Ciclo: "Envejecimiento y bienestar”. En colaboración con el Grupo de Estudios Población y Sociedad (GEPS) Ron Lesthaeghe Profesor Emérito. Universidad Libre de Bruselas. Madrid, 5 de mayo de 2011

1. The EU in a Global Perspective and the Demographic Challenges associated with the “Second Demographic Transition” Ron Lesthaeghe Gastner-Newman cartogram – proportional to total population size

3. Survivors per 100 000 births with varying life expectancies at birth : From a “neutral” mortality decline to squaring off and pure aging effect

4. The stationary population view: from a neutral mortality decline to pure aging

5. Stable population age structures with constant e0= 80 years, but varying total fertility rates. (1.58 to 2.20) TFR

6. In closed populations that have grown very old as a result of sustained sub-replacement fertility, there will be a CONTINUED shrinkage for 50 years AFTER the restoration of exact replacement fertility The Negative Growth Momentum

10. a positive association between SDT and period total fertility : classic case of split correlation All stronger recuperation countries No or weak recup & late starters Source of plot : Tomas Sobotka, 2008. Interpretation : Ron Lesthaeghe 2008 . 1.50

11. A strong SDT – fertility postponement link SDT vanguard SDT tail Source: T. Sobotka 2008.

12. TROUGH RECUP PTFR(t+30) = A + B1*BaseCTFR(t=0) + B2*TROUGH(t) + B3*RECUP(t) + e Trough = deficit in cumulated CASFR at age 30 compared to base Recup = part of trough recuperated by age 40 Sample= all never communist European countries, baseline = cohort born 1940-44, predicting PTFRs in period 1960-2005. RESULT : baseCTFR only Rsq. = .505, baseCTFR + Trough Rsq= .673, all 3 including Recup then Rsq= .793. Hence : RECUP IS ESSENTIAL . ONLY countries dip below a TFR below 1.5 that have no or weak recuperation. The “Bongaarts’ babies” have remained in his cupboard in a large number of countries, and will stay there for as long as there is no recuperation of fertility after age 30.

13. Cohort Fertility Postponement & Recuperation, Spain. (benchmarks coh40, coh55)

14. SDT and TFRs : inconsistent or double effect ? Self-actualisation, keeping open future. Emancipation: gender equity & better division of labour in family. Organisation & policy aspects re independence of young adults and reduction opportunity costs (child care facilities, schooling, allowances & benefits), housing opportunities. SDT Postponement Recuperation Overall fertility + + _ + Social & Economic constraints: longer education, deregulation labour market etc

15. FAC1_1: SDT – Postponement of Marriage, Parenthood and Overall Fertility, 1995-2001

16. FAC5_1: SDT – Non-conformist Family Formation (Cohabitation, out-of wedlock fertility, single parent household, abortion), 1995-2002

17. The Migration Issue Results of a simulation excercise for the EU-12, 1995 to 2060

18. Population 65+ in EU 15 in 3 Scenarios UN Population Divn. Scenario with constant dependency ratio leads to irrealistic growth and growth waves. xxxxx Note : UN assumes instantaneous drop immigrant fertility level to that of host country – too strong !

19. EU-12 aging if e0=80 and TFR=1.64. 1985 =>2060 growth of immigrant population EU-12 , stock in 1985 + Descendants+ 400 000 newcomers p.a., fertility drops from 4 to 1.64 in 2010 EU-12 Female Pop. Migrant extra female population. 15 9 3 0 3 2 1

20. EU12 nationals + descendants Descendents of foreign mothers but born in EC12 after 1.1.85 Foreign stock of 1985 ( old survivors) and all foreign born after 1.1.85 SCENARIO: everyone e0=80; immigration=400.000 pa.;TFR nationals=1.64, TFR immigrants drops from 4.0 to 1.64 by 2010 Disaggregated projection for EU12 women, 1985-2060

21. Source : D. Coleman

24. Religious composition of the population, example of Spain Dark blue: active Catholic Light blue : Non-active Cath. Green: Islam-Sunni Black: Islam-Sharia Purple: Protestant + other Red : Agnostic (Read outward) Age & Religion Composition, IIASA projections for Spain. 2009, 2019, 2029. Source : Katja Sherbov, Dec 2010

28. BAU BAU= Business as usual

29. ALL CURRENT TFR, MIGR, LF Particip . CURRENT TFR, LF particip, NO MIGR TFR to 1.8 MIGR = 0.5% pa LF partic to high levels Optimistic Combination BAU

30. BAU

31. BAU

34. Future of migration as seen through the SDT perspective. * Migration will continue to gain importance. * Many populations still have high TFRs, and large countries such as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Philippines, Indonesia, Mexico …will still produce a positive population growth momentum for several decades to come. * Several African populations ( lower on AIDS) have very high fertility and are also exhibiting a major growth momentum. * No shortage of areas with high population pressure in the next half century, but older and more typical recruitment areas may have reduced capacities for sending migrants. * Hence : geographical/cultural shifts are likely with respect to areas of origin. * Caveat : migrations can also occur even if sending country has very low fertility ( e.g. Polish, Eastern European migration to EU).

36. Health care expenditure

37. Greenhouse gases emissions.

38. Child mortality

39. IS THERE ENOUGH TO GO AROUND ? In millions, UN Medium projections, 2006 revisions. Total Pop 2005 2050 Increase Europe ( incl Eur. Russia) 731.1 664.1 - 67.0 Turkey 73.0 98.9 +25.9 Philippines 84.6 140.5 +55.9 Bangladesh 135.2 254.1 +118.9 India 1134.4 1658.3 +523.9 Pakistan 158.1 292.2 +134.1 Indian subcontinent +776.9 PR China 1313.0 1408.8 +95.8

42. World Values Studies, Women aged 18-45. 84.10% 89.3 82.9 total % 53 of 63 50 of 56 58 of 70 Total 8of 10 2 of 3 4 of 10 d.Religion 9 of 9 7 of 9 8 of 10 e. Ethics and morality issues 7 of 9 17 of 19 19 of 20 d.Political orientations 9 of 10 na 5 of 5 c.Work characteristics 7 of 9 9 of 9 7 of 9 b.Socialization traits 13 of 16 15 of 16 15 of 16 a.Family and gender items 2002 1994, 2001 1995, 2000 Singapore South Korea Japan expected direction (net effects after controls for age, education, job status) Number of items with effects on postponement of parenthood in

43. Postponmt + weak or no recuperation Postponement + stronger recuperation Less postponement but quantum drop