Unbearable Lightness of M2M Forecasting (ETSI 2014)

COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Marc Jadoul ( @mjadoul)
Sophia Antipolis, 10 December 2014
THE UNBEARABLE LIGHTNESS
OF M2M FORECASTING

GOOD MORNING.
HOW WAS YOUR BREAKFAST?
Photo: pictures.4ever.eu
2

BREAKFAST IN 2020
Perfectly baked bread
thanks to the wireless
temperature sensor
implants in the dough.(1)
A connected egg tray tells
you how many eggs you have
left in your smart fridge.(2)(3)
Your cup monitors the
temperature of your tea.(6)
The smart bowl calculates the
calories you’re taking in.(4)
This smart spoon assists
people with hand tremors.(7)
(1) http://www.powerretail.com.au/case-profiles-studies/high-tech-bread/
(2) http://gigaom.com/2013/08/20/podcast-hard-boiled-quirky-and-ge-will-connect-your-eggs-and-crack-open-the-iot-space/
(3) http://www.nbcnews.com/tech/gift-guide/out-milk-lgs-new-smart-fridge-will-let-you-know-n99531
(4) http://www.npr.org/blogs/thesalt/2014/07/15/331402697/calorie-counting-machine-may-make-dieting-easier-in-the-future
(5) http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/10364890/WiFi-kettle-allows-you-to-boil-water-from-bed.html
(6) http://www.instructables.com/id/Smart-Coffer-Cup-Temperature-Reminds-For-Your-Hot-/
(7) http://www.voanews.com/content/smart-spoon-allows-parkinsons-sufferers-to-feed-themselves/1830217.html
The iKettle was switched on
while you were still in bed.(5)
3

A TYPICAL FAMILY HOME
COULD CONTAIN MORE THAN
500 SMART DEVICES BY 2022
Gartner, September 2014
4

5
THE NEXT STEP IN INTERNET EVOLUTION
Pre-internet
era
Internet of
CONTENT
Internet of
SERVICES
Internet of
PEOPLE
Internet of
THINGS
H2H WWW WEB 2.0 SOCIAL M2M
+ + + +

6
Source: Gartner, July 2014
Internet of Things

Source: gsmaintelligence.com
Image: http://gizmodo.com/a-map-of-every-device-in-the-world-thats-connected-to-t-1628171291
BY THE END OF 2014 THE NUMBER OF
MOBILE-CONNECTED DEVICES WILL HAVE
EXCEEDED THE WORLD’S POPULATION
AND THIS IS JUST A BEGINNING …
7

8
212 BILLION
‘THINGS’ IN 2020
26 BILLION
‘UNITS’ BY 2020
$8.9 TRILLION
GLOBAL REVENUES
BY 2020
$300 BILLION
SERVICES REVENUES
IN 2020
$1.9 TRILLION
GLOBAL ECONOMIC
VALUE IN 2020
Source: IDC, October 2013 Source: Gartner, March 2014
THE ‘INTERNET OF THINGS’ IN 2020: IT’S GOING TO BE
BIIIIIG, THOUGH NOBODY REALLY KNOWS HOW BIG…

9
ARE THEY REALLY TALKING ABOUT THE SAME TOPIC?
25. A scenario in which everyday objects connect and
share data with applications and with each other.

10
Image: http://www.bobmcmahon.com
DID THEY COUNT EVERYTHING?

11
(1) http://www.m2mnow.biz/2013/05/11/11795-container-tracking-systems-installed-base-grew-54-in-2012-says-new-berg-insight-report/
(2) http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2014/09/schiphol_airport_tests_cameras.php
(3) http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-25197917
(4) http://www.psfk.com/2014/01/true-love-bra.html
(5) http://www.idownloadblog.com/2014/01/06/ces-2014-kolibree-toothbrush/
(6) http://smartinteractionlab.com/whistle-connected-dog-collar/
(7) http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/baidu-launches-smart-chopsticks-to-detect-contaminated-food-9711478.html
(5)
(6)
(3, 4)
ALL ‘THINGS’ GREAT AND SMALL
(7)
(1)
(2)

12
THE SHORT TAIL VS. THE LONG TAIL
# Applications
KILLER APPS
THE LONG TAIL
SEGMENT/INDUSTRY/
BUSINESS SPECIFIC
Assets/Application

13
1 car
Cellular data
Bluetooth
Wi-Fi
Homelink
TPMS
(GPS)
5 connections
100 sensors
Air–fuel ratio,
blind spot monitor,
crankshaft position,
curb feeler, defect
detector, engine
coolant temperature,
Hall effect sensor,
manifold absolute
pressure, mass flow,
oxygen, parking
sensors, radar gun
detector, speed,
throttle position,
tire-pressure, torque,
transmission fluid
temperature, turbine
speed, variable
reluctance, water-in-fuel,
water-on-windshield,
wheel
speed, etc. etc.
WHAT ARE THEY ACTUALLY COUNTING?
Photo: motortrend.com

14
A COMPLEX AND DIVERSE ECOSYSTEM
Based upon: Matt Turk, Sutian Dong, FirstMark Capital, 2013
YOU
ARE
HERE

15
ARPD/ARPC AT A FRACTION OF
TRADITIONAL VOICE & DATA ARPU

16
POSSIBLE ROLES OF A SERVICE PROVIDER
Connectivity &
SIM wholesale
M2M onboarding, AAA, device
management, analytics, security, …
Fostering applications to increase network utilization.
Integrating ‘things’ into applications
End-to-end solutions for verticals and consumers.
NETWORK
+ TRANSPORT
M2M PLATFORM
DEV. PORTAL
+ STOREFRONT
APPLICATION
HOSTING

17
Photo: visitoakdaleca.com
WHY SHOULD WE CARE ABOUT STANDARDS?

18
EXPERIENCE ‘BY DESIGN’
manageability
performance
scalability
interoperability
security
APIs
virtualization
FCQ
€

19
ARE YOU READY FOR
THIS NEW EXPERIENCE?
Fido @connected_collar 3h
Your dog needs a walk
Inventory @my_suitcase 2h
3 pairs of fresh socks left
Coffee @percolator3288 12m
Coffee will be ready at 10:45
Time Keeper @Timekeeper 2m
Conclude your talk NOW!
Mike @ETSI_microphone3 5s
The next speaker is ready ;-)
Home Discover Activity

20
KEEP
CALM
AND
READ
THIS
AT HOME http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/techzine/
internet-of-things-benefit-standardization/

21
KEEP
CALM
AND
REPLAY
THESE
WEBINARS http://www.onem2m.org/btchannel.cfm

Photo: http://www.picturesonwalls.com
22
THOUGHT OF THE DAY…

marc.jadoul@alcatel-lucent.com

Unbearable Lightness of M2M Forecasting (ETSI 2014)

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Unbearable Lightness of M2M Forecasting (ETSI 2014)