This document contains 24 charts showing COVID-19 case and death trends over time for various US counties, with data current as of July 28, 2020. The charts track metrics like new daily cases, total cases as a percentage of population, case mortality rates, and modeled projections of future case and death trends. The largest and hardest hit counties, like New York City, Los Angeles, and King County (Seattle), are featured alongside regional hotspots and counties across California.

1. US Counties
US Counties: 1

2. Change in New Cases per Day
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
NA
Trends by county as of 2020-07-28
NA = Inadequate data
2020-07-28 US Counties: 2

3. Percent Change by Partisan Lean
-10
-5
0
5
10
0 25 50 75 100
Percent Republican
Percentchangeinnewcasesperday
25
50
75
Republican
Counties by 2016 presidential election results
Dark green line is a Friedman's supersmoother
2020-07-28 US Counties: 3

4. Percent Change by Population
-10
-5
0
5
10
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
Population
Percentchangeinnewcasesperday
25
50
75
Republican
Counties by Population
Dark green line is a Friedman's 'super smoother'
2020-07-28 US Counties: 4

5. Partisan Lean vs Population and Direction
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
0 25 50 75 100
Percent Republican
Population
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
Partisan Lean vs Population and Direction
Dark green line is a Friedman's 'super smoother'
2020-07-28 US Counties: 5

6. Cases as a Percent of Population
0.001%
0.01%
0.1%
1%
10%
20%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Totalcases
Total Cases as a Percent of County Population
Slanted lines are counties with small integer numbers of cases, green line: Friedman's 'super smoother'
2020-07-28 US Counties: 6

7. Deaths as a Percent of Population
0.0001%
0.001%
0.01%
0.1%
1%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Totaldeaths
Total Deaths as a Percent of County Population
Slanted lines are counties with small integer numbers of cases, green line: Friedman's 'super smoother'
2020-07-28 US Counties: 7

8. Case Mortality vs. Population
0.1%
1%
10%
100%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Casemortality
Case Mortality vs. County Population
2020-07-28 US Counties: 8

9. New York City
233,334
24,017
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
New York City projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0
200
400
600
800
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 224,051 (290) -- Deaths: 23,500 (15) -- Case Mortality: 10.5% -- Daily Change: -1.0% Cases, -2.3% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 9

10. Westchester County, NY
36,726
1,469
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Westchester County, NY projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 35,799 (22) -- Deaths: 1,443 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.0% -- Daily Change: +0.0% Cases, -3.0% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 10

11. Bergen County, NJ
20,952
2,095
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Bergen County, NJ projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
300
600
900
1,200
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 20,280 (54) -- Deaths: 2,045 (1) -- Case Mortality: 10.1% -- Daily Change: +6.4% Cases, +4.6% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 11

12. Hudson County, NJ
19,374
1,574
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Hudson County, NJ projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
300
600
900
1,200
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 19,387 (24) -- Deaths: 1,502 (1) -- Case Mortality: 7.7% -- Daily Change: +31.0% Cases, -14.0% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 12

13. King County (Seattle)
21,019
669
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
King County (Seattle) projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 14,579 (162) -- Deaths: 645 (1) -- Case Mortality: 4.4% -- Daily Change: -0.0% Cases, +10.5% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 13

14. Clark County, Washington
2,142
40
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Clark County, Washington projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
20
40
60
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,333 (5) -- Deaths: 34 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.6% -- Daily Change: -4.3% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 14

15. Los Angeles
300,074
6,280
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Los Angeles projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 176,028 (2,011) -- Deaths: 4,375 (15) -- Case Mortality: 2.5% -- Daily Change: -3.0% Cases, -1.8% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 15

16. Bay Area
56,992
708
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Bay Area projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 31,492 (408) -- Deaths: 482 (3) -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: -2.2% Cases, -1.0% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 16

17. San Francisco
10,349
70
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Francisco projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,022 (90) -- Deaths: 56 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.9% -- Daily Change: +1.2% Cases, +4.7% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 17

18. Santa Clara and San Mateo
25,515
359
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Santa Clara and San Mateo projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 14,339 (276) -- Deaths: 301 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: -0.2% Cases, -8.8% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 18

19. Alameda County
18,072
282
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Alameda County projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 10,438 (108) -- Deaths: 178 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.7% -- Daily Change: -3.7% Cases, -0.5% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 19

20. San Luis Obispo, California
3,227
68
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Luis Obispo, California projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,644 (144) -- Deaths: 9 (1) -- Case Mortality: 0.5% -- Daily Change: +2.1% Cases, +3.6% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 20

21. Fresno, California
24,946
203
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Fresno, California projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 12,564 (0) -- Deaths: 112 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.9% -- Daily Change: -1.8% Cases, -0.3% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 21

22. Santa Barbara County
10,259
37
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Santa Barbara County projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
400
500
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,576 (0) -- Deaths: 32 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.6% -- Daily Change: -6.2% Cases, -22.8% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 22

23. Merced County
7,532
195
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Merced County projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,245 (0) -- Deaths: 27 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.8% -- Daily Change: -3.4% Cases, +1.9% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 23

24. Yolo County
2,087
40
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Yolo County projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
20
40
60
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,424 (30) -- Deaths: 40 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.8% -- Daily Change: -0.9% Cases, +39.6% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 24

25. San Diego County
48,484
925
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Diego County projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 27,507 (806) -- Deaths: 533 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: -0.0% Cases, -1.1% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 25

26. Riverside County
61,269
981
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Riverside County projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 33,467 (0) -- Deaths: 637 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: -5.1% Cases, -2.7% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 26

27. Imperial County
11,811
383
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Imperial County projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 9,162 (95) -- Deaths: 181 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: -3.1% Cases, -2.0% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 27

28. Multnomah County (Portland)
6,463
101
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Multnomah County (Portland) projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
40
80
120
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 4,039 (118) -- Deaths: 82 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: -0.5% Cases, +10.3% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 28

29. Utah County
12,625
46
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Utah County projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,296 (102) -- Deaths: 31 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.4% -- Daily Change: +0.3% Cases, -15.0% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 29

30. Summit County, Utah
919
1
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Summit County, Utah projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 673 (4) -- Deaths: 1 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.1% -- Daily Change: -3.1% Cases, NaN% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 30

31. De Soto Parish, Louisiana
954
35
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
De Soto Parish, Louisiana projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 582 (11) -- Deaths: 24 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.1% -- Daily Change: +3.1% Cases, +3.4% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 31

32. St. Francois County, Missouri
409
2
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Francois County, Missouri projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 238 (4) -- Deaths: 2 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.8% -- Daily Change: +5.9% Cases, NaN% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 32

33. Dallas, Texas
60,141
1,240
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Dallas, Texas projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
30
60
90
120
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 47,239 (426) -- Deaths: 607 (2) -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: -2.4% Cases, +0.4% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 33

34. Collin Texas
10,842
155
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Collin Texas projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,789 (27) -- Deaths: 74 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: -9.5% Cases, +0.7% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 34

35. Harris County (Houston)
97,022
1,532
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Harris County (Houston) projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
25
50
75
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 66,190 (846) -- Deaths: 655 (10) -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: -2.5% Cases, +2.5% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 35

36. Tulsa County, Oklahoma
14,448
146
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tulsa County, Oklahoma projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,912 (355) -- Deaths: 90 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.1% -- Daily Change: +4.8% Cases, -6.2% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 36

37. McLean County, Illinois
856
17
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
McLean County, Illinois projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 471 (10) -- Deaths: 15 (0) -- Case Mortality: 3.2% -- Daily Change: +0.5% Cases, -10.4% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 37

38. Cook County, Illinois
117,310
5,180
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Cook County, Illinois projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 103,008 (425) -- Deaths: 4,842 (12) -- Case Mortality: 4.7% -- Daily Change: +1.6% Cases, -0.3% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 38

39. Suffolk County (Boston)
22,062
1,125
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Suffolk County (Boston) projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 20,914 (18) -- Deaths: 1,048 (0) -- Case Mortality: 5.0% -- Daily Change: +0.0% Cases, -2.3% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 39

40. Polk County, Iowa
13,999
215
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Polk County, Iowa projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 9,109 (29) -- Deaths: 193 (2) -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: -4.6% Cases, -2.7% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 40

41. Johnson County, Iowa
2,602
15
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Johnson County, Iowa projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
20
40
0.0
1.0
2.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,766 (15) -- Deaths: 12 (2) -- Case Mortality: 0.7% -- Daily Change: -4.1% Cases, +17.3% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 41

42. Erie County, New York
9,537
720
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Erie County, New York projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 8,327 (26) -- Deaths: 663 (0) -- Case Mortality: 8.0% -- Daily Change: -2.9% Cases, -7.1% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 42

43. Oakland County, Michigan
16,849
1,187
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Oakland County, Michigan projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
0
10
20
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 14,111 (76) -- Deaths: 1,127 (0) -- Case Mortality: 8.0% -- Daily Change: +0.8% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 43

44. St. Louis (City)
6,758
179
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Louis (City) projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 4,042 (141) -- Deaths: 165 (1) -- Case Mortality: 4.1% -- Daily Change: +2.9% Cases, +0.7% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 44

45. St. Louis (County)
19,563
727
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Louis (County) projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
0
10
20
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 11,838 (303) -- Deaths: 653 (8) -- Case Mortality: 5.5% -- Daily Change: +7.7% Cases, +7.8% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 45

46. Baltimore (City)
15,138
505
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Baltimore (City) projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 10,579 (226) -- Deaths: 401 (1) -- Case Mortality: 3.8% -- Daily Change: +3.3% Cases, +0.6% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 46

47. Durham County
8,292
98
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Durham County projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
30
60
90
0.0
2.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,535 (48) -- Deaths: 76 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: -2.9% Cases, -1.3% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 47

48. Cuyahoga County (Cleveland)
19,849
627
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 11,788 (91) -- Deaths: 454 (4) -- Case Mortality: 3.9% -- Daily Change: -3.8% Cases, +3.1% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 48

49. Wayne County (Detroit)
30,491
2,892
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Wayne County (Detroit) projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 26,161 (77) -- Deaths: 2,789 (0) -- Case Mortality: 10.7% -- Daily Change: -2.2% Cases, -8.9% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 49

50. Miami-Dade
187,703
2,420
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Miami-Dade projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 107,315 (2,560) -- Deaths: 1,404 (16) -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: +0.4% Cases, -4.2% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 50

51. Maricopa County
194,085
6,434
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Maricopa County projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 109,988 (1,311) -- Deaths: 1,808 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.6% -- Daily Change: -2.3% Cases, -0.5% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 51

52. Denver County
12,051
441
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Denver County projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 9,256 (51) -- Deaths: 405 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.4% -- Daily Change: +3.4% Cases, +0.2% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 52

53. Arapahoe County
8,442
384
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Arapahoe County projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
250
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,570 (29) -- Deaths: 360 (0) -- Case Mortality: 5.5% -- Daily Change: +1.8% Cases, +7.1% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 53

54. Montrose County
344
15
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Montrose County projection as of 2020-07-28
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 262 (0) -- Deaths: 13 (0) -- Case Mortality: 5.0% -- Daily Change: +5.4% Cases, +11.5% Deaths
2020-07-28 US Counties: 54