"Is the Future of Wireless Wired? FTTX in Support of Nomadic Broadband Users", presented at the New World of Applications workshop at the FTTH Conference, Stockholm, February 2014

1. IS THE FUTURE OF WIRELESS WIRED?
FTTX IN SUPPORT OF NOMADIC BROADBAND USERS
Marc Jadoul (@mjadoul)
Stockholm, 18 February 2014
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2. The trend has
been that mobile
was winning.
It's now won.
Eric Schmidt
Executive Chairman, Google
Source: http://mashable.com/2013/12/30/eric-schmidt-predictions-2014
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3. MOBILE TRAFFIC KEEPS GROWING,
WITH VIDEO PLAYING AN EVER MORE PROMINENT ROLE
21,500
PB
Other
Games & Apps
Video
5,326
PB
Music
Browsing
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Source: Strategy Analytics, Handset Data Traffic (2013)
3
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2017

4. MASLOW’S HIERARCHY REDEFINED
SELFACTUALIZATION
achieving one’s full
potential & creativity
SELF-ESTEEM
prestige & feeling of accomplishment
BELONGINGNESS & LOVE
intimate relationships, friends
SAFETY
security, stability, safety
PSYCHOLOGICAL
food, water, shelter, warmth, …
Source: http://www.simplypsychology.org/maslow.html
4
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5. NEW USAGE PATTERNS CHALLENGE MOBILE NETWORKS
63%
OF USERS SAY
IT’S IMPORTANT
TO BE CONNECTED
AT ALL TIMES
26%
OF 4G USERS CHECK
SOCIAL MEDIA MORE
THAN 10X A DAY
62% 58%
OF USERS SAY
MOBILE DATA
SPEEDS ARE
VERY IMPORTANT
OF USERS SAY ALWAYS-ON
CONNECTIVITY IS
IMPORTANT FOR THEIR
SOCIAL LIVES
25% 26%
OF 4G USERS SPEND 3 OR
MORE HOURS A DAY ON
THE INTERNET EVERY DAY
OF 4G USERS
DOWNLOAD, UPLOAD,
AND STREAM VIDEOS
Sources: Yankee Group US Consumer Survey (2012), 4GEE Mobile Living Index & Orange Exposure (2013)
5
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6. DEMAND FOR (DENSE) WIRELESS ACCESS
IN PUBLIC PLACES IS RISING
Sports stadium
Train/bus station
Airport
Office
Hospital
Shopping mall
Convention center
High street
School
Hotel
Supermarket
Retail shop
Multi Dweller Units
House
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Average Mb/s per 10m2
Source: Ruckus Wireless (2012)
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7. EVEN WITHIN THE HOME,
MOBILE MULTIMEDIA IS BECOMING PERVASIVE
100%
90%
80%
% OF USE INDOORS
100%
70%
90%
60%
80%
50%
70%
40%
iPad
iPhone Blackberry
30%
20%
10%
0%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Outdoor mobile data usage
2015
2016
Indoor mobile data usage
Source: Mobile Experts (2012), GigaOM (2012)
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2017

8. SMARTPHONES AND TABLETS
TEND TO PLAY DIFFERENT ROLES
Living room
Living room
Library
School
Other
Work
Friend’s
house
67%
20%
22%
Bedroom
53%
34%
58%
Where do you access
the internet on your
SMARTPHONE ?
8%
School
31%
Home
office
Library
68%
65%
Restaurant
51%
74%
75%
In stores
49%
Where do you access
the internet on your
TABLET?
12%
14%
Outdoors
26%
Friend’s
house
Public
trarnsport
26%
Home
office
20%
Car
While
traveling
Kitchen
40%
10%
Other
74%
Bedroom
63%
In stores
Kitchen
Work
60%
Outdoors
72%
65%
48%
28%
18%
30%
Restaurant
Daily
commute
15%
9%
Daily
commute
Source: Forrester Research (2013)
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While
traveling
Car
Public transport

9. NEED FOR DIFFERENT ‘MIXES’ OF
MOBILITY, CAPACITY AND COVERAGE
Full mobility
Nomadic usage
Mainly low
bandwidth services
Often high
bandwidth services
Macro coverage
Small cells & Wi-Fi
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10. NOMADIC VIDEO IS SOARING WITH A 73% CAGR
200,000
Home video users
(premium content)
180,000
160,000
140,000
Nomadic video users
(premium content)
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
Mobile video users
(premium content)
40,000
20,000
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: The NPD Group (US, 2011)
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2015

11. NOMADIC BROADBAND ROLLOUT OPPORTUNITIES
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12. DEFINING THE IDEAL NETWORK FOR WIRELESS NOMADS
a wireless HetNet mixing 3G/4G
macro cells, small cells and Wi-Fi
automatic network discovery,
selection and authentication,
with seamless handover between
cellular and Wi-Fi access
a high-capacity, fiber-based mobile
backhaul and transport network
12
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13. FIBER+WIRELESS ULTRA-BROADBAND
DEPLOYMENT SCENARIOS
Small Cell Backhaul
Fiber + Copper/Cable
to the Homespot/Enterprise Hotspot
Fiber to the
Streetspot
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14. TWDM
PON
CURRENT FTTX TECHNOLOGIES CAN FULFILL
GROWING BACKHAUL CAPACITY NEEDS
Required downstream MBH capacity (Mb/s)
4,000
3,500
3,000
…
(~40 Gb/s)
Highest capacity site (3 collocated operators)
Highest capacity site (1 operator)
Capacity site (1 operator)
Coverage site (1 operator)
Public access small cell (1 operator)
GPON
2,500
2,000
1,500
G.fast
1,000
(vectoring)
500
0
2011
VDSL2
(vectoring)
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Sources: Heavy Reading (2013), Alcatel-Lucent — data speeds may depend on loop and noise conditions
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2017

15. FTTX TECHNOLOGY FOR MOBILE BACKHAUL
LEADS TO FASTER NETWORK MONETIZATION
MONTHLY COST PER MBPS BY TECHNOLOGY
T1/E1/DS3 copper
Microwave radio
Ethernet copper/fiber
LOWER OPEX
MBH WHOLESALE REVENUES
POWERING
PON
CLOCK SYNC
P2P
VDSL
BANDWIDTH
BONDING
RESIDENTIAL ULTRA-BB UBIQUITOUSLY AVAILABLE
Sources: ABI Research (Western-Europe, 2013), Alcatel-Lucent
15
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16. CONCLUSION: WIRELESS AND WIRELINE ARE
THE YIN AND YANG OF BROADBAND GROWTH
WIRELESS
DEVICES & APPS
WIRELINE
OFFLOAD & BACKHAUL
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