DOE, Cummins, Eaton and Tech-I-M presentations including fleet survey

1. Future Truck
Over the Horizon

2. Future Truck
Looking Far Over the Horizon:
Fleet Managers’ Assessment
Of
Future Equipment Needs:
2025 and Beyond

3. Presenters
Ken Howden Jeff Seger Tom Stover Paul Menig
DOE Cummins Engine Eaton Tech-I-M
SuperTruck Engine Transmission Fleet
Vehicle Survey

4. SuperTruck Initiative and 21st Century
Truck Partnership
Ken Howden
Director 21st Century Truck Partnership
Vehicle Technologies Office
U.S. Department of Energy

5. Outline
• Background
• 21st Century Truck Partnership
• SuperTruck Initiative

6. Truck Fuel Use Projected to Increase
Source - ExxonMobil 2012 The Outlook for
Energy: A View to 2040
• Commercial transportation energy demand
projected to expand 70% worldwide
(2010-2040)
- World fuel use for trucks will exceed fuel use for
all personal vehicles (2030)
• Fewer fuel/technology options in heavy-duty
- Limited opportunity for electrification (vs. light-
duty)
- Technology hurdles for alternative fuels
• Limited opportunity at present for freight
mode shifts
- Doubling rail intermodal shipments increases
rail freight market share by only 0.3%
Need increased truck fuel efficiency to mitigate these projected increases

7. Truck Research Landscape – Issues
and Needs
FUEL USE
• Projected to increase for trucks
• Need efficiency improvements
• Truck sales are cyclical
SALES
• Unpredictable corporate R&D NEED FOR
funding INVESTMENT IN
• Accelerate
COLLABORATIVE technology
R&D FOR THE development
• HD similar to LD in % of revenue TRUCKING • Provide focus
R&D
invested in R&D, but fewer total INDUSTRY for R&D efforts
dollars invested • Information
exchange
forum
• Regulations impact all areas of
REGS
trucking industry
• Much R&D investment to meet
these regulations

8. 21st Century Truck Partnership
• 21CTP message
– Accelerate introduction of truck and bus technologies
to reduce fuel use, increase fuel diversity, operate
more safely, increase reliability, meet future
emissions standards, and maintain cost effectiveness
• Research partnership between government
and industry
• Regulatory environment informs 21CTP
needs/gaps/ barriers
– 21CTP goals are longer-range/higher risk, and
complement near-term regulatory goals

9. The Partners

10. 21CTP Research Focus Areas
• Engine Systems
• Heavy-Duty Hybrid Systems
• Vehicle Power Demands
• Idle Reduction
• Safety
• Efficient Operations
New technical roadmap document presents goals and objectives for these areas

11. 21CTP and SuperTruck
• National Academy of Sciences conducts periodic
reviews of 21CTP
– Review progress, provide recommendations for future
consideration
– Favorable results from most recent review – continue
partnership, refine goals and objectives
• Defined and implemented a new “SuperTruck”
initiative for improvement of freight efficiency at the
vehicle system level
– Addresses previous NAS recommendations
– Four teams (all 21CTP members)
– Goal of 50% improvement in freight efficiency (ton-mi/gal)
– Received positive feedback on SuperTruck from NAS panel

12. Range of Heavy Vehicle Technologies

13. Class 8 Tractor-Trailer Energy Balance
Energy losses in Class 8 trucks and
Trailer skirts opportunities for efficiency
Gap reduction
improvements
Tractor/trailer integration (major redesign)
Combustion improvements
Highway 21% Turbocompounding
Urban 5% Waste heat recovery
Highway 59%
Urban 58%
Highway 2%
Urban 7%
Electric accessories
APU
Highway 16% Highway 2%
Urban 9% Highway 0% Urban 5%
Urban 16%
New generation wide base single tires Reduced drivetrain friction
Tire compounds, casing, tread Hybridization Automated manual transmissions
Central tire inflation
Heavy-duty trucks use 20% of the fuel consumed in the United States.
Fuel economy improvements in these trucks directly and quickly reduces petroleum consumption

14. SuperTruck Initiative
• Goal: To develop and demonstrate a 50% improvement
in overall freight efficiency on a heavy-duty Class 8
tractor-trailer measured in ton-miles per gallon and
achieve 50% (and showing pathway to 55%) engine
thermal efficiency
• Cooperative R&D Agreement Awards:
– Cummins Inc. with Peterbilt (ARRA Funded)
– Daimler Trucks North America (ARRA Funded)
– Navistar, Inc.
– Volvo Trucks North America

15. Cummins/Peterbilt SuperTruck Team
• Cummins – engine/contract lead
• Modine – cooling module
FUNDING:
• Eaton –transmission
DOE Share $38.8M
• Dana – drivetrain
Contractor Share $42.1M
• Bridgestone – fuel efficient tires
• Alcoa – wheels
• Delphi – solid oxide fuel cell APU
• Bergstrom – eSHVAC
• Garmin – 3D map and display
• Exa – CFD analysis
• Utility Trailer Manufacturing –
trailer
• US Xpress – end user

16. Daimler SuperTruck Team
• DTNA – vehicle development FUNDING:
• Detroit Diesel – powertrain DOE Share $39.6M
• Daimler Research – waste heat Contractor Share $39.6M
• Oregon State University –
composite frame analysis, fuel
efficient routing
• Schneider National – end user
• Wal-Mart – end user
• Great Dane – trailer
• ARC – aerodynamics
• Solar World Industries America
– auxiliary power

17. Navistar SuperTruck Team
• Navistar – principal investigator,
vehicle systems integrator controls FUNDING:
systems, engine & vehicle testing DOE Share $37.3M
• Alcoa – lightweight frame & wheel Contractor Share $51.8M
materials
• AT Dynamics – trailer aerodynamic
devices
• Meritor – hybrid powertrain, axles
• Behr America – cooling systems
• Michelin – low rolling resistance tires
• TPI – composite material structures
• Wabash National – trailer technologies
• Argonne National Lab – hybrid drive
simulation and controls & battery
testing
• Lawrence Livermore National Lab –
aerodynamic testing

18. Volvo SuperTruck Team
• Volvo Technology of America –
Lead
FUNDING:
• Volvo Group Truck Technology – DOE Share $19M
aerodynamics, lightweighting, Contractor Share $19M
auxiliaries
• Volvo Group Powertrain
Engineering – engine,
transmission, axles
• Penn State University – engine
simulation and testing
• Grote - lighting
• Freight Wing - aerodynamics
• University of California Los
Angeles – Rankine waste heat
recovery simulation
• Ricardo, Inc. – Rankine system
integration
• Hendrickson - suspension
• Meritor - brakes

19. Current SuperTruck Project Status
• Teams are approaching the midpoint of their 4 to 5
year projects
– All teams on track to meet 50% engine efficiency goal
– One team demonstrated 51% engine efficiency in a
laboratory setting
– Aerodynamic improvements and weight reduction
have demonstrated freight efficiency improvement of
greater than 20%
– All teams expect to exceed the 50% freight efficiency
improvement goal based on prototype vehicle
evaluation completed to date

20. Summary
• 21st Century Truck Partnership provides a forum
for industry and government participants to identify
technical gaps and barriers, develop goals and
synergize technology development.
• SuperTruck Initiative combines government and
industry resources to develop technical solutions
for Class 8 truck freight efficiency that are
innovative and suitable for commercialization.

21. Diversified Global Power Leader
Engines Power Components Distribution
Generation
Four Complementary Businesses
Future Trends in Fuel Efficiency
Jeff Seger, Executive Director Cummins Inc.

22. Evolution of Technology
New Technologies
NOx, PM CO2
Selective Catalytic
Reduction
Diesel Particulate
Filter
Cooled Exhaust
Gas Recirculation
Electronic Fuel
Systems
Aftercooling
22
1990 2000 2010 2020

23. Component Technology Integration
Air Handling
& EGR
Combustion
Fuel Aftertreatment (AT)
Systems
Electronic Controls
Waste Heat Recovery
23

24. Looking Ahead
Waste Heat
Base Engine
Recovery
Powertrain
Aftertreatment
& Hybrids
24

25. Technologies for 50% Engine Thermal Efficiency
Base Engine & Aftertreatment SuperTruck Efficiency Improvement Results
 Piston bowl size & shape
 Calibration optimization
 Lower dP EGR loop
 Turbocharger efficiency
 AfterTreatment Efficiency
Parasitic Reductions
 Variable flow lube pump
 Cylinder kit friction
 Cooling & fuel pump power
WHR system
 EGR, Exhaust, Recuperator
 Turbine Expander
 Low GWP Refrigerant
25

26. Transmission Integration
• Partner with all transmission suppliers in the industry
• Technology Trends
– Down-speeding the engine
– Weight Reduction
– Increased data communication
26

27. Hybrids Waste Heat
Recovery
Fuel Economy Benefit
Frequent Seldom
Duty Cycle
Start/Stop Start/Stop
27

28. Energy Balance and WHR Sources
Brake
Power
(42%)
Fuel Energy(100%)
Friction/
Misc Losses
(8%)
Heat
Transfer
(24%)
Exhaust
Energy
(26%)
Engine Cooling
Quality
Waste
Low
Heat
80-100o C
Charge Air Cooling
20-60o C
Waste
Cooled EGR
Heat
200-750o C
Tailpipe Exhaust
200-600o C
Energy balance of engine shows that EGR and Exhaust gas stream energy are the primary
sources for energy recovery. 28

29. Waste Heat Recovery (Line Haul)
Pump
Working
Fluid
–
Closed
Cycle
Boiler
/
Superheater
Exhaust
/
EGR
Waste
Heat
Waste
Heat
Power
Turbine
AddiConal
Power
/Expander
Condenser
Waste
Heat
29

30. WHR: Projected Customer Savings
Projected DF2
$6,500
Price $ / gallon
$4.25
$6,000
$4.50
$4.75
$5.00
Savings per year for the
$5,500
$5.25
Customer ($)
$5,000
$4,500
$4,000
$3,500
$3,000
3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5%
30 WHR Fuel Economy Benefits

31. Vehicle Integration
WHR
EGR Heat Exchanger
WHR
Recuperator
WHR
Condensor
WHR Exhaust
Heat Exchanger Exhaust
Aftertreatment
31

32. Powertrains of 2025
• Fearless Forecasts
• Technology Trends
• Vendor’s View
Tom Stover
Chief Technology Officer
Eaton Vehicle Group
Confidential and Proprietary, © 2013, Eaton Corporation

33. Fearless Forecasts
Make regulations a win-win
Fuel economy improvement of
30-40% over 2010 baseline
Upward pressure on fuel economy
Energy Energy
EPA DOT Competition
Policy Costs
Confidential and Proprietary, © 2013, Eaton Corporation

34. Fearless Forecasts
Natural, Diesel, Fuel Efficiency and Greenhouse gases
NG Diesel Energy
Availability/Cost Efficiency
NG will level with Diesel over time
Competition Profits
Confidential and Proprietary, © 2013, Eaton Corporation

35. Technology Trends:
Trucks get more slippery
Vehicle (Truck/Trailer)
• Aerodynamics
• Rolling Resistance
Cruise power cut by 50%
Confidential and Proprietary, © 2013, Eaton Corporation

36. Technology Trends:
Hybrid Potential
Vehicle (Truck/Trailer)
• Improvements in recoverable-
energy, motors and batteries will
make the hybrid system payback
more attractive - increasing
hybrids in most applications!
F.E.hyb = f(K.E./R.L., HPabs, HPmot, CAPbat, Duty Cycle)
More Bigger, Bigger,
recoverable
-energy + cheaper
motors
+ cheaper
batteries
Confidential and Proprietary, © 2013, Eaton Corporation

37. Technology Trends:
Fuel Economy
Vehicle (Truck/Trailer)
• Aerodynamics
• Advanced Controls
• Rolling Resistance
• Driver Control
• Hybrids
Engine
• Combustion
• Advanced Aftertreament
• Exh. Energy Recovery
• Downspeeding
Confidential and Proprietary, © 2013, Eaton Corporation

38. Technology Trends:
Fuel Economy
Vehicle (Truck/Trailer)
• Aerodynamics
• Advanced Controls
• Rolling Resistance
• Driver Control
• Hybrids
Automation is a fuel economy enabler Engine
• Combustion
• Advanced Aftertreament
• Exh. Energy Recovery
• Downspeeding
Confidential and Proprietary, © 2013, Eaton Corporation

39. Automated Transmissions
Advanced automated transmissions enable fuel economy
Downspeeding Advanced Controls Driver Controls
• Enabled by • GPS • Shift decisions
Automation • Traffic density • Vehicle dynamics
• Shift performance is • V2V • Power demand
critical • V2I • Safety
Confidential and Proprietary, © 2013, Eaton Corporation

40. A Supplier’s View:
• The independent suppliers have:
– Scale
– Ability to invest
– Strong partnerships
– Proven integration skill
• We continue to provide optimized
business solutions to our customers!
Confidential and Proprietary, © 2013, Eaton Corporation

41. Paul Menig

42. Survey Timeline
• 2012
– Q2 Development
– Q3 Pilot
– Q4 Approval and start
• 2013
– Q1 Initial completion and first results
– Q2 Start of interviews and continued survey
– Q4 SAE ComVec Executive Panel
• 2014
– Q1-4 Write position papers
• 2015
– Q1 Future Truck position papers published

43. Survey Overview
• 22 Categories – bumper to trailer tail lights
• 4 parts
– Part 1 November 2012 75 respondents
– Part 2 December 2012 57 respondents
– Part 3 January 2013 43 respondents
– Part 4 February 2013 39 respondents
• Request fleets to participate in all 4 parts

44. Respondent Overview
Purchasing
Other
9%
Position
13%
Time in Industry
<10 years
Maintenance 5%
78%
10-19 years
13%
20-24 years
21% >25 years
61%

45. Fleet Overview
Tractors Trucks
100-250
3%
>250
<10
>1000 5%
8%
15% 50-100
500-1000 8%
5%
10-50
11%
10-100 Trailers
35%
<10
100-500
<10 73%
37% >1000 8%
16%
500-1000
6%
10-100
28%
100-500
42%

46. Driver Type
Company Owner/Operator
>1000
500-1000
4%
1%
<10
>1000 8%
16% 100-500
500-1000 12%
6%
10-100
28% 10-100
17%
<10
66%
100-500
42%

48. Basis for Statements
• Usage percentage based on >50% of respondents
• Other numbers, > 50% of respondents
– Absolutely Much more
– Most Likely More
– Probably About the same
– Maybe Less
– No Much Less
Likely = Absolutely + Most Likely > 50% of Respondents

49. Engine and Under Hood
• 13 Liter Engine with 401-450HP
• Oil change interval > 60,000 miles
• Electric power steering likely
• > 25% usage of computer controlled air
compressor
• > 9 mpg

50. Hybrids & Alternative Fuels
• Diesel/electric hybrids, CNG, LNG
– Each likely to be > 10%, maybe 25% share
• Biofuel above 16%, possibly above 25%
• Could something else power a vehicle?
– 23% say no
• Class 6/7 will stay diesel

51. After Treatment
• SCR a winner, but with only 28%
• 72% believe SCR/EGR or something else
• 40% believe first cleaning in <600K miles
• Waste heat recovery likely
• Vertical exhaust will be gone – NOT true
• Should be smaller

52. Transmissions & Clutches
• Class 8 AMT’s above 60% usage
• Hydraulic automatic transmission increase
– Class 8 above 15%
– Class 6-7 above 70%, rest AMT/manual
• Clutch life > 500K miles

53. Axles and Wheel Ends
• >60% say axles and wheel ends will be lighter
• Aluminum hubs >60% usage
• Metal matrix composite drums >15% usage
• 80% 10 lugs, 20% 8 or something else
• Torque retightening still needed
• Probably reduce 3 wheel systems to 1
• Disc brake usage above 75%

54. Tires
• Wide based singles usage >40%
• Will last > 10-25% more than today
– Steer, drive, tandem, axle, trailer
• Probably have tread depth sensors
• Tractor Tire pressure monitor/control
>80% usage

55. Aerodynamics
• Under vehicle air likely to be managed
• Trailer gap dynamic control likely
• Fifth wheel height dynamic is probable
• No external antennas likely
• Cameras replacing mirrors—maybe
– 42% say likely for hood mounted
– 35% say likely for side view

56. Anti Idle Equipment
• Main engine will not be used
• Plug in unlikely
• Will APU be diesel powered?
– 29% believe battery powered
– 25% believe fuel cell

57. Trailers
• 38% believe in doubles/triples
• 34% believe longer trailers
• 39% believe more trailer axles
• 65% believe separate trailer tracking
• 58% believe lighter weight
• 55% believe more connections to tractor
• Tire pressure monitor/control >80% usage
• Blind spot/backup monitors >40% usage

58. Durability/Reliability
• Today – 54% keep more than 6 years
• Tomorrow – 61% keep more than 6 years
– Less than 4 years will see an increase
• More reliability in 2015
• Windshields will last 1-2 years
Today Tomorrow

59. Cab Interior
• 62% say probably full width cab
• 76% say sleepers likely to have bunks
• Drivers may be more fit than today
• 96% say more electric-powered devices
likely
• Sleepers more than 40% of sales

60. Instrumentation
• 76% say OEM’s likely to integrate & eliminate 3rd
party controls, but will not control fleet
management
• Multiple round gauges may be normal
– >80% expect programmable, flat panel, color, touch
screens
• CB’s still may be used
• 78% say satellite radio likely to be used
• 69% say more steering wheel/column mounted
controls likely

61. Safety & Driver Assistance
• >80% usage of Lane Departure
• >80% radar collision warning/mitigation
• >60% usage of blind spot monitors
• >40% usage of cameras monitoring driver
• Single supplier integration probably
– Yet vertical integration likely

62. Connected Vehicle
• Vehicle to Infrastructure Communications likely
• Toll tags will be replaced, but more toll tags
expected
• Vehicle to Vehicle Communications probably
• Driverless vehicle platooning a maybe
• Wireless communications tractor to trailer likely

63. Electrical/Electronic
• Ethernet likely
• 24 Volts is probable
• More computers and more data links
• Fewer batteries -- maybe
• 77% would likely pay for better connectors
• All LED lighting absolutely

64. Service Tools & Technicians
• Engine repair will be somewhat harder
• Handheld computers likely to replace carts
• Cameras likely to transmit images to
experts
• 36% mostly/all service at dealerships
• Software tools will be mostly integrated

65. Roads & Infrastructure
• More tolled highways/bridges
• Truck HOV lanes likely
• More inner city charges
• Investment to rebuild infrastructure likely
• Ton-mile tax will likely still be with us
• Higher fuel taxes
• Probably on-board weighing replaces stations

66. Regulations
• CAFE for trucks will be harder
• Longer/heavier vehicles likely allowed
• Absolutely more safety regulations
• Likely will allow cameras to replace mirrors
• Wireless roadside inspection likely
• Driver distraction regulations likely
• Standard size/weight in Americas maybe
• Federal laws superceding state probably

67. Fleet Management
• OEM’s maybe will control
• More toll tags likely
– Tolls paid by system likely
• Highly likely to provide driver feedback on
fuel economy/safety
• Off duty entertainment and connection to
friends and family likely
• Navigation with traffic and re-routing
absolutely

68. Logistics & Shippers
• 60% say likely 9PM to 6AM deliveries
• Intermodal will increase
• Electric grid powered vehicles in cities
maybe
• Some other form of freight movement?
– 21% no, 39% maybe, 40% more positive

69. Parts Availability & Sourcing
• More proprietary parts
• Purchase 10% dealer only, 45% mostly
dealers, 45% dealer and 3rd party
• Service 8% mostly dealer, 79% dealer and
own shop, 13% mostly own shop
• Overnight delivery expected
– If not, then 1 day

70. Next Steps
• Get more fleet participation in survey
• Begin more in depth interviews
– Fleets, Government, OEM’s, Tier-1 Suppliers
• SAE ComVec 2013 Executive Panel
• Get other study groups involved