http://www.fao.org/ag/againfo/programmes/en/rinderpest/home.html
http://www-data.fao.org/ag/againfo/programmes/en/empres/event_200116.html
Presentation made during the international meeting titled “Maintaining global freedom from rinderpest” held in FAO-HQ from 20 to 22 January 2016.
Towards the development of optimal vaccination strategies for Rift Valley fev...ILRI
Presentated by Bernard Bett, John Gachohi, Catherine Karungo, Salome Bukachi, Nicholas Svitek, Kariuki Njenga and Harry Oyas at the inaugural International Veterinary Vaccinology Network meeting, Nairobi, Kenya, 26 March 2018.
Matt Allerson - Swine influenza virus prevalence and risk factors in weaning-...John Blue
Swine influenza virus prevalence and risk factors in weaning-age pigs - Matt Allerson, University of Minnesota, College of Veterinary Medicine, from the 2013 Allen D. Leman Swine Conference, September 14-17, 2013, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2013-leman-swine-conference-material
Dr. Amy Kinsley - Managing Complexity: Simplifying Assumptions of Foot-and-Mo...John Blue
Managing Complexity: Simplifying Assumptions of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Models for Swine - Dr. Amy Kinsley, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, from the 2017 Allen D. Leman Swine Conference, September 16-19, 2017, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2017-leman-swine-conference-material
Towards the development of optimal vaccination strategies for Rift Valley fev...ILRI
Presentated by Bernard Bett, John Gachohi, Catherine Karungo, Salome Bukachi, Nicholas Svitek, Kariuki Njenga and Harry Oyas at the inaugural International Veterinary Vaccinology Network meeting, Nairobi, Kenya, 26 March 2018.
Matt Allerson - Swine influenza virus prevalence and risk factors in weaning-...John Blue
Swine influenza virus prevalence and risk factors in weaning-age pigs - Matt Allerson, University of Minnesota, College of Veterinary Medicine, from the 2013 Allen D. Leman Swine Conference, September 14-17, 2013, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2013-leman-swine-conference-material
Dr. Amy Kinsley - Managing Complexity: Simplifying Assumptions of Foot-and-Mo...John Blue
Managing Complexity: Simplifying Assumptions of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Models for Swine - Dr. Amy Kinsley, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, from the 2017 Allen D. Leman Swine Conference, September 16-19, 2017, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2017-leman-swine-conference-material
Social dimensions of zoonoses in interdisciplinary researchNaomi Marks
Presentation by Dr Hayley MacGregor of the Institute of Development Studies, UK, at the One Health for the Real World: zoonoses, ecosystems and wellbeing symposium, 17-18 March 2016.
Reinforcement learning for context-dependent control of emergency outbreaks o...EuFMD
The 2018 Open Session of the EuFMD Standing Technical Committee was held in Borgo Egnazia - Italy, 29-31 October 2018 . The session theme was on global vaccine security
The European Commission for the Control of Foot-and-Mouth Disease (EuFMD), one of FAO’s oldest Commissions, came into being on the 12th June 1954, with the pledge of the sixth founding member state to the principles of a coordinated and common action against Foot-and-mouth Disease.
A mathematical model for Rift Valley fever transmission dynamicsNaomi Marks
Presentation by Dr Bernard Bett of the International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, at the One Health for the Real World: zoonoses, ecosystems and wellbeing symposium, London 17-18 March 2016
Ensuring successful introduction of Wolbachia in natural populations of Aedes...FGV Brazil
The control of the spread of dengue fever by introduction of the intracellular parasitic bacterium Wolbachia in populations of the vector Aedes aegypti, is presently one of the most promising tools for eliminating dengue, in the absence of an efficient vaccine. The success of this operation requires locally careful planning to determine the adequate number of individuals carrying the wolbachia parasite that need to be introduced into the natural population. The introduced mosquitoes are expected to eventually replace the Wolbachia-free population and guarantee permanent protection against the transmission of dengue to human. In this study, we propose and analyze a model describing the fundamental aspects of the competition between mosquitoes carrying Wolbachia and mosquitoes free of the parasite. We then use feedback control techniques to devise an introduction protocol which is proved to guarantee that the population converges to a stable equilibrium where the totality of mosquitoes carry Wolbachia.
Date: 2015-03-19
Authors:
Bliman, Pierre-Alexandre
Soledad Aronna, Maria
Coelho, Flávio Codeço
Silva, Moacyr da
Healthy animals for healthy lives in low- and middle-income countriesILRI
Presented by Hung Nguyen, Vish Nene, Delia Grace Randolph, Silvia Alonso, Charity Kinyua, Nicholas Svitek, Elise Schieck, Bernard Bett, Fred Unger, Hussein Abkallo, Kristina Roesel and Sinh Dang-Xuan at the Tropentag 2021―Towards shifting paradigms in agriculture for a healthy and sustainable future, 15-17 September 2021
Land use, biodiversity changes and the risk of zoonotic diseases: Findings fr...ILRI
Presented by B. Bett, M. Said, R. Sang, S. Bukachi, J. Lindahl, S. Wanyoike, E. Ontiri, I. Njeru, J. Karanja, F. Wanyoike, D. Mbotha and D. Grace at the 49th Kenya Veterinary Association annual scientific conference, Busia, Kenya, 22-25 April 2015.
Dr. Luiza Roos - Mycoplasma Hyopneumoniae Control: Investigating The Gilt Acc...John Blue
Mycoplasma Hyopneumoniae Control: Investigating The Gilt Acclimation Alternative - Dr. Luiza Roos, from the 2015 Allen D. Leman Swine Conference, September 19-22, 2015, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2015-leman-swine-conference-material
PATH Malaria Vaccine Initiative's (MVI) presentation at the 2009 Partnering for Cures meeting in New York. MVI's mission is to accelerate the development of malaria vaccines and ensure their availability and accessibility in the developing world.
Insect Modeling by Muhammad Qasim, Aroj BashirMuhammad Qasim
Insect Modeling are used for a variety of purposes from study of the dynamics of the Insect population, determine the importance of factors of regulating of population, individual development of insects and future projections of insect development
Dr. Amy Kinsley - Managing Complexity: Simplifying Assumptions of Foot-and-Mo...John Blue
Managing Complexity: Simplifying Assumptions of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Models for Swine - Dr. Amy Kinsley, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, from the 2017 Allen D. Leman Swine Conference, September 16-19, 2017, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2017-leman-swine-conference-material
Social dimensions of zoonoses in interdisciplinary researchNaomi Marks
Presentation by Dr Hayley MacGregor of the Institute of Development Studies, UK, at the One Health for the Real World: zoonoses, ecosystems and wellbeing symposium, 17-18 March 2016.
Reinforcement learning for context-dependent control of emergency outbreaks o...EuFMD
The 2018 Open Session of the EuFMD Standing Technical Committee was held in Borgo Egnazia - Italy, 29-31 October 2018 . The session theme was on global vaccine security
The European Commission for the Control of Foot-and-Mouth Disease (EuFMD), one of FAO’s oldest Commissions, came into being on the 12th June 1954, with the pledge of the sixth founding member state to the principles of a coordinated and common action against Foot-and-mouth Disease.
A mathematical model for Rift Valley fever transmission dynamicsNaomi Marks
Presentation by Dr Bernard Bett of the International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, at the One Health for the Real World: zoonoses, ecosystems and wellbeing symposium, London 17-18 March 2016
Ensuring successful introduction of Wolbachia in natural populations of Aedes...FGV Brazil
The control of the spread of dengue fever by introduction of the intracellular parasitic bacterium Wolbachia in populations of the vector Aedes aegypti, is presently one of the most promising tools for eliminating dengue, in the absence of an efficient vaccine. The success of this operation requires locally careful planning to determine the adequate number of individuals carrying the wolbachia parasite that need to be introduced into the natural population. The introduced mosquitoes are expected to eventually replace the Wolbachia-free population and guarantee permanent protection against the transmission of dengue to human. In this study, we propose and analyze a model describing the fundamental aspects of the competition between mosquitoes carrying Wolbachia and mosquitoes free of the parasite. We then use feedback control techniques to devise an introduction protocol which is proved to guarantee that the population converges to a stable equilibrium where the totality of mosquitoes carry Wolbachia.
Date: 2015-03-19
Authors:
Bliman, Pierre-Alexandre
Soledad Aronna, Maria
Coelho, Flávio Codeço
Silva, Moacyr da
Healthy animals for healthy lives in low- and middle-income countriesILRI
Presented by Hung Nguyen, Vish Nene, Delia Grace Randolph, Silvia Alonso, Charity Kinyua, Nicholas Svitek, Elise Schieck, Bernard Bett, Fred Unger, Hussein Abkallo, Kristina Roesel and Sinh Dang-Xuan at the Tropentag 2021―Towards shifting paradigms in agriculture for a healthy and sustainable future, 15-17 September 2021
Land use, biodiversity changes and the risk of zoonotic diseases: Findings fr...ILRI
Presented by B. Bett, M. Said, R. Sang, S. Bukachi, J. Lindahl, S. Wanyoike, E. Ontiri, I. Njeru, J. Karanja, F. Wanyoike, D. Mbotha and D. Grace at the 49th Kenya Veterinary Association annual scientific conference, Busia, Kenya, 22-25 April 2015.
Dr. Luiza Roos - Mycoplasma Hyopneumoniae Control: Investigating The Gilt Acc...John Blue
Mycoplasma Hyopneumoniae Control: Investigating The Gilt Acclimation Alternative - Dr. Luiza Roos, from the 2015 Allen D. Leman Swine Conference, September 19-22, 2015, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2015-leman-swine-conference-material
PATH Malaria Vaccine Initiative's (MVI) presentation at the 2009 Partnering for Cures meeting in New York. MVI's mission is to accelerate the development of malaria vaccines and ensure their availability and accessibility in the developing world.
Insect Modeling by Muhammad Qasim, Aroj BashirMuhammad Qasim
Insect Modeling are used for a variety of purposes from study of the dynamics of the Insect population, determine the importance of factors of regulating of population, individual development of insects and future projections of insect development
Dr. Amy Kinsley - Managing Complexity: Simplifying Assumptions of Foot-and-Mo...John Blue
Managing Complexity: Simplifying Assumptions of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Models for Swine - Dr. Amy Kinsley, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, from the 2017 Allen D. Leman Swine Conference, September 16-19, 2017, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2017-leman-swine-conference-material
Modelling management strategies for vaccinated animals after an outbreak of F...EuFMD
The European Commission for the Control of Foot-and-Mouth Disease (EuFMD), one of FAO’s oldest Commissions, came into being on the 12th June 1954, with the pledge of the sixth founding member state to the principles of a coordinated and common action against Foot-and-mouth Disease.
Dr. Jim Logan - Emergency Response Preparedness: Considerations for the Small...John Blue
Emergency Response Preparedness: Considerations for the Small Ruminant Industry - Dr. Jim Logan, State Veterinarian, Wyoming Livestock Board, from the 2016 NIAA Annual Conference: From Farm to Table - Food System Biosecurity for Animal Agriculture, April 4-7, 2016, Kansas City, MO, USA.
More presentations at http://www.trufflemedia.com/agmedia/conference/2016_niaa_farm_table_food_system_biosecurity
Dr. James A. Roth - FMD Vaccination: Preparedness, Availability, and LimitationsJohn Blue
FMD Vaccination: Preparedness, Availability, and Limitations - James Roth, DVM, Director, Center for Food Security and Public Health and Executive Director, Institute for International Cooperation in Animal Biologics, Iowa State University, from the 2014 NIAA Annual Conference titled 'The Precautionary Principle: How Agriculture Will Thrive', March 31 - April 2, 2014, Omaha, NE, USA.
More presentations at http://www.trufflemedia.com/agmedia/conference/2014_niaa_how_animal_agriculture_will_thrive
Foot and mouth disease preventive and epidemiological aspectsBhoj Raj Singh
FMD: Menace in India
Discusses problems of FMD Control in India like:
Lack of faith in farmers and veterinarians that FMD can be controlled with vaccination (due to repeated failure of vaccines in quality and vaccination failures resulting in FMD outbreaks).
Lack of infrastructure facilities for maintaining the cold chain and efficient transport to the vaccination site.
Lack of human resources for handling/ vaccinating livestock.
Needs for further researches on diagnosis (Pen-side), disinfection, vaccines and vaccination (affording at least a year immunity, quality vaccine etc.) and control strategies.
No-timely investigation or excessively delayed investigation of FMD outbreaks especially those occurring after vaccination.
Transparency in vaccine quality monitoring and vaccine purchases.
Fear in veterinarians for reporting FMD in their area of operation.
False statistics of the disease and vaccination.
No legal punitive action against suppliers of substandard FMD vaccines even after the supply of multiple substandard batches of vaccine.
Secure Pork Supply - Dr. James Roth, Iowa State University, from the 2013 World Pork Expo, June 5 - 7, 2013, Des Moines, IA, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2013-world-pork-expo
Introduction of African swine fever activities in VietnamILRI
Presentation by Hu Suk Lee at an international workshop on veterinary epidemiology hosted by the Animal and Plant Quarantine Agency, Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, South Korea, 17 June 2020.
Similar to Modelling to support rinderpest outbreaks preparedness (20)
Item 9: Soil mapping to support sustainable agricultureExternalEvents
SOIL ATLAS OF ASIA
2ND EDITORIAL BOARD MEETING
RURAL DEVELOPMENT ADMINISTRATION, NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES,
JEONJU, REPUBLIC OF KOREA | 29 APRIL – 3 MAY 2019
Markus Anda (Indonesia)
Item 8: WRB, World Reference Base for Soil ResoucesExternalEvents
SOIL ATLAS OF ASIA
2ND EDITORIAL BOARD MEETING
RURAL DEVELOPMENT ADMINISTRATION, NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES,
JEONJU, REPUBLIC OF KOREA | 29 APRIL – 3 MAY 2019
Satira Udomsri (Thailand)
SOIL ATLAS OF ASIA
2ND EDITORIAL BOARD MEETING
RURAL DEVELOPMENT ADMINISTRATION, NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES,
JEONJU, REPUBLIC OF KOREA | 29 APRIL – 3 MAY 2019
Shree Prasad Vista (Nepal)
Item 6: International Center for Biosaline AgricultureExternalEvents
SOIL ATLAS OF ASIA
2ND EDITORIAL BOARD MEETING
RURAL DEVELOPMENT ADMINISTRATION, NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES,
JEONJU, REPUBLIC OF KOREA | 29 APRIL – 3 MAY 2019
We all have good and bad thoughts from time to time and situation to situation. We are bombarded daily with spiraling thoughts(both negative and positive) creating all-consuming feel , making us difficult to manage with associated suffering. Good thoughts are like our Mob Signal (Positive thought) amidst noise(negative thought) in the atmosphere. Negative thoughts like noise outweigh positive thoughts. These thoughts often create unwanted confusion, trouble, stress and frustration in our mind as well as chaos in our physical world. Negative thoughts are also known as “distorted thinking”.
Model Attribute Check Company Auto PropertyCeline George
In Odoo, the multi-company feature allows you to manage multiple companies within a single Odoo database instance. Each company can have its own configurations while still sharing common resources such as products, customers, and suppliers.
Ethnobotany and Ethnopharmacology:
Ethnobotany in herbal drug evaluation,
Impact of Ethnobotany in traditional medicine,
New development in herbals,
Bio-prospecting tools for drug discovery,
Role of Ethnopharmacology in drug evaluation,
Reverse Pharmacology.
The Roman Empire A Historical Colossus.pdfkaushalkr1407
The Roman Empire, a vast and enduring power, stands as one of history's most remarkable civilizations, leaving an indelible imprint on the world. It emerged from the Roman Republic, transitioning into an imperial powerhouse under the leadership of Augustus Caesar in 27 BCE. This transformation marked the beginning of an era defined by unprecedented territorial expansion, architectural marvels, and profound cultural influence.
The empire's roots lie in the city of Rome, founded, according to legend, by Romulus in 753 BCE. Over centuries, Rome evolved from a small settlement to a formidable republic, characterized by a complex political system with elected officials and checks on power. However, internal strife, class conflicts, and military ambitions paved the way for the end of the Republic. Julius Caesar’s dictatorship and subsequent assassination in 44 BCE created a power vacuum, leading to a civil war. Octavian, later Augustus, emerged victorious, heralding the Roman Empire’s birth.
Under Augustus, the empire experienced the Pax Romana, a 200-year period of relative peace and stability. Augustus reformed the military, established efficient administrative systems, and initiated grand construction projects. The empire's borders expanded, encompassing territories from Britain to Egypt and from Spain to the Euphrates. Roman legions, renowned for their discipline and engineering prowess, secured and maintained these vast territories, building roads, fortifications, and cities that facilitated control and integration.
The Roman Empire’s society was hierarchical, with a rigid class system. At the top were the patricians, wealthy elites who held significant political power. Below them were the plebeians, free citizens with limited political influence, and the vast numbers of slaves who formed the backbone of the economy. The family unit was central, governed by the paterfamilias, the male head who held absolute authority.
Culturally, the Romans were eclectic, absorbing and adapting elements from the civilizations they encountered, particularly the Greeks. Roman art, literature, and philosophy reflected this synthesis, creating a rich cultural tapestry. Latin, the Roman language, became the lingua franca of the Western world, influencing numerous modern languages.
Roman architecture and engineering achievements were monumental. They perfected the arch, vault, and dome, constructing enduring structures like the Colosseum, Pantheon, and aqueducts. These engineering marvels not only showcased Roman ingenuity but also served practical purposes, from public entertainment to water supply.
2024.06.01 Introducing a competency framework for languag learning materials ...Sandy Millin
http://sandymillin.wordpress.com/iateflwebinar2024
Published classroom materials form the basis of syllabuses, drive teacher professional development, and have a potentially huge influence on learners, teachers and education systems. All teachers also create their own materials, whether a few sentences on a blackboard, a highly-structured fully-realised online course, or anything in between. Despite this, the knowledge and skills needed to create effective language learning materials are rarely part of teacher training, and are mostly learnt by trial and error.
Knowledge and skills frameworks, generally called competency frameworks, for ELT teachers, trainers and managers have existed for a few years now. However, until I created one for my MA dissertation, there wasn’t one drawing together what we need to know and do to be able to effectively produce language learning materials.
This webinar will introduce you to my framework, highlighting the key competencies I identified from my research. It will also show how anybody involved in language teaching (any language, not just English!), teacher training, managing schools or developing language learning materials can benefit from using the framework.
Operation “Blue Star” is the only event in the history of Independent India where the state went into war with its own people. Even after about 40 years it is not clear if it was culmination of states anger over people of the region, a political game of power or start of dictatorial chapter in the democratic setup.
The people of Punjab felt alienated from main stream due to denial of their just demands during a long democratic struggle since independence. As it happen all over the word, it led to militant struggle with great loss of lives of military, police and civilian personnel. Killing of Indira Gandhi and massacre of innocent Sikhs in Delhi and other India cities was also associated with this movement.
How to Create Map Views in the Odoo 17 ERPCeline George
The map views are useful for providing a geographical representation of data. They allow users to visualize and analyze the data in a more intuitive manner.
Modelling to support rinderpest outbreaks preparedness
1. Name Benjamin McMahonName Benjamin McMahon
Title Scientist at Los Alamos National LaboratoryTitle Scientist at Los Alamos National Laboratory
Country USACountry USA
2. Modeling tool to support rinderpest
outbreak preparedness
Benjamin McMahon, Paul Fenimore, Judy
Mourant, Nick Hengartner, Carrie Manore, Mira
Dimitrijevic, Paul Rossiter, Samia Metwally
Los Alamos National Laboratory, FAO
3. Past rinderpest outbreaks
• Ethiopia, 1890, 90% cattle mortality
• Zimbabwe 1896, 90% mortality
• South Africa 1895-1896, 66.6% of 1.6 million cattle died or
slaughtered
• Nigeria and Chad basin 1982-84, 2 million deaths?
• Tanzania and Kenya, 1964-1968. Wildebeest population
increases from 250,000 to >1million after eradication of
rinderpest from cattle
• Pakistan, 1992, 40,000-50,000 cattle
4. Our motivation for modeling tool
- Quantify potential impact and motivate virus destruction & sequestration
- Significant stocks of rinderpest virus are maintained under laboratory
conditions for responding to contingencies (outbreaks) and research.
- These stocks create a potential risk for re-initiation of rinderpest infections.
- Historical outbreaks in cattle need to be considered carefully when
predicting the course of potential future outbreaks because of changes in:
- The level of pre-existing immunity
- The density and type (dairy, range, transported) of cattle
- The availability of surveillance and mitigations, such as:
- Vaccination
- Short range movement controls and hygiene
- Long range movement controls
- Culling
5. A rinderpest outbreak could be devastating:
Simulated spread of rinderpest in 101 days after point introduction to USA
Manore, McMahon, Fair, Hyman, Brown, & Labute, “Disease properties, geography, and mitigation
strategies in a simulation spread of rinderpest across the United States” Vet. Res., 42:1 (2011).
6. What modeling can and cannot do
• Modeling can:
– Translate historical events to contemporary situations, using best
available understanding of how diseases progress
– Provide specific numbers and their dependencies, to guide planning
• Modeling cannot:
– Predict the future. The actual course of the epidemic depends on
preparedness measures, responses, the particular viral strain, and
random events
7. Determinants of disease spread Frequency of long
and short range
cattle movement
I
S
S
S
S
S
FAO modeled
cattle density
5 km spatial resolution, from
http://www.fao.org/3/a-a1259e.pdf
8. Comparing types of mitigation
NumberofCountiesInfected
General impact of three types of mitigation
Time (days)
No Control
Movement Control
Vaccination
Culling
9. Disease progression rates determine required
timescale of intervention (a couple of weeks).
S = Susceptible
E = Exposed (incubating)
I = Infectious
H = Seriously diseased
D = Dead
R = Recovered (Immune)
VS= Vaccinated,
still susceptible
V = Vaccinated, immune
S E I H D
RVVS
Disease progression scheme
10. The planning tool http://bsvepi.lanl.gov/rinderpest
(password protected)
11. Phases of epidemic
1. Exponential growth (R0=5)
2. Short-range movement
controls and hygiene
measures
3. Plus vaccination
4. Long-range spread
5. Control
6. Eradication
Eradication
Control
12. Mitigations
Infectivity
(β * 5 days = R0 ~ 5)
Number of sick cattle when epidemic is identified
(25 cows)
Further delay and effectiveness of short-range movement restrictions & hygiene
(7 days, β cut in half)
Further delay and rate of vaccination
(4 weeks, 10,000 cattle / day)
Extent of long-range cattle trade occurring, and screening by illness
(0.15% cattle not seriously ill moved per day)
Total dead cattle = 885 cows
Vaccine doses given = 315,000 doses
Area affected by epidemic = 17,000 km2
Time to epidemic peak = 10 weeks
Time to eradication = 17 weeks
Consequence metrics
An example epidemic:
16. Further observations
• Long-range transport of animals has been added to model, with user-selected
destination and number of healthy animals moved. Infectious animals can be
selected from Incubating, Ill, and seriously ill fractions.
• Mixing lengths in model can account for differences between, for example,
dairy and range cattle.
• Virulent strains of rinderpest have a mortality rate of 80% and R0 ~ 5.
• Less virulent strains of rinderpest have lower mortality rate and R0.
• It is possible that naïve populations of cattle select for virulent strains as an
epidemic progresses.
• Studies of the 2001 FMD epidemic in Britain suggest short range movement
controls and hygiene measures can decrease R0 by a factor two.
• The calculations here were for cattle densities of ~150 cattle / km2
.
17. How to use this tool for planning
• Account for local variations in transmissibility, vaccination
rate, distance range of spread, long-range transmission,
escape from laboratory, movement controls.
• Convert estimates of dead and vaccinated cattle, duration
and geographic extent of epidemic and nature of control
measures into costs.
• Estimate required attributes of surveillance system to rapidly
identify epidemic, and the corresponding needed size of
vaccine stockpile.
• Balance cost of preparedness against acceptance of risk.
18. Conclusions & Acknowledgement
• We have provided a planning tool which provides
considerable flexibility in simulating a rinderpest outbreak
and mitigations
• It needs to be developed and validated in a country-specific
manner, in a collaboration between each country and FAO
• The earlier an outbreak is halted, the better.