Portland Economic Outlook for 2022
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Christian Kaylor presentation to Portland ACG January 18, 2022
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Portland Economic Outlook for 2022
- 1. Portland Economic Outlook for 2022 ACG Portland January 2022 Christian Kaylor Christian.R.Kaylor@oregon.gov
- 2. OHSU COVID Forecast January 13th - Oregon www.ohsu.edu/sites/default/files/2022-01/OHSU-COVID-Forecast-1-13-2022.pdf Sept 1 1,150 Dec 25 350 Jan 28 1,653 Feb 28 300
- 5. fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL JOLTS! 11 Million Job Openings Job Openings Labor Turnover Survey November 2021 10.6 Million www.bls.gov/jlt/
- 6. fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS14000012#0 U.S. Teen Unemployment : Q2 2020 : 28.5% Q2 2021 : 10.8%
- 7. Hourly Earnings of Leisure & Hospitality Workers U.S. non supervisory workers – July 2019 to December 2021 Average hourly earnings for leisure and hospitality workers have increased by 16% since December 2020. At $16.97, the average earnings is 5.3% higher than we would expect from the pre- COVID trend. Pre-COVID, wages here were increasing by 4% a year. The last three months, wages have increased at an annual rate of 4%. fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES7000000008 $14.91 $14.66 $16.97 $12 $13 $14 $15 $16 $17 $18
- 9. - 10 Year US Treasury’s at 1.8% In 1985… 10% - 30 Year Mortgage at 3.0% In 1985… 13.9% - Consumer Expenditures up 3.6% from 2 years ago. Adjusted for inflation.
- 10. Prime Age Employment Rate Population Age 25 to 54 : Nov 2019 to Nov 2021 fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LREM25TTUSM156S 78.9% 69.6% 80.5%
- 13. 1,000,000 1,100,000 1,200,000 1,300,000 Jan-20 Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec U.S. trend Portland Portland Metro Employment January 2020 to October 2021 As of November 2021, the Portland region has added 138,400 jobs since the COVID crisis began in early 2020. This job growth represents a recovery of 77% of the jobs lost. The US has recovered 83% of the jobs lost, as of November. 1,200,900 1,062,600 1,242,200
- 14. 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 105% Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Portland Bend Medford Bend, Medford & Portland Metro Employment January 2020 to November 2021 99% 97% 97%
- 15. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 U.S. Portland Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adj – Jan 2020 to Dec 2021 4.1% 13.1%
- 16. Portland Metro Employment Changes April 2019 to April 2020 & April 2020 to November 2021 -55,500 1,900 -19,100 -10,900 -7,200 41,800 6,100 20,900 5,300 11,900 Accommodation and Food Services Transportation & Warehousing Retail Trade Manufacturing Construction April 2020 to Nov 2021 April 2019 to April 2020
- 20. Population Growth by US Metro Region 2010 to 2020 The Portland Metro region grew by 12% in the last decade. Ranking Portland 18th among the 50 largest US Metro regions. Texas, Florida and North Carolina have 8 of the top 11 fastest growing Metros. www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/research/evaluation- estimates/2020-evaluation-estimates/2010s-totals-metro-and-micro-statistical-areas.html -2% -2% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 4% 4% 5% 6% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11% 12% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 17% 18% 19% 19% 19% 20% 20% 20% 20% 23% 25% 33% Pittsburgh Cleveland Rochester Hartford Buffalo Chicago Detroit St. Louis New York Providence Milwaukee Los Angeles Philadelphia Memphis Baltimore Virginia Beach Cincinnati Louisville New Orleans Boston San Jose San Diego Kansas City San Francisco Minneapolis-St. Paul Richmond Sacramento Riverside Indianapolis Miami Washington DC Columbus Portland Oklahoma City Salt Lake City Atlanta Tampa Seattle Denver Jacksonville Las Vegas Nashville Charlotte Houston San Antonio Phoenix Dallas-Ft Worth Orlando Raleigh Austin
- 23. US Fertility Rate 1969-2019 Declined by 40% since 1990 Population Age 65+ 1969-2019 1/6 of US Population in 2020… up from 1/8 in 2007
- 24. fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LFWA64TTUSA647N#0 3.3% 2010’s 11% 2000’s 12% 1990’s 12% 1980’s Working Age Population Population Age 15 to 64 : 1970 to 2020
- 26. Workforce Age Growth by County Population Age 25 to 64 : 2010 to 2019 11% 6% 12% 21% 2% -1% -7% 9% 9% 9% 6% 0% -2% 4% 0% -3% -4% 1% -15% -15% 2% -1% 1%
- 27. -1% 1% 0% 11% 0% -4% -5% 0% 0% 8% -6% -3% -2% 2% -3% -3% -3% -3% -10% -7% -1% 3% Youth Population Growth Population Growth 2010 to 2020 – Age 0 to 17 www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/research/evaluation-estimates/2020-evaluation-estimates/2010s-totals-metro-and-micro-statistical-areas.html
- 29. 170,000 175,000 180,000 185,000 190,000 195,000 200,000 205,000 210,000 215,000 Southern Oregon Employment Coos, Curry, Douglas, Jackson, Josephine & Klamath Counties January 2019 to November 2021 0.7% Growth Last 6 Months Portland Metro 3.5% Growth Last 6 Months