Spatial Analysis to Identify Risk Areas of an Important Animal Disease (Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza) and to Evaluate Current Strategy in Health Surveillance in Europe
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This document describes how spatial analysis was used to identify risk areas for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in Europe and evaluate current health surveillance strategies. Logistic regression and co-kriging models were developed using data on HPAI cases, wetlands, poultry density, and temperature. Risk maps identified high-risk areas and hotspots. The models also showed that current surveillance sampling was not well matched to risk, missing some high-risk areas. Spatial analysis is a useful tool for targeting surveillance to areas most likely to benefit from control measures. This can help reduce health costs and improve prevention and control of animal diseases.
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Spatial Analysis to Identify Risk Areas of an Important Animal Disease (Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza) and to Evaluate Current Strategy in Health Surveillance in Europe
- 1. Spatial analysis to identify risk areas of an important animal disease (Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza) and to evaluate current strategy in health surveillance in Europe Irene Iglesias iglesias@inia.es Marta Martínez Ana de la Torre Mª Jesús Muñoz JM Sánchez-Vizcaíno (CISA-INIA UCM)
- 2. Animal diseases control Affected animals and.....: Trade in animal products Vaccines Control of disease: loss of livestock, compensation, health costs Public confidence ......
- 3. Animal diseases control Tuberculosis Zoonotics Salmonella Avian Influenza …
- 4. Animal diseases control Affected countries: stop spread Free countries: early detection Preventive surveillance
- 5. Animal diseases control: SURVEILLANCE random sampling system Preventive surveillance
- 6. Animal diseases control: SURVEILLANCE massive expansion avian influenza TARGET SURVEILLANCE Risk assessment random sampling system Preventive EC 2010/367/EU surveillance
- 7. Animal diseases control: SURVEILLANCE TARGET SURVEILLANCE Risk assessment G.I.S. Spatial analysis: Exploring data Risk assessment Preventive Modelling diseases surveillance
- 8. HighlyPathogenicAvianInfluenza ( SubtypeH5N1) • Affected countries (2004-2010)
- 9. has killed ≈ 400 million domestic birds artsandopinion.com new.dpi.vic.gov.au Cbc.ca High economic losses ≈ ($20 billion) Social alarm :332 fatal human cases HighlyPathogenicAvianInfluenza ( SubtypeH5N1)
- 10. • has killed ≈ 400 million domestic birds The main difference... Natural reservoir Affected birds Has killed ≈ 15.000 waterbirds Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza ( Subtype H5N1)
- 11. In the last 4 years... Spread in Europe •Trade poultry •Migrationrouteswaterbirds HighlyPathogenicAvianInfluenza ( SubtypeH5N1)
- 12. Spatial analysis to identify risk areas of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza and to evaluate current strategy of health surveillance in Europe
- 13. Spatial analysis process: Modelling Data base Visualization Exploration Statistics Useful & efficient decision- Modelling making tool for different epidemiological situations in animal health
- 14. Data base Avian Influenza Avian Influenza Cases in domestic birds Cases in wildbirds Modelling with G.I.S. Domestic birds Wildbirds Census/farms/location Census/location
- 15. WHERE should we do an efficient surveillance of Avian Influenza in wildbirds??? TARGET SURVEILLANCE
- 16. Spatial analysis to identify risk areas of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in waterbirds
- 17. Importance of wetlands in spread of Avian _Influenza 1. Infected water represents a recognized mechanism for the virus transmission within waterbird populations 2. Wetlands concentrate many waterbirds species → Increasing the risk of infection
- 18. Modelizationof ENVIRONMENTAL RISK FACTOR for European WETLANDS Ramsar European Wetlands (Wetlands.org) Distances Avian influenza cases in wild birds (06-09) ! ( Ramsar wetland Wetlands Wildbirds outbreaks Outbreaks Infected wetlands “Positive wetland” Infected wetlands Europe 16Km • Analysis tools • Spatial analysis
- 19. Modelizationof ENVIRONMENTAL RISK FACTOR for European WETLANDS Water: Salinity, permanence organic or mineral soil, .... Study wetlands characteristics Land Use: Forestry, hunting, Agriculture, aquaculture,... Biological: Wintering birds area, Logistic regression species, important area for fish.. analysis •Mixosaline water •Forestry around wetland •Wintering waterbird area • Analysis tools • Spatial analysis Identification of risk factors • Logistic regression
- 20. Risk map for ocurrence of Avian Influenza in wildbirds Logistic regression model GERMANY ! Ramsar wetland ( 2009 Waterbird cases “Infected wetlands” Europa ROMANIA 2010 BULGARIA 2010 USEFUL INFORMATION • Spatial analysis: ON TARGET Kernel SURVEILLANCE
- 21. Aplication of the model a national level: Spain Logistic regression model Increased Nº wetlands •Wetlands Ramsar+Spanish Wetlands (NationalDatabase) Interpolate data model : IDW (Inverse Distance Weighting) Provinces Risk of model High: 0.83 Low:0.10 Survival by temperature analysis Adjust risk by climatic data ( temperature analysis) Survival curve • Geostatistical analysis: IDW
- 22. MCD Logistic regression model Multicriteria Decision: Salburua Wildbird case in Pais Vasco (2006) Almoguera Farm affected contact with wildbirds (2009) Provinces Risk values (October) October) High Low • Spatial analysis: Europe Math Risk of ocurrence of Avian Influenza in wildbirds
- 23. MCD Logistic regression model Multicriteria USEFUL Decision: INFORMATION IMPROVE SURVEILLANCE PLANS 2006 High Surveillance Areas Of the National surveillance Plan (Ministery Agriculture and Food) Provinces Risk values (October) October) High Low Europe Risk of ocurrence of Avian Influenza in wildbirds
- 24. Spatial analysis to EVALUATE current strategy in health surveillance in Europe.
- 25. Probability of ocurrence of Avian Influenza Test points Co-kriging Avian Influenza cases + co-variable Wetlands (>20.000 Waterbirds) • Geostatistical analysis: Co-kriging + co-variante Poultry density
- 26. Probability of ocurrence of Avian Influenza Co-kriging • Geostatistical analysis: Co-kriging
- 27. Probability of ocurrence of Avian Influenza Co-kriging USEFUL INFORMATION EVALUATE SURVEILLANCE STRATEGIES NL DE SP Sampling> Risk Avian Influenza $ • Geostatistical analysis: Co-kriging Sampling< Risk Avian Influenza $ • Spearman’s coefficient • Grubb’s test, P<0.01
- 28. CONCLUSIONS Spatial Analysis is an essential tool for Animal Health Veterinary Authorities and Organisations Help to take decisions for TARGET SURVEILLANCE (According to EC recommendations) Identify HOT SPOT of RISK Adequate control mesures Increase INFORMATION about dynamic of diseases improve PREVENTION & CONTROL PLANS Prevent or reduce consequences EVALUATE control and prevention strategies Reduce health costs and improve efficiency of veterinary intervention
- 29. Financial support: CC08-020, FAU2008-00001-C02-01 Laguna de Pitillas (Navarra) http://www.navarra.es/home_es/Actualidad/Informes