7% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
42

43. Minnesota
48,585
1,700
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Minnesota projection as of 2020-07-10
0
200
400
600
800
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 40,163 (574) -- Deaths: 1,528 (5) -- Case Mortality: 3.8% -- Daily Change: +4.4% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
43

44. Mississippi
51,017
1,534
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Mississippi projection as of 2020-07-10
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 33,591 (703) -- Deaths: 1,204 (16) -- Case Mortality: 3.6% -- Daily Change: +1.2% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
44

45. Missouri
35,865
1,209
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Missouri projection as of 2020-07-10
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 26,410 (820) -- Deaths: 1,073 (4) -- Case Mortality: 4.1% -- Daily Change: +9.3% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
45

46. Montana
2,801
29
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Montana projection as of 2020-07-10
0
25
50
75
100
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,466 (95) -- Deaths: 25 (2) -- Case Mortality: 1.7% -- Daily Change: +6.7% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
46

47. Nebraska
23,677
355
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Nebraska projection as of 2020-07-10
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 20,623 (198) -- Deaths: 284 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: +4.7% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
47

48. Nevada
45,856
653
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Nevada projection as of 2020-07-10
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 24,904 (603) -- Deaths: 571 (18) -- Case Mortality: 2.3% -- Daily Change: -2.9% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
48

49. New Hampshire
6,474
464
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Hampshire projection as of 2020-07-10
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,973 (21) -- Deaths: 387 (1) -- Case Mortality: 6.5% -- Daily Change: -2.4% Cases, -0.8% Deaths
49

50. New Jersey
179,777
19,853
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Jersey projection as of 2020-07-10
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 174,270 (231) -- Deaths: 15,448 (116) -- Case Mortality: 8.9% -- Daily Change: -6.7% Cases, -6.5% Deaths
50

51. New Mexico
18,884
611
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Mexico projection as of 2020-07-10
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 14,251 (234) -- Deaths: 533 (6) -- Case Mortality: 3.7% -- Daily Change: +3.2% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
51

52. New York
411,413
33,007
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New York projection as of 2020-07-10
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
0
250
500
750
1,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 399,513 (584) -- Deaths: 32,283 (32) -- Case Mortality: 8.1% -- Daily Change: -1.3% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
52

53. North Carolina
117,376
1,834
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
North Carolina projection as of 2020-07-10
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
30
60
90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 79,656 (1,969) -- Deaths: 1,477 (15) -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: +1.4% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
53

54. North Dakota
4,849
92
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
North Dakota projection as of 2020-07-10
0
30
60
90
0.0
2.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 4,071 (100) -- Deaths: 85 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: +9.3% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
54

55. Ohio
82,560
3,409
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Ohio projection as of 2020-07-10
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 61,331 (1,150) -- Deaths: 3,006 (15) -- Case Mortality: 4.9% -- Daily Change: +2.1% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
55

56. Oklahoma
28,320
464
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Oklahoma projection as of 2020-07-10
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 18,497 (603) -- Deaths: 410 (3) -- Case Mortality: 2.2% -- Daily Change: +7.4% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
56

57. Oregon
17,422
274
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Oregon projection as of 2020-07-10
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 11,188 (371) -- Deaths: 230 (6) -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: -0.0% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
57

58. Pennsylvania
109,378
7,391
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Pennsylvania projection as of 2020-07-10
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 97,542 (817) -- Deaths: 6,848 (36) -- Case Mortality: 7.0% -- Daily Change: +3.6% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
58

59. Rhode Island
18,051
1,089
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Rhode Island projection as of 2020-07-10
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 17,243 (39) -- Deaths: 974 (3) -- Case Mortality: 5.6% -- Daily Change: +6.7% Cases, -0.6% Deaths
59

60. South Carolina
92,934
1,280
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Carolina projection as of 2020-07-10
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
25
50
75
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 50,691 (1,782) -- Deaths: 905 (21) -- Case Mortality: 1.8% -- Daily Change: -1.0% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
60

61. South Dakota
8,494
132
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Dakota projection as of 2020-07-10
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,336 (94) -- Deaths: 101 (3) -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: +5.6% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
61

62. Tennessee
84,641
958
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Tennessee projection as of 2020-07-10
0
1,000
2,000
0
50
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 57,591 (1,605) -- Deaths: 710 (25) -- Case Mortality: 1.2% -- Daily Change: +3.5% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
62

63. Texas
433,037
3,973
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Texas projection as of 2020-07-10
0
5,000
10,000
0
200
400
600
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 236,541 (11,612) -- Deaths: 3,006 (131) -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: +7.0% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
63

64. Utah
41,277
262
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Utah projection as of 2020-07-10
0
200
400
600
800
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 27,356 (601) -- Deaths: 205 (4) -- Case Mortality: 0.7% -- Daily Change: +2.6% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
64

65. Vermont
1,388
56
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Vermont projection as of 2020-07-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,272 (16) -- Deaths: 56 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.4% -- Daily Change: +2.8% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
65

66. Virginia
79,413
2,393
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Virginia projection as of 2020-07-10
0
400
800
1,200
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 67,988 (613) -- Deaths: 1,937 (32) -- Case Mortality: 2.8% -- Daily Change: +1.4% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
66

67. Washington
51,560
1,569
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Washington projection as of 2020-07-10
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 38,581 (640) -- Deaths: 1,409 (15) -- Case Mortality: 3.7% -- Daily Change: -0.6% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
67

68. West Virginia
5,087
104
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
West Virginia projection as of 2020-07-10
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,826 (119) -- Deaths: 95 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.5% -- Daily Change: +11.6% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
68

69. Wisconsin
45,546
907
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Wisconsin projection as of 2020-07-10
0
200
400
600
800
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 33,908 (754) -- Deaths: 809 (2) -- Case Mortality: 2.4% -- Daily Change: +2.6% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
69

70. Wyoming
2,566
21
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Wyoming projection as of 2020-07-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,769 (29) -- Deaths: 21 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.2% -- Daily Change: +0.1% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
70

71. US Counties
71

72. Change in New Cases per Day
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
NA
Trends by county as of 2020-07-10
NA = Inadequate data
72

73. Percent Change by Partisan Lean
-10
-5
0
5
10
0 25 50 75 100
Percent Republican
Percentchangeinnewcasesperday
25
50
75
Republican
Counties by 2016 presidential election results
Dark green line is a Friedman's supersmoother
73

74. Percent Change by Population
-10
-5
0
5
10
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
Population
Percentchangeinnewcasesperday
25
50
75
Republican
Counties by Population
Dark green line is a Friedman's 'super smoother'
74

75. Partisan Lean vs Population and Direction
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
0 25 50 75 100
Percent Republican
Population
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
Partisan Lean vs Population and Direction
Dark green line is a Friedman's 'super smoother'
75

76. Cases as a Percent of Population
0.001%
0.01%
0.1%
1%
10%
20%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Totalcases
Total Cases as a Percent of County Population
Slanted lines are counties with small integer numbers of cases, green line: Friedman's 'super smoother'
76

77. Deaths as a Percent of Population
0.0001%
0.001%
0.01%
0.1%
1%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Totaldeaths
Total Deaths as a Percent of County Population
Slanted lines are counties with small integer numbers of cases, green line: Friedman's 'super smoother'
77

78. Case Mortality vs. Population
0.1%
1%
10%
100%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Casemortality
Case Mortality vs. County Population
78

79. New York City
223,940
23,709
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
New York City projection as of 2020-07-10
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0
200
400
600
800
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 218,052 (275) -- Deaths: 23,247 (23) -- Case Mortality: 10.7% -- Daily Change: -2.4% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
79

80. Westchester County, NY
35,856
1,455
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Westchester County, NY projection as of 2020-07-10
0
500
1,000
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 35,183 (29) -- Deaths: 1,432 (1) -- Case Mortality: 4.1% -- Daily Change: -1.6% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
80

81. Bergen County, NJ
20,553
2,621
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Bergen County, NJ projection as of 2020-07-10
0
2,000
4,000
0
100
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 19,771 (39) -- Deaths: 2,020 (10) -- Case Mortality: 10.2% -- Daily Change: -0.1% Cases, -6.8% Deaths
81

82. Hudson County, NJ
19,392
1,762
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Hudson County, NJ projection as of 2020-07-10
0
1,000
2,000
0
50
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 19,333 (0) -- Deaths: 1,477 (15) -- Case Mortality: 7.6% -- Daily Change: +0.0% Cases, -176.2% Deaths
82

83. King County (Seattle)
14,156
662
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
King County (Seattle) projection as of 2020-07-10
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 11,419 (135) -- Deaths: 632 (4) -- Case Mortality: 5.5% -- Daily Change: -4.6% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
83

84. Clark County, Washington
1,479
31
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Clark County, Washington projection as of 2020-07-10
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,004 (14) -- Deaths: 31 (1) -- Case Mortality: 3.1% -- Daily Change: -1.9% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
84

85. Los Angeles
180,631
4,412
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Los Angeles projection as of 2020-07-10
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
0
100
200
300
400
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 124,992 (1,736) -- Deaths: 3,690 (47) -- Case Mortality: 3.0% -- Daily Change: +0.4% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
85

86. Bay Area
31,817
455
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Bay Area projection as of 2020-07-10
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 20,807 (347) -- Deaths: 402 (5) -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: +1.1% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
86

87. San Francisco
5,437
55
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Francisco projection as of 2020-07-10
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 4,145 (74) -- Deaths: 50 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.2% -- Daily Change: +5.6% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
87

88. Santa Clara and San Mateo
14,101
302
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Santa Clara and San Mateo projection as of 2020-07-10
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 9,465 (170) -- Deaths: 277 (1) -- Case Mortality: 2.9% -- Daily Change: -5.1% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
88

89. Alameda County
10,658
185
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Alameda County projection as of 2020-07-10
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,407 (162) -- Deaths: 146 (4) -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: +1.1% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
89

90. San Luis Obispo, California
1,729
10
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Luis Obispo, California projection as of 2020-07-10
0
20
40
60
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 877 (32) -- Deaths: 4 (1) -- Case Mortality: 0.5% -- Daily Change: +5.9% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
90

91. Fresno, California
14,619
107
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Fresno, California projection as of 2020-07-10
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,627 (346) -- Deaths: 87 (3) -- Case Mortality: 1.1% -- Daily Change: +10.5% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
91

92. Santa Barbara County
5,783
42
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Santa Barbara County projection as of 2020-07-10
0
200
400
0
10
20
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,868 (60) -- Deaths: 30 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.8% -- Daily Change: +9.8% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
92

93. Merced County
3,857
17
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Merced County projection as of 2020-07-10
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,793 (170) -- Deaths: 12 (1) -- Case Mortality: 0.7% -- Daily Change: +12.4% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
93

94. Yolo County
1,646
40
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Yolo County projection as of 2020-07-10
0
20
40
60
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 802 (42) -- Deaths: 40 (0) -- Case Mortality: 5.0% -- Daily Change: +5.4% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
94

95. San Diego County
28,585
512
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Diego County projection as of 2020-07-10
0
300
600
900
0
20
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 18,402 (560) -- Deaths: 415 (9) -- Case Mortality: 2.3% -- Daily Change: -0.8% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
95

96. Riverside County
34,527
665
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Riverside County projection as of 2020-07-10
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 23,334 (1,377) -- Deaths: 533 (18) -- Case Mortality: 2.3% -- Daily Change: +11.2% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
96

97. Imperial County
9,574
313
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Imperial County projection as of 2020-07-10
0
100
200
300
400
500
0
10
20
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,654 (190) -- Deaths: 127 (2) -- Case Mortality: 1.7% -- Daily Change: +0.9% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
97

98. Multnomah County (Portland)
3,894
74
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Multnomah County (Portland) projection as of 2020-07-10
0
25
50
75
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,694 (86) -- Deaths: 72 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.7% -- Daily Change: +1.9% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
98

99. Utah County
7,609
32
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Utah County projection as of 2020-07-10
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 4,988 (94) -- Deaths: 27 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.5% -- Daily Change: +2.3% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
99

100. Summit County, Utah
634
1
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Summit County, Utah projection as of 2020-07-10
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 553 (10) -- Deaths: 1 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.2% -- Daily Change: +5.3% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
100

101. De Soto Parish, Louisiana
488
22
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
De Soto Parish, Louisiana projection as of 2020-07-10
0
10
20
30
40
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 408 (14) -- Deaths: 20 (1) -- Case Mortality: 4.9% -- Daily Change: +13.7% Cases, +0.3% Deaths
101

102. St. Francois County, Missouri
169
2
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Francois County, Missouri projection as of 2020-07-10
0
10
20
30
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 162 (4) -- Deaths: 2 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.2% -- Daily Change: +6.1% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
102

103. Dallas, Texas
48,596
628
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Dallas, Texas projection as of 2020-07-10
0
500
1,000
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 30,361 (1,201) -- Deaths: 436 (10) -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: +4.9% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
103

104. Collin Texas
6,867
69
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Collin Texas projection as of 2020-07-10
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,948 (123) -- Deaths: 53 (3) -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: +3.6% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
104

105. Harris County (Houston)
53,327
582
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Harris County (Houston) projection as of 2020-07-10
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
30
60
90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 40,918 (906) -- Deaths: 423 (12) -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: -0.8% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
105

106. Tulsa County, Oklahoma
6,482
83
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tulsa County, Oklahoma projection as of 2020-07-10
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 4,693 (122) -- Deaths: 72 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: +7.3% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
106

107. McLean County, Illinois
335
14
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
McLean County, Illinois projection as of 2020-07-10
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 301 (9) -- Deaths: 15 (1) -- Case Mortality: 5.0% -- Daily Change: +11.2% Cases, +1.0% Deaths
107

108. Cook County, Illinois
101,160
5,057
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Cook County, Illinois projection as of 2020-07-10
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 94,005 (509) -- Deaths: 4,676 (12) -- Case Mortality: 5.0% -- Daily Change: +1.6% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
108

109. Suffolk County (Boston)
20,720
1,069
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Suffolk County (Boston) projection as of 2020-07-10
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 20,172 (52) -- Deaths: 1,013 (1) -- Case Mortality: 5.0% -- Daily Change: +9.8% Cases, -0.7% Deaths
109

110. Polk County, Iowa
8,652
205
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Polk County, Iowa projection as of 2020-07-10
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,990 (163) -- Deaths: 182 (1) -- Case Mortality: 2.6% -- Daily Change: +4.5% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
110

111. Johnson County, Iowa
2,421
9
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Johnson County, Iowa projection as of 2020-07-10
0
25
50
75
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,384 (21) -- Deaths: 9 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.7% -- Daily Change: -7.5% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
111

112. Erie County, New York
8,264
670
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Erie County, New York projection as of 2020-07-10
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,624 (28) -- Deaths: 639 (0) -- Case Mortality: 8.4% -- Daily Change: +1.7% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
112

113. Oakland County, Michigan
13,210
1,122
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Oakland County, Michigan projection as of 2020-07-10
0
200
400
0
10
20
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 12,488 (80) -- Deaths: 1,097 (1) -- Case Mortality: 8.8% -- Daily Change: +9.1% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
113

114. St. Louis (City)
3,184
164
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Louis (City) projection as of 2020-07-10
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,811 (119) -- Deaths: 158 (0) -- Case Mortality: 5.6% -- Daily Change: +17.0% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
114

115. St. Louis (County)
9,345
673
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Louis (County) projection as of 2020-07-10
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,672 (190) -- Deaths: 609 (0) -- Case Mortality: 7.9% -- Daily Change: +15.0% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
115

116. Baltimore (City)
9,393
415
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Baltimore (City) projection as of 2020-07-10
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 8,155 (84) -- Deaths: 358 (3) -- Case Mortality: 4.4% -- Daily Change: +0.6% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
116

117. Durham County
5,881
78
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Durham County projection as of 2020-07-10
0
25
50
75
100
125
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 4,277 (69) -- Deaths: 67 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.6% -- Daily Change: -2.7% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
117

118. Cuyahoga County (Cleveland)
12,117
452
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) projection as of 2020-07-10
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 8,518 (241) -- Deaths: 383 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.5% -- Daily Change: +4.8% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
118

119. Wayne County (Detroit)
25,094
2,818
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Wayne County (Detroit) projection as of 2020-07-10
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 23,701 (104) -- Deaths: 2,744 (1) -- Case Mortality: 11.6% -- Daily Change: +8.0% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
119

120. Miami-Dade
96,404
1,414
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Miami-Dade projection as of 2020-07-10
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 55,961 (1,987) -- Deaths: 1,092 (24) -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: +3.1% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
120

121. Maricopa County
138,698
1,674
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Maricopa County projection as of 2020-07-10
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 73,165 (3,037) -- Deaths: 1,012 (53) -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: +0.7% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
121

122. Denver County
8,683
414
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Denver County projection as of 2020-07-10
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,651 (88) -- Deaths: 387 (0) -- Case Mortality: 5.1% -- Daily Change: +8.7% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
122

123. Arapahoe County
6,064
356
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Arapahoe County projection as of 2020-07-10
0
100
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,510 (51) -- Deaths: 349 (2) -- Case Mortality: 6.3% -- Daily Change: +7.4% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
123

124. Montrose County
227
12
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Montrose County projection as of 2020-07-10
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 214 (1) -- Deaths: 12 (0) -- Case Mortality: 5.6% -- Daily Change: +10.6% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
124

125. International
125

126. Italy
246,266
35,308
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Italy projection as of 2020-07-10
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0
250
500
750
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 242,363 (214) -- Deaths: 34,926 (12) -- Case Mortality: 14.4% -- Daily Change: +0.4% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
126

127. Spain
259,211
28,752
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Spain projection as of 2020-07-10
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0
250
500
750
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 253,056 (543) -- Deaths: 28,752 (0) -- Case Mortality: 11.4% -- Daily Change: +7.1% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
127

128. Portugal
52,183
1,777
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Portugal projection as of 2020-07-10
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 45,277 (418) -- Deaths: 1,644 (13) -- Case Mortality: 3.6% -- Daily Change: +3.0% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
128

129. France
216,684
30,371
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
France projection as of 2020-07-10
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
0
250
500
750
1,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 207,356 (1,284) -- Deaths: 29,982 (46) -- Case Mortality: 14.5% -- Daily Change: +4.3% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
129

130. Germany
207,368
9,252
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Germany projection as of 2020-07-10
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
0
100
200
300
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 199,001 (302) -- Deaths: 9,057 (11) -- Case Mortality: 4.6% -- Daily Change: -3.3% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
130

131. Switzerland
33,792
1,981
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Switzerland projection as of 2020-07-10
0
500
1,000
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 32,586 (88) -- Deaths: 1,966 (0) -- Case Mortality: 6.0% -- Daily Change: -0.5% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
131

132. Austria
19,780
733
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Austria projection as of 2020-07-10
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 18,615 (102) -- Deaths: 706 (0) -- Case Mortality: 3.8% -- Daily Change: +0.0% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
132

133. Sweden
96,401
6,023
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Sweden projection as of 2020-07-10
0
1,000
2,000
0
50
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 74,333 (475) -- Deaths: 5,500 (18) -- Case Mortality: 7.4% -- Daily Change: -7.3% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
133

134. Netherlands
52,263
6,210
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Netherlands projection as of 2020-07-10
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 51,013 (54) -- Deaths: 6,156 (2) -- Case Mortality: 12.1% -- Daily Change: -0.6% Cases, +0.2% Deaths
134

135. United Kingdom
298,815
47,300
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
United Kingdom projection as of 2020-07-10
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
0
250
500
750
1,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 289,154 (643) -- Deaths: 44,687 (85) -- Case Mortality: 15.5% -- Daily Change: +8.9% Cases, -0.6% Deaths
135

136. Iceland
1,933
10
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Iceland projection as of 2020-07-10
0
20
40
60
80
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,882 (2) -- Deaths: 10 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.5% -- Daily Change: +4.2% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
136

137. Canada
114,579
9,245
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Canada projection as of 2020-07-10
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 108,656 (322) -- Deaths: 8,797 (11) -- Case Mortality: 8.1% -- Daily Change: +0.1% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
137

138. Australia
10,844
109
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Australia projection as of 2020-07-10
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 9,374 (318) -- Deaths: 106 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.1% -- Daily Change: +10.8% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
138

139. New Zealand
1,569
22
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Zealand projection as of 2020-07-10
0
20
40
60
80
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,542 (2) -- Deaths: 22 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: +12.4% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
139

140. China
85,354
4,644
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
China projection as of 2020-07-10
0
2,000
4,000
0
100
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 84,992 (42) -- Deaths: 4,641 (0) -- Case Mortality: 5.5% -- Daily Change: +12.8% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
140

141. South Korea
14,261
293
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Korea projection as of 2020-07-10
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 13,338 (45) -- Deaths: 288 (1) -- Case Mortality: 2.2% -- Daily Change: -1.3% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
141

142. Singapore
49,323
26
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Singapore projection as of 2020-07-10
0
300
600
900
0
20
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 45,423 (125) -- Deaths: 26 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.1% -- Daily Change: -4.5% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
142

143. Japan
23,102
1,017
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Japan projection as of 2020-07-10
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 20,617 (356) -- Deaths: 982 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.8% -- Daily Change: +6.2% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
143

144. South Africa
520,722
8,041
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Africa projection as of 2020-07-10
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0
200
400
600
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 238,339 (13,674) -- Deaths: 3,720 (118) -- Case Mortality: 1.6% -- Daily Change: +4.7% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
144

145. Israel
52,713
395
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Israel projection as of 2020-07-10
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
80
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 34,825 (1,268) -- Deaths: 348 (4) -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: +6.7% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
145

146. Turkey
236,087
5,763
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Turkey projection as of 2020-07-10
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 209,962 (1,024) -- Deaths: 5,300 (18) -- Case Mortality: 2.5% -- Daily Change: -2.5% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
146

147. Iran
306,542
16,404
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Iran projection as of 2020-07-10
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 250,458 (2,079) -- Deaths: 12,305 (221) -- Case Mortality: 4.9% -- Daily Change: -0.8% Cases, +0.2% Deaths
147

148. Egypt
116,466
7,137
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Egypt projection as of 2020-07-10
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
25
50
75
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 79,254 (950) -- Deaths: 3,617 (53) -- Case Mortality: 4.6% -- Daily Change: -5.6% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
148

149. Bahrain
40,628
210
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Bahrain projection as of 2020-07-10
0
200
400
600
800
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 31,528 (597) -- Deaths: 103 (5) -- Case Mortality: 0.3% -- Daily Change: +1.6% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
149

150. Brazil
2,700,695
101,681
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Brazil projection as of 2020-07-10
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,755,779 (42,619) -- Deaths: 69,184 (1,220) -- Case Mortality: 3.9% -- Daily Change: +2.1% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
150

151. Russia
857,554
15,435
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Russia projection as of 2020-07-10
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
0
200
400
600
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 706,240 (6,491) -- Deaths: 10,826 (176) -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: -0.5% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
151

152. India
1,267,553
38,353
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
India projection as of 2020-07-10
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 793,802 (26,506) -- Deaths: 21,604 (475) -- Case Mortality: 2.7% -- Daily Change: +2.7% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
152

153. Pakistan
333,342
7,905
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Pakistan projection as of 2020-07-10
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
0
100
200
300
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 243,599 (2,751) -- Deaths: 5,058 (75) -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: -3.6% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
153

154. Mexico
420,064
57,676
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Mexico projection as of 2020-07-10
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
0
250
500
750
1,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 282,283 (7,280) -- Deaths: 33,526 (730) -- Case Mortality: 11.9% -- Daily Change: +3.1% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
154

155. Case Mortality vs. Testing
LUX
BHR
MLT
DNK
ISL
LTU
RUS
QAT
PRT
ISRAUS
BLR
USA
MDV
GBR
KWT
IRL
ITA
BEL
NZL
LVA
KAZ
EST
CAN
SGP
ESP
CHE
DEU
AUT
SRBCHL
NOR
SWE
SAU
CZE
SVN
FIN
TUR
POL
ROU
SVK
NLD
PAN
GRC
ZAF
HUN
SLV
KOR
MYS
BGR
IRN
MAR
HRV
URY
COL
UKR
CUB
RWA
PRYGHA
ARGTHA
PER
CRI
IND
BOL
PHL
ECU
BRA
PAK
TUN
FJI
BGD
SEN
MEX
NPL
UGA
JPN
TGOKEN
TWN
VNM
ZWE
ETH
IDN
MMR
NGA
0
5
10
15
0 10 20 30 40
% Tested
%CaseMortality
Case Mortality vs. Testing as of 2020-07-10
155