This lesson plan teaches students about making accurate predictions based on large data sets over multiple days: - Day 1: Students make predictions about classmates based on small samples and learn these may be inaccurate. - Day 2: Students collect and analyze data on M&M colors to calculate averages and see how individual results compare. - Day 3: Students independently research a topic, make a prediction, collect data, and report their findings. - Day 4: Students finalize their reports and some present their work. - Day 5: Students predict and collect data on four-leaf clovers in different plots of land to understand how more data yields better predictions. They reflect on not judging things based on limited

1. Cassaundra Hisch
EDUC373.002
D. Sandrick
October 28, 2009
Test: Grade 5 Standards
Lesson Plan for Indicator 5.5.8: Realize and explain that predictions may be more accurate if
they are based on large collections of objects or events.
Monday
What?: Have the students make a generalization about the students in the classroom. For
example, having them predict the average number of siblings that a student has or inferring
what hair color the majority of school has based on the classroom majority. Discuss whether the
sample size is small or large and whether that matters. To illustrate the point, ask a small number
of students (two or three) how many siblings they have. If possible pick students that you know
have the sameveryone has two siblings. Would that be correct? How could you make a better
prediction? This also covers indicator 5.5.10 (Explain the danger in using only a portion of the
data collected to describe the whole).
Interpersonal -group work and interaction
Logical-reasoning about predictions
Why?: After instruction the students will be able to (AITSWBAT): evaluate whether predictions
are good based on sample sizes.
Tuesday
What?: Using M&M candies, students will observe the number of blue M&M's in the bag by
classifying them by color. Students will then calculate what percentage of their bag was blue
using mathematics. They will take the number of blue candies divided by the whole number of
candies. This will give them the decimal equivalent of a percentage. They will measure this as a
percentage. Students will communicate their percentages to the class, which will be converted to
a bar graph. The class will average the percentages to find the average percentage of blue
M&M's. The students will discuss whether their bags were representative of the average and
why.
Interpersonal-group work and interaction
Visual-bar graph
Logical- mathematical calculations
Why?: AITSWBAT: analyze how the sample size may change what their prediction would be.
Wednesday
What?: Students will have to research their own interests to make a prediction. They will use the
internet to research a topic or question. First students will be asked to make a prediction, then
collect data to see if they made a correct prediction. Students may also choose to create a survey,
which they will print out and give to other students. Students will have to decide what number is
a good sample size. Students will have to compile this data into a short powerpoint or written
report. This may need to be completed at home for homework, although some time on Thursday
will be given to finish up. During independent working time, music may be played to help
students concentrate.

2. Intrapersonal- students decide on a topic of interest to themselves and are given time for
independent work
Musical-music can be played while students work independently, which can help some
concentrate better.
Why?: AITSWBAT demonstrate that they know that sample size influences whether predictions
are correct.
Thursday
What?: Students will continue to work on the powerpoints or reports to make any finishing
touches. All powerpoints and reports will be submitted to the teacher. Some students will have
the opportunity to communicate their findings with the class.
Linguistic-sharing their findings with the class and turning in written reports
Interpersonal- Sharing with the class
Why?: AITSWBAT share their predictions and whether or not they were correct as evidenced by
the completed powerpoint presentation or written report. The reports will be assessed for
completeness and understanding of the concept.
Friday
What?: (Friday's activity may be moved to Wednesday and the powerpoints would be moved to
Thursday and Friday, if the weather requires it.) We will further explore the fact that predictions
will be more accurate if they are based on large samples by predicting and collecting data on the
percentage of four leaf clovers. Beforehand, the teacher should mark off sections of grass for
students to search for four leaf clovers. Before going out, students should make a prediction.
The predictions should be made based on how many four leaf clovers are present in one square
foot of grass. Hopefully there is sufficient grassy areas around the playground. Students should
work in groups and comb through their square foot area of grass for four leaf clovers. Students
should record their data as they find them. After a set time, or after they have thoroughly checked
their areas, students should regroup and compile a list of how many they found and how many
total square feet were covered. Once again, they will be able to see that by having a larger
collection of data, they can have a better prediction. After this, the students will be asked to write
a journal entry (language arts) discussing how making predictions based on small collections is
similar to stereotyping a gender or race based on the behaviors of a few people. This will be
collected on Monday.
Kinesthetics- students are able to get out of the classroom and move around outside
Natural- students are outside in nature
Interpersonal-students are working together
Why?: AITSWBAT explain how predictions are affected by collection size as. Students' journal
entries will be assessed to check for understanding of the danger of judging something based on
incomplete evidence or data.