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B Heard




Not to be used, posted, etc. without my expressed permission. B Heard
Some Things to Remember




 Not to be used, posted, etc. without my expressed permission. B Heard
This data shows the Lab Report scores of 8 selected
  students and the number of hours they spent
  preparing their Statistics Lab Report. 40 was the
  highest score the student could make.
(hours, scores),
(3,34), (2,30), (4,38), (4,40), (2,32), (3,33), (4,37), (5,39)




             Not to be used, posted, etc. without my expressed permission. B Heard
1) Understand the equation of the regression line for
   the given data.
2) What does the correlation coefficient “r” for the data
   mean?
3) Predict a Lab Report Score for someone who spent
   one hour on it.




            Not to be used, posted, etc. without my expressed permission. B Heard
Predicted score for someone who spent one hour would be:
y = 3.158(1) +24.71
y = 27.9 or I would say 28 since all scores are in whole numbers
“r” of 0.9248 means strong positive correlation.
             Not to be used, posted, etc. without my expressed permission. B Heard
Stronger Negative Correlation                     Stronger Positive Correlation



-1                                           0                                         +1


                                        “r”
               Not to be used, posted, etc. without my expressed permission. B Heard
 Know the difference between Binomial and Poisson
 Remember we talked about these in a previous lecture!
 A State Trooper notes that at a certain intersection, an
  average of three cars run the red-light per hour. What
  is the probability that the next time he is there exactly
  two cars run the red-light?

Poisson with average of 3. want P(2)
  P(2) = .2240 (Use Minitab) and also be able to find
  probability values for less than, less than or equal
  to, etc.
 The probability that a house in a neighborhood has a dog is
  40%. If 50 houses in the neighborhood are randomly
  selected what is the probability that one (or a certain
  number) of the houses will have a dog?

a. Is this a binomial experiment?

b. Use the correct formula to find the probability that, out of
  50 houses, exactly 22 of the houses will have dogs. Show
  your calculations or explain how you found the probability.
Answer Follows
a) Fixed number of independent trials, only two possible
  outcomes in each trial {S,F} (dog or not), probability of
  success is the same for each trial, and random variable
  x counts the number of successful trials. So YES it is.

b) n = 50; p = .40 = P(success) = house has a dog
    We want P(22) --> P(22) = .0959 (Use Minitab)
  (Also be able to find “at least” , “at most”, “or” etc.
 Know basic terms like mean, median, mode, standard
    deviation, variance, range etc.
   Mean is the “average”
   Median is the “center”
   Mode is the “most frequently occurring”
   Know the variance is the standard deviation squared
   Know the standard deviation is the square root of the
    variance
 Be able to understand the normal distribution and
  how it relates to the mean, standard deviation,
  variance, etc.
 For example, I did an analysis and found the mean
  number of failures was 7 and the standard deviation
  was 1.5. Answer the two questions below.
 How many standard deviations is 10 from the mean?
  10 – 7 = 3, 3/1.5 = 2 (your answer)
 How many standard deviations is 6.25 from the mean?
  6.25 – 7 = - .75, - .75/1.5 = -0.5 (your answer)
Be able to use the Standard Normal Distribution Tables or
Minitab to find probability values and z scores.
Examples:
 Find the following probability involving the Standard
   Normal Distribution. What is P(z<1.55)?
.9394 (Use Minitab)
 Find the following probability involving the Standard
   Normal Distribution. What is P(z > -.60)?
1 – 0.2743 = 0.7257 (Use Minitab)
 The mean number of teachers in a Virginia public
 school is said to be 42.7. A hypothesis test is
 performed at a level of significance of 0.05 and a P-
 value of .06. How would you interpret this?
 The mean number of teachers in a Virginia public
  school is said to be 42.7. A hypothesis test is
  performed at a level of significance of 0.05 and a P-
  value of .06. How would you interpret this?
 Fail to reject the null hypothesis, because there is not
  enough evidence to reject the claim that there are 42.7
  teachers per school.
 I am buying parts for a new project. I have two
 vendors to choose from. Vendor X has a customer
 satisfaction rating of 8.7 with a standard deviation of
 1.9. Vendor Y has a customer satisfaction rating of 8.6
 with a standard deviation of 0.2 Which should I
 choose?
 I am buying parts for a new project. I have two
  vendors to choose from. Vendor X has a customer
  satisfaction rating of 8.7 with a standard deviation of
  1.9. Vendor Y has a customer satisfaction rating of 8.6
  with a standard deviation of 0.2 Which should I
  choose?
 I think I would go with Vendor Y who seems to be
  more consistent (smaller standard deviation)
 I am playing a game that has four different outcomes
 in terms of how much money I could win. Determine
 my expected gain if I played this game 5 times.

 Outcomes/Probability $10 (10%), $6 (20%), $2 (30%),
 $1 (40%)
 I am playing a game that has four different outcomes
  in terms of how much money I could win. Determine
  my expected gain if I played this game 5 times.

 Outcomes/Probability $10 (10%), $6 (20%), $2 (30%),
  $1 (40%)

 10(0.10)+6(0.20) + 2(0.30) + 1 (0.40) = $3.20 (this would
  be the expected gain for playing the game once)
 For five times it would be 5($3.20) = $16.00
How would you describe
 the following stem and
 leaf plot?
2|   5
3|   2
4|   1899
5|   13668
6|   0227
          Not to be used, posted, etc. without my expressed permission. B Heard
How would you describe
 the following stem and
 leaf plot?
2|   5
3|   2
4|   1899
5|   13668
6|   0227
          Not to be used, posted, etc. without my expressed permission. B Heard
 Determine the minimum required sample size if you
 want to be 90% confident that the sample mean is
 within 5 units of the population mean given sigma =
 8.4. Assume the population is normally distributed.
 Determine the minimum required sample size if you
  want to be 90% confident that the sample mean is
  within 5 units of the population mean given sigma =
  8.4. Assume the population is normally distributed.
n = (Zc*sigma/E)^2
  = [(1.645 * 8.4)/ 5]^2 = (2.7636)^2
  = 7.64
  = 8 (always round up sample sizes)
 Scores on an exam for entering a military training
 program are normally distributed, with a mean of 60
 and a standard deviation of 12. To be eligible to enter, a
 person must score in the top 15%. What is the lowest
 score you can earn and still be eligible to enter?
mu = 60; sigma = 12
 we want top 15% or an area greater than 1 - .15 or .85
 z = 1.04 ---> x = (1.04)(12) + 60 = 72.48 or
 need a score of 73 (Round it up)
 An airplane has 50 passengers. There are 4 celebrities
 on the plane. How many ways can a reporter choose 3
 of these passengers at random and not pick a
 celebrity?
 An airplane has 50 passengers. There are 4 celebrities
 on the plane. How many ways can a reporter choose 3
 of these passengers at random and not pick a
 celebrity?

 This is a Combination 46C3 which is 15180
 The average (mean) monthly grocery cost for a family of 4
  is $600. The distribution is known to be “normal” with a
  standard deviation = 60. A family is chosen at random.

  a) Find the probability that the family’s monthly grocery
  cost purchases will be between $550 and $650.

  b)Find the probability that the family’s monthly grocery
  cost purchases will be less than $700.

 c) What is the probability that the family’s monthly grocery
 cost purchases will be more than $630?
Answers follow
Using Tables or Minitab (I used Minitab to show
 you some previously):
 a) P(550 < x < 650) = 0.5953
 b) P(x < 700) =.9522
 c) P(x > 630) = .3085
As an instructor, I have been collecting data to see if I
 can model a student’s performance on a standardized
 entrance exam. I determined that the multiple
 regression equation y = -250+ 16a + 30b, where a is a
 student’s grade on a quiz, b is the student’s rank on a
 class list, gives y, the score on a standardized entrance
 exam. Based on this equation, what would the
 standardized entrance exam score for a student who
 makes a 7 on the quiz and had a ranking of 10 be?



            Not to be used, posted, etc. without my expressed permission. B Heard
y = -250+ 16a + 30b
Substitute 7 for “a” and 10 for “b”
  y = -250+ 16*7 + 30*10
  y = -250 + 112 + 300
  y = -250 + 412
  y = 162




             Not to be used, posted, etc. without my expressed permission. B Heard
Be able to write the null and alternative hypothesis and
 know which is the claim.




            Not to be used, posted, etc. without my expressed permission. B Heard
 A Pizza Delivery Service claims that it will get its
  pizzas delivered in less than 30 minutes. A random
  selection of 49 service times was collected, and their
  mean was calculated to be 28.6 minutes. The standard
  deviation was 4.7 minutes. Is there enough evidence to
  support the claim at alpha = .10. Perform an
  appropriate hypothesis test, showing each important
  step. (Note: 1st Step: Write Ho and Ha; 2nd
  Step: Determine Rejection Region; etc.)
 Answer following chart
Ho: mu >= 30 min.
Ha: mu < 30 min. (claim). Therefore, it is a left-tailed test.
n=49; x-bar=28.6; s=4.7; alpha=0.10
Since alpha = 0.10, then the critical z value will be zc = -1.28
since n>30 then s can be used in place of sigma.
Standardized test statistic z = (x-bar - mu)/(s/sqrt(n))
                          z = (28.6-30)/(4.7/sqrt(49))
                          z = -2.085
since -2.085 < -1.28, we REJECT Ho.
That is, at alpha = 0.10, There is enough evidence to support the
Pizza Delivery Service’s claim.
(p-value method could have also been used)
 A polling company wants to estimate the average
 amount of contributions to their candidate. For a
 sample of 100 randomly selected contributors, the
 mean contribution was $50 and the standard deviation
 was $8.50.

 (a) Find a 95% confidence interval for the mean
 amount given to the candidate

  (b) Interpret this confidence interval and write a
  sentence that explains it.
 Answer Follows
(a). Since sample size = n = 100> 30, we can use a z-
  value. For a 95% confidence level, z-value = 1.96. Also,
  sample mean = xbar = 50; population standard
  deviation is estimated by sample standard deviation
  (since n > 30) = s = 8.50
E = z * s / sqrt(n) = 1.96 * 8.50/sqrt(100) = 1.666
xbar + E = 50.00 + 1.67 = 51.67
  xbar - E = 50.00 - 1.67 = 48.33
Thus, 95% confidence interval = ($48.33,$51.67)
(b) We are 95% confident that the population mean
  amount contributed is between $48.33 and $51.67
 The failure times of a component are listed in
 hours. {100, 95, 120, 190, 200, 200,280}.
 Find the mean, median, mode, variance, and range.
 Do you think this sample might have come from a
 normal population? Why or why not?
mean = 169.3
median =190
mode = 200
variance = 4553.6
range = 185
Doubtful it came from a normal, compare mean, median,
mode, etc.
Drop by and see me on
      Facebook

http://www.facebook.com/statcave

You can find a link to these charts
              there!

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Week8finalexamlivelecture april2012

  • 1. B Heard Not to be used, posted, etc. without my expressed permission. B Heard
  • 2. Some Things to Remember Not to be used, posted, etc. without my expressed permission. B Heard
  • 3. This data shows the Lab Report scores of 8 selected students and the number of hours they spent preparing their Statistics Lab Report. 40 was the highest score the student could make. (hours, scores), (3,34), (2,30), (4,38), (4,40), (2,32), (3,33), (4,37), (5,39) Not to be used, posted, etc. without my expressed permission. B Heard
  • 4. 1) Understand the equation of the regression line for the given data. 2) What does the correlation coefficient “r” for the data mean? 3) Predict a Lab Report Score for someone who spent one hour on it. Not to be used, posted, etc. without my expressed permission. B Heard
  • 5. Predicted score for someone who spent one hour would be: y = 3.158(1) +24.71 y = 27.9 or I would say 28 since all scores are in whole numbers “r” of 0.9248 means strong positive correlation. Not to be used, posted, etc. without my expressed permission. B Heard
  • 6. Stronger Negative Correlation Stronger Positive Correlation -1 0 +1 “r” Not to be used, posted, etc. without my expressed permission. B Heard
  • 7.  Know the difference between Binomial and Poisson  Remember we talked about these in a previous lecture!
  • 8.  A State Trooper notes that at a certain intersection, an average of three cars run the red-light per hour. What is the probability that the next time he is there exactly two cars run the red-light? Poisson with average of 3. want P(2) P(2) = .2240 (Use Minitab) and also be able to find probability values for less than, less than or equal to, etc.
  • 9.  The probability that a house in a neighborhood has a dog is 40%. If 50 houses in the neighborhood are randomly selected what is the probability that one (or a certain number) of the houses will have a dog? a. Is this a binomial experiment? b. Use the correct formula to find the probability that, out of 50 houses, exactly 22 of the houses will have dogs. Show your calculations or explain how you found the probability. Answer Follows
  • 10. a) Fixed number of independent trials, only two possible outcomes in each trial {S,F} (dog or not), probability of success is the same for each trial, and random variable x counts the number of successful trials. So YES it is. b) n = 50; p = .40 = P(success) = house has a dog We want P(22) --> P(22) = .0959 (Use Minitab) (Also be able to find “at least” , “at most”, “or” etc.
  • 11.  Know basic terms like mean, median, mode, standard deviation, variance, range etc.  Mean is the “average”  Median is the “center”  Mode is the “most frequently occurring”  Know the variance is the standard deviation squared  Know the standard deviation is the square root of the variance
  • 12.  Be able to understand the normal distribution and how it relates to the mean, standard deviation, variance, etc.  For example, I did an analysis and found the mean number of failures was 7 and the standard deviation was 1.5. Answer the two questions below.  How many standard deviations is 10 from the mean? 10 – 7 = 3, 3/1.5 = 2 (your answer)  How many standard deviations is 6.25 from the mean? 6.25 – 7 = - .75, - .75/1.5 = -0.5 (your answer)
  • 13. Be able to use the Standard Normal Distribution Tables or Minitab to find probability values and z scores. Examples:  Find the following probability involving the Standard Normal Distribution. What is P(z<1.55)? .9394 (Use Minitab)  Find the following probability involving the Standard Normal Distribution. What is P(z > -.60)? 1 – 0.2743 = 0.7257 (Use Minitab)
  • 14.  The mean number of teachers in a Virginia public school is said to be 42.7. A hypothesis test is performed at a level of significance of 0.05 and a P- value of .06. How would you interpret this?
  • 15.  The mean number of teachers in a Virginia public school is said to be 42.7. A hypothesis test is performed at a level of significance of 0.05 and a P- value of .06. How would you interpret this?  Fail to reject the null hypothesis, because there is not enough evidence to reject the claim that there are 42.7 teachers per school.
  • 16.  I am buying parts for a new project. I have two vendors to choose from. Vendor X has a customer satisfaction rating of 8.7 with a standard deviation of 1.9. Vendor Y has a customer satisfaction rating of 8.6 with a standard deviation of 0.2 Which should I choose?
  • 17.  I am buying parts for a new project. I have two vendors to choose from. Vendor X has a customer satisfaction rating of 8.7 with a standard deviation of 1.9. Vendor Y has a customer satisfaction rating of 8.6 with a standard deviation of 0.2 Which should I choose?  I think I would go with Vendor Y who seems to be more consistent (smaller standard deviation)
  • 18.  I am playing a game that has four different outcomes in terms of how much money I could win. Determine my expected gain if I played this game 5 times.  Outcomes/Probability $10 (10%), $6 (20%), $2 (30%), $1 (40%)
  • 19.  I am playing a game that has four different outcomes in terms of how much money I could win. Determine my expected gain if I played this game 5 times.  Outcomes/Probability $10 (10%), $6 (20%), $2 (30%), $1 (40%)  10(0.10)+6(0.20) + 2(0.30) + 1 (0.40) = $3.20 (this would be the expected gain for playing the game once)  For five times it would be 5($3.20) = $16.00
  • 20. How would you describe the following stem and leaf plot? 2| 5 3| 2 4| 1899 5| 13668 6| 0227 Not to be used, posted, etc. without my expressed permission. B Heard
  • 21. How would you describe the following stem and leaf plot? 2| 5 3| 2 4| 1899 5| 13668 6| 0227 Not to be used, posted, etc. without my expressed permission. B Heard
  • 22.  Determine the minimum required sample size if you want to be 90% confident that the sample mean is within 5 units of the population mean given sigma = 8.4. Assume the population is normally distributed.
  • 23.  Determine the minimum required sample size if you want to be 90% confident that the sample mean is within 5 units of the population mean given sigma = 8.4. Assume the population is normally distributed. n = (Zc*sigma/E)^2 = [(1.645 * 8.4)/ 5]^2 = (2.7636)^2 = 7.64 = 8 (always round up sample sizes)
  • 24.  Scores on an exam for entering a military training program are normally distributed, with a mean of 60 and a standard deviation of 12. To be eligible to enter, a person must score in the top 15%. What is the lowest score you can earn and still be eligible to enter? mu = 60; sigma = 12 we want top 15% or an area greater than 1 - .15 or .85 z = 1.04 ---> x = (1.04)(12) + 60 = 72.48 or need a score of 73 (Round it up)
  • 25.  An airplane has 50 passengers. There are 4 celebrities on the plane. How many ways can a reporter choose 3 of these passengers at random and not pick a celebrity?
  • 26.  An airplane has 50 passengers. There are 4 celebrities on the plane. How many ways can a reporter choose 3 of these passengers at random and not pick a celebrity?  This is a Combination 46C3 which is 15180
  • 27.  The average (mean) monthly grocery cost for a family of 4 is $600. The distribution is known to be “normal” with a standard deviation = 60. A family is chosen at random. a) Find the probability that the family’s monthly grocery cost purchases will be between $550 and $650. b)Find the probability that the family’s monthly grocery cost purchases will be less than $700. c) What is the probability that the family’s monthly grocery cost purchases will be more than $630? Answers follow
  • 28. Using Tables or Minitab (I used Minitab to show you some previously): a) P(550 < x < 650) = 0.5953 b) P(x < 700) =.9522 c) P(x > 630) = .3085
  • 29. As an instructor, I have been collecting data to see if I can model a student’s performance on a standardized entrance exam. I determined that the multiple regression equation y = -250+ 16a + 30b, where a is a student’s grade on a quiz, b is the student’s rank on a class list, gives y, the score on a standardized entrance exam. Based on this equation, what would the standardized entrance exam score for a student who makes a 7 on the quiz and had a ranking of 10 be? Not to be used, posted, etc. without my expressed permission. B Heard
  • 30. y = -250+ 16a + 30b Substitute 7 for “a” and 10 for “b” y = -250+ 16*7 + 30*10 y = -250 + 112 + 300 y = -250 + 412 y = 162 Not to be used, posted, etc. without my expressed permission. B Heard
  • 31. Be able to write the null and alternative hypothesis and know which is the claim. Not to be used, posted, etc. without my expressed permission. B Heard
  • 32.  A Pizza Delivery Service claims that it will get its pizzas delivered in less than 30 minutes. A random selection of 49 service times was collected, and their mean was calculated to be 28.6 minutes. The standard deviation was 4.7 minutes. Is there enough evidence to support the claim at alpha = .10. Perform an appropriate hypothesis test, showing each important step. (Note: 1st Step: Write Ho and Ha; 2nd Step: Determine Rejection Region; etc.)  Answer following chart
  • 33. Ho: mu >= 30 min. Ha: mu < 30 min. (claim). Therefore, it is a left-tailed test. n=49; x-bar=28.6; s=4.7; alpha=0.10 Since alpha = 0.10, then the critical z value will be zc = -1.28 since n>30 then s can be used in place of sigma. Standardized test statistic z = (x-bar - mu)/(s/sqrt(n)) z = (28.6-30)/(4.7/sqrt(49)) z = -2.085 since -2.085 < -1.28, we REJECT Ho. That is, at alpha = 0.10, There is enough evidence to support the Pizza Delivery Service’s claim. (p-value method could have also been used)
  • 34.  A polling company wants to estimate the average amount of contributions to their candidate. For a sample of 100 randomly selected contributors, the mean contribution was $50 and the standard deviation was $8.50. (a) Find a 95% confidence interval for the mean amount given to the candidate (b) Interpret this confidence interval and write a sentence that explains it.  Answer Follows
  • 35. (a). Since sample size = n = 100> 30, we can use a z- value. For a 95% confidence level, z-value = 1.96. Also, sample mean = xbar = 50; population standard deviation is estimated by sample standard deviation (since n > 30) = s = 8.50 E = z * s / sqrt(n) = 1.96 * 8.50/sqrt(100) = 1.666 xbar + E = 50.00 + 1.67 = 51.67 xbar - E = 50.00 - 1.67 = 48.33 Thus, 95% confidence interval = ($48.33,$51.67) (b) We are 95% confident that the population mean amount contributed is between $48.33 and $51.67
  • 36.  The failure times of a component are listed in hours. {100, 95, 120, 190, 200, 200,280}. Find the mean, median, mode, variance, and range. Do you think this sample might have come from a normal population? Why or why not? mean = 169.3 median =190 mode = 200 variance = 4553.6 range = 185 Doubtful it came from a normal, compare mean, median, mode, etc.
  • 37. Drop by and see me on Facebook http://www.facebook.com/statcave You can find a link to these charts there!