This document provides data on COVID-19 cases and trends in various US counties as of August 12, 2020. It includes charts showing changes in new cases, case rates by population size and partisan lean, mortality rates, and projections of future cases and deaths for several heavily impacted counties in states like New York, New Jersey, Washington, and California.

1. US Counties
US Counties: 1

2. Change in New Cases per Day
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
NA
Trends by county as of 2020-08-12
NA = Inadequate data
2020-08-12 US Counties: 2

3. Percent Change by Partisan Lean
-10
-5
0
5
10
0 25 50 75 100
Percent Republican
Percentchangeinnewcasesperday
25
50
75
Republican
Counties by 2016 presidential election results
Dark green line is a Friedman's supersmoother
2020-08-12 US Counties: 3

4. Percent Change by Population
-10
-5
0
5
10
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
Population
Percentchangeinnewcasesperday
25
50
75
Republican
Counties by Population
Dark green line is a Friedman's 'super smoother'
2020-08-12 US Counties: 4

5. Partisan Lean vs Population and Direction
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
0 25 50 75 100
Percent Republican
Population
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
Partisan Lean vs Population and Direction
Dark green line is a Friedman's 'super smoother'
2020-08-12 US Counties: 5

6. Cases as a Percent of Population
0.001%
0.01%
0.1%
1%
10%
20%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Totalcases
Total Cases as a Percent of County Population
Slanted lines are counties with small integer numbers of cases, green line: Friedman's 'super smoother'
2020-08-12 US Counties: 6

7. Deaths as a Percent of Population
0.0001%
0.001%
0.01%
0.1%
1%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Totaldeaths
Total Deaths as a Percent of County Population
Slanted lines are counties with small integer numbers of cases, green line: Friedman's 'super smoother'
2020-08-12 US Counties: 7

8. Case Mortality vs. Population
0.1%
1%
10%
100%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Casemortality
Case Mortality vs. County Population
2020-08-12 US Counties: 8

9. New York City
233,167
23,747
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
New York City projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0
200
400
600
800
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 228,343 (274) -- Deaths: 23,592 (6) -- Case Mortality: 10.3% -- Daily Change: -0.3% Cases, -3.5% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 9

10. Westchester County, NY
36,780
1,453
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Westchester County, NY projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 36,272 (39) -- Deaths: 1,447 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.0% -- Daily Change: +0.1% Cases, -9.5% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 10

11. Bergen County, NJ
21,514
2,056
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Bergen County, NJ projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
300
600
900
1,200
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 20,864 (39) -- Deaths: 2,046 (0) -- Case Mortality: 9.8% -- Daily Change: -0.7% Cases, -24.8% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 11

12. Hudson County, NJ
20,023
1,512
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Hudson County, NJ projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
300
600
900
1,200
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 19,717 (34) -- Deaths: 1,505 (0) -- Case Mortality: 7.6% -- Daily Change: +1.9% Cases, -26.9% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 12

13. King County (Seattle)
19,958
723
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
King County (Seattle) projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 16,808 (101) -- Deaths: 686 (10) -- Case Mortality: 4.1% -- Daily Change: -0.9% Cases, +8.6% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 13

14. Clark County, Washington
2,584
63
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Clark County, Washington projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
30
60
90
0.0
2.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,823 (36) -- Deaths: 43 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.4% -- Daily Change: -3.5% Cases, -15.2% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 14

15. Los Angeles
263,324
6,098
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Los Angeles projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 210,874 (331) -- Deaths: 4,999 (1) -- Case Mortality: 2.4% -- Daily Change: -4.2% Cases, -3.9% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 15

16. Bay Area
54,972
731
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Bay Area projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 41,645 (588) -- Deaths: 579 (7) -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: +3.1% Cases, +0.2% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 16

17. San Francisco
10,454
85
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Francisco projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,692 (69) -- Deaths: 67 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.9% -- Daily Change: -3.4% Cases, +1.1% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 17

18. Santa Clara and San Mateo
25,312
360
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Santa Clara and San Mateo projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 19,393 (381) -- Deaths: 329 (4) -- Case Mortality: 1.7% -- Daily Change: +6.5% Cases, +6.0% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 18

19. Alameda County
18,094
260
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Alameda County projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
600
800
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 13,631 (0) -- Deaths: 209 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: +2.1% Cases, +1.8% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 19

20. San Luis Obispo, California
3,217
50
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Luis Obispo, California projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,278 (24) -- Deaths: 17 (1) -- Case Mortality: 0.7% -- Daily Change: +4.6% Cases, -12.6% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 20

21. Fresno, California
25,789
310
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Fresno, California projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
1,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 17,846 (0) -- Deaths: 171 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: -1.1% Cases, -0.9% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 21

22. Santa Barbara County
8,658
236
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Santa Barbara County projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,996 (292) -- Deaths: 72 (3) -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: +1.8% Cases, -7.6% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 22

23. Merced County
8,702
242
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Merced County projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,736 (0) -- Deaths: 70 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.2% -- Daily Change: +4.7% Cases, -1.0% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 23

24. Yolo County
2,423
48
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Yolo County projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
25
50
75
100
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,834 (0) -- Deaths: 44 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.4% -- Daily Change: +6.0% Cases, +3.7% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 24

25. San Diego County
41,354
705
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Diego County projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 32,975 (0) -- Deaths: 594 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.8% -- Daily Change: -0.4% Cases, -3.9% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 25

26. Riverside County
52,320
1,105
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Riverside County projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 41,983 (0) -- Deaths: 820 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: -0.0% Cases, +2.3% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 26

27. Imperial County
10,649
402
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Imperial County projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
250
0.0
5.0
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 9,867 (174) -- Deaths: 244 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.5% -- Daily Change: +4.1% Cases, -8.1% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 27

28. Multnomah County (Portland)
6,510
127
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Multnomah County (Portland) projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
40
80
120
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,014 (54) -- Deaths: 98 (2) -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: -2.1% Cases, -6.5% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 28

29. Utah County
11,341
48
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Utah County projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 8,887 (93) -- Deaths: 37 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.4% -- Daily Change: -1.1% Cases, -8.3% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 29

30. Summit County, Utah
779
1
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Summit County, Utah projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 714 (1) -- Deaths: 1 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.1% -- Daily Change: -4.5% Cases, NaN% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 30

31. De Soto Parish, Louisiana
918
30
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
De Soto Parish, Louisiana projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
10
20
30
40
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 743 (16) -- Deaths: 26 (0) -- Case Mortality: 3.5% -- Daily Change: -1.3% Cases, +2.7% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 31

32. St. Francois County, Missouri
600
2
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Francois County, Missouri projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 392 (16) -- Deaths: 2 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.5% -- Daily Change: +2.0% Cases, NaN% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 32

33. Dallas, Texas
68,531
1,096
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Dallas, Texas projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
25
50
75
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 55,553 (298) -- Deaths: 785 (29) -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: -2.6% Cases, -1.2% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 33

34. Collin Texas
10,242
120
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Collin Texas projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 8,052 (219) -- Deaths: 93 (3) -- Case Mortality: 1.2% -- Daily Change: +8.2% Cases, +11.5% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 34

35. Harris County (Houston)
122,979
1,885
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Harris County (Houston) projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
30
60
90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 87,505 (942) -- Deaths: 1,616 (33) -- Case Mortality: 1.8% -- Daily Change: -3.9% Cases, +12.3% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 35

36. Tulsa County, Oklahoma
13,104
138
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tulsa County, Oklahoma projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 10,747 (185) -- Deaths: 108 (1) -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: -2.7% Cases, -5.7% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 36

37. McLean County, Illinois
972
15
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
McLean County, Illinois projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 670 (15) -- Deaths: 15 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.2% -- Daily Change: -1.9% Cases, NaN% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 37

38. Cook County, Illinois
123,599
5,084
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Cook County, Illinois projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 112,484 (536) -- Deaths: 4,933 (5) -- Case Mortality: 4.4% -- Daily Change: -0.1% Cases, -6.2% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 38

39. Suffolk County (Boston)
23,128
1,114
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Suffolk County (Boston) projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 22,017 (88) -- Deaths: 1,076 (2) -- Case Mortality: 4.9% -- Daily Change: +1.5% Cases, +2.0% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 39

40. Polk County, Iowa
12,172
233
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Polk County, Iowa projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 10,444 (93) -- Deaths: 208 (1) -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: -0.7% Cases, -8.2% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 40

41. Johnson County, Iowa
2,610
41
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Johnson County, Iowa projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
20
40
60
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,118 (11) -- Deaths: 19 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.9% -- Daily Change: -3.0% Cases, -1.0% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 41

42. Meade County, South Dakota (Sturgis)
137
1
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Meade County, South Dakota (Sturgis) projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
0.00
0.10
0.20
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 96 (2) -- Deaths: 1 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: +4.3% Cases, NaN% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 42

43. Erie County, New York
9,695
684
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Erie County, New York projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 8,987 (69) -- Deaths: 671 (0) -- Case Mortality: 7.5% -- Daily Change: +1.5% Cases, -14.1% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 43

44. Oakland County, Michigan
17,705
1,142
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Oakland County, Michigan projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
0
10
20
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 15,751 (136) -- Deaths: 1,133 (0) -- Case Mortality: 7.2% -- Daily Change: +0.2% Cases, +12.4% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 44

45. Washtenaw County, Michigan (Ann Arbor)
2,961
117
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Washtenaw County, Michigan (Ann Arbor) projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
20
40
60
80
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,582 (31) -- Deaths: 113 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.4% -- Daily Change: +0.2% Cases, -6.9% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 45

46. Wayne County (Detroit)
31,270
2,879
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Wayne County (Detroit) projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 28,423 (150) -- Deaths: 2,828 (1) -- Case Mortality: 9.9% -- Daily Change: -3.7% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 46

47. St. Louis (City)
7,405
190
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Louis (City) projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,295 (60) -- Deaths: 177 (1) -- Case Mortality: 3.3% -- Daily Change: -3.8% Cases, +3.0% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 47

48. St. Louis (County)
17,979
748
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Louis (County) projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 15,857 (346) -- Deaths: 691 (1) -- Case Mortality: 4.4% -- Daily Change: -3.6% Cases, +0.5% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 48

49. Baltimore (City)
16,275
479
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Baltimore (City) projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 12,893 (189) -- Deaths: 431 (1) -- Case Mortality: 3.3% -- Daily Change: -0.4% Cases, +0.3% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 49

50. Durham County
7,257
87
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Durham County projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
30
60
90
0.0
2.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,221 (21) -- Deaths: 80 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: -4.4% Cases, -2.1% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 50

51. Cuyahoga County (Cleveland)
16,487
591
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 13,734 (94) -- Deaths: 505 (5) -- Case Mortality: 3.7% -- Daily Change: -1.8% Cases, -1.3% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 51

52. Miami-Dade
174,213
2,909
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Miami-Dade projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 135,130 (1,507) -- Deaths: 1,909 (35) -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: -6.1% Cases, -3.4% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 52

53. Maricopa County
162,809
3,675
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Maricopa County projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
0
50
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 126,791 (420) -- Deaths: 2,382 (26) -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: -10.0% Cases, -3.4% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 53

54. Denver County
11,961
432
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Denver County projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 10,319 (56) -- Deaths: 417 (2) -- Case Mortality: 4.0% -- Daily Change: -4.2% Cases, -4.8% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 54

55. Arapahoe County
8,611
373
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Arapahoe County projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
250
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,377 (37) -- Deaths: 364 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.9% -- Daily Change: -5.7% Cases, -13.2% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 55

56. Montrose County
374
13
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Montrose County projection as of 2020-08-12
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 312 (2) -- Deaths: 13 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.2% -- Daily Change: +3.6% Cases, NaN% Deaths
2020-08-12 US Counties: 56