This document contains 24 pages of charts and graphs analyzing COVID-19 case and death trends in various US counties and regions as of August 5, 2020. It shows data on case growth rates, mortality rates, and predictive modeling projections for key counties in New York, New Jersey, Washington, California and other states. Analysis includes comparisons based on county population size, partisan political leanings, and changes over time.

1. US Counties
US Counties: 1

2. Change in New Cases per Day
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
NA
Trends by county as of 2020-08-05
NA = Inadequate data
2020-08-05 US Counties: 2

3. Percent Change by Partisan Lean
-10
-5
0
5
10
0 25 50 75 100
Percent Republican
Percentchangeinnewcasesperday
25
50
75
Republican
Counties by 2016 presidential election results
Dark green line is a Friedman's supersmoother
2020-08-05 US Counties: 3

4. Percent Change by Population
-10
-5
0
5
10
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
Population
Percentchangeinnewcasesperday
25
50
75
Republican
Counties by Population
Dark green line is a Friedman's 'super smoother'
2020-08-05 US Counties: 4

5. Partisan Lean vs Population and Direction
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
0 25 50 75 100
Percent Republican
Population
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
Partisan Lean vs Population and Direction
Dark green line is a Friedman's 'super smoother'
2020-08-05 US Counties: 5

6. Cases as a Percent of Population
0.001%
0.01%
0.1%
1%
10%
20%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Totalcases
Total Cases as a Percent of County Population
Slanted lines are counties with small integer numbers of cases, green line: Friedman's 'super smoother'
2020-08-05 US Counties: 6

7. Deaths as a Percent of Population
0.0001%
0.001%
0.01%
0.1%
1%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Totaldeaths
Total Deaths as a Percent of County Population
Slanted lines are counties with small integer numbers of cases, green line: Friedman's 'super smoother'
2020-08-05 US Counties: 7

8. Case Mortality vs. Population
0.1%
1%
10%
100%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Casemortality
Case Mortality vs. County Population
2020-08-05 US Counties: 8

9. New York City
233,215
23,856
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
New York City projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0
200
400
600
800
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 226,280 (316) -- Deaths: 23,556 (6) -- Case Mortality: 10.4% -- Daily Change: -1.8% Cases, -5.1% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 9

10. Westchester County, NY
36,790
1,461
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Westchester County, NY projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 36,049 (35) -- Deaths: 1,446 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.0% -- Daily Change: -1.9% Cases, -6.0% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 10

11. Bergen County, NJ
21,365
2,074
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Bergen County, NJ projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
300
600
900
1,200
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 20,609 (57) -- Deaths: 2,046 (0) -- Case Mortality: 9.9% -- Daily Change: +1.2% Cases, -14.4% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 11

12. Hudson County, NJ
19,735
1,521
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Hudson County, NJ projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
300
600
900
1,200
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 19,544 (16) -- Deaths: 1,505 (0) -- Case Mortality: 7.7% -- Daily Change: +9.2% Cases, -6.9% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 12

13. King County (Seattle)
20,558
690
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
King County (Seattle) projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 15,726 (123) -- Deaths: 659 (1) -- Case Mortality: 4.2% -- Daily Change: -2.2% Cases, +4.9% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 13

14. Clark County, Washington
2,332
61
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Clark County, Washington projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
30
60
90
0.0
2.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,667 (47) -- Deaths: 42 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.5% -- Daily Change: +9.1% Cases, +8.3% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 14

15. Los Angeles
276,102
6,155
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Los Angeles projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 195,805 (1,928) -- Deaths: 4,760 (58) -- Case Mortality: 2.4% -- Daily Change: -2.4% Cases, +0.9% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 15

16. Bay Area
54,188
722
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Bay Area projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
1,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 36,842 (745) -- Deaths: 535 (10) -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: +0.8% Cases, +1.4% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 16

17. San Francisco
10,471
81
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Francisco projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,989 (73) -- Deaths: 61 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.9% -- Daily Change: +0.5% Cases, +0.3% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 17

18. Santa Clara and San Mateo
25,962
342
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Santa Clara and San Mateo projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
0
10
20
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 16,774 (297) -- Deaths: 312 (2) -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: +0.8% Cases, +0.9% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 18

19. Alameda County
16,957
259
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Alameda County projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 11,909 (385) -- Deaths: 192 (3) -- Case Mortality: 1.6% -- Daily Change: +1.2% Cases, -2.5% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 19

20. San Luis Obispo, California
2,793
79
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Luis Obispo, California projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,926 (24) -- Deaths: 16 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.8% -- Daily Change: +0.3% Cases, +5.2% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 20

21. Fresno, California
26,057
249
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Fresno, California projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
1,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 15,759 (676) -- Deaths: 138 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.9% -- Daily Change: +1.9% Cases, +4.0% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 21

22. Santa Barbara County
9,551
128
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Santa Barbara County projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,526 (359) -- Deaths: 63 (3) -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: +2.3% Cases, +17.8% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 22

23. Merced County
8,551
330
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Merced County projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 4,583 (298) -- Deaths: 51 (1) -- Case Mortality: 1.1% -- Daily Change: +2.6% Cases, +6.3% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 23

24. Yolo County
2,009
44
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Yolo County projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
20
40
60
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,614 (42) -- Deaths: 42 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.6% -- Daily Change: -1.0% Cases, +14.9% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 24

25. San Diego County
45,096
809
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Diego County projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 30,516 (633) -- Deaths: 568 (3) -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: -1.1% Cases, -6.5% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 25

26. Riverside County
56,116
994
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Riverside County projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 38,487 (1,476) -- Deaths: 738 (43) -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: -1.4% Cases, +3.1% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 26

27. Imperial County
11,196
406
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Imperial County projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
250
0.0
5.0
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 9,513 (65) -- Deaths: 232 (10) -- Case Mortality: 2.4% -- Daily Change: -6.2% Cases, +6.9% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 27

28. Multnomah County (Portland)
6,939
139
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Multnomah County (Portland) projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
40
80
120
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 4,553 (56) -- Deaths: 93 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: -2.0% Cases, +0.2% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 28

29. Utah County
12,142
43
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Utah County projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 8,165 (118) -- Deaths: 35 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.4% -- Daily Change: -1.6% Cases, +10.8% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 29

30. Summit County, Utah
832
1
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Summit County, Utah projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 698 (1) -- Deaths: 1 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.1% -- Daily Change: -6.3% Cases, NaN% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 30

31. De Soto Parish, Louisiana
997
31
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
De Soto Parish, Louisiana projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.00
0.30
0.60
0.90
1.20
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 675 (13) -- Deaths: 24 (0) -- Case Mortality: 3.6% -- Daily Change: +1.0% Cases, -17.7% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 31

32. St. Francois County, Missouri
529
2
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Francois County, Missouri projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 320 (13) -- Deaths: 2 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.6% -- Daily Change: +3.9% Cases, NaN% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 32

33. Dallas, Texas
75,722
1,232
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Dallas, Texas projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
30
60
90
120
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 52,131 (641) -- Deaths: 722 (31) -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: -3.6% Cases, +1.1% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 33

34. Collin Texas
8,880
104
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Collin Texas projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,421 (18) -- Deaths: 74 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.2% -- Daily Change: -4.6% Cases, -19.5% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 34

35. Harris County (Houston)
123,891
1,516
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Harris County (Houston) projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
30
60
90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 79,536 (1,436) -- Deaths: 789 (22) -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: +1.6% Cases, +1.2% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 35

36. Tulsa County, Oklahoma
15,695
143
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tulsa County, Oklahoma projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 9,418 (259) -- Deaths: 101 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.1% -- Daily Change: -0.1% Cases, +1.0% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 36

37. McLean County, Illinois
965
15
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
McLean County, Illinois projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 584 (12) -- Deaths: 15 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.6% -- Daily Change: +1.2% Cases, NaN% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 37

38. Cook County, Illinois
120,839
5,145
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Cook County, Illinois projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 107,744 (497) -- Deaths: 4,902 (5) -- Case Mortality: 4.5% -- Daily Change: +0.1% Cases, -2.5% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 38

39. Suffolk County (Boston)
22,545
1,113
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Suffolk County (Boston) projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 21,481 (103) -- Deaths: 1,062 (3) -- Case Mortality: 4.9% -- Daily Change: +4.5% Cases, -1.4% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 39

40. Polk County, Iowa
12,476
227
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Polk County, Iowa projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 9,781 (58) -- Deaths: 203 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: -3.4% Cases, +6.3% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 40

41. Johnson County, Iowa
2,505
35
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Johnson County, Iowa projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
10
20
30
40
50
0.0
1.0
2.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,959 (26) -- Deaths: 15 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.8% -- Daily Change: +1.6% Cases, +3.3% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 41

42. Erie County, New York
9,537
700
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Erie County, New York projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 8,667 (41) -- Deaths: 669 (0) -- Case Mortality: 7.7% -- Daily Change: +0.7% Cases, -4.9% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 42

43. Oakland County, Michigan
17,319
1,155
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Oakland County, Michigan projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
0
10
20
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 14,950 (89) -- Deaths: 1,127 (0) -- Case Mortality: 7.5% -- Daily Change: +0.4% Cases, -20.8% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 43

44. St. Louis (City)
7,445
187
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Louis (City) projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 4,740 (73) -- Deaths: 171 (0) -- Case Mortality: 3.6% -- Daily Change: -1.0% Cases, +0.8% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 44

45. St. Louis (County)
24,751
766
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Louis (County) projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 14,241 (331) -- Deaths: 670 (1) -- Case Mortality: 4.7% -- Daily Change: -0.6% Cases, -6.3% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 45

46. Baltimore (City)
16,174
488
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Baltimore (City) projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 11,844 (96) -- Deaths: 417 (4) -- Case Mortality: 3.5% -- Daily Change: +0.9% Cases, -1.4% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 46

47. Durham County
7,626
91
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Durham County projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
30
60
90
0.0
2.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,946 (29) -- Deaths: 79 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: -3.2% Cases, -2.7% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 47

48. Cuyahoga County (Cleveland)
17,366
628
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 12,881 (128) -- Deaths: 482 (5) -- Case Mortality: 3.7% -- Daily Change: -2.7% Cases, -3.2% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 48

49. Wayne County (Detroit)
31,133
2,859
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Wayne County (Detroit) projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 27,564 (187) -- Deaths: 2,809 (4) -- Case Mortality: 10.2% -- Daily Change: +1.4% Cases, +5.0% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 49

50. Miami-Dade
167,597
2,645
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Miami-Dade projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 124,759 (1,115) -- Deaths: 1,724 (30) -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: -5.2% Cases, +8.4% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 50

51. Maricopa County
175,420
4,618
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Maricopa County projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 121,789 (829) -- Deaths: 2,153 (45) -- Case Mortality: 1.8% -- Daily Change: -4.5% Cases, -2.1% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 51

52. Denver County
12,583
439
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Denver County projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 9,876 (63) -- Deaths: 413 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.2% -- Daily Change: -5.4% Cases, -1.4% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 52

53. Arapahoe County
8,921
386
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Arapahoe County projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
250
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,093 (70) -- Deaths: 364 (1) -- Case Mortality: 5.1% -- Daily Change: -2.3% Cases, -9.9% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 53

54. Montrose County
376
15
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Montrose County projection as of 2020-08-05
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 287 (4) -- Deaths: 13 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.5% -- Daily Change: -1.7% Cases, -24.5% Deaths
2020-08-05 US Counties: 54