The document provides data on COVID-19 cases, deaths, and testing by US state as of July 27, 2020. Graphs show trends in new cases, deaths, percent of peak cases/deaths, total cases/deaths per million, case/death rates per million, percent tested, positive test fraction trends, hospitalization trends, case mortality vs testing, and mortality trends for each state.

1. US States
8

2. Change in New Cases per Day
New cases are:
Increasing > +3%
Increasing between +1% and +3%
No Change (-1% to +1%)
Decreasing between -1% and -3%
Decreasing > -3%
New cases by state as of 2020-07-27
9

3. Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
PercentofPeak
Daily Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
10

4. Change in New Deaths per Day
New deaths are:
Increasing > +0.5%
Increasing between +0.1% and +0.5%
No Change (-0.1% to +0.1%)
Decreasing between -0.1% and -0.5%
Decreasing > -0.5%
New deaths by state as of 2020-07-27
11

5. Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
PercentofPeak
Daily Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
12

6. Total cases per million
HI
VT
ME
MT
WV
AK
OR
WY
NH
KY
MO
WA
OH
CO
ND
OK
WI
MI
KS
PA
MN
NM
IN
SD
VA
ID
NC
CA
UT
NE
AR
IA
TX
IL
CT
TN
MD
NV
DE
SC
GA
AL
DC
MA
RI
MS
FL
NJ
NY
AZ
LA
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
0 10 20 30 40 50
State
Totalcasespermillionpopulation
Total cases to date
Total US COVID-19 Cases
13

7. Case rates per million
VT
ME
NH
HI
CT
NY
NJ
MA
RI
MI
PA
WV
SD
OR
WY
CO
MT
DC
IL
WA
OH
DE
VA
AK
IN
MN
MD
KY
NM
NE
KS
WI
ND
IA
NC
UT
MO
OK
CA
AR
ID
TX
TN
SC
GA
NV
AZ
AL
MS
FL
LA
0
200
400
0 10 20 30 40 50
State
Averagenewcasesperdaypermillionpopulation
Masks
aa
No
Yes
Average over past 7 days
US COVID-19 Case Rates
Statewide masks requirements as of 7/22/2020, p = 0.023
14

8. Case rates per million
VT
ME
NH
HI
CT
NY
NJ
MA
RI
MI
PA
WV
SD
OR
WY
CO
MT
DC
IL
WA
OH
DE
VA
AK
IN
MN
MD
KY
NM
NE
KS
WI
ND
IA
NC
UT
MO
OK
CA
AR
ID
TX
TN
SC
GA
NV
AZ
AL
MS
FL
LA
0
200
400
0 10 20 30 40 50
State
Averagenewcasesperdaypermillionpopulation
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Average over past 7 days
US COVID-19 Case Rates
Political affiliation, p = 0.01 (NB: association does not prove causation)
15

9. Total deaths per million
HI
AK
MT
WY
WV
OR
ID
UT
ME
VT
KS
OK
ND
AR
SD
TN
WI
KY
NE
NC
TX
MO
WA
CA
NV
VA
IA
FL
OH
MN
SC
NM
AL
NH
CO
GA
IN
AZ
MS
PA
MD
DE
IL
MI
LA
DC
RI
MA
CT
NY
NJ
0
500
1000
1500
0 10 20 30 40 50
State
Totaldeathspermillionpopulation
Total deaths to date
Total US COVID-19 Deaths
16

10. Deaths rates per million
VT
HI
ME
WV
WY
AK
MI
DC
CT
VA
MN
CO
KY
WA
OR
NE
NY
KS
SD
WI
MT
IL
PA
NH
UT
NJ
RI
OK
ND
MO
MD
IN
IA
AR
OH
ID
MA
NC
CA
TN
NM
NV
GA
AL
TX
FL
MS
LA
DE
SC
AZ
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
0 10 20 30 40 50
State
Averagedeathsperdaypermillionpopulation
Masks
aa
No
Yes
Averaged over past 7 days
US COVID-19 Death Rates
Statewide masks requirements as of 7/22/2020, p = 0.38
17

11. Deaths rates per million
VT
HI
ME
WV
WY
AK
MI
DC
CT
VA
MN
CO
KY
WA
OR
NE
NY
KS
SD
WI
MT
IL
PA
NH
UT
NJ
RI
OK
ND
MO
MD
IN
IA
AR
OH
ID
MA
NC
CA
TN
NM
NV
GA
AL
TX
FL
MS
LA
DE
SC
AZ
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
0 10 20 30 40 50
State
Averagedeathsperdaypermillionpopulation
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Averaged over past 7 days
US COVID-19 Death Rates
Political affiliation, p = 0.046 (NB: association does not prove causation)
18

12. Percent tested by state
HI
WY
CO
PA
OR
ID
KS
MO
IN
NH
OH
ME
TX
WA
AZ
VA
SD
KY
SC
NE
AL
GA
MD
MS
NV
MT
IA
OK
VT
WV
WI
NC
UT
FL
AR
MA
MI
MN
DE
RI
CA
ND
IL
CT
TN
NJ
DC
NM
LA
AK
NY
0
10
20
30
0 10 20 30 40 50
State
PercentTested
Percent Tested
19

13. Positive fraction trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Fractionpositivefrommintomax
Positive fraction trends from min to max
20

14. Hospitalizations trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Hospitalizationsfrommintomax
Hospitalizations trends from min to max
21

15. Case Mortality vs. Testing
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
DC
FL
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA MI
MN
MSMO
MTNE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WVWI
WY
2.5
5.0
7.5
10 15 20 25
% Tested
%Mortality
Mortality vs. Testing as of 2020-07-27
22

16. Mortality Trends
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
CaseRateMortality
Mortality Type:
13 day rolling median
Cumulative
Daily Raw
Daily vs. Cumulative Case Rate Mortality
Last week excluded because deaths are often backdated
23

17. Alabama
154,544
2,901
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Alabama projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0
50
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 79,294 (1,164) -- Deaths: 1,473 (17) -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: -0.4% Cases, +2.1% Deaths
24

18. Alaska
5,919
27
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Alaska projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,525 (186) -- Deaths: 20 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.8% -- Daily Change: +6.2% Cases, +12.3% Deaths
25

19. Arizona
208,888
9,787
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Arizona projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 162,014 (1,973) -- Deaths: 3,305 (19) -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: -0.9% Cases, +1.4% Deaths
26

20. Arkansas
69,519
716
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Arkansas projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
300
600
900
0
20
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 38,623 (642) -- Deaths: 401 (2) -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: +1.0% Cases, +1.4% Deaths
27

21. California
841,338
13,663
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
California projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
5,000
10,000
0
200
400
600
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 452,288 (5,836) -- Deaths: 8,448 (40) -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: -1.4% Cases, +1.1% Deaths
28

22. Colorado
61,753
1,982
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Colorado projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 44,318 (547) -- Deaths: 1,794 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.0% -- Daily Change: +3.3% Cases, +1.7% Deaths
29

23. Connecticut
51,188
4,590
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Connecticut projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
30
60
90
120
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 48,776 (0) -- Deaths: 4,413 (0) -- Case Mortality: 9.0% -- Daily Change: +3.1% Cases, -10.0% Deaths
30

24. Delaware
17,532
658
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Delaware projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
1,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 14,290 (88) -- Deaths: 579 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.1% -- Daily Change: +1.6% Cases, +19.4% Deaths
31

25. District of Columbia
13,701
626
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
District of Columbia projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
250
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 11,780 (63) -- Deaths: 581 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.9% -- Daily Change: +1.8% Cases, -7.7% Deaths
32

26. Florida
697,949
13,204
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Florida projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0
200
400
600
800
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 423,855 (9,344) -- Deaths: 5,854 (77) -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: -0.7% Cases, +2.5% Deaths
33

27. Georgia
319,445
4,897
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Georgia projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 167,953 (2,765) -- Deaths: 3,498 (4) -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: +0.3% Cases, +5.7% Deaths
34

28. Hawaii
2,794
54
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Hawaii projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
20
40
60
80
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,683 (63) -- Deaths: 26 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: +9.0% Cases, -4.9% Deaths
35

29. Idaho
32,079
337
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Idaho projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
600
800
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 18,178 (352) -- Deaths: 146 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.8% -- Daily Change: -1.1% Cases, +4.4% Deaths
36

30. Illinois
209,928
8,389
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Illinois projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
0
100
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 172,663 (1,541) -- Deaths: 7,590 (1) -- Case Mortality: 4.4% -- Daily Change: +3.0% Cases, -1.2% Deaths
37

31. Indiana
87,692
3,288
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Indiana projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 62,372 (852) -- Deaths: 2,903 (8) -- Case Mortality: 4.7% -- Daily Change: +3.0% Cases, +2.8% Deaths
38

32. Iowa
63,161
1,078
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Iowa projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
1,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 42,357 (471) -- Deaths: 829 (3) -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: -0.6% Cases, -1.5% Deaths
39

33. Kansas
44,152
429
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Kansas projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 25,290 (281) -- Deaths: 331 (1) -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: -0.2% Cases, +4.1% Deaths
40

34. Kentucky
49,531
944
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Kentucky projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
1,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 27,082 (318) -- Deaths: 700 (4) -- Case Mortality: 2.6% -- Daily Change: +3.1% Cases, -1.3% Deaths
41

35. Louisiana
191,197
4,715
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Louisiana projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 107,574 (3,840) -- Deaths: 3,763 (48) -- Case Mortality: 3.5% -- Daily Change: +0.9% Cases, +4.7% Deaths
42

36. Maine
4,400
141
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Maine projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
20
40
60
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,814 (24) -- Deaths: 119 (0) -- Case Mortality: 3.1% -- Daily Change: +2.6% Cases, -4.7% Deaths
43

37. Maryland
106,264
3,797
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Maryland projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 83,748 (694) -- Deaths: 3,440 (7) -- Case Mortality: 4.1% -- Daily Change: +3.3% Cases, +0.5% Deaths
44

38. Massachusetts
123,238
9,137
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Massachusetts projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 115,637 (369) -- Deaths: 8,529 (19) -- Case Mortality: 7.4% -- Daily Change: +2.2% Cases, -0.3% Deaths
45

39. Michigan
108,676
6,740
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Michigan projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 86,661 (1,039) -- Deaths: 6,400 (0) -- Case Mortality: 7.4% -- Daily Change: +0.8% Cases, -6.1% Deaths
46

40. Minnesota
74,015
1,825
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Minnesota projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 51,153 (862) -- Deaths: 1,614 (3) -- Case Mortality: 3.2% -- Daily Change: +2.8% Cases, -1.1% Deaths
47

41. Mississippi
93,656
2,420
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Mississippi projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 52,154 (1,173) -- Deaths: 1,493 (15) -- Case Mortality: 2.9% -- Daily Change: +3.7% Cases, +2.3% Deaths
48

42. Missouri
84,454
1,517
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Missouri projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
80
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 42,160 (1,126) -- Deaths: 1,209 (9) -- Case Mortality: 2.9% -- Daily Change: +6.0% Cases, +4.9% Deaths
49

43. Montana
6,626
185
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Montana projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,341 (82) -- Deaths: 46 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: +1.7% Cases, -0.7% Deaths
50

44. Nebraska
32,305
408
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Nebraska projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 24,618 (223) -- Deaths: 316 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: +2.0% Cases, -3.2% Deaths
51

45. Nevada
85,338
1,287
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Nevada projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 42,843 (1,027) -- Deaths: 734 (2) -- Case Mortality: 1.7% -- Daily Change: -0.1% Cases, +3.2% Deaths
52

46. New Hampshire
7,174
457
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Hampshire projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,436 (21) -- Deaths: 409 (0) -- Case Mortality: 6.4% -- Daily Change: +3.4% Cases, +5.1% Deaths
53

47. New Jersey
186,337
16,820
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Jersey projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
0
100
200
300
400
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 179,363 (505) -- Deaths: 15,787 (11) -- Case Mortality: 8.8% -- Daily Change: +4.6% Cases, -8.4% Deaths
54

48. New Mexico
30,472
823
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Mexico projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 19,042 (254) -- Deaths: 614 (7) -- Case Mortality: 3.2% -- Daily Change: +0.7% Cases, +3.4% Deaths
55

49. New York
432,045
33,386
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New York projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
0
250
500
750
1,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 411,736 (536) -- Deaths: 32,630 (22) -- Case Mortality: 7.9% -- Daily Change: -0.8% Cases, -0.7% Deaths
56

50. North Carolina
174,478
2,826
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
North Carolina projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
0
50
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 112,937 (1,516) -- Deaths: 1,817 (6) -- Case Mortality: 1.6% -- Daily Change: -0.7% Cases, +1.6% Deaths
57

51. North Dakota
10,015
140
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
North Dakota projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,876 (140) -- Deaths: 99 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.7% -- Daily Change: +3.1% Cases, +4.2% Deaths
58

52. Ohio
141,887
4,083
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Ohio projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 84,073 (889) -- Deaths: 3,307 (10) -- Case Mortality: 3.9% -- Daily Change: -0.6% Cases, +3.0% Deaths
59

53. Oklahoma
60,043
725
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Oklahoma projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 31,285 (1,204) -- Deaths: 496 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.6% -- Daily Change: +3.3% Cases, +4.2% Deaths
60

54. Oregon
30,746
478
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Oregon projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 16,758 (266) -- Deaths: 289 (4) -- Case Mortality: 1.7% -- Daily Change: +0.0% Cases, +2.5% Deaths
61

55. Pennsylvania
139,077
7,849
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Pennsylvania projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 111,745 (630) -- Deaths: 7,127 (3) -- Case Mortality: 6.4% -- Daily Change: +0.7% Cases, -1.8% Deaths
62

56. Rhode Island
20,143
1,079
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Rhode Island projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 18,224 (0) -- Deaths: 1,002 (0) -- Case Mortality: 5.5% -- Daily Change: -4.2% Cases, -4.1% Deaths
63

57. South Carolina
128,202
4,022
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Carolina projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0
40
80
120
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 81,199 (1,191) -- Deaths: 1,491 (26) -- Case Mortality: 1.8% -- Daily Change: -2.0% Cases, +6.8% Deaths
64

58. South Dakota
10,339
193
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Dakota projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 8,395 (90) -- Deaths: 123 (1) -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: +3.7% Cases, -4.1% Deaths
65

59. Tennessee
180,751
1,938
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Tennessee projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 93,936 (3,140) -- Deaths: 967 (3) -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: +1.3% Cases, +2.9% Deaths
66

60. Texas
804,789
15,878
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Texas projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0
200
400
600
800
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 394,084 (3,798) -- Deaths: 5,076 (86) -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: -2.9% Cases, +4.1% Deaths
67

61. Utah
65,418
546
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Utah projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
250
500
750
1,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 37,973 (350) -- Deaths: 274 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.7% -- Daily Change: -0.9% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
68

62. Vermont
1,644
56
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Vermont projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
10
20
30
40
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,400 (4) -- Deaths: 56 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.0% -- Daily Change: -0.3% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
69

63. Virginia
118,614
2,510
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Virginia projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 84,567 (958) -- Deaths: 2,078 (3) -- Case Mortality: 2.5% -- Daily Change: +1.3% Cases, -2.6% Deaths
70

64. Washington
87,356
1,716
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Washington projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 52,635 (786) -- Deaths: 1,501 (6) -- Case Mortality: 2.9% -- Daily Change: +0.1% Cases, +7.0% Deaths
71

65. West Virginia
10,943
123
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
West Virginia projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
50
100
150
200
250
0.0
5.0
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,889 (114) -- Deaths: 103 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.7% -- Daily Change: +2.2% Cases, -2.5% Deaths
72

66. Wisconsin
87,235
1,073
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Wisconsin projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
300
600
900
1,200
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 48,827 (957) -- Deaths: 892 (1) -- Case Mortality: 1.8% -- Daily Change: +1.7% Cases, +6.6% Deaths
73

67. Wyoming
4,236
41
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Wyoming projection as of 2020-07-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
20
40
60
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,475 (29) -- Deaths: 25 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: +1.4% Cases, -11.4% Deaths
74