Tom Stinson, MN State Economist and Tom Gillaspy, MN State Demographer, delivered a powerful presentation at a Minnesota High Tech Association CEO Briefing last summer.
13. Minnesota A Leader Among Northeast and North Central States In Population Growth Since 1990, Slightly Slower Than The National Average BEA from Census. US=1.1%, Mn 1.0% per year
31. By 2020 Minnesota will add about ¾ Million People & 1/3 Million Households State Demographer projection revised 2007
32. Suburban & Exurban Growth Coupled With Rural Declines Central Cities Have Stabilized
33. Upper Midwest Becoming More Diverse But Still Less Than The Nation Note: Population except white alone, not Hispanic, 2006 Census Bureau estimate. Hennepin in 2005
34. In 2006, Minnesota’s Foreign Born Workforce Was 240,000 or 8% Of The Total Workforce 2006 ACS
35. From 2010 to 2020, Minnesota Will See Large Increases Age 50s and 60s Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center Numbers are rounded
36. The Number of Workers Turning Age 62 Will Jump 30 Percent in 2008 2005 ACS
37. Childless Couples And 1-person Households Projected To Grow Minnesota State Demographic Center projections
38. Competition For The Future Workforce Will Increase Census Bureau US Proj, Mn State Demographer revised 2007
40. Migration Increases in Importance as Labor Force Growth Slows State Demographer projection revised 2007
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44. R&D Spending Slowed in the Early 90s We Are No Longer Above Average Rank 1972 Rank 2004 Total Academic R&D 19 26 Academic R&D per capita 20 40 Academic R&D per dollar of GSP 20 43
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46. Education Is The Key To Productivity Minnesota High School Graduation Ratio 2004-05 through 2005-06 graduates. Based on 10 th grade enrollment three years earlier.
48. Minnesota’s Population Will Change The Three Largest Cost Drivers In The State Budget Census counts & State Demographer projection, revised 2007
49. Health Care Spending Jumps After 55 U.S. Health Care Spending By Age, 2004 Source: Agency for HealthCare Research and Quality, Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, data for per capita spending by age group in the Midwest. Excludes spending for long-term care institutions.
50. State Taxes Paid by a Married Couple Before and After Retirement -58% -$2,695 $1,987 $896 $1,091 $45,000 -72% -$1,459 $559 $559 $0 $25,000 Retired @ 70 % $4,682 $1,295 $3,387 $65,000 $2,018 $782 $1,236 $35,000 Working Pct Change Total Sales Tax Income Tax Income
55. Actual vs. Efficient MN One-Year Tax-Mix Given the Current Trend Growth Rate Actual FY 2005-2007 Portfolio Efficient Tax Mix Portfolio Difference: (Efficient Less Actual) Trend Growth Rate 7.70% 7.70% 0.00% Volatility (Standard Deviation) 3.26% 3.09% -0.17% Share of Total Tax Revenue General Sales 31.2% 60.3% +29.2% Corporate Income 7.4% 13.1% +5.6% Individual Income 48.1% 9.2% -39.0% Other Revenues 13.3% 17.4% +4.2% Total 100.0% 100.0%