Summarizing the channels of impact from COVID-19 on Oregon's economy and revenues. This includes 3 timely measures of economic activity our office is tracking. A full update to the economic and revenue forecast will be released May 20th. This will allow time to analyze new data and gather input from our advisory groups in the weeks ahead.

1. COVID-19 and
Oregon’s Economy
March 2020
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

2. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
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•Public Health pandemic
• Health care industry will be stressed
•Coordinating event; recession catalyst
• Loss of business and consumer confidence
•Supply chain disruptions
• Temporarily impacts manufacturing
•Workforce disruptions
• Benefits, remote work, available labor, parental leave
•Consumer spending declines
• Social Distancing, short-term but permanent losses
COVID-19: Economic Impact

3. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
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Stressed industry capacity

4. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
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Potential coordinating event

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Economic Analysis
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Supply chain disruptions

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Economic Analysis
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Local workforce disruptions

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Economic Analysis
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Consumer spending risk

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Economic Analysis
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Social Distancing
Industry Business Units Employment Annual Wages 1 Month Wage Bill
Air Transportation (NAICS 481) 88 5,394 $397,802,000 $33,150,000
Ground Transportation (NAICS 485) 305 5,938 $167,090,000 $13,924,000
Sightseeing Transportation (NAICS 487) 42 335 $9,509,000 $792,000
Leisure & Hospitality (NAICS 71-72) 14,090 212,802 $5,014,373,000 $417,864,000
Eating and Drinking (NAICS 722) 10,626 158,962 $3,470,289,000 $289,191,000
Social Distancing Total 14,524 224,469 $5,588,774,000 $465,730,000
Share of All Industries 9.2% 11.6% 5.3%
Total Retail Trade (NAICS 44-45) 13,966 209,793 6,751,652,000 562,638,000
Food and Beverage (NAICS 445) 2,267 43,209 1,150,222,000 95,852,000
Pharmacies and Drug (NAICS 44611) 427 4,945 206,814,000 17,235,000
Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447) 916 11,373 264,253,000 22,021,000
Social Distancing Retail Total 10,356 150,266 $5,130,363,000 $427,530,000
Share of All Industries 6.5% 7.7% 4.9%
Data: QCEW, 2018q4-2019q3 | Source: Moody's Analytics, Oregon Employment Department, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Social Distancing in Oregon Moody’s Analytics put together a
list of the industries likely to be
most impacted by social
distancing. It includes air and
ground transportation plus leisure
and hospitality.
Nationally these account for ~7%
of U.S. GDP and more like 10% of
total consumer spending. Here in
Oregon they are a bit larger, more
like 11-12% of consumer sending.
The second set of figures are
helping to gauge the relative size
of retail sectors that are impacted
today but also may be considered
non-essential if further
restrictions are put in place.
Keep in mind this is a rough first
look. These are not the economic
impacts per se and do not include
all affected industries. That said,
they help scope and frame some
of the discussion surrounding the
initial impacts.

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Economic Analysis
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• Baseline Economic Outlook
• Recession or Near-Term Shock?
• Tax filing deadline extension
• Impact on timing of collections
• Wages & Business Income
• Personal Tax Withholdings & Passthrough Income, Corporate Income
• Investment Income
• Capital Gains Realizations, Interest & Dividends, Fund Balances
• Revenues Driven by Spending
• Corporate Activity Tax, Lottery, Liquor, Tobacco & Marijuana
• Other Funds
• Tuition, Fuel Taxes, etc
COVID-19: Revenue Issues

10. What We’re Watching

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Economic Analysis
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•Employment Report
• March report unlikely to show significant impacts. April
report released for US (5/8) and for Oregon (5/19)
•Consumer Spending
• March retail sales report released 4/15
• March personal income and outlays (spending) 4/30
•Business & Consumer Sentiment
• March data released mid-April
•U.S. GDP
• 2020q2 data released in July
Main Economic Indicators
Released with Time Lags

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Economic Analysis
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•Withholdings out of paychecks
• Important for personal income taxes but also as a real-
time measure of the labor market
•Initial claims for unemployment
insurance
• Great leading indicator and measure of firm layoffs. Also
some info about worker behavior and how quickly they
think they can get another job.
•Video lottery sales
• Real-time measure of discretionary consumer spending
Timely Oregon Data

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Economic Analysis
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Data is very noisy.
These growth
rates are based
on a rolling 30 day
sum of
collections.
Oregon has seen
slow year-over-
year gains
periodically in
recent years.
Our office will
continue to
monitor and see
to what extent
withholding
growth rebounds
or falls further.
Withholding thru 3/13

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Economic Analysis
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UI Claims thru 2/29
Data released
every Thursday.
The 2019 March
spike is largely
snow-related
disruptions to
Oregon’s
economy.

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Economic Analysis
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Video Lottery thru 3/14
Noisy weekly data
but larger trends
quite clear in video
lottery sales.
An 80% reduction
in video sales for 2
week translates
into about $20
million fewer state
resources. A 100%
reduction for 2
weeks is $25
million.

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Economic Analysis
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Contact
mark.mcmullen@oregon.gov
(503) 378-3455
joshua.lehner@oregon.gov
(971) 209-5929
www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com
@OR_EconAnalysis