Working from home is a long-run growth opportunity. Many such workers bring their jobs with them or start their own business in part because it is harder to find a similar job locally. One key need is good, reliable broadband. Overall Oregon does better than much of the country in terms of working from home and broadband access, however gaps exist. Furthermore there are a lot of inequities regarding access to technology. Broadband is important for social, economic, and educational needs.

1. Working from Home,
and Broadband
Access in Oregon
July 2020 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Josh Lehner

2. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
2
• Near Term: no one is moving
during the pandemic
• Medium Term: migration
reduced due to recession
• Long Term: Oregon’s ability to
attract and retain working-age
households is expected to
remain intact
• COVID-19 impacts still TBD
• Oregon vs Rest of Country
• Urban vs Rural
• Suburbs vs City Center
• Detached Single Family
vs Multifamily
Oregon’s Comparative Advantage: Ability to
Attract and Retain a Skilled Workforce

3. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
3
Long-Run Growth Opportunity
• Available Census Data
• Nothing on true remote workers
• Can get data on workers who do
not commute regularly into an
office (working from home)
• Oregon ranks #2 among states in
working from home
• Top Ten: CO, OR, VT, MT, UT, NH,
AZ, WA, WY, ID
• Other estimates
• American Time Use Survey: 20%
work from home in some
capacity, 11% full-time
• Freelancing in American Survey:
17% do most of work remotely
• 15% of Oregon employers offer
ability to telecommute to full-
time workers, 7% to part-time

4. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
4
About 1 in 3 Workers can Theoretically
Work from Home, but Varies by Job

5. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
5
Characteristics of Individuals
• Older, more experienced workers
• Median age 45 vs 40 for wage earners
• More women than men
• More likely to own home
• Higher levels of educational attainment
• Work in every industry and every
occupational group; wide, diverse swath of
economy
• 4x more likely to be self-employed, and/or
report business income
• Income is bimodal. More likely to report low
or negative income (business losses) or
higher income than wage earners
Characteristics of Locations
• Locations with faster overall job growth,
more start-ups, and higher quality of life
all have higher work from home share
• The higher the home price in an area, the
lower the work from home share
• While the general cost of living, commute
times, and software jobs are correlated
with working from home, they are not
statistically significant
Who Works from Home and Why?

6. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
6
Regardless of Potential, All of Oregon Ranks
Well in Actually Working from Home
In the short-run (pandemic), WfH response is largely about the ability to do so, and the local occupational mix.
In the long-run, WfH more likely about all the other aspects and where workers choose to live.

7. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
7
Huge Benefit: Economic Diversification
• People working from home
come from every industry and
occupation
• However, people working
from home tend to hold jobs
in occupations that are
underrepresented in local
economy
• In other words, those working
from home are diversifying
their regional economies
• Potential risk is small
businesses and remote
workers may be more
susceptible in downturns
More regional charts available at end of presentation

8. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
8
Issue: Not Just Broadband Access but
Quality and Price of that Access
U.S. Oregon
No Internet 14.7% 11.7%
Internet 85.3% 88.3%
Dial-Up Only 0.3% 0.4%
Cellular 75.7% 79.0%
Cellular Only 11.6% 10.6%
Cable/Fiber/DSL 69.6% 72.3%
Satellite 6.9% 7.1%
Percentages are share of all households. Types of internet do not
sum to total as some households have multiple subscriptions.
Data: 2018 ACS | Source: Census, Oregon Office of Econ Analysis

9. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
9
Access to Technology Matters

10. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
10
Oregon Does Well Relative to Much of
Country on Both Fronts
• Massive shifts in working from
home unlikely, nor large enough
to drive overall economic
transformation
• Categorically, entrepreneurs &
business owners likely provide
larger economic impact than
remote workers
• That said, every little bit can
help smaller metros and rural
areas diversify and grow
• Availability and quality of
broadband matters

11. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
11
• Major Supply Constraints
• Lending
• Lots
• Land Use
• Labor
• Confidence
• State Housing Policies may
Help Boost Supply Some
• Duplex Legalization
• Regional Housing Needs
Analysis
Housing: Real Issue is Lack of Supply
not “Too Much Demand”

12. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
12
Benefits of Metro Areas
• People choose cities for more
than jobs
• Cities offer thicker labor markets
for future job opportunities
• Young workers need experience
before able to work remotely
• In-office experience matters for
promotions and layoffs
Nature of Work
• Commercial real estate risks
• Firms need to invest in
technological infrastructure
• Unbundling of in-person tasks
and remote possibilities
• If allowing remote work, why not
offshoring it completely?
Additional Considerations
Source: CityObservatory http://cityobservatory.org/city-beat-when-workers-can-live-anywhere/ Source: Brynjolfsson et al. https://www.nber.org/papers/w27344.pdf

13. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
13
Contact
www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com
@OR_EconAnalysis
joshua.lehner@oregon.gov
(971) 209-5929

14. Additional Regional
Diversification Charts

15. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
15
Regions based on available Census data the
Public Use Microdata Area level (PUMA)
Source: U.S Census, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
North
Coast
Portland
Salem
Mid-Valley
North
Central
Northeast
BendEugene
SoutheastSouthwest
Medford

16. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
16
Huge Benefit: Economic Diversification
• People working from home
come from every industry and
occupation
• However, people working
from home tend to hold jobs
in occupations that are
underrepresented in local
economy
• In other words, those working
from home are diversifying
their regional economies
• Potential risk is small
businesses and remote
workers may be more
susceptible in downturns

17. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
17
In Portland Building on Strengths
• People working from home
come from every industry and
occupation
• While working from home
tends to be in occupations
that are underrepresented in
local economy, this is not the
case in Portland
• In the tri-county area, working
from home is highest among
occupations that are already
local strengths
• Potential risk is small
businesses and remote
workers may be more
susceptible in downturns

18. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
18
Huge Benefit: Economic Diversification
• People working from home
come from every industry and
occupation
• However, people working
from home tend to hold jobs
in occupations that are
underrepresented in local
economy
• In other words, those working
from home are diversifying
their regional economies
• Potential risk is small
businesses and remote
workers may be more
susceptible in downturns

19. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
19
Huge Benefit: Economic Diversification
• People working from home
come from every industry and
occupation
• However, people working
from home tend to hold jobs
in occupations that are
underrepresented in local
economy
• In other words, those working
from home are diversifying
their regional economies
• Potential risk is small
businesses and remote
workers may be more
susceptible in downturns

20. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
20
Huge Benefit: Economic Diversification
• People working from home
come from every industry and
occupation
• However, people working
from home tend to hold jobs
in occupations that are
underrepresented in local
economy
• In other words, those working
from home are diversifying
their regional economies
• Potential risk is small
businesses and remote
workers may be more
susceptible in downturns

21. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
21
Huge Benefit: Economic Diversification
• People working from home
come from every industry and
occupation
• However, people working
from home tend to hold jobs
in occupations that are
underrepresented in local
economy
• In other words, those working
from home are diversifying
their regional economies
• Potential risk is small
businesses and remote
workers may be more
susceptible in downturns

22. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
22
Huge Benefit: Economic Diversification
• People working from home
come from every industry and
occupation
• However, people working
from home tend to hold jobs
in occupations that are
underrepresented in local
economy
• In other words, those working
from home are diversifying
their regional economies
• Potential risk is small
businesses and remote
workers may be more
susceptible in downturns

23. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
23
Huge Benefit: Economic Diversification
• People working from home
come from every industry and
occupation
• However, people working
from home tend to hold jobs
in occupations that are
underrepresented in local
economy
• In other words, those working
from home are diversifying
their regional economies
• Potential risk is small
businesses and remote
workers may be more
susceptible in downturns

24. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
24
Huge Benefit: Economic Diversification
• People working from home
come from every industry and
occupation
• However, people working
from home tend to hold jobs
in occupations that are
underrepresented in local
economy
• In other words, those working
from home are diversifying
their regional economies
• Potential risk is small
businesses and remote
workers may be more
susceptible in downturns

25. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
25
Huge Benefit: Economic Diversification
• People working from home
come from every industry and
occupation
• However, people working
from home tend to hold jobs
in occupations that are
underrepresented in local
economy
• In other words, those working
from home are diversifying
their regional economies
• Potential risk is small
businesses and remote
workers may be more
susceptible in downturns

26. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
26
Huge Benefit: Economic Diversification
• People working from home
come from every industry and
occupation
• However, people working
from home tend to hold jobs
in occupations that are
underrepresented in local
economy
• In other words, those working
from home are diversifying
their regional economies
• Potential risk is small
businesses and remote
workers may be more
susceptible in downturns