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TMC 2017 Spring Far Horizon Future Truck Final

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Short presentation, with backup ideas, to the Technology and Maintenance Council Spring 2017 meeting. This is the Far Horizon report for the Future Truck Committee.

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TMC 2017 Spring Far Horizon Future Truck Final

  1. 1. TMC Future Truck Far Horizons Spring 2017 GHG 2 IAA Commercial Vehicle in Hannover ATA MC&E, SAE Comvec, and ELD Mandate DOT Connected Vehicle Rules DOT Autonomous Vehicle Guidelines Technology Trending Imagination (Backup Only)
  2. 2. Trucking’s Mission Move Freight S afely E fficiently e X peditiously
  3. 3. GHG 2 Engine—Spark Ignited Friction Reduction Variable Valve Timing Coupled Cam Phasing for Overhead Valve and Single Overhead Camshaft Intake Cam {hasing for Dual Overhead Camshaft Dual Cam Phasing for Dual Overhead Camshaft Engines Variable Valve Lift Discrete Variable Valve Lift Cylinder Deactivation Stoichiometric Gasoline Direct Injection Turbocharging and Downsizing Engine Down Speeding Engine—Combustion Ignited Low Temperature Exhaust Gas Recirculation Combustion System Optimization Model Based Control Turbocharging System Engine Breathing System Engine Parasitic and Friction Reduction Integrated Aftertreatment System Engine Downsizing and Down Speeding Waste Heat Recovery
  4. 4. GHG 2 Aerodynamics Active Grille Shutter Innovative Plastics Complete Vehicle Redesign (SuperTruck I and II) Tires Improved Rolling Resistance Wide Base Singles Tire Pressure Systems Retreaded Tires Transmissions Optimizing Number of Gears and Gear Ratios Gear Efficiencies Shift Strategiess Architectures (AMT, DCT) Hybrid Powertrain Systems Axles Axle Efficiency Gear Ratio Tandem Drive Axle Improvements (6x2) Weight Reduction Material Substitution Synergistic Effects—Reduced Power Demand Variable Speed Limiter Reduced Idling Time Engine Shutdown with Alternate Power Source during Hoteling Idle Control Technologies Tamper-Proof AESS, Tamper-Proof AESS w/ Diesel APU’ Tamper-Proof AESS w.Battery APU, Tamper-Proof AESS w/ Automatic Stop- Start, Tamper-Proof AESS w/ FOH Cold, Main Engine Warm, Adjustable AESS w/ Disel APU, Adjustable AESS w/ Battery APU, Adjustable AESS w/ Atuomatic Stop-Start, Adjustable AESS w/ FOH Cold, Main Engine Warm, Adjustable AESS programmed to 5 minutes Stop Start (different than above?) Neutral Idle Air Conditioning Refrigerant Leakage System Efficiency Solar Control
  5. 5. GHG 2 Other Accessory Improvements Predictive Cruise Control Similar, not exact list for HD Pickups and Vans Mild and Strong Hybrids Electrification Another List for Vocational Vehicles Trailers Aerodynamic Drag Reduction Tire Rolling Resistance Tire Pressure Systems Weight Reduction
  6. 6. Tractors Will Be More Aerodynamic
  7. 7. More Electric, Better Air Conditioning
  8. 8. Super Duper Twoper for 21st Century http://www.navistar.com/navistar/news/ Sept 28, 2016 http://www.volvotrucks.us/about-volvo/news- and-events/high-tech-supertruck-exceeds-goals/ http://social.cummins.com/cummins-partner-peterbilt-supertruck-ii/ http://media.daimler.com/marsMediaSite/en/instance/ko/ Daimler-Trucks-North-America-presents-the-all-new- Freightlin.xhtml?oid=13520926 https://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/vehicle-technologies-office-21st-century-truck-partnership
  9. 9. GHG 2 Summary Huge opportunity for competitive advantage for OEMs Huge opportunity for confusion for fleets Fleets should create their own basket of technologies
  10. 10. IAA 2016 & CES 2017—Electrifying
  11. 11. IAA 2016 Eaton ZF Meritor Daimler Dana BWP Iveco Z Truck Concept Voith Volvo MAN FUSO
  12. 12. In Case You Think It’s All Hot Air
  13. 13. ATA MC&E, SAE ComVec, ELD Mandate
  14. 14. Increasing Feature War ala Engine ECUs
  15. 15. Connected
  16. 16. DOT Connected Vehicle Rules NPRM Issues December 13, 2016 90 Day Comment Period Light Vehicles 10,000 Pounds or Less Start 2 Years after Final Rule 50% Year 1, 75% Year 2, 100% Year 3 Basic Safety Message (BSM) over DSRC Time Location based on defined Vehicle Reference Point (problem for tractors with varying trailer lengths) Longitude, Latitude, Elevation Movement Speed, Heading, Acceleration, Yaw rate (Stability Control coming for truck tractors), path history, path prediction, exterior lights, event flags See SAE J2735 Vehicle Based Motion Indicators Transmission state, steering wheel angle Vehicle Size Optional Data Elements Excluded Data Elements https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/us-dot-advances-deployment-connected-vehicle-technology-prevent-hundreds-thousands
  17. 17. DOT Autonomous Vehicle Guidelines https://www.transportation.gov/AV
  18. 18. 15-Point Safety Assessment •Operational Design Domain: How and where the HAV is supposed to function and operate; • Object and Event Detection and Response: Perception and response functionality of the HAV system; • Fall Back (Minimal Risk Condition): Response and robustness of the HAV upon system failure; • Validation Methods: Testing, validation, and verification of an HAV system; • Registration and Certification: Registration and certification to NHTSA of an HAV system; • Data Recording and Sharing: HAV system data recording for information sharing, knowledge building and for crash reconstruction purposes; • Post-Crash Behavior: Process for how an HAV should perform after a crash and how automation functions can be restored; • Privacy: Privacy considerations and protections for users; • System Safety: Engineering safety practices to support reasonable system safety; • Vehicle Cybersecurity: Approaches to guard against vehicle hacking risks; • Human Machine Interface: Approaches for communicating information to the driver, occupant and other road users; • Crashworthiness: Protection of occupants in crash situations; • Consumer Education and Training: Education and training requirements for users of HAVs; • Ethical Considerations: How vehicles are programmed to address conflict dilemmas on the road; and • Federal, State and Local Laws: How vehicles are programmed to comply with all applicable traffic laws.
  19. 19. Division of Federal and State Responsibility Federal responsibilities include: • Setting safety standards for new motor vehicles and motor vehicle equipment; • Enforcing compliance with the safety standards; • Investigating and managing the recall and remedy of non-compliances and safety-related motor vehicle defects on a nationwide basis; • Communicating with and educating the public about motor vehicle safety issues; and • When necessary, issuing guidance to achieve national safety goals State responsibilities include: • Licensing (human) drivers and registering motor vehicles in their jurisdictions; • Enacting and enforcing traffic laws and regulations; • Conducting safety inspections, when States choose to do so; and • Regulating motor vehicle insurance and liability.
  20. 20. Hype, Adoption, and “The Chasm”
  21. 21. Title
  22. 22. Truck & Transportation Technology Trends NewVehicleorMarket Penetration 0% 15% 100% Years Since First Reports 0 5 10 20 30 Where would you place these items? Cameras Virtual Reality ESC Data standardization Tire Pressure Monitoring Biometrics AMT Radar Collision Warning Autonomous Vehicles Electric Vehicles (Nikola) Wireless ???
  23. 23. Truck & Transportation Technology Trends NewVehicleorMarket Penetration 0% 15% 100% Years Since First Reports 0 5 10 20 30 Recommended Maintenance Practices FutureTruck Position Paper Recommended Design Practices
  24. 24. Cycle Disconnect • Infrastructure takes a long time • Vehicles take a bit less • Consumer electronics take very little • We’ve talked about the disconnect with consumer electronics expectations and passenger cars for decades • We don’t have Apple CarPlay in a truck yet • Pass cars may have V2V required in 2019 • And we expect automated trucks when?
  25. 25. Trucking’s Mission Move Freight S afely E fficiently e X peditiously Thanks!
  26. 26. Imagination
  27. 27. Photo Parts Search OEM CAD/CAE has capability to search “similar” parts Tried searching for universal joint from iPhone photo Results now are disappointing
  28. 28. Amazon Go http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2016/12/05/amazon-go-supermarket-no-checkout-no-cashiers-artificial-intelligence-sensors/94991612/ Apply to rear of trailer as material goes in and out
  29. 29. The Freight Shuttle System: A 21st Century Solution to Freight Transportation Challenges Inland Ports? Platooning/A Vehicles?
  30. 30. Hud, Touch, Augmented, Virtual, Reality • Continental HUD at IAA • Boeing Touch • Augmented • Virtual • LangMekra, WABCO, Continental and several more • Reality • Scania, Freightliner Cascadia (show pictures)
  31. 31. Touch Me
  32. 32. Holographic Lighting http://www.hella.com/hella-com/en/Technology-Products-19-10-2016-12601.html
  33. 33. Imagine a driver wearing gloves that change color when he does something good or bad with the steering wheel
  34. 34. How Fast will an AT (autonomous tractor) go?
  35. 35. Which Lane Is Best? http://www.traffictechnologytoday.com/news.php?NewsID=80087
  36. 36. The Sun Is Shining
  37. 37. Where Is Natural Gas Going?
  38. 38. Imagine
  39. 39. Any Shape You Want
  40. 40. Dynamic Trailer Advertising
  41. 41. License Plates—Change After 125 Years What else? Labelling on door? The rPlate houses a GPS, accelerometer, RF sensors, CAN bus access, storage and is built to withstand all weather and extreme conditions. The rPlate's 6" x 12" display is the same size as a standard state license plate and its anti-reflective screen is legible in all weather conditions.

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