malthus theory of population , boserup

1. Population theories
by
Malthus,
Boserup and
The Club of Rome

2. Professor & Lawyer
Puttu Guru Prasad
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My Blog: puttuguru.blogspot.in

3. This is said to be achieved when the number of people
working with all the available resources, produces the
highest capital economic return.
Resulting in the highest standard of
living and quality of life.

4. This is said to occur, when there are
too many people relative to the
resources and technology available in
an area, to maintain an adequate
standard of living.

5. This occurrence is said to be when there
are far more resources in an area i.e.
food
production, energy, and
minerals, than can be made use of by
the people living there.

6. Thomas Malthus
• 1766-1834.
• Wrote ‘An essay in the First Principle of population’
first published in 1798
• two hundred years ago his ideas were very
revolutionary and controversial
• World population in 1798 =9 million, now surpassed
6 billion. His essay if often times described as
pessimistic and barbaric, as it predicted nothing
short of a catastrophe for the human race.

7. The Core Principles of Malthus:
¤ Food is necessary for human existence
¤ Human population grows faster than our ability
to produce food
¤ Humans usually don’t limit their population size
voluntarily - “preventive checks” in Malthus’
terminology.

9. Malthus recognised that population if
unchecked, grows at a geometric rate:
1 2 4 8 16 32
However, food only increases at an
arithmetic rate, as land is finite.
1 2 3 4 5 6

10. and therefore he said….
War,
famine,
disease.
Malthusian Catastrophe
TIME
food population

11. CHECKS
Malthus suggested that once this ceiling
(catastrophe) had been reached, further
growth in population would be prevented by
negative and positive checks. He saw the
checks as a natural method of population
control. They can be split up into 3 groups….

12. Negative checks (decreased birth
rate)….
Negative Checks -abstinence/ postponement of
marriage which lowered the fertility rate.
• Malthus favored moral restraint (including late
marriage and sexual abstinence) as a check
on population growth ( but only for the
working and poor classes)

13. Positive checks (increased death
rate)
• Positive Checks were ways to reduce
population size by events such as
famine, disease, war - increasing the
mortality rate and reducing life
expectancy.

14. Preventative Checks: Positive Checks:
Infanticide
Abortion
Delays in marriage
Strict celibacy
Which all would lower
the fertility rate
War
Disease
F a m i n e
Which would increase
the mortality rate and
reduce life expectancy

15. ‘S' Curve - Population Crash
Model

16. Was Malthus right?
• There has been a population explosion
• Africa – repeated famines, wars, food
crisis, environmental degradation, soil
erosion, crop failure and disastrous
floods – so was he right?

17. But…..
• Technological improvements which he
could not have foreseen
• The increased amount of cropland due
to irrigation
• Reduced population growth as countries
move through the DTM (Demographic
Transition Model)

18. The Demographic Transition
Model

19. Developed country
China…

20. Current population: 1,338,612,968
people
Population growth rate:0.655%
Age structure:
0-14 years: 19.8%
15-64 years: 72.1%
65 years and over: 8.1%
Birth rate:
14 births/1,000 population
Death rate:
7.06 deaths/1,000 population

21. The infant mortality rate is 20.25 deaths/1,000 live births
Life expectancy rate for males is 71.61 years and for
females it stands at 75.52 years
There are 700,000 people living with
HIVAIDS, however only 39,000 people died from it in the year
2007.
Only a few other diseases plague the country and the threat
is minimal.
The country is multifaceted and has one of the best
economies in the world.
As such only 2.8% of the population lives below the poverty
line.

22. With the largest population is the world, only 2.8% live
below the poverty line. Diseases are not widespread and
the few are treated effectively. There are no major wars,
or famine, and the economy is booming.
Was Malthus wrong then? One would think that with one
of the largest population food supplies would be strained.
Could China‟s prosperity be related to another theory?

23. The Club of Rome
• Group of industrialists, scientists, economists
and statesmen from 10 developed countries
• Published ‘The Limits to Growth’ in 1972
• Neo Malthusians

24. The Club of Rome – basic
conclusion….
• if industrialization,
pollution, food
production and
resource depletion
continue unchanged,
the limits to growth will
be reached in the next
100 years.
• Sudden and
uncontrollable decline in
both population and
industrial capacity

26. Is the Club of Rome right?
• Don’t panic yet!
• Doesn’t take human dimension sufficiently
into account
• Human race is adaptable and innovative
• Human responses have changed – e.g.
alternative sources of fuel (to replace fossil
fuels), GMO seeds to prevent starvation in
parts of Asia

28. Born 1910-1999
Wrote “The conditions of
agricultural growth” in 1965
It opposed Malthus‟s views on the
matter of population.
It is also viewed as a more
optimistic approach to the issue of
population growth

29. When population growth finds us pressed for food, people find
ways to get more food production out of the land. They
cultivate the land more intensively, they add extra manure,
extra water and improve their crops.
They invent their way out of the Malthusian crisis.
Indeed, the Malthusian trap may even have driven the
development of technology.
She believed that a growth in population would stimulate a
growth in agriculture and technology.

30. Ester Boserup 1965
• Boserup believed people have the resources
of knowledge and technology to increase
food supplies.
• Opposite to Malthus
• more intensive systems and used when the
population grew.
• Demographic pressure promotes innovation
(irrigation, weeding, crop intensification,
better seeds, tools, and techniques).

32. But….
• Boserup admits overpopulation can lead to
unsuitable farming practices which may
degrade the land
• e.g. population pressure as one of the
reasons for desertification in the Sahal region
(so fragile environments at risk)
• Boserup’s theory based on assumption of
‘closed’ society -not the case in reality
(migration)

33. A
Comparison

34. Malthus believed: Boserup believed:
Food supply limits
population size
Population growth
would soon outstrip
food supply.
This would lead to
famine, war, and
disease.
Preventative and
positive checks would
be needed.
With a growth in
population people would
find new ways of
acquiring food.
This would lead to
technological and
agricultural advances.
There would be no need
to reduce population
size.

35. If Boserup was right, then the most
technologically advanced places would be the
ones closest to a Malthusian crisis. This is not so.
As the places with the larger populations and
near starving people, have low tech agriculture.
If Malthus was right, places with large populations
that are still increasing, will eventually surpass
their food supply and become famine and war
stricken. Or would have already done so.

37. Malthus is talking about the potential for a
population to face limiting factors.
Boserup is talking about overcoming those
limits through cultural and technological
advancement.

38. The End