The document discusses disrupted global supply chains across states due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Strong demand has strained domestic production capacity in most sectors. Struggling global supply chains have resulted in record shipping costs, low inventories, and rising prices. Imports and exports have been harder with affected industries in every state. Trucking plays a major role in domestic shipments. The pandemic has accelerated the importance of distribution centers. The outlook expects supply chain pressures to ease as the pandemic wanes and demand cools, increasing production and goods movement to meet demand.

1. Disrupted Supply
Chains Across States
October 2021 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Josh Lehner

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Economic Analysis
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If you’re sick, you can’t work
Source: CDC map of JHU data, 9/28/21
Global COVID-19 Cases
Per 100,000 Population, Past 30 Days

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Economic Analysis
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Strong demand but domestic production
at or near capacity in most sectors

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Economic Analysis
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Source: MacroMicro9/3/21
Struggling global supply chains…
Record Shipping Costs

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Economic Analysis
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…result in low inventories…

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Economic Analysis
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…and rising prices. One definition of inflation
is too many dollars chasing too few goods

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Economic Analysis
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Imports affect every sector & state
State estimates use U.S. imports of intermediategoods by 3 digit manufacturing sector
and maps to each state based on state GDP by sector

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Economic Analysis
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Harder to get exports to market too

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Economic Analysis
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However, domestic shipments are even
larger as goods move around the U.S.

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Economic Analysis
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Trucking really matters
Source: https://transportgeography.org/contents/chapter5/transportation-modes-modal-competition-modal-shift/performance-freight-modes/

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Economic Analysis
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Pandemic accelerated importance
Note: Forecasts do not include the 2 recently announced distribution
centers in Canby and Woodburn

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Economic Analysis
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Bonus: Oregon should be outperforming
U.S. based on manufacturing mix

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Economic Analysis
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Outlook: How do supply chains ease
• Pandemic wanes, allowing more workers to return to work, increasing
production and movement of goods within existing supply chains
• Includes COVID cases both domestic and foreign
• Record-strong demand cools some, easing supply chain pressures
• Could be shift in spending back into services, and/or higher prices resulting in fewer
quantities of goods sold
• Increased productive capacity allows supply to meet that demand
• Increased trucking activity allows better movement of goods, creating
less bottlenecks at ports, railyards, warehouses, and the like

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Economic Analysis
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Delivery times no longer worsening Business investment is strong
Silver lining
Source: https://twitter.com/RenMacLLC/status/1443576135149752324

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Economic Analysis
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Contact
www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com
@OR_EconAnalysis
joshua.lehner@oregon.gov
(971) 209-5929