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The Unbearable Lightness of IoT Forecasting
Marc Jadoul ( @mjadoul)
Dallas, 21 April 2015
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Good morning.
How was your breakfast?
Photo:pictures.4ever.eu
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Breakfast in 2020
Perfectly baked bread
thanks to the wireless
temperature sensor
implants in the dough.(1)
A connected egg tray tells
you how many eggs you have
left in your smart fridge.(2)(3)
Your cup monitors the
temperature of your tea.(6)
The smart bowl calculates the
calories you’re taking in.(4)
A smart spoon assists people
with hand tremors.(7)
(1) http://www.powerretail.com.au/case-profiles-studies/high-tech-bread/
(2) http://gigaom.com/2013/08/20/podcast-hard-boiled-quirky-and-ge-will-connect-your-eggs-and-crack-open-the-iot-space/
(3) http://www.nbcnews.com/tech/gift-guide/out-milk-lgs-new-smart-fridge-will-let-you-know-n99531
(4) http://www.npr.org/blogs/thesalt/2014/07/15/331402697/calorie-counting-machine-may-make-dieting-easier-in-the-future
(5) http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/10364890/WiFi-kettle-allows-you-to-boil-water-from-bed.html
(6) http://www.instructables.com/id/Smart-Coffer-Cup-Temperature-Reminds-For-Your-Hot-/
(7) http://www.voanews.com/content/smart-spoon-allows-parkinsons-sufferers-to-feed-themselves/1830217.html
The iKettle was switched on
while you were still in bed.(5)
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A typical family home
could contain more than
500 smart devices by 2022.
Gartner, September 2014
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The next step in Internet evolution
Pre-internet
era
Internet of
CONTENT
Internet of
SERVICES
Internet of
PEOPLE
Internet of
THINGS
SocialWeb 2.0WWWH2H M2M
+ + + +
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When 3 industries come together…
BIG
data
M2M
communications IT
enabled
COMMS
enabled
CE
enabled
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Source: Gartner, July 2014
Internet of Things
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Source: gsmaintelligence.com
Image: http://gizmodo.com/a-map-of-every-device-in-the-world-thats-connected-to-t-1628171291
At the end of 2014 the number of mobile-connected
devices exceeded the world’s population
And this is just a beginning …
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The IoT in 2020: it’s going to be biiiiig
(though nobody really knows how big…)
28.1 billion
“things” in 2020
26 billion
“units” by 2020
$7.1 trillion
global revenues
by 2020
$300 billion
services revenues
in 2020
$1.9 trillion
global economic
value in 2020
Source: IDC, October 2014 Source: Gartner, March 2014
18 billion
M2M “connections”
by 2022
$1.2 trillion
Global opportuniy
by 2022
of which
2.6 billion
are cellular
Source: Machina Research, January 2013
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1car
Cellular data
Bluetooth
Wi-Fi
Homelink
TPMS
(GPS)
5 connections
100 sensors
Air–fuel ratio,
blind spot monitor,
crankshaft position,
curb feeler, defect
detector, engine
coolant temperature,
Hall effect sensor,
manifold absolute
pressure, mass flow,
oxygen, parking
sensors, radar gun
detector, speed,
throttle position,
tire-pressure, torque,
transmission fluid
temperature, turbine
speed, variable
reluctance, water-in-
fuel, water-on-
windshield, wheel
speed, etc. etc.
What are they actually counting?
Photo:motortrend.com
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Image:http://www.bobmcmahon.com
Did they count everything?
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(1) http://www.m2mnow.biz/2013/05/11/11795-container-tracking-systems-installed-base-grew-54-in-2012-says-new-berg-insight-report/
(2) http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2014/09/schiphol_airport_tests_cameras.php
(3) http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-25197917
(4) http://www.psfk.com/2014/01/true-love-bra.html
(5) http://www.idownloadblog.com/2014/01/06/ces-2014-kolibree-toothbrush/
(6) http://smartinteractionlab.com/whistle-connected-dog-collar/
(7) http://www.cnet.com/news/how-googles-robo-cars-mean-the-end-of-driving-as-we-know-it/
(8) http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/baidu-launches-smart-chopsticks-to-detect-contaminated-food-9711478.html
(6)
(3, 4)
(8)
(1)
(2)
All ‘things’ great and small?
(5)
(7)
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The short tail vs the long tail
# Applications
KILLER APPS
THE LONG TAIL
SEGMENT/INDUSTRY/
BUSINESS SPECIFIC
Assets/Application
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A complex and diverse ecosystem
Based upon: Matt Turk, Sutian Dong, FirstMark Capital, 2013
TELE-
COM
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Photo:visitoakdaleca.Com
Why should we care about the network?
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COPYRIGHT © 2015 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Photo:visitoakdaleca.Com
Within 3 years, 50% of IT networks will transition
from having excess capacity to handle the additional
IoT devices to being network constrained with nearly
10% of sites being overwhelmed.
Within the next 5 years, more than 90% of all IoT
data will be hosted on cloud-based service provider
platforms.
IDC, December 2014
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COPYRIGHT © 2015 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
The network can make or break the IoT experience
http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/techzine/iot-internet-of-things-network-can-make-break/
Performance Scalability Manageability Horizontalization
Flexible growth Security Interoperability Big data handling
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COPYRIGHT © 2015 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Are you ready for
this new experience?
Fido @connected_collar 3h
Your dog needs a walk
Inventory @my_suitcase 2h
3 pairs of fresh socks left
Time Keeper @Timekeeper 2m
Conclude your talk NOW!
Mike @ETSI_microphone3 5s
The next speaker is ready ;-)
Home Discover Activity
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Photo:http://www.picturesonwalls.com
Thought of the day…
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IoT Innovation Forum (2015)

  • 1.
    1 COPYRIGHT © 2015ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. The Unbearable Lightness of IoT Forecasting Marc Jadoul ( @mjadoul) Dallas, 21 April 2015
  • 2.
    2 COPYRIGHT © 2015ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Good morning. How was your breakfast? Photo:pictures.4ever.eu
  • 3.
    3 COPYRIGHT © 2015ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Breakfast in 2020 Perfectly baked bread thanks to the wireless temperature sensor implants in the dough.(1) A connected egg tray tells you how many eggs you have left in your smart fridge.(2)(3) Your cup monitors the temperature of your tea.(6) The smart bowl calculates the calories you’re taking in.(4) A smart spoon assists people with hand tremors.(7) (1) http://www.powerretail.com.au/case-profiles-studies/high-tech-bread/ (2) http://gigaom.com/2013/08/20/podcast-hard-boiled-quirky-and-ge-will-connect-your-eggs-and-crack-open-the-iot-space/ (3) http://www.nbcnews.com/tech/gift-guide/out-milk-lgs-new-smart-fridge-will-let-you-know-n99531 (4) http://www.npr.org/blogs/thesalt/2014/07/15/331402697/calorie-counting-machine-may-make-dieting-easier-in-the-future (5) http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/10364890/WiFi-kettle-allows-you-to-boil-water-from-bed.html (6) http://www.instructables.com/id/Smart-Coffer-Cup-Temperature-Reminds-For-Your-Hot-/ (7) http://www.voanews.com/content/smart-spoon-allows-parkinsons-sufferers-to-feed-themselves/1830217.html The iKettle was switched on while you were still in bed.(5)
  • 4.
    4 COPYRIGHT © 2015ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. A typical family home could contain more than 500 smart devices by 2022. Gartner, September 2014
  • 5.
    5 COPYRIGHT © 2015ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. The next step in Internet evolution Pre-internet era Internet of CONTENT Internet of SERVICES Internet of PEOPLE Internet of THINGS SocialWeb 2.0WWWH2H M2M + + + +
  • 6.
    6 COPYRIGHT © 2015ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. When 3 industries come together… BIG data M2M communications IT enabled COMMS enabled CE enabled
  • 7.
    7 COPYRIGHT © 2015ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Source: Gartner, July 2014 Internet of Things
  • 8.
    8 COPYRIGHT © 2015ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Source: gsmaintelligence.com Image: http://gizmodo.com/a-map-of-every-device-in-the-world-thats-connected-to-t-1628171291 At the end of 2014 the number of mobile-connected devices exceeded the world’s population And this is just a beginning … 8 COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
  • 9.
    9 COPYRIGHT © 2015ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. The IoT in 2020: it’s going to be biiiiig (though nobody really knows how big…) 28.1 billion “things” in 2020 26 billion “units” by 2020 $7.1 trillion global revenues by 2020 $300 billion services revenues in 2020 $1.9 trillion global economic value in 2020 Source: IDC, October 2014 Source: Gartner, March 2014 18 billion M2M “connections” by 2022 $1.2 trillion Global opportuniy by 2022 of which 2.6 billion are cellular Source: Machina Research, January 2013
  • 10.
    10 COPYRIGHT © 2015ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 1car Cellular data Bluetooth Wi-Fi Homelink TPMS (GPS) 5 connections 100 sensors Air–fuel ratio, blind spot monitor, crankshaft position, curb feeler, defect detector, engine coolant temperature, Hall effect sensor, manifold absolute pressure, mass flow, oxygen, parking sensors, radar gun detector, speed, throttle position, tire-pressure, torque, transmission fluid temperature, turbine speed, variable reluctance, water-in- fuel, water-on- windshield, wheel speed, etc. etc. What are they actually counting? Photo:motortrend.com
  • 11.
    11 COPYRIGHT © 2015ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Image:http://www.bobmcmahon.com Did they count everything?
  • 12.
    12 COPYRIGHT © 2015ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. (1) http://www.m2mnow.biz/2013/05/11/11795-container-tracking-systems-installed-base-grew-54-in-2012-says-new-berg-insight-report/ (2) http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2014/09/schiphol_airport_tests_cameras.php (3) http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-25197917 (4) http://www.psfk.com/2014/01/true-love-bra.html (5) http://www.idownloadblog.com/2014/01/06/ces-2014-kolibree-toothbrush/ (6) http://smartinteractionlab.com/whistle-connected-dog-collar/ (7) http://www.cnet.com/news/how-googles-robo-cars-mean-the-end-of-driving-as-we-know-it/ (8) http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/baidu-launches-smart-chopsticks-to-detect-contaminated-food-9711478.html (6) (3, 4) (8) (1) (2) All ‘things’ great and small? (5) (7)
  • 13.
    13 COPYRIGHT © 2015ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. The short tail vs the long tail # Applications KILLER APPS THE LONG TAIL SEGMENT/INDUSTRY/ BUSINESS SPECIFIC Assets/Application
  • 14.
    14 COPYRIGHT © 2015ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. A complex and diverse ecosystem Based upon: Matt Turk, Sutian Dong, FirstMark Capital, 2013 TELE- COM
  • 15.
    15 COPYRIGHT © 2015ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Photo:visitoakdaleca.Com Why should we care about the network?
  • 16.
    16 COPYRIGHT © 2015ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Photo:visitoakdaleca.Com Within 3 years, 50% of IT networks will transition from having excess capacity to handle the additional IoT devices to being network constrained with nearly 10% of sites being overwhelmed. Within the next 5 years, more than 90% of all IoT data will be hosted on cloud-based service provider platforms. IDC, December 2014
  • 17.
    17 COPYRIGHT © 2015ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. The network can make or break the IoT experience http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/techzine/iot-internet-of-things-network-can-make-break/ Performance Scalability Manageability Horizontalization Flexible growth Security Interoperability Big data handling
  • 18.
    18 COPYRIGHT © 2015ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Are you ready for this new experience? Fido @connected_collar 3h Your dog needs a walk Inventory @my_suitcase 2h 3 pairs of fresh socks left Time Keeper @Timekeeper 2m Conclude your talk NOW! Mike @ETSI_microphone3 5s The next speaker is ready ;-) Home Discover Activity
  • 19.
    19 COPYRIGHT © 2015ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Photo:http://www.picturesonwalls.com Thought of the day…
  • 20.
    20 COPYRIGHT © 2015ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.